civil war and child health: regional and ethnic dimensions of child immunization and malnutrition in...
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Social Science & Medicine 56 (2003) 2515–2527
Civil war and child health: regional and ethnic dimensions ofchild immunization and malnutrition in Angola
Victor Agadjaniana,*, Ndola Pratab
aDepartment of Sociology, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85387-2101, USAbBay Area International Group (BIG), Institute of Human Development and School of Public Health, University of California,
1213 Tolman Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
Abstract
This study arises from a general proposition that different levels and types of exposure to war are crucial in shaping
health outcomes in a population under war-induced duress. We analyze civil war-related regional and ethnolinguistic
differentials in age-adequate immunization (complete vaccination for age) and levels of malnutrition in Angola. Our
analysis is based on data from a nationally representative survey conducted in 1996, some 2 years after the end of one of
the most destructive periods of hostilities in the history of Angolan civil war. The data show that despite Angola’s
unique mineral wealth, the nation’s levels of child age-adequate immunization is lower and malnutrition rates are higher
than in most of sub-Saharan Africa. To examine age-adequate immunization and chronic malnutrition we fit logistic
regression models that include the regional degree of war impact and ethnolinguistic group, in addition to rural–urban
differences and other conventional sociodemographic characteristics. The tests reveal a significant disadvantage of rural
children relative to urban children in both immunization and chronic malnutrition. Net of the rural–urban differences,
we also detect a significant disadvantage of children residing in parts of the country that had been most affected by the
fighting. The tests also point to a lower level of immunization and higher level of chronic malnutrition among children
from the ethnolinguistic group commonly identified with the opposition. These associations tend to be stronger among
children who were born and/or grew up during war than among children who were born after peace was re-established.
r 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Angola; War; Child health; Malnutrition; Immunization; Sub-Saharan Africa
Introduction and conceptualization
Children have been among the main victims of civil
wars in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite a common percep-
tion that military conflicts negatively affect child health,
and survival, the complexity of these effects and of their
longer-term consequences is poorly understood and
rarely studied, largely because adequate data are often
lacking. Whenever systematic information does become
available, it generally paints pictures of disaster (Cliff &
Noormahomed, 1988; Garenne, Coninx, & Dupuy,
1996; Gessner, 1994; Gubhaju, 1997; Levy & Sidel,
1996). The available literature also indicates that health
and nutritional insecurity among children is a common
consequence of military conflicts (for example, African-
European Institute, 1990; AlDoori, Armijo-Hussein,
Fawzi, & Herrera, 1994; Brentlinger, Hern!an, Hernan-
dez-D!ıaz, Azaraff, & McCall, 1999; Cutts et al., 1996;
Garenne, 1997; Kinfu, 1999). However, it is important
to remember that in sub-Saharan Africa, as in other
parts of the developing world, child malnutrition and
health problems caused by poverty and economic crises
are pervasive even under peaceful conditions (Boerma,
Sommerfelt, Rutstein, & Guillermo, 1990; Martin-Pr!evel
et al., 2000). In addition to a direct impact of war on
child health through malnourishment, war affects it
indirectly by undermining a country’s public health
system and specifically its immunization programs. This
*Corresponding author. Tel.: +1-480-965-3804; fax: +1-
480-965-0064.
E-mail address: [email protected] (V. Agadjanian).
0277-9536/03/$ - see front matter r 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
PII: S 0 2 7 7 - 9 5 3 6 ( 0 2 ) 0 0 2 8 6 - 1
consequence of war is particularly deleterious in poorer
countries where comprehensive immunization coverage
can lead to dramatic improvements in child health and
survival (Amin, 1996; Desgr!ees du Lo #u, 1996; Garenne,
Coninx, & Dupuy, 1996; Samb, Aaby, Whittle, Seck, &
Simomdon, 1997).
In this study we contribute to an understanding of
these matters by using the case of Angola, a sub-
Saharan country with a population of 13 million that
has been in and out of civil war for almost three decades.
We examine Angolan children’s immunization and
malnutrition levels by focusing on their regional and
ethnic dimensions and attempting to relate these
dimensions to the effects of civil war.
Angola, mired in military conflicts since before its
independence from Portugal in 1975, offers a glaring
example of the devastation caused by war. The warfare
that dragged on for the first decade and a half of
Angola’s independent history was brought to a halt by
the signing of a ceasefire between the ruling MPLA (the
Portuguese acronym for the Popular Movement for the
Liberation of Angola) and its long-term rival UNITA
(the National Union for the Total Independence of
Angola) in 1991 only to resume a year later, after
UNITA refused to accept the results of the general
elections held in September 1992. The stretch of
hostilities that followed was particularly brutal and
generalized, engulfing a large portion of the Angola’s
countryside as well as some urban areas. An accord
signed in Lusaka, Zambia, in November 1994 put an end
to the fighting and started the process of disarmament
and political integration. However, this process failed,
and new fighting erupted in the end of 1998 (Spears,
1999). It took almost three and a half years of fierce
combats and the sudden death of UNITA’s charismatic
leader, for a cease-fire agreement between the warring
parties to be signed in April of 2002 (The New York
Times, 2002). At the time of this writing, the chances for
a durable pacification in Angola are looking increasingly
brighter.
The decades of civil war have caused massive loss of
lives and destruction, reducing the Gross National
Income per capita of this oil-rich country to a mere
USD 290 by the turn of the century (World Bank, 2002).
Hundreds of thousands of people have been killed in
fighting or died from war-related diseases and starva-
tion, and according to some estimates, over 3 millions
persons have been displaced just since the 1998
resumption of hostilities (Chelala, 1999; MSF, 2000;
UN Security Council, 2001). Not surprisingly, children
have been the primary victims of the war; suffice it to say
that a few years ago UNICEF gave Angola a grim
distinction of the worst country in the world to be a
child (UNICEF, 1999).
