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City of Tshwane Vulnerability Assessment to Climate Change
SACN Programme: Climate change
Document Type: Vulnerability Report
Document Status: Draft Report
Date: 15 September 2014
Joburg Metro Building, 16th floor, 158 Loveday Street, Braamfontein 2017
Tel: +27 (0)11-407-6471 | Fax: +27 (0)11-403-5230 | email: [email protected] | www.sacities.net
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Table of Contents
Acronyms................................................................................................................................................................ i
Glossary................................................................................................................................................................ iii
Executive Summary.............................................................................................................................................. iv
2 Introduction..................................................................................................................................................1
3 Status quo overview.....................................................................................................................................2
2.1 City of Tshwane....................................................................................................................................2
3.1.1 CoT Development Goals..............................................................................................................5
3.1.2 Drivers and pressures linked to climatic variables in the CoT......................................................6
3.1.3 Drivers and pressures linked to non-climatic factors in the CoT..................................................7
3.2 Regional Vulnerability Profiles...........................................................................................................10
3.2.1 Mechanisms /instruments to mainstream climate change adaptation.....................................17
4 Methodology..............................................................................................................................................18
4.1 Stakeholder engagement methodology.............................................................................................18
4.2 Climate modelling methodology: bias-corrected projections from regional climate model..............18
4.3 Climate vulnerability, impact and risk assessment.............................................................................19
4.4 Adaptation options and adaptation plan methodology.....................................................................20
4.5 Monitoring, Reporting, Evaluation and Verification methodology.....................................................20
4.5.1 Limitations.................................................................................................................................20
5 Stakeholder Engagement............................................................................................................................21
5.1 Identification and consultation of stakeholders and community.......................................................21
6 Projections of future climate change over Tshwane...................................................................................25
6.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................................25
6.2 Summary of Findings..........................................................................................................................25
6.2.1 The present-day climate of Tshwane.........................................................................................25
6.3 Observed trends in the climate of Tshwane.......................................................................................28
6.4 A regional context for climate change over Tshwane: projections of future climate change over the north-eastern parts of South Africa................................................................................................................29
6.4.1 Projected changes in temperature over north-eastern South Africa.........................................29
6.4.2 Projected changes in rainfall over north-eastern South Africa..................................................30
6.5 Projected climate futures for Tshwane..............................................................................................32
6.5.1 Projected temperature and rainfall anomalies over time..........................................................32
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6.5.2 Very hot days.............................................................................................................................33
6.5.3 Extreme rainfall events..............................................................................................................34
7 Impacts and vulnerabilities.........................................................................................................................36
7.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................................36
7.1.1 What are the key climate vulnerabilities in CoT?......................................................................36
7.2 Environment......................................................................................................................................37
7.2.1 Biodiversity................................................................................................................................37
7.2.2 Biodiversity in the City of Tshwane............................................................................................37
7.2.3 Threatened Ecosystems in the City of Tshwane........................................................................38
7.2.4 Climate Change and Biodiversity...............................................................................................40
7.3 Water Resources................................................................................................................................40
7.3.1 River Ecosystems.......................................................................................................................40
7.3.2 Water Management Areas........................................................................................................41
7.3.3 Wetlands...................................................................................................................................42
7.3.4 Ground Water...........................................................................................................................43
7.3.5 Climate change and water resources........................................................................................44
7.4 Land cover..........................................................................................................................................46
7.4.1 Land cover in the City of Tshwane.............................................................................................46
7.4.2 Agriculture and Livelihoods.......................................................................................................47
7.5 Air Quality..........................................................................................................................................48
7.5.1 Air Quality in the City of Tshwane.............................................................................................48
7.5.2 Air Quality and Climate change.................................................................................................50
7.6 Extreme Events..................................................................................................................................50
7.6.1 Extreme Weather Events...........................................................................................................51
7.7 Social Vulnerability.............................................................................................................................55
