climate and the economy - beauty and the beast

Climate and the Economy:Beauty and the Beast

Symposium on Climate Change and the EconomyGuy Dauncey, Duncan, March 2017

The Beast = The Economy= Mechanistic, reductionist thinking

The Prince = The New Economy= Holistic, systems thinking

Beauty = Nature, Holocene Climate

Homo Economicus

Climate Change?

It’s all justhot air

December 2016

The last time the world was 3C warmer,the sea level was 25 metres higher.

The Guardian, March 22, 2016

Cowichan Estuary 0 metres sea-level rise

flood.firetree.net

2 metres sea-level rise

Vancouver 0 Metres Sea-Level Rise

We must change our future story

from negative to positive,

from fear and worry

to hope and determination.

The Economics of Self-Interest

Homo Economicus

$$$$

Rational

RationalSelf-interested

RationalSelf-interestedMaximizing capital gain

RationalSelf-interestedMaximizing capital gainIgnoring externalities

RationalSelf-interestedMaximizing capital gainIgnoring externalitiesProduce!

RationalSelf-interestedMaximizing capital gainIgnoring externalitiesProduce!Consume!

RationalSelf-interestedMaximizing capital gainIgnoring externalitiesProduce!Consume!Grow!

RationalSelf-interestedMaximizing capital gainIgnoring externalitiesProduce!Consume!Grow!REPEAT…..

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com


GDP =GrossDepletion of the

Planet

How to Kiss the Beast

1. Launch a Creative Engagement with the community to discuss the climate crisis,

and seek solutions

2. Tackle ecological ignorance. Starting with VIU, require that starting in 2020,

every entry student and new professor must have passed a course in Ecology 101.

3. Set a regional district goal to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2040

4a. Persuade 100 local businesses to attain Vancouver Island Green Business Certification

by 2020, 1000 by 2030, all by 2040

4b. Persuade 50 local businesses to become Benefit Corporations by 2020, 500 by 2030, all by 2040

5. Adopt a goal for 25% of local farms to be organic by 2020, 50% by 2030, 100% by 2040

6. Find ways to increase vegetarian diet, and reduce the local consumption of industrial meat and dairy

7. Work to restore 25% of local forests to an old growth restoration trajectory by 2020,

50% by 2030, 100% by 2040

8. Adopt a plan for the whole regional economy to become a restorative economy by 2040

9. Stay really engaged in climate impact preparation and mitigation

10. Persuade all other regional districts on Vancouver Island to adopt the same goals

A Roadmap for Rapid DecarbonizationScience, March 24 2017

1. Launch a Creative Engagement with the community to discuss the climate crisis,

and seek solutions

It will take everyone – non-profits, service clubs, schools, colleges,

businesses, banks, governments

We need to organize togetherso that we can flourish in harmony with each other

and with Nature.

Unity in Diversity, Shared Purpose

Environmental groups Food and gardening groups First Nations Youth groups Local government Local businessesSchools Churches Community groups Political organizations Chamber of Commerce Service clubs Regional District

Local college

2. TACKLE ECOLOGICAL IGNORANCE. Starting with VIU, require that starting in 2020,

every entry student and new professor must have passed a course in

ECOLOGY 101

Before Ecology 101

After Ecology 101

After Ecology 101

Candidates for School BoardsNew teachers, school board staff

Candidates for municipal electionsCandidates for provincial, federal elections

Candidates for non-profit leadershipUVic, Camosun, Royal Roads, North Island College

3. Set a regional district goal to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2040

Farewell and Thank You, Fossil Fuels

Welcome, Solar Age!

GUSSING, AUSTRIAis ALREADY

100% RENEWABLE

The City of COPENHAGENvoted to BECOME

100% CARBON NEUTRAL by 2025

The City of OSLOvoted to REDUCE its GHGs

By 95% by 2030

CITY OF FRANKFURTvoted to go

100% RENEWABLE by 2050

CITY OF VANCOUVERvoted to go

100% RENEWABLE before 2050

CITY OF VICTORIAvoted to go

100% RENEWABLE by 2050

DISTRICT OF SAANICHjust voted to move toward100% RENEWABLE by 2050

Might DUNCANvote to go

100% RENEWABLE before 2050?

Might NORTH COWICHANvote to go


Might the CVRDvote to go


Almost Twice as Many Green Jobs in Canada

By Guy Dauncey

800,000 fossil fuel jobs lost 1,000,000 green energy jobs gained

Transportation with 100% Renewable Energy

www.tonystrailers.com

Where cars dominates, people connect less. Less sense of neighbourhood.

With people-inspired urban design, people connect. More sense of neighbourhood.

Which do you prefer… THIS?

Or THIS?

Barcelona is moving ALL buses to100% electric by 2020

So why not here too?Montreal – 100% electric buses by 2025

China – 40,000 new electric buses every year

Bio-methane from Bristol's sewage treatment (UK) 300 km on a tank of gas.

Well-to-wheel, biomethane produces 95% less CO2 than diesel

2nd hand Nissan Leaf: $17,000www.motorizevictoria.ca

The falling price of EV batteries

By 2025, Holland is preparing to permit the sale of ONLY electric cars

Building Heat with 100% Renewable Energy

Passive Houses, Victoria90% reduced heat loss

Brussels, BelgiumSince 2015, all new buildings and retrofits are

required to be Nearly-Zero Energy, based on the Passive House Standard.