Although war has been part of Angolan reality for
decades, it has not affected the country evenly. Some
parts of the country—both rural and urban—have
suffered direct and generalized devastation, especially
during the 1992–1994 fighting, whereas other parts have
been largely spared direct fighting and have been
affected indirectly (Anstee, 1996; Brittain 1998). The
effects of war on child health may differ greatly between
directly and indirectly affected areas, and we chose this
regional dimension of the war impact as one of the two
main foci of our analysis. Understanding war-related
regional variations in child immunization and nutrition
may also help design better targeted and tailored post-
war policy interventions.
Another important peculiarity of Angolan war is its
ethnic dimension. As in many other similar settings,
ethnic divisions, loyalties, and rivalries are often
mentioned in accounts and analyses of civil conflict in
Angola and can be traced back to colonial times
(Heywood, 2000; Malaguias, 2000). In the post-colonial
era, the Kimbundu-speaking population, concentrated
in and around the area of the capital city Luanda as well
as inland areas to the east, has been traditionally seen as
the ethnic mainstay of the ruling MPLA, whereas
Umbundu-speakers (also known as the Ovimbundu),
Angola’s largest ethnolinguistic group spread over the
middle part of Angola, have been assumed to support
the UNITA opposition. Although the Angolan conflict
cannot be reduced to ethnic strife, the ethnic factor in it
nevertheless has been significant; ideologies and external
political alliances of the MPLA and UNITA have
changed over time but their ethnic identifiers, however
vehemently denied by the warring parties themselves,
have endured. By focusing on ethnic differentials in
immunization and malnutrition, our study shifts the
focus of analysis from the ethnic causes of war to a no
less important—but a much less studied—issue of war’s
ethnically differential consequences. Again, we believe
that this focus will not only expand our understanding
of how war affects society, but also may usefully inform
national strategies and priorities in dealing with the
public-health legacy of war. Importantly, the ethnic map
of Angola and that of the strength and pattern of the
war impact (greater and direct vs. lesser and indirect) are
not strongly correlated, allowing for an analysis of the
independent effects of each of the two factors.
Our conceptual model rests on a general proposition
that different levels and types of exposure to war are
crucial in shaping health outcomes in a population
under war-induced duress. The two outcomes of
interest—immunization and malnutrition levels—are
known to inversely correlate (Sommerfelt & Stewart,
1994). At the same time, they represent two rather
different dimensions of child health. Malnutrition
results from a large number of factors, the most
common being inadequate food intake and the incidence
and severity of infectious diseases. Hence, it is only
indirectly related to government policies and actions.
V. Agadjanian, N. Prata / Social Science & Medicine 56 (2003) 2515–25272516
Immunization, in contrast, is a direct result of a
government-run public health system.
Our hypotheses are as follows. We expect that child
immunization levels are lower and malnutrition levels
are higher in the segments of the population—either
regionally or ethnically defined—that have suffered most
from war. We also hypothesize that regional and ethnic
differences associated with war are more pronounced
among children who were born and/or grew up during
hostilities, compared to those who were born after
hostilities stopped. Although the disadvantage of rural
areas relative to urban areas is generally to be expected
in both immunization and nutrition, rural–urban
differences should also be stronger among children born
during war than among children born during peace,
because rural areas, regardless of their regional location,
suffer from war disproportionately.
Data and methods
We use data from the Multiple Indicators Cluster
Survey (MICS) conducted in Angola in the last trimester
of 1996, at the height of the peaceful period—2 years
after the Lusaka peace protocol was signed and 2 years
before the next round of hostilities started. MICS was a
nationally representative survey of 4440 households. Its
questionnaire focused on household composition, edu-
cation, mortality, fertility, health, anthropometry, im-
munization, and sanitation (see INE, 1998 for details of
the survey design and sampling methodology). The
MICS sampling frame excluded camps set up for
displaced people during the 1992–1994 fighting. How-
ever, because the survey took place 2 years after the
cessation of hostilities, when many displaced families
had already left the camps, this omission should not
create any major bias. In sum, the MICS provides rich
and unique information on child health and nutritional
status in the aftermath of a major outbreak of civil war.
Information on immunization recorded in MICS
comes from both the vaccination registration card and
mother’s recall. The survey recorded compliance sepa-
rately for each immunization included in the Angolan
vaccination schedule. For our test of immunization
status we construct a variable that we define as age-
adequate immunization. This variable takes into ac-
count the vaccination schedule used in Angola (BCG
and POLIO 0 at birth; POLIO 1 and DTP 1 at 2 months;
POLIO 2 and DTP 2 at 4 months; POLIO 3 and DTP 3
at 6 months; and measles at 9 months) and is formulated
as a dichotomy—children who had all the necessary
vaccines for their age vs. those who missed one or more
of the required vaccines. The analysis of immunization
includes all children aged zero to 59 months.
Following the standard procedure, we define chil-
dren’s nutritional status on the basis of anthropome-
trical measures. MICS recorded age, sex, weight, and
height of all children aged 6 to 59 months in the sampled
households. From these data we created two indices
expressed as z-scores. Weight-for-height and height-for-
age z-scores are the numbers of standard deviations
(SD) from the median International Reference Popula-
tion (WHO/NCHS) (for details on this procedure see,
US Food and Nutrition Board, 1974; WHO, 1983). The
z-score cut-off point of –2SD was used to classify
children as wasted (inadequate weight-for-height, or
acute malnutrition) or stunted (inadequate height-for-
age, or chronic malnutrition) in the respective distribu-
tions. Wasting and stunting reflect the immediate and
cumulative effects, respectively, of poor health and
nutritional deficiency. Our multivariate analyses focus
on these two forms of malnutrition. Our dependent
variables are dichotomous—whether or not a child is
wasted and whether or not a child is stunted.