7.7.1 Human settlements...................................................................................................................55
7.7.2 Social Vulnerability....................................................................................................................58
7.7.3 Human health............................................................................................................................59
8 Risk assessment and prioritisation..............................................................................................................64
8.1 Findings: Risk Assessment and prioritisation......................................................................................64
8.2 Prioritisation of key risks....................................................................................................................65
8.3 Adaptations options for key sectors...................................................................................................66
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8.4 Physical sectors..................................................................................................................................67
8.4.1 Natural Environment.................................................................................................................68
8.4.2 Air..............................................................................................................................................69
7.1.1 Water........................................................................................................................................69
8.5 Social-economic sectors.....................................................................................................................70
8.5.1 Human health............................................................................................................................70
8.5.2 Infrastructure (e.g. roads, bridges and storm water drainage system)......................................71
8.5.3 Energy........................................................................................................................................71
8.5.4 Human settlements...................................................................................................................72
8.5.5 Social and economic development............................................................................................73
8.5.6 Disaster Management...............................................................................................................74
9 City of Tshwane Proposed Adaptation Action Plan.....................................................................................75
9.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................................75
9.2 Linking the plan to key adaptation goals in the green economy framework......................................76
9.3 Adaptation Actions for priority risks..................................................................................................78
9.3.1 Risk factor 1: Loss of ecosystem goods and services.................................................................78
9.3.2 Risk factor2: Increased energy demand....................................................................................79
9.3.3 Risk factor 3: Increase in diseases affecting human and animal health.....................................79
9.3.4 Risk factor 4: Damage to infrastructure (storm water systems, roads, bridges)........................80
9.3.5 Risk factor 5: Water insecurity...................................................................................................81
9.3.6 Risk factor 6: Flooding and damage to human settlements and private property due to extreme weather events (floods and hailstorm).......................................................................................................82
9.3.7 Risk factor 7: Increase in sinkholes............................................................................................83
9.3.8 Risk factor 8: Decreased productivity of agro ecosystems affecting food security....................83
9.3.9 Strategic adaptation actions......................................................................................................84
9.4 Milestones and Timelines for implementation of specific actions.....................................................85
9.5 Adaptive Capacity and existing barriers in Tshwane..........................................................................86
9.6 Conclusion..........................................................................................................................................87
10 Monitoring, reporting, verification and evaluation (MRVE)...................................................................88
10.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................................88
10.2 MRVE on implementing Adaptation Plan...........................................................................................88
10.3 Conclusion..........................................................................................................................................95
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11 References..............................................................................................................................................96
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Tables
Table 1: Climatic drivers and pressures (Adapted from UNEP, 2011)...................................................6
Table 2. Drivers and pressures linked to non- climatic variables (Source: CoT, 2013a; CoT, 2014; Regional workshops, June 2014)...........................................................................................................8
Table 3: Mechanisms for integrating climate change adaptation........................................................17
Table 4. Assessing community resilience of the CoT...........................................................................23
Table 5. The present-day climate of Tshwane: Seasonal and annual totals of rainfall (mm)...............27
Table 6. The present-day climate of Tshwane: Seasonal and annual averages for minimum, maximum and mean daily temperatures (°C) over Tshwane. These averages were calculated over the period 1961-1990, using the gridded station data of the CRUTS3.1 data set.................................................28
Table 7: Air Pollutants over CoT..........................................................................................................50
Table 8. Incidents of hailstorms in the CoT (CoT-SACN, 2013)............................................................55
Table 9. The direct and indirect impacts of climate change on NCDs (from Friel et al., 2011)............61
Table 10: Natural environment...........................................................................................................68
Table 11: Air........................................................................................................................................69
Table 12: Water resource....................................................................................................................69
Table 13: Key vulnerabilities and adaptation options related to Human health..................................70
Table 14: Infrastructure.......................................................................................................................71
Table 15: Energy..................................................................................................................................71
Table 16: Human settlements..............................................................................................................72
Table 17: Social economic development.............................................................................................73
Table 18: Disaster management..........................................................................................................74
