Climate and Marine Protected AreasIMPACT ProjectIMPACT Project

Catherine Marzin1, Karsten Shein2, Tess Brandon3, Doug Pirhalla4, Brian Keller1, Jim Hendee5

(1) NOS/ONMS; (2) NESDIS/NCDC; (3) NESDIS/NODC; (4) NOS/NCCOS; (5) OAR/AOML

Climate and MPA workshop • 11-13 January, 2010 • AOML, Miami, FL

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Climate Change as Threat

• Continued global warmingwill …– Bleach corals– Favor invasive species– Force geographic shifts in species

populations– Contribute to mass mortality

episodes– Impact human lives and property

Assessments and planning• USGCRP Climate Change Impacts on the

United States: Coastal and Marine Resources– “Marine populations and ecosystems have been

highly responsive to climate variability.”

• White House Ocean Policy Task Force: Interim Framework for Effective Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning (Jan 2010)– “Places science-based information at the heart of

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USGCRP: Climate Change Impacts on the United States: Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change on Coastal Areas and Marine Resources (2001)

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What factors are involved?What factors are involved?• Thermal stress• Acidification• Salinity• Mechanical stress• Opacity

– Sedimentation– Biomass– turbidity

• Pollutants– Pathogens– Nutrients– Contaminants

• Invasive species

All can be related to climate and climate change …

Image credit: U. MD Ctr. for Environmental Sci. Horn Pt. Lab

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How might climate affect these factors?How might climate affect these factors?

• Temperature• Precipitation• Radiation• Wind• Cloudiness• Pressure• Trace Gases• Other ?

But “How”

• In order to understand the future, we must first understand the past.

• Baseline climatologies

• Quantification of changes in space and time• So what?

- If we know climate is changing – what can we do?• Short term (monitoring, stress-reduction)• Long term (mitigation, adaptation, marine spatial planning)

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Tropical Cyclones• Can have significant impact on near-shore marine

ecosystems.• Systematic changes in path, intensity and timing

are important to identify and understand.• Are certain areas seeing increased or decreased

vulnerability to storm strikes?

A brief example …

• Will earlier or later storms have greater impact on unsuspecting ecosystems?

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Hurricane Tracks near the FKNMS (1998-2008)

Thanks to J. Schittone (ONMS) for the graphic.

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Atlantic/Caribbean TC Season

A matter of scale

• Most climate change information is based on coarse-resolution aggregations.

• Localized variations and influences may be far different.

• To address these local-scale behaviors we must develop climate resources at these finer scales.

South Florida Protected AreasRookery Bay

NERR

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Met stations around the FKNMS

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• Hourly data• Daily data• Monthly data

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Integrated Marine Protected Area Climate Tool (IMPACT)

Integrated Marine Protected Area Climate Tool (IMPACT)

– Climate reference baseline• Normals, extremes, ranges,

probabilities, etc.• Context of biological resources

– Better address climate and climate change impacts

– Determine spatial and temporal variability of favorable and unfavorable climatic conditions.

– Understand ecological response to climate change

– Climate tool for MPA managers

• Work to develop climatologies of marine protected areas.

Towering cumulus over FKNMS

Status to date

• Team building• Preliminary data discussions– Needs and inventory

• SARP grant application• This workshop

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Thank You

Karsten SheinNOAA National Climatic Data Center

151 Patton AveAsheville, NC 28801

828.271.4223Karsten.Shein@noaa.gov

Catherine MarzinNOAA National Marine Sanctuaries Program1305 East West Hwy SSMC4Silver Spring, MD 20910301-713-3125 x-257Catherine.Marzin@noaa.gov