Our three main independent variables are area of
residence (rural vs. urban), degree of war impact in the
region of residence (region of heavier impact vs. region
of lighter impact), and ethnolinguistic group. Based on a
perusal of contemporary media reports and more
systematic accounts of Angolan war, especially its
1992–1994 outbreak (for example, Anstee, 1996; Brit-
tain, 1998), we subdivide Angola into two parts—one
with a more direct and heavy impact of war, and the
other with a more indirect and relatively mild impact.
We define these two parts using the regional classifica-
tion employed in MICS. In the part with a heavier war
impact, we include the North, East, and Centre-South
regions (the provinces of Uige, Zaire, Malange, Lunda
Norte, Lunda Sul, Moxico, Huambo, Bie, and Kuando-
Kubango). That part of Angola was characterized, in
general, by fierce fighting and bombardments, especially
in the aftermath of the 1992 elections, a vast destruction
of the existing infrastructure, a paralysis of the economy
and basic services such as electricity, running water, and
sewer, and a near complete collapse of the health and
educational systems. The part of the country with a
relatively light impact of war comprises Capital, West
and South regions (the provinces of Luanda, Bengo,
Cabinda, Kwanza Norte, Kwanza Sul, Benguela, Huila,
Namibe, and Cunene). These areas were largely con-
trolled by government forces and saw only sporadic and
isolated clashes. The effect of war there was largely
indirect, manifested in economic stagnation and fre-
quent and prolonged interruptions of basic services.
As can be seen in Fig. 1, each group of regions
constitutes a contiguous area; lighter-impact regions are
in the western part of the country, reflecting the
government’s greater control in the coastal and adjacent
areas, whereas heavier-impact regions encompass the
parts of the Angolan hinterland, where the opposition
has been traditionally strong. Although this simple
classification may not reflect all the regional and local
V. Agadjanian, N. Prata / Social Science & Medicine 56 (2003) 2515–2527 2517
nuances of the war impact, we nevertheless believe that
it is sufficient to highlight the most important differ-
ences.
Fig. 1 also presents a rough ethnolinguistic map of
Angola. In our study, ethnolinguistic group is operatio-
nalized as the language spoken in the household as
reported in the survey by the household’s head. We
define five ethnolinguistic groups: Umbundu, Kimbun-
du, Kikongo, Portuguese, and a residual group of other
languages. Although Portuguese-speakers do not repre-
sent a separate ethnicity and may be of different ethnic
and racial roots, they are a culturally distinct group
reflecting the centuries-long political, cultural, and
demographic presence of the Portuguese in Angola. As
to other indigenous ethnolinguistic groups, although the
ethnographic literature points to considerable differ-
ences among them not only in language but also in
various aspects of traditional economies, material and
spiritual cultures, and social organization, it does not
identify any systematic long-standing ethnic inequalities
in nutrition and health status (for example, Redinha,
1975). In the following text we refer to ethnolinguistic
group as ethnicity for brevity.
Although with our cross-sectional data we cannot
follow trends in immunization and malnutrition over
different stages of the Angolan politico-military situa-
tion, we can approximate the effects of war and peace by
stratifying the MICS sample of children into two groups
according to the time of birth—those who were born
during war (or those who were born before war restarted
in 1992 but grew up after that), and those who were born
during the ensuing period of peace. For the analysis of
immunization status the peace cohort includes all
children born after the end of hostilities in the autumn
of 1994 (age 24 months or younger). However, because
of potential environmental influences on early intrau-
terine growth (for example, through maternal nutri-
tional status), for malnutrition analyses the peace birth
cohort includes children who were conceived after the
war ended (age 18 months or younger). The size of the
resulting peace cohort is relatively small yet, still
sufficient for meaningful statistical tests.
For both immunization and malnutrition the results
of the inter-cohort comparisons should be interpreted
with caution because it is practically impossible to
separate the war-cohort effect from that of age alone.
The goal of our analyses, however, is not so much to
argue that the peace cohort had better health than did
the war cohort, but to try to show, even if indirectly,
that the magnitudes of regional and ethnic differences in
Fig. 1. Main ethnolinguistic groups and regions of war impact in Angola.
V. Agadjanian, N. Prata / Social Science & Medicine 56 (2003) 2515–25272518
immunization and malnutrition changed (decreased)
between the period of hostilities and that of relative
peace.
We start with the analysis of immunization and then
move on to acute and chronic malnutrition. For each of
the three outcomes we first present bivariate associations
and then employ multivariate logistic regression to
analyze the effects of area of residence, region of war
impact, and ethnolinguistic group. For each outcome we
first fit a baseline model that includes conventional
socioeconomic and demographic predictors: urban vs.
rural residence; child’s age (as a set of dummy variables);
sex of household’s head; the average educational level of
household’s adult members (the MICS data do not
allow us to link children’s characteristics and their
mothers’ educational levels), which is broken down into
a trichotomy—none, 1 to 4 year, 5 or more years;
household economic status, approximated by radio
ownership (whether or not the household owns a radio
set); and household sanitary status, approximated by
whether or not water is regularly treated or boiled before
consumption. For the nutritional models we also control
for age-adequate immunization status, as a proxy for the
risk of infections that may affect nutritional conditions.
We then add region of war impact and, finally,
ethnicity, to the baseline model for each of the three
outcomes. In these comprehensive models, Umbundu-
speakers (the Ovimbundu), who are commonly asso-
ciated with the opposition, are the reference category.
For each model, we conduct separate tests for the entire
sample and for each of the two birth cohorts. To control
for possible age variations within each cohort, the
cohort-specific models include age in months as a
continuous variable (preliminary tests showed that
because of each birth cohort’s short age range, within
each cohort the association of age with the outcomes of
interest is more or less linear). To save space and time,
we only present and discuss the odds ratios for the
comprehensive models, acknowledging whether the
addition of region of war impact and ethnicity alters
the effects of predictors in the baseline models.
