clearline mous improving forecasts with allocations

7/29/2019 ClearLine MOUS Improving Forecasts With Allocations

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Improving Forecasts With

Allocations In HyperionPlanning / Essbase

Michigan Oracle Users Summit 2012

November 14, 2012


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Presentation Outline

Introductions

Steve Light & the ClearLine Group

Allocations

Where allocations fit into forecasting

Overview of Hyperion allocation options

Allocations in a real rolling forecast

Q & A

2011 ClearLine Group, L.L.C. 2


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INTRODUCTIONS

2011 ClearLine Group, L.L.C.


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Steve Light

Director in ClearLines Hyperion Practice

17 years experience with Hyperion Products Started on Essbase 3 and certified on 4, 5, 6, 7, 9.0, 9.3, & 11

Beta tester for ASO on 7.1 and worked with 7x & 9x

Hyperion Planning 2, 4, 9.3, and 11 (Classic & EPMA)

Analyzer / Web Analysis, Financial Reports

Worked on 59 different projects at 43 companies

Industries Aviation, Banking, Consumer Products, Financial, Health Care, Insurance,

Manufacturing, Retail, Pharmaceutics, Publishing, Telecom, and

Transportation



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Overview of ClearLine Group

Boutique consulting firm of highly experienced Hyperion EPM experts Core team has a deep history of success working together for over 12 years.

Pioneers consulting in the Hyperion technologies

Backgrounds blend industry and consulting experience

Breadth of skills from expert level advisory, executive visioning and project

management to hands-on architecture and implementation

All full-time employees, focused on the long-term success of the firm

ClearLine provides a consistent source of high caliber experts who leverage the

collective experience of our group to deliver superior results



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Provide customers with end-to-end servicesServices range from initial visioning / roadmap process to project oversight and advisory

to full implementation and production support services.



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WHERE ALLOCATIONS FIT INTOFORECASTING



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What is an allocation?

It is a system of dividing expenses and

incomes among the various branches

and departments of a business.



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Business Samples

Allocating costs across

Often used for driver based cost

components in rolling forecasts Manufacturing costs (e.g. electricity) could

be allocated to lines based on equipment

type and volume



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Business Samples

Allocating high level forecasts down

High level values being pushed down to

detailed plans Top Down

Middle Out

Most of this presentation is focused on thistype of allocation



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Allocations & Forecasting


Bottom Up forecasting starts at the 0 level and aggregates up.

Simple system with no allocations Large amount of data entry

Not as accurate as people think

User may allocate off line with reduced accuracy

Users might enter lump sums can cause calculation and reporting issues.

Higher volume of data entry will lead to more user input errors

Level 0

Level 4

Level 3

Level 2

Level 1


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Top Down forecasting starts with a single top level number and

allocates down to the 0 level A fast and simple process with allocations

Very little data entry

Good for an assigned goal

Detailed levels may be less accurate than desired when poorly designed

Level 0

Level 4

Level 3

Level 2

Level 1


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Middle Out forecasting can start at any level in between

Flexible real world forecasting with allocations Usually more accurate

Often less work for the users than Bottom Up forecasting

Level 0

Level 4

Level 3

Level 2

Level 1


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Waterfall allocation starting at the level picked by the end user

In this example the user decided to start at level 3 Fills in the levels below

Adjustments can be made at the current level or lower levels

Level 0

Level 3

Level 2

Level 1


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Complete all 0 level calculation (if any) after the allocation is complete

NOTE: some applications may not need any 0 level calculations

Level 0


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Aggregate the cube to roll up all of the data for the total.

CalcAll, Calc Dim, Agg

The user can repeat the process at any level with adjustments as many

times as necessary

Level 0

Level 4

Level 3

Level 2

Level 1


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OVERVIEW OF HYPERIONALLOCATIONS OPTIONS



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Numerous Allocation Options

Oracle has provided a lot of different ways to allocatedata within the Hyperion products

There are also third party options

You need to pick the right tool for the job What is important to your project?