Table 19: Institutional adaptive capacity and barriers for the CoT......................................................86
Table 20: Proposed MRVE guideline for the CoT(Adapted from: Grafakos and Kaczmarski, 2013)....91
Table 21: Selected examples of indicators to inform the scoring of actions in the proposed framework at relevant milestones throughout the duration of the project........................................92
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Figures
Figure 1. Location of CoT (Source CoT IDP, 2014)..................................................................................3
Figure 2. Administrative regions of Tshwane (Source CoT, 2013a)........................................................4
Figure 3: Population distribution across the regions (Source CoT IDP, 2014)........................................4
Figure 4: Region 1................................................................................................................................11
Figure 5: Region 2................................................................................................................................12
Figure 6: Social vulnerability in Region 3.............................................................................................13
Figure 7: Region 4 depicting the vulnerability of the communities.....................................................14
Figure 8: Region 5, depicting vulnerability of communities.................................................................15
Figure 9. Location of Tshwane in relation to the north-eastern areas of South Africa........................26
Figure 10. The present day annual cycle in rainfall and temperature over Tshwane (calculated from the CRUTS3.1 data set)........................................................................................................................27
Figure 11. Projected change in the annual average temperature over NE South:...............................30
Figure 12. Projected change in average rainfall (mm) over NE South Africa:......................................31
Figure 13. Projected annual temperature (°C,y-axis) and rainfall (mm, x-axis) anomalies for the period 1961-2100 over the City of Tshwane, relative to the 1961-1990 baseline climatology, for the six CCAM downscalings under the A2 scenario...................................................................................33
Figure 14: Simulated annual number of very hot days (days with maximum temperature exceeding 35 °C) for the period 1961-2100 over the City of Tshwane, for the six CCAM downscalings under the A2 scenario..........................................................................................................................................34
Figure 15. Simulated number of extreme precipitation days (24-hr rainfall exceeding 20 mm over an area of 50x50 km2) for the period 1961-2100 over the City of Tshwane, for the six CCAM downscalings under the A2 scenario...................................................................................................35
Figure 16: Biomes and threatened ecosystem status (adopted from BGIS, 2014)..............................39
Figure 17. Water management areas and surface water sources (BGIS, 2014)...................................41
Figure 18: Quality of Ground water.....................................................................................................44
Figure 19. Land cover in the CoT.........................................................................................................47
Figure 20. Air quality rating for the CoT...............................................................................................49
Figure 21: Informal settlements located on the flood line Source (Built Environment, 2014).............51
Figure 22: Mabopane road and bridge washed away during heavy flooding in Northern Pretoria (Source: The Citizen, 2014)..................................................................................................................52
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Figure 23: Informal housing in 50-year flood lines in Region 1 (Soshanguve) (CSIR Built Environment, 2014)...................................................................................................................................................53
Figure 24: Location of informal housing, backyards and traditional houses........................................56
Figure 25. Population density in the CoT.............................................................................................56
Figure 26. Informal settlements and high density clusters located on dolomite.................................57
Figure 27. Social vulnerability index....................................................................................................59
Figure 28: Ranking of regional vulnerability to climate change before and after population size adjustment..........................................................................................................................................63
Figure 29. Likelihood and magnitude matrix,......................................................................................65
Figure 30. Link between adaptation focus areas and priority risks......................................................77
Figure 31. Key milestones and timelines (Source: CoT, 2013a)...........................................................85
Figure 32. Procedure for the MRVE for the implementation of the CoT Adaptation plan (adapted from DWAF, 2005)...............................................................................................................................89
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Acronyms
A2 SRES Special Report on Emission Scenarios
AMD Acid mine drainage
AR4 Assessment Report Four
CBD Central Business District
CCAM Conformal-Cubic atmospheric model
cCCR Carbonn Cities Climate Registry
CGCM Coupled Global Climate Model
CMIP3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3
CO Carbon Monoxide
CO2 Carbon dioxide
CoT City of Tshwane
CR Critically endangered
CRU Climatic Research Unit
CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
DFID Department for International Development
DJF December to February
DOTS Directly Observed Treatment Service
DPME Department of Performance Monitoring and Evaluation
DPSEEA Drivers – Pressures – State – Exposure – Effect – Action
DPSIR Drivers – Pressures – State – Impact – Response
DWAF Department of Water Affairs and Forestry
EN Endangered
GIZ Gesellschaftfür Internationale Zusammenarbeit
GCM Global Circulation Model
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GVA Gross Value Added
GWM&E Government-wide Monitoring & Evaluation
HIA Health Impact Assessment
IDP Integrated Development Plan
IEA integrated environmental assessments
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IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPS Internal Perspective Study
KZNDED KwaZulu-Natal Department of Economic Development
LT Less threatened
LTAS Long-term adaptation strategies
MRVE Monitoring, Reporting, Verification and Evaluation system
NO2 Nitrogen dioxide
O3 Ozone
PM Particulate Matter
RCM Regional Climate Model
RSDF Regional Spatial Development Frameworks
SAAQIS South African Air Quality Information System
SDF Spatial Development Framework
SEED Sustainable Energy and Climate Change
SLF Sustainable Livelihoods Framework
SO2 Sulphur dioxide
SPLUMA Spatial Planning Land Use Management Act
SRES Special Report on Emission Scenarios
TB Tuberculosis
TDS Total dissolved solids
VBD Vector-borne diseases
VOC Volatile Organic Compounds
VU Vulnerable ecosystem
WHO World Health Organisation
WMA Upper Vaal water Management Authority
ZD Zoonotic diseases
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Glossary of Terms used in this report
Adaptation: In human systems, the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects, in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In natural systems, the process of adjustment to actual climate and its effects; human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate.