We use the STATA statistical package for logistic
regression analyses. Due to clustering of observations in
surveys like MICS, the standard errors produced by
commonly employed multivariate tests tend to be
artificially small. To account for the effect of clustering
we obtain robust estimates of standard errors (STATA,
2001).
Results
Age-adequate immunization
As can be seen in Table 1, Angola as a whole has a
dismally low level of age-adequate immunization—only
one in ten of the surveyed children had all the vaccines
required for age. However, the MICS data also show
considerable variations in immunization. Thus immuni-
zation levels reveal a U-shape association with age. The
most striking imbalance, however, is between urban and
rural areas—the odds of age-adequate immunization are
more than three times as high in the former than in the
latter. Although in almost all developing countries
urban children have higher immunization coverage than
their rural counterparts, in Angola the urban–rural
disparity is extreme even by poorest countries’ standards
(Boerma et al., 1990; Sommerfelt & Piani, 1997). The
urban–rural gap is noticeably narrower among children
born after the war than among the war-born cohort,
primarily because of the difference in immunization
rates in rural areas.
Differences in immunization levels according to the
severity of the war impact in the region of residence are
also very pronounced and in the predicted direction:
children living in heavier-impact regions are less likely to
be fully immunized for their age. Again, these differ-
ences diminish in the peace cohort thanks to the
improvement in more affected regions. Among the
ethnolinguistic groups, the Ovimbundu are the worst-
off: only six percent of children in Umbundu-speaking
households had full immunization for their age, less than
half the proportions of adequately immunized children
in Portuguese-, Kimbundu- or Kikongo-speaking fa-
milies. Surprisingly, the ‘‘other’’ group is much more
similar to Umbundu-speakers, but as with all residual
categories consisting of a diverse array of smaller
ethnolinguistic groups, it is difficult to interpret this
similarity. In all groups, with the exception of Kimbun-
du-speakers, immunization rates tend to be higher
among children of the peace cohort. Umbundu-speakers
display the largest improvement, but even so remain at
the bottom of the ethnic list.
The results of the multivariate test of immunization
are presented in Table 2. This test confirms the
considerable advantage of urban areas; urban children
have twice the odds of rural children of being fully
immunized for their age. The urban–rural differences are
particularly large for children conceived and born
during wartime: in that cohort the corresponding odds
ratio exceeds 2.5. In the peace cohort these diminish
considerably, but even so among urban children the
odds of having age-adequate immunization are nearly
twice as high as among rural children.
The analysis underscores the disadvantage of more
heavily affected parts of Angola, both urban and rural.
Overall, the odds of age-adequate immunization for
children living in more affected regions are only two-
thirds of those for children in less affected regions.
However, when we break the sample down by birth
cohort, the regional differences become even stronger
among children born during war, but are no longer
V. Agadjanian, N. Prata / Social Science & Medicine 56 (2003) 2515–2527 2519
significant among those born during peace. Notably,
even after the inclusion of the war-impact region in the
model, the disadvantage of rural children remains
noticeable. Finally, the inclusion of war-impact region
significantly improves the overall fit of the model but
barely alters the effects of other factors, suggesting that
the influence of region is largely independent.
The urban–rural and regional differences are barely
affected by the inclusion of ethnicity. In line with the
bivariate pattern, children in Umbundu-speaking house-
holds, UNITAs alleged ethnic ‘‘backbone,’’ have the
smallest odds of having age-adequate immunization.
However, while the multivariate test increases the
distance between Umbundu-speakers and ‘‘others,’’
which seemed rather slight at the bivariate level, it also
nearly erases the once salient difference between
Umbundu and Portuguese-speakers. Although there is
no straightforward explanation for the latter result, a
possible clue may lie in the sociocultural (rather than
purely ethnolinguistic) nature of the Portuguese-speak-
ing group: once education and material status are
controlled for, the advantage of Portuguese-speakers
disappears. A comparison of the two birth cohorts
suggests that the Ovimbundu’s disadvantage decreased
after hostilities ended.
Our tests indicate that the effects of the three
predictors of interest on having age-adequate immuni-
zation are largely independent from those of other
sociodemographic variables. The effects of these other
variables, however, are also instructive. As is often the
case, the youngest children have the highest level of age-
adequate immunization, but the second-youngest group
is much more different from them than are older
children. Households with a radio are significantly more
likely to have their children adequately immunized than
are households without one. This also accords with the
universal pattern, although in this case a radio may not
just be an indicator of household socioeconomic status
Table 1
Descriptive statistics: age-adequate immunization and child malnutrition, Angola MICS, 1996 (percent)
Immunization Malnutrition
Variables Age-adequate immunization Acute Chronic
All
children
War
cohort
Peace
cohort
All
children
War
cohort
Peace
cohort
All
children
War
cohort
Peace
cohort
Angola total 10.0 9.4 10.7 5.8 5.2 7.6 53.9 57.3 44.9
Area of residence
Urban 17.3 18.0 16.6 4.8 4.0 6.9 47.2 48.9 43.0
Rural 5.1 3.9 6.5 6.6 6.0 8.1 58.4 62.8 46.3
Region of war impact
Heavier impact 5.6 4.0 7.2 6.5 5.9 8.0 59.7 63.9 49.6
Lighter impact 13.5 13.5 13.6 5.3 4.6 7.2 49.3 52.3 40.6
Language spoken at home
Umbundu 6.1 4.7 7.7 7.7 6.8 10.1 64.1 68.9 51.1
Kimbundu 15.6 17.1 14.2 4.0 2.5 7.7 50.5 49.9 52.1
Kikongo 13.6 12.0 15.4 5.1 5.5 3.9 48.5 52.9 35.0
Portuguese 13.7 12.4 15.0 4.7 3.8 6.8 41.5 45.7 30.6
Other languages 7.7 7.7 7.8 5.5 5.6 5.2 47.7 51.6 36.5
Age
o12 monthsa 14.9 — — 3.3 — — 36.8 — —
12–23 months 6.1 — — 10.4 — — 53.5 — —
24–35 months 9.8 — — 4.5 — — 50.0 — —
36–59 months 9.3 — — 4.4 — — 60.7 — —
Fully immunized for age
Yes — — — 3.3 2.2 6.9 36.7 40.3 23.6
No — — — 6.1 5.5 7.7 55.5 59.0 46.5
a0–11 months for immunization, 6–11 months for malnutrition.