Upper level writes

Audit trails

Allocating down verses across Calculation complexity verses large data volumes

In memory verses directly impacting data in the cube

Do you already own something that can do the job?



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Built-in Options for Hyperion Planning

Adjusting & Spreading Data Hyperion Planning web form feature

Adjust either individual or multiple data cell values up or down

by a percentage or by a specific amount

Security lets users only adjust cells with write access

Date and text values are automatically excluded

Further flexibility by utilizing cell locking

Temporarily lock cells while Hyperion Planning calculates and spreadsthe results into the unlocked cells within the range

Users are given the opportunity to evaluation the new values

before sending the data to the database



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Time Spreading Hyperion Planning web form feature

Allows data to be entered at a high level instantly allocated

Spreading data based on a proportional allocation of existing values

Spreading week level based on i.e. 454, 445, 544, or None

Adjusts for Time Balance

Security lets users only adjust cells with write access

Further flexibility by utilizing cell locking Temporarily lock cells while Hyperion Planning calculates and spreads

the results into the unlocked cells within the range

Users are given the opportunity to evaluation the new values

before sending the data to the database 2011 ClearLine Group, L.L.C. 20


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Grid Spread Grid Spread must be enabled as a data form property

Specify an amount or percentage to change values on the data

form

Selectable spreading patterns (Proportional, Even Split, & Fill)

Can see results immediately on the data form

Can save the new data or discard it.

Ignores read-only, locked cells, and cells having supportingdetail.

Data integrity is safeguarded by spreading values only to cells

that you have access to.



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Mass Allocation Need Mass Allocate role assigned Shared Services and the Mass

Allocate data form property must be enabled

Spreads data even to cells not displayed on the data form

Allocates data to all the source cell's descendants

Allocates across multiple dimensions

Allocate from either a subtotal cell or total cell

Uses dynamically-created calculation scripts

Customized spreading patterns

Does not require that you have access to the target cells

Cannot be undone after you mass allocate values



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Oracle Essbase ASO

Oracle Essbase ASO allocations Added in Oracle Essbase Release 11.1.2

This is GREAT when it fits your needs

Scale up the size of the database

Allows simple allocations to run with great speed

Allocations any level in the databases dimension hierarchies

Spread evenly or as a percent of total

Runs within MaxL or in the API

Results use ASOs temporary data load buffers

Keep in mind ASO database allocations are not quite as flexible as BSOallocations

Write back only at the level 0

Cannot use relative references to dimension members



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Hyperion Profitability & Cost

Management (HPCM) Provides actionable insights into costs and profitability

Drives performance by discovering drivers of cost & profitability

Visible maps and audit trails on business drivers to improve

resource alignment with allocations

Complete complex calculations and still scales

Flexibility and visibility to accurately allocate values

Allocation engine supports a wide range of methodologies

Graphical traceability maps and data lineage User-defined business rules

Robust ability to distribute indirect costs and project based

allocations



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Third Party Tools

PACE Robust and easy to use 3rd party tool for Essbase BSO

In-memory engine built to extend Essbases spreading and

allocation functionality

Rapid calculation with advanced what-if modeling

Data is only written back to the database when the planner

decides that it ready to send

Pace includes additional features like:

n-Dimensional Locking-and- Spreading

Built-in Business Logic

Inverse Calculation Logic for multiple targets

Multi-Dimensional Web- Enabled Spreadsheet



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Calculation Script Definition

Oracle Essbase BSO Calculation Scripts andHyperion Business Rules

Easier than a lot of people think

Allocations let you to distribute values that are atthe parent level across child members.

Allocations are based on a number of criteria that

can be expressed in the following functions.