Adaptive capacity refers to the characteristics of the population or system that will enable them to respond positively to the exposure or the hazard, including climate change and variability.
Biodiversity describes the variety of life on earth in terms of genes, species and ecosystems, and the ecological and evolutionary processes that maintain this diversity. It is a measure of ecosystem health.
Biome is an area of the planet that can be classified according to the plants and animals that live in it. Temperature, soil, and the amount of light and water help determine what life exists in a biome.
Climate Change: A change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use.
Climate extreme (extreme weather or climate event) is the occurrence of a value of a weather or climate variable above (or below) a threshold value near the upper (or lower) ends of the range of observed values of the variable. For simplicity, both extreme weather events and extreme climate events are referred to collectively as ‘climate extremes.’
Climate model is a numerical representation of the climate system based on the physical, chemical, and biological properties of its components, their interactions and feedback processes, and accounting for all or some of its known properties.
Climate predictions or climate forecast is the result of an attempt to produce an estimate of the actual evolution of the climate in the future, e.g., at seasonal, inter-annual or long-term time scales.
Climate variability refers to short-term change in climate caused by changes in the ocean and atmosphere. El Niño is an example of climate variability. Climate variability is not the same as climate change. Climate change also changes climate variability.
Community-based adaptation (CBA) refers to a community-led process based on communities’ priorities, needs, knowledge, and capacities, which should empower people to plan for and cope with the impacts of climate change.
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Disaster refers to severe changes in the normal functioning of a community or a society due to hazardous physical events interacting with vulnerable social conditions, leading to widespread adverse human, material, economic, or environmental effects that require immediate emergency response to satisfy critical human needs and that may require external support for recovery.
Driving forces are the underlying factors related to fundamental societal and world economic processes that promote activities that have a direct impact on the environment for example population growth.
Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) refers to the use of biodiversity and ecosystem services as part of an overall adaptation strategy with main goal to help people to adapt to the adverse effects of climate change. (IUCN).
Exposure refers to contact between the agent, e.g., extreme temperatures and the target, for example, the individual, population group, community or even ecosystem, livelihoods, ecosystem, infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural assets in places that could be adversely affected by hazards or changes in climate.
Flood is the overflowing of the normal confines of a stream or other body of water, or the accumulation of water over areas that are not normally submerged. Floods include river (fluvial) floods, flash floods, urban floods, pluvial floods, sewer floods, coastal floods, and glacial lake outburst floods. General Circulation Model (GCM) is a global, three-dimensional computer model of the climate system which can be used to simulate human-induced climate change.
Hazard refers to the potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, and environmental resources.
Heat waves are defined as a prolonged period of excessive heat, when daily maximum temperatures, for more than five consecutive days, exceeds the daily maximum temperature by the average by 5°C , in relation to the normal period, being 1961–1990.
Impacts refers to the manifestation of vulnerability. The damage caused by climate and weather-related hazards or effects on natural and human systems, referring to the effects on natural and human systems of physical events, of disasters, and of climate change.
Key result areas (KRAs) refers to general areas of outputs or outcomes, or primary responsibilities of an individual, or the core area which each person is accountable for.
Milestone is a scheduled event that indicates the completion of a major event.
Social vulnerability definition within the disaster management field reads as; “the state of individuals, groups, or communities defined in terms of their ability to cope with and adapt to any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being.”.
Prioritisation considers all of one’s responsibilities or chores, and arranges them in such a way that the most important one is done first, then the next most important one, etc.
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Priority risks have a high impact and a high likelihood of happening.
