Claire Wright, Consultant, Lloyd’s MIUClaire Wright, Consultant, Lloyd’s MIU

Lloyd’s is the registered trademark of the Society incorporated by the Lloyd’s act 1871 by the name of Lloyd’s

IMSF Gdansk29 April 2008

METHODS FOR APPORTIONING METHODS FOR APPORTIONING COCO22 EMISSIONS FROM SHIPS EMISSIONS FROM SHIPS

OUTLINEOUTLINE

Legislative environmentLegislative environment Complexities in apportioning shipping emissionsComplexities in apportioning shipping emissions ApproachesApproaches Trade/ShippingTrade/Shipping ConclusionsConclusions

Most efficient mode of goods

transport

Facilitated globalisedeconomy

Carries 77% of world trade

2-4% global CO2 emissions 600- 1000mt

CO2

1470 mt CO2

by 2020?

GREEN GREEN OR NOT SO GREEN?OR NOT SO GREEN?

WHY THE ATTENTION?WHY THE ATTENTION?

• Scientific Consensus- Global CO2 emissions reductions of 50%

- Keep CO2 in atmosphere below 450 ppm

- Temperature rise below 2ºC

• Successor to Kyoto – 2012

- Negotiations ongoing, decision 2009

- Aviation and shipping likely to be included

• What does this mean for shipping?- Aviation – divide flight 50/50 origin/dest?

COMPLEXITY OF SHIPPINGCOMPLEXITY OF SHIPPING

Complex trading relationships : 1.8m port to port transits

180,000 port to port links10,000 country to country links

Bunkering Multi-load/discharge Landlocked countries Transhipment

Shipping and aviation are not the same:

Put in picture of container

map

Containership Transit Network

APPROACHESAPPROACHES

Global bunker fuel sales GDP Regional studies of pollution

in territorial waters The 50/50 scenario Trade imported/exported by

country and mode Tonne miles of trade

imported/exported by country and mode

Marine bunker sales 2006

REQUIREMENTSREQUIREMENTS

What does the selected method need to do?

• Apportion fairly by country – how defined?

• Available information – trade by country, commodity?

• Clear methodology

• Be repeatable

• Be compatible with calculations for other transport modes

CountryCargo_Tonnes

(millions)Tonne_Miles

(millions)% of EU Total

TM

Belgium 5.43 8,599 1%

Bulgaria 7.58 3,456 0%

Cyprus 0.62 1,184 0%

Germany 36.14 30,705 3%

Denmark 5.04 2,048 0%

Spain 49.86 139,373 14%

Finland 10.20 3,769 0%

France 91.13 229,393 23%

United Kingdom 71.21 58,554 6%

Greece 19.79 43,613 4%

Republic of Ireland 3.34 2,332 0%

Italy 124.17 201,671 20%

Republic of Lithuania 4.45 1,513 0%

Malta 0.31 673 0%

Netherlands 94.93 215,888 22%

Poland 0.68 303 0%

Portugal 11.58 31,376 3%

Romania 7.84 4,034 0%

Republic of Slovenia 0.14 166 0%

Sweden 16.28 13,105 1%

Total 560.70 991,757 100%

TONNE MILESTONNE MILES

Seaborne oil trades Port to Port Quantity Route – Suez, Cape Distance Cargo Tonne Miles

+ Bulgaria & Belgium - Pipelines - Ballast

Analysis of Petroleum Exports

Source: Lloyd’s Marine Intelligence Unit

CRUDE OIL TONNE MILESCRUDE OIL TONNE MILES

Denmark

United Kingdom

Netherlands

PolandEstonia

Sweden Germany

BulgariaBelgium

Latvia

Lithuania

Seaborne Export Tonnes Miles from EU-25

Seaborne Import Tonnes Miles to EU-25

Source: Lloyd’s Marine Intelligence Unit

Spain

Finland

France

United KingdomGreece

Italy

Netherlands

Malta

Lithuania

Ireland

BelgiumSw eden

Poland

Bulgaria

Cyprus

RomaniaPortugal

Germany

Denmark

Slovenia

TRADE & SHIPPINGTRADE & SHIPPING

Global model. Same methodology to all countries Trade imported/exported to a country by mode Tonne miles of cargo imported/exported by country

To calculate emissions associated with trade to a country:

Origin/Destination of cargo, country level minimum Transport mode Agreed Distance from country A to country B Route from A to B, e.g. Suez, Cape of Good Hope – could be by

commodity Agreed emission factors for mode

WORLD TRADE DATABASE LMIU developed a detailed and consistent database of world

merchandise trade broken down by mode– Seaborne

Tanker Dry Bulk General Cargo

– Overland– Pipeline– Air

Value($) and Volume (metric tonnes) UN COMTRADE Database SITC rev3.HS Rev 1:

- + 1000 commodities, 245 countries- 20,000 unique trade routes, 3 million records

WHO TO BELIEVE:Importer or Exporter ?Crude Oil Russia to Cyprus

Exports Reported by Russia 16.8 Million Tonnes

Imports Reported by Cyprus 131K Tonnes

LMIU Observed Crude Tanker Capacity Russia- Cyprus 300K DWT

Motor Vehicle Parts Germany to Mexico

Value Tonnes$ per

Tonne

Imports Reported by Mexico 860,887,000 4,360,282 197

Exports Reported By Germany 517,722,000 74,757 6,925

Avg Value German M/V Parts to World 8,409

WORLD TRADE TONNESWORLD TRADE TONNES

World Trade Modal Split - Tonnes

Seaborne

76.5%

Overland

15.9%

Pipeline

7.3%

Air

0.3%

Seaborne Overland P ipeline Air

DATA CHALLENGESDATA CHALLENGESTrade Data

Inaccuracies/incompleteness in trade data: consistency in volumes, importer/exporter reporting differences, gaps in data.

Quantity of data – millions of trade data records, 4m ship movements a year.

Shipping Data

Country level mileage not as accurate as port to port level Ballast Transport routes for landlocked and Suez/Cape trades Pleasure/fishing craft/passenger vessels

CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION

Attention will continueAttention will continue – – Vessels reducing emissions, Vessels reducing emissions, emissions trading and country-level apportionmentemissions trading and country-level apportionment

StatisticsStatistics – – Accurate global level data is not yet availableAccurate global level data is not yet available

Trade data Trade data offers one possible method, butoffers one possible method, but

Data consistencyData consistency, integrity, accuracy, integrity, accuracy

A standardised methodA standardised method is needed – base for negotiations is needed – base for negotiations and policy measures on emissions reductionand policy measures on emissions reduction

WE CAN’T MODEL EVERYTHING…WE CAN’T MODEL EVERYTHING…12 hours in the life of the Pride of Calais:

ANY QUESTIONS?ANY QUESTIONS?