@ALLOCATE a single dimension

@MDALLOCATE across multiple dimensions



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Oracle Essbase Technical Reference Syntax:@ALLOCATE (amount, allocationRange, basisMbr, [roundMbr],method [,

methodParams] [, round [, numDigits][, roundErr]])

@ALLOCATE

Required Parameters:

Amountwhatyou want to allocate

AllocationRangewhere you want to allocate to

Methodhowthe allocation works

BasisMbrprovides the Method with apattern

Optional Parameters:

MethodParams addition options on how the Method will work



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@ALLOCATE

Oracle Essbase Technical Reference Syntax:@ALLOCATE (amount, allocationRange, basisMbr, [roundMbr],method [,

methodParams] [, round [, numDigits][, roundErr]])

Optional Rounding Parameters:

RoundMbr where rounding errors are added

Round turns it on and specifies the member

NumDigits specifies decimal places to round to

RoundErr specifies how you deal with rounding errors



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Amount (what) current member of the products

AllocationRange (where) the children of the of that products

BasisMbr (pattern)based on the current years final plan

Method (how) spread

MethodParams skip both zeros and missing values

@ALLOCATE Sample

Allocation the volume from products to its children, based on the currentyears Final Plan, skipping both zero and #missing values.


Plan =@ALLOCATE ((Product),@CHILDREN (Product),Plan->FY12->Final,, SPREAD, SKIPBOTH);



BasisMbr (pattern)based on the current years final plan

Method (how) spread



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@MDALLOCATE

Oracle Essbase Technical Reference Syntax:@MDALLOCATE (amount, Ndim, allocationRange1 ... allocationRangeN,

basisMbr, [roundMbr], method [, methodParams] [, round [, numDigits]

[,roundErr]])

Additional Required Parameters:

Ndim the number of dimensions you want to allocate to

AllocationRange(s) the dimensions you want to allocate to



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ALLOCATIONS IN A REALROLLING FORECAST



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Overview Of A Real System

Major consumer products company Worlds 6th company in their industry

Marketed in more than 100 countries

Over $16 billion in net sales

Over 30,000 employees

Forecasting application

Built in Essbase BSO

Rolling forecasts for volume Multiple different divisions combined into a single corp view

Upper level user adjustments

300 users



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Basic Features

4 years of weekly volume data for 30,000 SKUs

Fully automated processing of historical data with

built in error checking and email alerts

On the fly conversions for Scaling & Currency 0 Level conversions pounds & other units of measure

Rapid calculation.

Company wide allocations in minutes All other calculations in seconds!

5 versions for each of the 15 forecast scenarios



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Advanced Features

Transparent Partitions Improve performance

Simplifies calculations and security

Waterfall allocations with starting levels controlled by individual

end users Allows for multiple types of forecasting allocations

Bottom Up , Top Down, and Middle Out

End user controls forecasts source, level, and percent

growth/decline via simple flags End user overrides at any forecast level

Iterative what if process quickly restates all products for an

entire companys forecast



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Forecast Process

Set the run time prompts for the set up and variableswith Business Rules and the HBR Launcher

Determine SourceFor the forecasts BasisMbr

Product Level Top Down, Bottom Up, or Middle Out

Percent Growth/Decline

NOTE: This can work using flag members and fix statements in calc

scripts if you are not using Business Rules with run time prompts

Run the set up business rule

Clears old data in the forecast

Rolls current actual data into history forecast periods

Populates a starting point for the forecast based on variables



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Business Rule & Run Time Prompts



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Forecast Process (cont)

Run the aggregation (Optional Step) Rolls up data to the top of the cube

Can be used for a high level forecast

Run the allocation

Allocates from level defined by the flag to lowest level

Automatically switches allocation logic between Percent Of

Total and Even Spreading based on data patterns

Identifies discontinued SKUs, maintained for history, andignores them during the allocation

Completes stored conversion at the 0 level (if required)

Aggregates all unit conversions to the top of the cube



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Process OverviewTypical Monthly Forecast Flow


Begin

Forecast

Process

Accept

Forecast

Data

Run

Allocation

Yes Copy to

Appropriate

Version

End

Forecast

Process

Yes

Lock &

Send

Adjustments

No

Lock &

Send

Adjustments

No

Run

Set Up

Accept

ForecastData

Accept

Starting

Point

Run

Aggregation

Yes

No

1st optional

what if area

2nd optional

what if area3rd optional

what if area


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Intelligent Logic Switching


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Determine source, level, and % changefor the October Estimate (e.g. 10%growth of Spring Plan at level 1)

The allocation starting point is created

Members without history can be

manually entered and adjustments canbe completed

Allocation process starts

Identifies discontinued products atall level of the product hierarchy thatare being maintained for history

Percent of total based on source Even spread when there is no

source The unit conversions are completed

and the division forecast isaggregated


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Hyperion Business Rule Overview

OK What Happened!?!