Resilience refers to the amount of disturbance a system can absorb and still remain within the same state or domain of attraction; the degree to which the system is capable of self-organisation.
Risk (climate-related) is the result of interaction of physically defined hazards with the properties of the exposed systems – i.e., their sensitivity or (social) vulnerability. Risk can also be considered as the combination of an event, its likelihood, and its consequences – i.e., risk equals the probability of climate hazard multiplied by a given system’s vulnerability.
Sensitivity refers to the degree of susceptibility to the exposure, meaning the extent to which a system may be directly or indirectly impacted by climate variability or change.
Stakeholder is a person or an organisation that has a legitimate interest in a project or entity, or would be affected by a particular action or policy.
Vulnerability assessments provide valuable insights for policy makers by identifying the circumstances that put people and places at risk, including factors that reduce the capacity of people to respond to changes.
Vulnerability is “the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity”.
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Executive Summary
Climate change poses a threat to meeting the country’s and city’s development goals as it affects both natural and human systems. As such there is need to respond to this threat and minimise the negative impacts of climate change Climate change and its impacts are set to affect urban areas significantly, with the urban poor likely to be the most vulnerable to these impacts. City of Tshwane (CoT), like any other city faces the same challenges of providing for a growing population and economic sector while attempting to alleviate poverty and reduce inequality, in the face of increasing climate change.
Secondary literature and a few stakeholder workshops with City of Tshwane sector departments provided information on impacts of changes in weather variables on different sectors, adaptation options, stakeholder roles and responsibilities. A questionnaire was administered in an attempt to get more input from sector department representatives including the adaptive capacity of the City and identification of barriers to effective to adaptation. The questionnaire also sought to validate information regarding the planning documents used by sector departments as well as the adaptation projects they are currently implementing in their respective departments. Climate change projections for temperature and rainfall were modelled using a variety of climate models and downscaled climate models. An analysis of existing high-resolution projections of future climate change over the Tshwane region has been performed for this purpose. GIS was used to map the environmental and some of the social factors that will be affected by climate change in the City of Tshwane. The ranking and prioritization was conducted qualitatively, through combining inputs from the other chapters of the report to derive priority risks for adaptation.
The climate modelling project for the City of Tshwane indicate increases in temperature of between 4 and 6.5°C by the turn of the century, with increases of between 2 - 3°C expected by the mid-term (2040 – 2060). Projection for rainfall suggests less rain over the CoT region in future with more hot days predicted. The occurrence of extreme weather related events such as droughts, floods, hailstorms and heat waves are expected to increase in frequency and intensity affecting especially the vulnerable population groups, as well as essential infrastructure and economic development. Flash floods in Tshwane have caused damage to roads and bridges, homes, and also exacerbated the risk of sink holes in parts of Region 3 and Region 4. These impacts result in the vulnerability of key sectors that affect the sustainable development of the city. Vulnerability assessments provide planners and decision makers with useful information that allows them to make informed decisions on managing their built and natural environment and also take advantage of opportunities presented by climate change.
The seven regions of the CoT were ranked according to their social, health and environmental vulnerability with a ranking of low, medium or high. The social vulnerability also gives an indication of coping capacity. Region 1 is ranked highly vulnerable due to the informal settlements and high
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population density and its location within the flood lines. Regions 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 have medium to high vulnerability and Region 7 has a low to medium vulnerability.
A myriad of key vulnerability sectors have been identified in the CoT including human health, human settlements that are at risk of flooding, agro-ecosystems that provide food security, water security, both supply and quality, high energy demand for domestic and industrial use and ecosystems goods and services.
The climate change projections as well as the identified key vulnerabilities and the risk factors were ranked and prioritised to generate key adaptation options for the city in order to build resilience to climate change and its impacts. Identifying adaptation options for the sectors most at risk, allows for the response to the threats of climate change. This process requires that both human and natural systems adjust to actual or expected changes in climate and associated effects and build resilience. Risk assessment and prioritization of these risks identified eight priority risks for the CoT. These are
Risk factor 1: Loss of ecosystem goods and services
Risk factor2: Increase in energy demand
Risk factor 3: Increase in diseases affecting human and animal health
Risk factor 4: Damage to public infrastructure (storm water systems, roads, bridges)
Risk factor 5: Water insecurity
Risk factor 6: Flooding and damage to human settlements and private property
Risk factor 7: Increase in sinkholes in dolomite areas?