V. Agadjanian, N. Prata / Social Science & Medicine 56 (2003) 2515–25272520
but also a medium through which household members
are exposed to vaccination campaign messages (Som-
merfelt & Piani, 1997). Households that regularly treat
drinking water display higher odds of having their
children adequately immunized. Child’s sex shows no
significant effect on the odds of immunization—a result
that conforms to the cross-national evidence (Sommer-
felt & Piani, 1997). Also in line with the experience of
other countries, education of household adults, espe-
cially beyond the primary level, tends to increase the
likelihood of children having all the necessary vaccines.
Finally, living in female-headed households proves more
conducive to age-adequate immunization than living in
male-headed ones, which suggests that in female-headed
families, the absence of men, while increasing women’s
vulnerability, may also make women more aware of
Table 2
Odds ratios of being fully immunized for age, children aged 0–59 months, Angola MICS 1996
Predictors All children Birth cohorts
Born in war Born in peace
Odds
ratios
95% CI Odds
ratios
95% CI Odds
ratios
95% CI
Child’s age (grouped)
[6–11 months] 1 — —
12–23 months 0.32*** (0.21, 0.47) — —
24–35 months 0.58*** (0.40, 0.83) — —
36–59 months 0.54*** (0.40, 0.74) — —
Child’s age (continuous) — 0.99 (0.97, 1.01) 0.91*** (0.88, 0.94)
Child’s sex
[Female] 1 1 1
Male 0.87 (0.68, 1.12) 0.81 (0.57, 1.16) 0.91 (0.64, 1.31)
Sex of household’s head
[Female] 1 1 1
Male 0.58*** (0.44, 0.78) 0.64** (0.43, 0.97) 0.51*** (0.33, 0.78)
Mean education of household adults
[Less than 1 year] 1 1 1
1–4 years 1.21 (0.92, 1.61) 1.13 (0.76, 1.67) 1.36 (0.89, 2.09)
5+years 1.45*** (1.20, 1.74) 1.44*** (1.11, 1.86) 1.51*** (1.14, 2.00)
Household radio ownership
[Household owns no radio] 1 1 1
Household owns a radio 1.53*** (1.16, 2.02) 1.68*** (1.15, 2.46) 1.44* (0.96, 2.15)
Treatment of drinking water
[Water is not treated or boiled] 1 1 1
Water is treated or boiled 1.50*** (1.13, 1.99) 1.46* (0.98, 2.17) 1.52** (1.01, 2.29)
Area of residence
[Rural] 1 1 1
Urban 2.17*** (1.63, 2.87) 2.58*** (1.73, 3.84) 1.91*** (1.28, 2.85)
Region of war impact
[Lighter impact] 1 1 1
Heavier impact 0.65*** (0.49, 0.88) 0.52*** (0.34, 0.80) 0.81 (0.53, 1.24)
Language spoken at home
[Umbundu] 1 1 1
Kimbundu 1.71*** (1.22, 2.42) 2.09*** (1.27, 3.44) 1.5 (0.91, 2.46)
Kikongo 2.05*** (1.29, 3.26) 2.28** (1.12, 4.64) 1.93** (1.03, 3.61)
Portuguese 1.08 (0.69, 1.69) 1.02 (0.54, 1.92) 1.16 (0.62, 2.17)
Other languages 1.43* (0.98, 2.09) 1.97** (1.13, 3.43) 1.09 (0.64, 1.85)
Likelihood ratio chi-square 268*** 148*** 120***
Number of cases 3702 1953 1749
Notes: Reference categories in brackets; — not applicable; CI confidence intervals; significance level at �po0:1; � � po0:05;� � �po0:01:
V. Agadjanian, N. Prata / Social Science & Medicine 56 (2003) 2515–2527 2521
their children’s health needs and give them the necessary
decision-making autonomy in trying to meet those
needs.
Acute malnutrition
Table 1 presents levels of malnutrition by two types—
wasting and stunting. Wasting is generally the most
dramatic consequence of malnutrition for a child. It is
also the shortest-lasting, and once the supply of basic
food is re-established, it tends to recede relatively
quickly (Scrimshaw, Taylor, & Gordon, 1971). Because
MICS was conducted 2 years after the politico-military
situation had stabilized, the prevalence of wasting
among surveyed children may have passed its peak.
Also, the levels of acute malnutrition in our tests may be
underestimated because MICS did not collect nutri-
tional status information for children younger than 6
months, who are more likely to suffer from wasting than
are older children. Furthermore, the WHO/NCHS
definition of malnutrition used in this study has some
limitations when applied to sub-Saharan Africa nations,
as the wasting indicator tends to underestimate the
prevalence of malnutrition (Sommerfelt & Stewart,
1994).
Acute malnutrition in Angola, as registered in MICS,
is high by international standards, although not
exceptionally so for sub-Saharan Africa (Madise, Zo .o,
& Margetts, 1999; Sommerfelt & Stewart, 1994). As is
commonly the case, the levels of wasting are higher in
rural areas than in urban areas. Differences are also
noticeable in the two war-impact regions, with more
affected regions having slightly higher levels. Each of the
two birth cohorts replicates the overall pattern, but the
cross-cohort differentials display an advantage of the
war-born cohort, ostensibly defying our expectations.
