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City of Tshwane Vulnerability Assessment to Climate Change

City of Tshwane Vulnerability Assessment to Climate Change

SACN Programme:Climate change

Document Type: Vulnerability Report

Document Status:Draft Report

Date: 15 September 2014

Joburg Metro Building, 16th floor, 158 Loveday Street, Braamfontein 2017

Tel: +27 (0)11-407-6471 | Fax: +27 (0)11-403-5230 | email: info@sacities.net | www.sacities.net

Table of Contents

Acronymsi

Glossaryiii

Executive Summaryiv

2Introduction1

3Status quo overview2

2.1City of Tshwane2

3.1.1CoT Development Goals5

3.1.2Drivers and pressures linked to climatic variables in the CoT6

3.1.3Drivers and pressures linked to non-climatic factors in the CoT7

3.2Regional Vulnerability Profiles10

3.2.1Mechanisms /instruments to mainstream climate change adaptation17

4Methodology18

4.1Stakeholder engagement methodology18

4.2Climate modelling methodology: bias-corrected projections from regional climate model18

4.3Climate vulnerability, impact and risk assessment19

4.4Adaptation options and adaptation plan methodology20

4.5Monitoring, Reporting, Evaluation and Verification methodology20

4.5.1Limitations20

5Stakeholder Engagement21

5.1Identification and consultation of stakeholders and community21

6Projections of future climate change over Tshwane25

6.1Introduction25

6.2Summary of Findings25

6.2.1The present-day climate of Tshwane25

6.3Observed trends in the climate of Tshwane28

6.4A regional context for climate change over Tshwane: projections of future climate change over the north-eastern parts of South Africa29

6.4.1Projected changes in temperature over north-eastern South Africa29

6.4.2Projected changes in rainfall over north-eastern South Africa30

6.5Projected climate futures for Tshwane32

6.5.1Projected temperature and rainfall anomalies over time32

6.5.2Very hot days33

6.5.3Extreme rainfall events34

7Impacts and vulnerabilities36

7.1Introduction36

7.1.1What are the key climate vulnerabilities in CoT?36

7.2Environment37

7.2.1Biodiversity37

7.2.2Biodiversity in the City of Tshwane37

7.2.3Threatened Ecosystems in the City of Tshwane38

7.2.4Climate Change and Biodiversity40

7.3Water Resources40

7.3.1River Ecosystems40

7.3.2Water Management Areas41

7.3.3Wetlands42

7.3.4Ground Water43

7.3.5Climate change and water resources44

7.4Land cover46

7.4.1Land cover in the City of Tshwane46

7.4.2Agriculture and Livelihoods47

7.5Air Quality48

7.5.1Air Quality in the City of Tshwane48

7.5.2Air Quality and Climate change50

7.6Extreme Events50

7.6.1Extreme Weather Events51

7.7Social Vulnerability55

7.7.1Human settlements55

7.7.2Social Vulnerability58

7.7.3Human health59

8Risk assessment and prioritisation64

8.1Findings: Risk Assessment and prioritisation64

8.2Prioritisation of key risks65

8.3Adaptations options for key sectors66

8.4Physical sectors67

8.4.1Natural Environment68

8.4.2Air69

7.1.1Water69

8.5Social-economic sectors70

8.5.1Human health70

8.5.2Infrastructure (e.g. roads, bridges and storm water drainage system)71

8.5.3Energy71

8.5.4Human settlements72

8.5.5Social and economic development73

8.5.6Disaster Management74

9City of Tshwane Proposed Adaptation Action Plan75

9.1Introduction75

9.2Linking the plan to key adaptation goals in the green economy framework76

9.3Adaptation Actions for priority risks78

9.3.1Risk factor 1: Loss of ecosystem goods and services78

9.3.2Risk factor2: Increased energy demand79

9.3.3Risk factor 3: Increase in diseases affecting human and animal health79

9.3.4Risk factor 4: Damage to infrastructure (storm water systems, roads, bridges)80

9.3.5Risk factor 5: Water insecurity81

9.3.6Risk factor 6: Flooding and damage to human settlements and private property due to extreme weather events (floods and hailstorm)82

9.3.7Risk factor 7: Increase in sinkholes83

9.3.8Risk factor 8: Decreased productivity of agro ecosystems affecting food security83

9.3.9Strategic adaptation actions84

9.4Milestones and Timelines for implementation of specific actions85

9.5Adaptive Capacity and existing barriers in Tshwane86

9.6Conclusion87

10Monitoring, reporting, verification and evaluation (MRVE)88

10.1Introduction88

10.2MRVE on implementing Adaptation Plan88

10.3Conclusion95

11References96

Tables

Table 1: Climatic drivers and pressures (Adapted from UNEP, 2011)6

Table 2. Drivers and pressures linked to non- climatic variables (Source: CoT, 2013a; CoT, 2014; Regional workshops, June 2014)8