4a. Persuade 100 local businesses to attain Vancouver Island Green Business Certification

by 2020, 1000 by 2030, all by 2040

Green Business Certification

4b. Persuade 50 local businesses to become Benefit Corporations by 2020, 500 by 2030, all by 2040

Benefit Corporations

B Corporations Vancouver Island

5. Adopt a goal for 25% of local farms to be organic by 2020, 50% by 2030, 100% by 2040

Organic yields match conventional yields.Outperform conventional in years of drought.Organic

farming uses 45% less energy.Produces 40% fewer greenhouse gases.Is more profitable than conventional

farming.Rodale Institute, 30-year trials.

Zero-till, conservation farming and organic farming could sequestrate 50 GT of carbon

from the atmosphere. - Rattan Lal

All organic farms protect their bees

Local Food with 100% Renewable Energyplus added carbon storage!

6. Find ways to eat more vegetarian, and reduce the consumption of industrial meat and dairy


The livestock industry – meat & dairy – is causing 15% of global warming

Who, - me?

100% Delicious Vegetarian Food

7. Work to restore 25% of local forests to an old growth restoration trajectory by 2020,

50% by 2030, 100% by 2040

Global Deforestation

1.5 Gigatonnes of carbon a year

Klanawa Valley, Vancouver Island TJ Watt

Merv Wilkinson at Wildwood

Second growth forest, needs thinning

Wildwood Forest with added carbon storage

8. Adopt a strategy for the whole regional economy to become a restorative economy by 2040

The transition from a capitalist economy to a green, entrepreneurial cooperative economy

could be one of the defining achievements of the 21st century.

The Economics of Kindness

Homo Economicus Homo Amicus

The Eight Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy


Ecological

Wealth


Ecological

Wealth

IndividualAgency


Ecological

Wealth

Trust


Ecological

Wealth

Trust

Future

Faith

in the


Ecological

Wealth

Trust

Future

Faith

in the

Cultural wealth


Ecological

Wealth

Trust

Future

Faith

in the

Cultural wealth

Communitywealth


Ecological

Wealth

Trust

Future

Faith

in the

Cultural wealth

Communitywealth

Publicwealth

The Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy

Ecological

Wealth

Trust

Future

Faith

in the

Cultural wealth

Communitywealth

Publicwealth

Privatewealth

Green Space

Great Schools

Social Space

AffordableChildcare

Solar Energy

Community Wealth

A SharingEconomy

Urban Food

Work-sharing

Citizens Income

AffordableHousing

Free Post-Sec Education

Great Public Transport Bike Lanes

Social Business Social Banking

A CooperativeEconomy

A Circular Economy

Kate RaworthOxfam Economist

A CVRD Regional Sustainability Meeting in 2020

9. Stay really engaged in climate impact preparation and mitigation

10. Persuade all other regional districts on Vancouver Island to adopt the same goals

A self-interested‘homo economicus’

economy

A common good‘homo amicus’

economy

A Vancouver Island Sustainability Gatheringin 2021

A Roadmap for Rapid DecarbonizationScience, March 24 2017

“A fabulous book … a sweeping vision”

– James Hansen, NASA

“A joyous, hope-filled manual.”- Bill McKibben

350.org

The Biggest Global Climate Solution You Have Never Heard Of

WORLD FUTURE COUNCIL

Chief EconomistWorld Future Council

Massive acceleration to achieve 100% renewable energy needs an investment of

$1.5 to $2 trillion a year. $300 billion a year is needed in public grants.

Chief EconomistWorld Future Council

“Climate change initiatives offer a $5-7 trillion funding opportunity for capital markets.”

Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England

Established to keep the global temperature increase below 2°C by investing in

low-emission climate-resilient development.

Advanced economies have agreed to mobilize $100 billion a year by 2020,

but only $10 billion has been raised so far.

Where does new money come from?

A. Is it printed by the Central Banks, reflecting the quantity of gold in reserves? NO.



B. Is it created by Private Banks based on their fractional reserves? YES, kind of.



B. Is it created by Private Banks based on their fractional reserves? YES, kind of.

C. Is it created by Central Banks out of thin air, social trust? YES.


“The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled.”

- John Kenneth Galbraith

New money is not created out of thin air, but out of shared social trust.

Public TRUST…

Public TRUST…Allows money creation…

Public TRUST…Allows money creation…Allows banking…

The Bank of Gandalf can create money out of thin air because of social trust.

Quantitative Easing

Quantitative Easing for the Climate

The World’s Central Banks

Issues $300 billion a year in Green Climate Bonds


World’s Central Banks create

$300 billion a year to buy the bonds


World’s Central Banks create

$300 billion a year to buy the bonds

$300 billion a year

Distributes $300 Billion a year as leverage to attract

private capital

Distributes $300 Billion a year as leverage to attract

private capital

which invests $1.2 trillion a year

in renewable energy and climate solutions

Not an inflationary riskGlobal economic output: $80 trillion a year

Global Central Banks Climate Stimulus$300 billion a year

0.375% monetary increase a year

Collapse is Possible

A Great Transition is Possible

Climate and the Economy:Beauty and the Beast

www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey

“Brilliant!”- David Suzuki

“A tour-de-force”- Tzeporah Berman