Yet this latter pattern reflects more age differences than
it does different contexts of birth; other things being
equal, wasting usually has higher prevalence among
younger children. The ethnolinguistic breakdown pro-
duces one clear outlier—Umbundu speakers—whose
level of wasting greatly exceeds those of other groups.
The results of the multivariate tests of wasting, that
include the same set of predictors as the immunization
models and add to it immunization status (whether or
not a child is fully immunized for age), are presented in
Table 3. The models fit the data poorly, and few
statistically significant effects on the likelihood of being
wasted can be observed. Among the few that do exert
non-negligible impacts are the highest level of household
adults’ education (relative to the lowest schooling level),
and ethnicity. Children of Umbundu-speakers tend to
suffer from wasting more than do other children, but
only in two cases is this tendency statistically significant,
and no meaningful pattern of cohort differences can be
discerned.
Chronic malnutrition
Chronic malnutrition patterns, by definition, take a
longer time to establish and are more enduring than
those of wasting. The overall level of stunting in Angola,
54 percent, is high even by the unenviable sub-Saharan
standards (Sommerfelt & Stewart, 1994). As Table 1
shows, the levels of stunting generally rise with age.
Almost half of urban children are stunted, whereas in
rural areas the share of chronically malnourished
children approaches 60 percent. The gap between
regions of heavier and lighter war-impact is almost
equally wide and in favor of the latter. Notably, the
levels of stunting decline considerably in both areas and
in both regions between the war and peace birth cohorts.
Yet, while the gap between urban and rural children
narrows dramatically in the cohort born after the war,
the gaps between children in more and less affected
regions remains exactly the same as in the war birth
cohort.
As in the case of wasting, the stunting statistics reveal
a glaring disadvantage for the Ovimbundu—almost two-
thirds of children in Umbundu-speaking households
suffered from chronic malnutrition. All the groups
improve their nutritional situation between the peace
and war cohorts, with a surprising exception of
Kimbundu-speakers, whose level of stunting in the
peace cohort is even slightly higher than that of
Umbundu-speakers.
Table 4 presents the results of the same type of logistic
regression as in the analysis of wasting. Compared to the
wasting models, the stunting models have a much
stronger predictive power, and the effects of key
predictors lend themselves to meaningful inferences.
Controlling for age and other sociodemographic
factors, the advantage of urban residence, which we
detected at the bivariate level, is not statistically
significant for the whole sample. However, area of
residence performs differently in each of the birth cohort
models. Whereas rural–urban differences have no
significant influence on the likelihood of being stunted
among children conceived and born in peacetime, the
disadvantage of rural children born or conceived during
wartime is statistically significant.
The region effect underscores the vulnerability of
children living in more affected parts of Angola: their
odds of being stunted are a quarter higher than those for
children in less affected areas. The regional differences
loom larger when we look only at children who were
born during war. In contrast, the region’s effect in the
peace cohort model is not statistically significant (due
chiefly to a large standard error).
With respect to ethnicity the multivariate test confirms
the pattern elicited at the bivariate level. Children
in Umbundu-speaking households reveal a profound
disadvantage even after controlling for region of war
V. Agadjanian, N. Prata / Social Science & Medicine 56 (2003) 2515–25272522
impact, area of residence, and other characteristics. The
differences between them and all other ethnolinguistic
groups are highly significant, and the variation among
the latter seems rather minor. In fact, the group that is
noticeably closer to the Ovimbundu is Kimbundu-
speakers; that is, the group that is commonly seen as
the ethnic mainstay of the MPLA government. The
disadvantage of the Ovimbundu is more pronounced
among the war cohort, but, even among children born
after the war, Umbundu-speakers are more likely to be
stunted than any other groups but Kimbundu-speakers
(as was already suggested by the bivariate comparisons).
In sum, although, as in the case of age-adequate
immunization, the strength of ethnolinguistic differentials
Table 3
Odds ratios of being wasted, children aged 6–59 months, Angola MICS 1996
Predictors All children Birth cohorts
Born in war Born in peace
Odds
ratios
95% CI Odds
ratios
95% CI Odds
ratios
95% CI
Child’s age (grouped)
[6–11 months] 1 — —
12–23 months 3.40*** (1.73, 6.69) — —
24–35 months 1.32 (0.62, 2.79) — —
36–59 months 1.3 (0.65, 2.60) — —
Child’s age (continuous) — 0.98** (0.96, 0.996) 1.13*** (1.06, 1.22)
Child’s sex
[Female] 1 1 1
Male 0.98 (0.69, 1.40) 0.85 (0.55, 1.33) 1.25 (0.68, 2.32)
Sex of household’s head
[Female] 1 1 1
Male 1.02 (0.68, 1.55) 1.09 (0.65, 1.81) 0.99 (0.5, 1.98)
Mean education of household’s adults
[Less then one year] 1 1 1
1–4 years 0.91 (0.72, 1.15) 0.83 (0.62, 1.11) 1.1 (0.71, 1.69)
5+years 0.85* (0.71, 1.02) 0.87 (0.71, 1.08) 0.85 (0.62, 1.18)
Household radio ownership
[Household owns no radio] 1 1 1
Household owns a radio 0.85 (0.56, 1.29) 0.75 (0.45, 1.26) 1.04 (0.52, 2.05)
Treatment of drinking water
[Water is not treated or boiled] 1 1 1
Water is treated or boiled 0.89 (0.52, 1.53) 0.68 (0.33, 1.38) 1.38 (0.61, 3.13)
Fully immunized for age
[No] 1 1 1
Yes 0.75 (0.35, 1.59) 0.52 (0.18, 1.51) 1.15 (0.37, 3.63)
Area of residence
[Rural] 1 1 1
Urban 0.97 (0.62, 1.50) 1.05 (0.59, 1.85) 0.94 (0.48, 1.85)
Region of war impact
[Lighter impact] 1 1 1
Heavier impact 1.09 (0.75, 1.58) 1.12 (0.7, 1.79) 1.17 (0.65, 2.12)
Language spoken at home
[Umbundu] 1 1 1
Kimbundu 0.57** (0.33, 0.99) 0.43** (0.2, 0.95) 0.86 (0.38, 1.93)
Kikongo 0.59 (0.31, 1.14) 0.72 (0.33, 1.56) 0.42 (0.13, 1.43)
Portuguese 0.68 (0.36, 1.30) 0.63 (0.27, 1.45) 0.79 (0.29, 2.17)
Other languages 0.68* (0.44, 1.06) 0.77 (0.45, 1.32) 0.51* (0.25, 1.04)
Likelihood ratio chi-square 51*** 23* 25**
Number of cases 3152 2295 857
Notes: Reference categories in brackets; — not applicable; CI confidence intervals; significance level at �po0:1; � � po0:05;� � �po0:01:
V. Agadjanian, N. Prata / Social Science & Medicine 56 (2003) 2515–2527 2523
in the probability of stunting tends to decline between
the two cohorts, this decline is somewhat less manifest
than in the case of immunization.