Risk factor 8: Decrease in productivity of agro ecosystems affecting food security
A variety of adaptation options are presented in this report and could be adopted by sectors to address or minimise the impact of the priority risks so that the CoT can still meet their development goals. Adaptation focus areas identified in the Framework for a Green Economy Transition to be critical for climate change adaptation and building resilience of the City are also linked to the priority risks and key adaptation actions. Climate change vulnerability in CoT is a result of a combination of social, economic and ecological factors such as the ageing infrastructure (e.g. Region 1), increasing population demand on infrastructure which increases pressure on the systems such as the storm water drainage system.
Responding to these risk factors would require partnerships between sectors such as the human settlements, roads and storm water infrastructure planning, social development, disaster management and emergency services. Effective and efficient adaptation should have input from different stakeholders at various levels of government, private sector, civil society, researchers and
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operational implementers. Local government therefore needs to anticipate challenges as there is uncertainty with regard to magnitude, timing and distribution of climate change impacts.
The CoT has some initiatives in place that influence their ability to cope with climate change related hazards. These include a functional disaster management department and establishment of sustainability office that drive the transition to a climate resilient city. There are also community based organisations and non-governmental organisations that were established to strengthen adaptation at grassroots level. There are also some barriers with in the city that inhibit their transition to a resilient city and these include uncertainty on extent of climate change, limited financial allocation for maintenance of adaptation projects and attitude of officials who are unreceptive to new ways of doing things.
A monitoring, reporting, verification and evaluation system (MRVE) is proposed as an internal management tool to monitor progress of the implementation plan as well as to provide information on the gaps between the expectation of the project and the results achieved from the actions contained in the adaptation plan. The MRVE of the adaptation plan will help the City achieve its long-term goal of being a resilient city as this provides learning through feedback into the planning and decision-making process.
This document should continually be updated as more information becomes available. Methods such as cost-benefit analysis could be conducted in the future to inform the cost of adaptation in the CoT.
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2 Introduction
Climate change is a multi-disciplinary, global phenomenon that is increasingly recognized as a one of the biggest challenges of the 21st Century, with the potential to reverse developmental gains of the past. Given its potential impact on development, climate change has become an essential component of development-oriented decision-making, especially being integrated into the planning process at local level. In order to support sub-national/local municipal areas to become resilient to anticipated climate change, it is important for the nature of vulnerability to be understood from a sub-national perspective and for such an understanding to be reflected in relevant development strategies that are formulated at various levels of governance for example local, sub-national and national (UNDP, 2011).
The climate change debate has conventionally been associated with images of vulnerable rural populations, with the phrase conjuring pictures of a parched earth and the isolated smallholder farmers dependent on the soil and the natural environment for their livelihood (UN Habitat, 2014). Nonetheless, in a world where half of the population is urban, with an estimated 70% of the world’s population expected to be living in cities by 2025, that paradigm is changing fast (UN Habitat, 2014; UNEP, 2011). Cities characterize not only hotspots for vulnerability to changing weather and climate patterns, but are also crucial epicentres for innovative response to these changes.
Cities are increasingly expected to undertake concrete actions to adapt to sea level rise, floods, droughts and other natural disasters exacerbated by climate change and climate variability. The impacts of climate change differ depending on geographical location, from rural and urban areas, coastal to mountain cities, and low-latitude cities. Cities are considered the most vulnerable areas to climate change, and are often where the effects of urbanisation and climate change converge in dangerous ways (UN Habitat, 2014) including extreme weather related disasters, such as storm surges, floods and droughts. Mapping the most at-risk areas of a city with relevant climate impact-agents is thus a fundamental step in understanding how to reduce a city’s vulnerability (UN Habitat, 2014). Understanding the city’s vulnerability will inform the development of strategies for adaptation to climate change, as well build the resilience of cities and its populations to climate change. It is essential for cities to adapt to both short-term and long-term trends associated with climate change including increased precipitation, inland floods, more frequent and stronger storms, and periods of more extreme heat and cold (UN Habitat, 2014).