Table 3: Mechanisms for integrating climate change adaptation17

Table 4. Assessing community resilience of the CoT23

Table 5. The present-day climate of Tshwane: Seasonal and annual totals of rainfall (mm).27

Table 6. The present-day climate of Tshwane: Seasonal and annual averages for minimum, maximum and mean daily temperatures (C) over Tshwane. These averages were calculated over the period 1961-1990, using the gridded station data of the CRUTS3.1 data set.28

Table 7: Air Pollutants over CoT50

Table 8. Incidents of hailstorms in the CoT (CoT-SACN, 2013).55

Table 9. The direct and indirect impacts of climate change on NCDs (from Friel et al., 2011)61

Table 10: Natural environment68

Table 11: Air69

Table 12: Water resource69

Table 13: Key vulnerabilities and adaptation options related to Human health70

Table 14: Infrastructure71

Table 15: Energy71

Table 16: Human settlements72

Table 17: Social economic development73

Table 18: Disaster management74

Table 19: Institutional adaptive capacity and barriers for the CoT.86

Table 20: Proposed MRVE guideline for the CoT(Adapted from: Grafakos and Kaczmarski, 2013).91

Table 21: Selected examples of indicators to inform the scoring of actions in the proposed framework at relevant milestones throughout the duration of the project.92

Figures

Figure 1. Location of CoT (Source CoT IDP, 2014)3

Figure 2. Administrative regions of Tshwane (Source CoT, 2013a)4

Figure 3: Population distribution across the regions (Source CoT IDP, 2014)4

Figure 4: Region 111

Figure 5: Region 212

Figure 6: Social vulnerability in Region 313

Figure 7: Region 4 depicting the vulnerability of the communities14

Figure 8: Region 5, depicting vulnerability of communities15

Figure 9. Location of Tshwane in relation to the north-eastern areas of South Africa.26

Figure 10. The present day annual cycle in rainfall and temperature over Tshwane (calculated from the CRUTS3.1 data set).27

Figure 11. Projected change in the annual average temperature over NE South:30

Figure 12. Projected change in average rainfall (mm) over NE South Africa:31

Figure 13. Projected annual temperature (C,y-axis) and rainfall (mm, x-axis) anomalies for the period 1961-2100 over the City of Tshwane, relative to the 1961-1990 baseline climatology, for the six CCAM downscalings under the A2 scenario33

Figure 14: Simulated annual number of very hot days (days with maximum temperature exceeding 35 C) for the period 1961-2100 over the City of Tshwane, for the six CCAM downscalings under the A2 scenario34

Figure 15. Simulated number of extreme precipitation days (24-hr rainfall exceeding 20 mm over an area of 50x50 km2) for the period 1961-2100 over the City of Tshwane, for the six CCAM downscalings under the A2 scenario.35

Figure 16: Biomes and threatened ecosystem status (adopted from BGIS, 2014).39

Figure 17. Water management areas and surface water sources (BGIS, 2014)41

Figure 18: Quality of Ground water44

Figure 19. Land cover in the CoT47

Figure 20. Air quality rating for the CoT49

Figure 21: Informal settlements located on the flood line Source (Built Environment, 2014)51

Figure 22: Mabopane road and bridge washed away during heavy flooding in Northern Pretoria (Source: The Citizen, 2014)52

Figure 23: Informal housing in 50-year flood lines in Region 1 (Soshanguve) (CSIR Built Environment, 2014).53

Figure 24: Location of informal housing, backyards and traditional houses56

Figure 25. Population density in the CoT.56

Figure 26. Informal settlements and high density clusters located on dolomite.57

Figure 27. Social vulnerability index.59

Figure 28: Ranking of regional vulnerability to climate change before and after population size adjustment.63

Figure 29. Likelihood and magnitude matrix,65

Figure 30. Link between adaptation focus areas and priority risks.77

Figure 31. Key milestones and timelines (Source: CoT, 2013a).85

Figure 32. Procedure for the MRVE for the implementation of the CoT Adaptation plan (adapted from DWAF, 2005).89

27

Acronyms

A2 SRESSpecial Report on Emission Scenarios

AMD Acid mine drainage

AR4Assessment Report Four

CBDCentral Business District

CCAMConformal-Cubic atmospheric model

cCCRCarbonn Cities Climate Registry

CGCMCoupled Global Climate Model

CMIP3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Pro

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