The effects of other predictors included in this model
also merit attention. As the bivariate distribution
already suggested, the likelihood of stunting tends to
rise with age. Like immunization, stunting is signifi-
cantly associated with household material and sanitary
status: children in radio-owning (i.e., economically
better-off) households, and in households where drink-
ing water is regularly treated, have lower odds of
stunting. Although these effects hold for the war cohort
and the peace cohort alike, the impact of both predictors
is stronger in the peace cohort model, suggesting that the
condition (or the imprint) of war may attenuate the
conventional socioeconomic differentials in nutrition.
Table 4
Odds ratios of being stunted, children aged 6–59 months, Angola MICS 1996
Predictors All children Birth cohorts
Born in war Born in peace
Odds
ratios
95% CI Odds
ratios
95% CI Odds
ratios
95% CI
Child’s age (grouped)
[6–11 months] 1 — —
12–23 months 2.13*** (1.51, 30.2) — —
24–35 months 1.92*** (1.35, 2.73) — —
36–59 months 2.95*** (2.12, 4.09) — —
Child’s age (continuous) — 1.01*** (1.004, 1.02) 1.12*** (1.07, 1.18)
Child’s sex
[Female] 1 1 1
Male 1.1 (0.91, 1.32) 1.04 (0.84, 1.29) 1.27 (0.88, 1.82)
Sex of household’s head
[Female] 1 1 1
Male 1.14 (0.93, 1.39) 1.18 (0.93, 1.49) 1.11 (0.73, 1.68)
Mean education of household’s adults
[Less then one year] 1 1 1
1–4 years 1 (0.88, 1.15) 1.03 (0.88, 1.20) 0.93 (0.71, 1.21)
5+years 0.97 (0.88, 1.07) 0.99 (0.89, 1.11) 0.89 (0.73, 1.07)
Household radio ownership
[Household owns no radio] 1 1 1
Household owns a radio 0.80** (0.66, 0.98) 0.84 (0.66, 1.07) 0.74 (0.5, 1.09)
Treatment of drinking water
[Water is not treated or boiled] 1 1 1
Water is treated or boiled 0.66*** (0.52, 0.83) 0.74** (0.56, 0.97) 0.45*** (0.28, 0.73)
Fully immunized for age
[No] 1 1 1
Yes 0.62*** (0.46, 0.84) 0.67** (0.48, 0.94) 0.45** (0.22, 0.92)
Area of residence
[Rural] 1 1 1
Urban 0.85 (0.69, 1.05) 0.76** (0.6, 0.98) 1.13 (0.75, 1.70)
Region of war impact
[Lighter impact] 1 1 1
Heavier impact 1.27** (1.03, 1.53) 1.29** (1.003, 1.65) 1.27 (0.85, 1.89)
Language spoken at home
[Umbundu] 1 1 1
Kimbundu 0.71** (0.53, 0.97) 0.59*** (0.41, 0.84) 1.19 (0.67, 2.11)
Kikongo 0.52*** (0.39, 0.71) 0.51*** (0.36, 0.73) 0.56* (0.3, 1.04)
Portuguese 0.54*** (0.4, 0.75) 0.54*** (0.37, 0.78) 0.55* (0.29, 1.04)
Other languages 0.49*** (0.39, 0.63) 0.48*** (0.37, 0.64) 0.49*** (0.30, 0.78)
Likelihood ratio chi-square 152*** 97*** 63***
Number of cases 2992 2172 820
Notes: Reference categories in brackets; — not applicable; CI confidence intervals; significance level at �po0:1; � � po0:05;� � �po0:01:
V. Agadjanian, N. Prata / Social Science & Medicine 56 (2003) 2515–25272524
As with immunization, child’s sex has no influence on
the probability of being stunted. The effect of household
head’s sex is not significant either, but at least its
direction (the opposite of that in the immunization test)
suggests—not surprisingly—that male-headed house-
holds may have better access to food. Interestingly, the
likelihood of chronic malnutrition does not decrease
with education. Maternal education is known to have a
strong negative association with child malnutrition
(Sommerfelt & Stewart, 1994), but because we cannot
link children’s nutritional status to their mothers’
schooling levels directly, we can only guess that the lack
of association in our case is due to our using the average
schooling level of household adults. Finally, as one
could expect, being fully immunized for age significantly
lowers the odds of being stunted.
