Climate and Health Country Profiles

Corinne Le Quéré,

Professor of Climate Change Science and Policy, University of East Anglia,

Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Lead Author, IPCC WGI.

Special thanks to Clare Goodess and Colin Harpham, Climatic Research Unit, UEA

1900

atmospheric CO2 concentration

Data: Scripps/NOAA-ESRL

1960 1980 2000 300

320

340

360

380

400

Year

400 ppm

global temperature

par

ts p

er m

illio

n (

pp

m)

+1°C

1960 1980 2000

Year

1940 1920 1880 1860

Data: HadCRUT4

deg

ree

Cel

siu

s

0.5

0.0

−0.5

El Niño

Pinatubo eruption

Latest trends on atmospheric CO2 and temperature

Year

Source: Fuss et al 2014; CDIAC; Global Carbon Budget 2014; IPCC WGI & WGIII scenario database

Emissions need to decrease to near zero to achieve climate stabilisation

consistent with 2°C limit

high-risk climate future

Year

Paris country pledges

pathways consistent with countries INDC before

Paris COP21 Source: growth above 2010 from

UNFCCC

Source: Fuss et al 2014; CDIAC; Global Carbon Budget 2014; IPCC WGI & WGIII scenario database

Emissions need to decrease to near zero to achieve climate stabilisation

consistent with 2°C limit

high-risk climate future

Year

Paris country pledges

pathways consistent with countries INDC before

Paris COP21 Source: growth above 2010 from

UNFCCC

Source: Fuss et al 2014; CDIAC; Global Carbon Budget 2014; IPCC WGI & WGIII scenario database

Emissions need to decrease to near zero to achieve climate stabilisation

consistent with 2°C limit

high-risk climate future

most hazards caused by climate change will persist for many centuries

What do climate projections mean for us?

Source: IPCC WGI

precipitation change temperature change

warm spells

heavy precipitation

extreme high sea level

past and projected changes in extreme weather events Source: IPCC WGI

What do climate projections mean for us?

processing of the data and model projections example of Bangladesh

1900 2050 2100

Year

2000 1950 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

01

02

03

04

05

0

Bangladesh

01

02

03

04

05

0

R20mm

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

02

04

060

80

Bangladesh

02

04

060

80 R20mm

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

010

20

30

40

50

60

70

Bangladesh

010

20

30

40

50

60

70

R20mm

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

010

20

30

40

50

60

70

Bangladesh

010

20

30

40

50

60

70

R20mm

1. Bangladesh average from ~20 models

2. Bias correction of mean using observations

3. 30 year smooth to remove natural variability

4. Observations to 2010 (for extremes) or 2013 (for mean T)

5. Consistency check

Days with extreme rainfall (‘flood risk’)

Days

Providing evidence to inform country decisions

Source: data from HadEX2; model results from Sillmann et al 2013 based on CMIP5 model archive used by IPCC WGI

past

low emissions

high emissions

Increase in heavy rainfall days within natural variability

Increase in heavy rainfall days above natural variability

1900 2050 2100

Year

2000 1950 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

010

20

30

40

50

60

70

Bangladesh

010

20

30

40

50

60

70

R20mmDays with extreme rainfall (‘flood risk’)

Days

example of Bangladesh

Providing evidence to inform country decisions

Source: data from HadEX2; model results from Sillmann et al 2013 based on CMIP5 model archive used by IPCC WGI

past

low emissions

high emissions

Mean annual temperature

mean projected warming of 1.4°C above 1990

mean projected warming of 4.8°C above 1990

example of Bangladesh

Providing evidence to inform country decisions

Source: data from CRU-TSv3.22; model results from CMIP5 model archive used by IPCC WGI

Days of warm spell (‘heat waves’)

double the number of days of warm spells

extreme shift in climate

example of Bangladesh

Providing evidence to inform country decisions

Source: data from HadEX2; model results from Sillmann et al 2013 based on CMIP5 model archive used by IPCC WGI

Thailand

Tanzania

Philippines

Peru Nigeria

Morocco

Malaysia

Ghana Ethiopia

Egypt

Colombia

Brazil

Bangladesh

China

mean annual temperature data and model projections with high and low emissions

Your country in perspective

Oman

Source: data from CRU-TSv3.22; model results from CMIP5 model archive used by IPCC WGI

Egypt

Nigeria Tanzania

Morocco Bangladesh

Colombia

Ethiopia

Philippines Malaysia

Thailand

Brazil

China

Ghana

Peru

Oman

days with extreme rainfall data and model projections with high and low emissions

Your country in perspective

Source: data from HadEX2; model results from Sillmann et al 2013 based on CMIP5 model archive used by IPCC WGI

Climate change and health: country profiles 14 |