Cities themselves contribute substantially to climate change, consuming 78% of the world’s energy and producing more than 60% of all carbon dioxide and significant amounts of other greenhouse gas
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emissions, mainly through energy generation, vehicles, industry, and biomass use. Conversely, cities can play a critical role in mitigating climate change through various strategies including reduction of energy consumption, promotion of renewable sources of energy and trading of carbon credits under the Flexible Mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol. The latter is becoming a lucrative business for ‘green’ and ‘clean’ cities. Green-house gas emissions inventories and abatement potential assessment are becoming vital tools for cities’ climate mitigation planning (UN Habitat, 2014).
Cities are also economic hubs, with most of the vital economic and social infrastructure, government facilities and assets being located in cities. The most climate change-affected populations are, as mentioned earlier, likely to be the urban poor especially those located in informal areas i.e. slum dwellers, who tend to live in areas prone to flooding and other natural disasters areas (UNEP, 2011). Addressing climate change in cities, despite the threats faced, has been problematic, due to, for example, the absence of applicable policies and action plans; existence of regulations on urban planning and environment which do not incorporate the management of climate change; slow response to climate disasters due to lack of capacity and resources; and lack of public awareness on climate variability and climate change-induced hazard mitigation. Cities have the potential to diminish the causes of climate change (mitigation) and effectively protect themselves from its impacts (adaptation).
Local government, especially municipalities, are well-placed to develop and implement effective adaptation strategies to climate change, given their position as the scale of government closest to the people with access to local knowledge and experience. Such attributes are important in designing strategies that address the specific vulnerabilities of local areas, communities, socio-economic activities and ecosystems in the context of climate change. This important role is recognized in the National Climate Change Response Strategy and National Framework on Sustainable Development, and as indicated by the South African Cities Network.
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3 Status quo overview
2.1 City of Tshwane
The City of Tshwane (CoT) is located in the Gauteng Province and is South Africa’s capital city. It is the largest of the three metropolitan in the province covering an area of 6345km² which is the third largest in the world in terms of land mass (CoT IDP, 2014). The total population for the CoT is estimated to be slightly above 2.9 million (Stats SA, 2011; CoT IDP, 2014). Error: Reference sourcenot found shows the location of Tshwane in South Africa. Error: Reference source not found below shows the location of the seven administrative regions of Tshwane followed by the population distribution across these regions in Figure 3.
Figure 1. Location of CoT (Source CoT IDP, 2014)
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Figure 2. Administrative regions of Tshwane (Source CoT, 2013a)
Figure 3: Population distribution across the regions (Source CoT IDP, 2014)
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CoT population consists of 75.9% African (mostly in region 1, 3, 5, 6), 20.2% whites (mostly in region 3, 4 and 6), 2.1% Indian/Asian (majority in region 3 and 4) and 2% Coloured (majority in region 5) (CoT, 2013:57a). Of this population 71.9% are in the working age group (15-64). The dependency ratio is 39% i.e. the number of people relying on the working age group (0-14 and those above the age of 65). The dependency ratio highlights the proportion of the population who are vulnerable to changes in temperature, rainfall and extreme weather events due to socio economic factors such as education, health and income. Unemployment in Tshwane is about 24.2% and has a Gini Coefficient of 0.63 highlighting high levels of inequality (CoT, 2014). Inequality is prevalent especially in townships, informal settlements and merged areas in the north of the city. The city is however one of the fastest growing municipalities in South Africa in 2014 its Gross Value Added (GVA) was calculated to be R275 billion.
The Tshwane Health District serves 2.7 million people, with 74.2% of these without health insurance. The HIV infection rate in 2010 was 26.1% - below the country average of 30%. The CoT strategies to fight HIV/AIDS and TB are proving to be a successful as shown by the increase in HIV/AIDS clinic and TB cure rates.
About 142 000 people are employed in the informal sector and there are about 150 informal settlements across the city making up 18% of Tshwane’s dwelling type (CoT, 2014) , The CoT has been experiencing urban sprawl where by the city has extended its boundaries to incorporate new areas over time. Apart from a growing population and economic growth the CoT faces challenges in meeting the needs of its residents in the face of climate change. This affects the city’s ability to achieve sustainable development and to also meet its Vision 2055 long-term development goals. Hence there is need to understand the vulnerability context and develop strategies to adapt and build resilience of the city.