Discussion and conclusion
In this study we set out both to document the state of
child immunization and malnutrition in Angola, and to
explore possible associations between civil war and these
two aspects of child health. The 1996 MICS survey,
conducted 2 years after one of the worst bouts of the war
ended and the nation had begun to savour the
precarious peacefulness, captured a very low level of
immunization and widespread malnutrition among
Angolan children. The state of Angolan children’s
nutrition compares unfavorably with most sub-Saharan
nations; Angola’s immunization coverage is even worse
by comparison. Whereas malnutrition is largely a
testimony to how war can undermine normal food
production and distribution, the failure of immunization
exemplifies how war paralyses the normal functioning of
the state. The situation of child immunization and
nutrition in Angola is particularly appalling if we take
into account that Angola, generously endowed with
mineral and agricultural resources, is potentially one of
the richest countries in sub-Saharan Africa.
We should emphasize that due to the nature of the
data our analyses were confined to children born in
1991–1996 who were still alive at the time of the survey.
Since children with no or incomplete immunization and
malnourished children have a higher probability of
dying, our results may underestimate the severity of
malnutrition and of immunization undercoverage in
Angola. However, at least with respect to malnutrition,
it has been shown that the survivor bias is small and
does not considerably distort the picture of malnutrition
prevalence (Boerma et al., 1990).
Our analytic approach allowed us to highlight both
the universal and unique factors that have shaped
Angola’s child immunization and malnutrition patterns.
First, we found that immunization coverage and
malnutrition are determined by standard sociodemo-
graphic factors that have proven their importance in
other, more ‘‘normal’’ settings. Yet, we also found
associations that are specific to Angola. Thus, support-
ing our hypothesis, children living in the parts of the
country where fighting had been particularly ferocious
and generalized, and the devastation most profound,
exhibited significantly lower levels of age-adequate
immunization and higher levels of malnutrition, espe-
cially of stunting, than did children living in the
country’s less affected parts. Controlling for other
factors, the disadvantage of those areas remained
sweeping both in immunization and in chronic malnu-
trition.
The ethnolinguistic factor added another important
nuance to our results. The Ovimbundu, the group that is
often described as the UNITA’s ethnic base, displayed
by far the worst nutritional situation and immunization
coverage. We do not have any evidence to argue that the
Ovimbundu-populated areas have been discriminated
against by the government-run immunization programs,
or have been intentionally denied food and other
assistance by the Luanda regime on the basis of their
ascribed loyalty to the opposition. After all, our analysis
also showed that the government’s supposed backers—
even if by ascription only, Kimbundu-speakers and
perhaps Portuguese-speakers—were not particularly
privileged. The historical and ethnographic studies offer
no evidence of any ecologically or culturally rooted
differences in the amount and allocation of available
household resources or war-unrelated differences in
child caloric intake that might have shaped the observed
disadvantage of Umbundu-speakers.
We believe that an explanation of the Ovimbundu’s
disadvantage lies in the fact that most of them just
happened to live where UNITA control was stronger—
or where UNITA made stronger claims to such
control—and therefore where people had a dispropor-
tionately limited access to food supply and elementary
public health services, regardless of the intensity of the
fighting. As typically happens, children belonging to a
group that is dragged—however unwillingly—into the
centre of the conflict pay a particularly high toll. The
revealed regional and ethnolinguistic differences in
immunization and chronic malnutrition are long-stand-
ing; remarkably, in the levels of wasting—a more
extreme but less enduring form of malnutrition,
especially in the age range considered—no such differ-
ences could be observed. It is also important to note that
the detected effects of region and ethnicity were largely
independent from one another and from the effects of
other, more conventional factors.
With data from just one cross-sectional survey we, of
course, could not make any direct causal inferences
regarding the regional and ethnic patterns of relation-
ship between war and child health. We attempted,
however, to explore such causality indirectly, by
V. Agadjanian, N. Prata / Social Science & Medicine 56 (2003) 2515–2527 2525
comparing children who were born and/or grew up
during hostilities with those who were born after
hostilities stopped. Lending support to our hypothesis,
the differences in levels of age-adequate immunization
that could be associated with war—rural–urban, regio-
nal, and ethnolinguistic—were most pronounced among
the war-born cohort than among the peace-born cohort.
The analysis of chronic malnutrition revealed a similar
trend. There, however, the inter-cohort differences in the
effects of area, region, and ethnicity were not as
pronounced as in the case of immunization, suggesting
that nutritional equity may take longer to establish after
hostilities cease. Notably, no comparable patterns of
association emerged from the tests of wasting, suggest-
ing again that it may not be a good measure of lasting
war-related differences in children’s nutritional status.
In closing, we want to situate our findings within the
context of Angola’s politico-military situation. The
persistence of war-related regional and ethnic differences
2 years after hostilities ceased is troubling in itself, but
subsequent political developments in Angola did not
give much hope that these differences might disappear
soon. The peace process initiated by the 1994 Lusaka
accord was slow to progress, as the government and the
UNITA opposition were trying to outmanoeuvre each
other in their struggle for power. The general and
nutritional health of the nation’s children, especially of
those most affected by war, was not high on the political
leaders’ agendas. In addition, the worst-off among
Angolan children were concentrated mainly in areas
where the supply of food and health care was hampered
by inadequate infrastructure (all but paralysed during
fighting), and by the opposition’s constant suspicions of
the government’s actions. This reminds us that a post-
war reconstruction, especially in a country with such a
long history of hatred and mistrust between the warring
parties, is a slow process, in which health is likely to
have a lower priority.
The April 2002 cease-fire agreement brought the
country closer than ever before to ending the seemingly
endless civil conflict. When this longest-running African
war is finally over, Angola’s leaders will have to face the
enormous challenge of rebuilding the national economy
and health care system. This challenge, daunting in
itself, will be further magnified by the enduring
unevenness of the war legacy. To meet this challenge
effectively, efficiently, and equitably the government
should build this unevenness into its strategy of national
recovery.
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