Used the basic @Allocate function

Leverages a lot of features

Fixes and Ifs Control levels

Optimization

Substitution Variables and Run Time Prompts

Avoids Hardcoding and remove maintenance Collect user input to drive process

UDAs

Tags discontinued SKUs



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OK What Happened!?!


Tuning the calculation

Minimized the passes through the cube

Reduced the number of blocks called into the cache Automation

Attached to Web Forms (if using Hyperion Planning)

Simple relational database to generate and run MaxL

scripts based on the system date for all of the variables

Can run on the fly and scheduled



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BasisMbr (pattern) based on the Spread member of the currentyears final plan

Method (how) spread


Break It Down

Allocate the volume from the current member of products to its childrenbased on the Spread member of the current years final spring plan with a

spread that skips both zeros and missing values.


&VarPlan =@ALLOCATE(@CURRMBR ("Product"),@CHILDREN (@CURRMBR("Product")),"Spread"->"Spring Plan"->"Final"->&CY,,SPREAD, SKIPBOTH);



BasisMbr (pattern) based on the Spread member of the currentyears final plan

Method(how) spread



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What does the calc look like?FIX (&CYPlus1, &VarPlan,"Working",(@LEVMBRS ("Sales Channel", 0)

FIX (@LEVMBRS ("Product", 4))

("EQC"

(IF (([Level Flag] == 4) AND ([Source Flag] == 3) AND (@ISMBR(&VarPlan) AND @ISMBR("Spring Plan"))

IF (@MDSHIFT(@CURRMBR ("Product"), -4, "Measures" , 0, "Fiscal Year", , 0, "Scenario",)) #Missing)

IF(NOT (@ISMBR("Jan") AND @ISMBR(&HBOPEN_MTH)))

&VarPlan = @ALLOCATE(@CURRMBR ("Product"),@CHILDREN (@CURRMBR ("Product")),

"Share"->"Spring Plan"->"Final"->&CYPlus1,,share);

ELSE


"Share"->"Spring Plan"->"Final"->&CY,,share);

ENDIF

ELSEIF (@MDSHIFT(@CURRMBR ("Product"),-4, "Measures", 0, "Fiscal Year", , 0, "Scenario",)) == #Missing)



"Spread"->"Spring Plan"->"Final"->&CYPlus1,, spread, skipboth);

ELSE


"Spread"->"Spring Plan"->"Final"->&CY,, spread, skipboth);

ENDIF

ENDIF

ENDIF))

ENDFIX

ENDFIX



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And what does that mean?FIX (&CYPlus1, &VarPlan,"Working",(@LEVMBRS ("Sales Channel", 0)


("EQC"






ELSE



ENDIF





ELSE



ENDIF

ENDIF

ENDIF))

ENDFIX

ENDFIX



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("EQC"






ELSE



ENDIF





ELSE



ENDIF

ENDIF

ENDIF))

ENDFIX

ENDFIX



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("EQC"






ELSE



ENDIF





ELSE



ENDIF

ENDIF

ENDIF))

ENDFIX

ENDFIX



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("EQC"






ELSE



ENDIF





ELSE



ENDIF

ENDIF

ENDIF))

ENDFIX

ENDFIX



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("EQC"






ELSE



ENDIF





ELSE



ENDIF

ENDIF

ENDIF))

ENDFIX

ENDFIX



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ClearLine Group, L.L.C.

250 Parkway Drive

Suite 150

Lincolnshire, IL 60069

Call:

855.ClrLine (855.257.5463)

Online:

[email protected]

www.clearlinegroup.com

clearline mous improving forecasts with allocations

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