3.1.1 CoT Development Goals
During the assessment of risks and vulnerability in Tshwane it is important to consider the CoT’s development goals. Development initiatives in Tshwane have been aligned to the City of Tshwane Vision 2055 which sets out its aspirational long term vision and outcomes which are anticipated for the city. Tshwane Vision 2055 highlights the City’s forty year plan aimed at improving the lives of the current generation by meeting their developmental needs and also plan for the future generations (CoT, 2013a). The long-term vision of the City is that;
In 2055, Tshwane is liveable, resilient and inclusive whose citizens enjoy a high quality of life, have access to social, economic and enhanced political freedoms and where citizens are
partners in the development of the African Capital City of excellence (CoT, 2013a).
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As such, current policy and planning documents contribute towards the outcomes outlined in Tshwane Vision 2055 as this is the point of reference for the City’s development pathway. Some of the outcomes linked to climate change adaptation include:
A resilient and resource-efficient city A growing economy that is inclusive, diversified and competitive Quality infrastructure development that supports liveable communities An equitable city that supports human happiness, social cohesion, safety and healthy
citizens
These outcomes also seek to address key national challenges that have been highlighted in the National Development Plan (NDP) Vision 2030. These include a resource-intensive economy, high disease burden, unemployment and poverty (NPC, 2011). Some of these challenges are also likely to be aggravated by climate change, for example unemployment and poverty, when natural resource based economic activities such as agriculture and forestry become less productive due to changes in temperature and rainfall. Increasing poverty and unemployment are likely to increase the number of vulnerable people. The next section looks at the drivers and pressures of climate change vulnerability in the CoT.
3.1.2 Drivers and pressures linked to climatic variables in the CoT
Driving forces are activities that have a direct impact on the environment for example population growth (UNEP, 2011:10). These can be economic, demographic or political. Pressures are the immediate cause of the status quo i.e. the vulnerable context where people and their assets are exposed to disasters. For example risk to informal settlement fires is not generated through poor construction material or high densities but rather it is a result of underlying factors such as political systems (e.g. apartheid), poverty, unemployment and inequality. These factors drive people to live in unsafe environments as they are unable to afford safe buildings and have limited protection from governing authorities (Wisner, et. al., 2003).
The following section draws from the work done on city risk profiling as well as the assessment of current and future climate trends and projections. It highlights the climatic and non –climatic vulnerability drivers and pressures in Tshwane which are also areas in need of intervention for effective adaptation. These are listed in Table 1 together with some indicators that can be used to assess vulnerability to these variables.
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Table 1: Climatic drivers and pressures (Adapted from UNEP, 2011)
Climatic variable Vulnerability in Tshwane Indicators of vulnerability and exposure
Increased temperature Increased risk and incidence of fires e.g. Region 2
Creates the urban heat island where temperatures in Tshwane is slightly higher than surrounding areas
Increased atmospheric pollution with more pollutants such as carbon monoxide, benzene and nitrogen dioxide
Increased risk of vector borne diseases such as malaria. In 2012 6 people in region 1 and region 6 diagnosed with malaria yet they had not been to malaria high risk areas (M&G, 2012)
Records of temperature – average, maximum, minimum. Frequency of thermal events.
Climatic zoning (largely temperature-related) of the city.
Percentage of green areas (with trees and gardens) in the city. Distribution of these areas.
Policy and projects that promote green spaces.
Changes in quantity and distribution of rainfall
Decreased rainfall potentially results in reduced annual surface water run-off, reductions in mean flows of rivers and loss of biodiversity e.g. Hennops river and Rietvlei dam
Water scarcity (frequency, extent and duration).
Increase in drought duration and frequency.
Location of areas in the city which are susceptible to drought
Extreme weather events frequency and intensity likely to increase
Extreme events such as flash floods which have caused damage to roads and bridges in areas such as Ga-Rankuwa, Soshanguve and Centurion.
Flash floods also increase the risk of sinkholes as old sinkholes are enlarged and new ones emerge e.g. Region 3 and 4
Heat waves across the City resulting in human discomfort e.g January 2013 and January 2014
Hailstorms which have destroyed homes in areas such as Mamelodi West
Historical record of extreme events. Type, magnitude and size of city area affected.
Location in the city of zones that have experienced extreme events.
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Drivers and pressures linked to non-climatic factors in the CoT
3.2 Regional Vulnerability Profiles
The vulnerability assessment of the regions used a combination of the social vulnerability index, the human health and wellness, and the environmental factors in Chapter 6 and considered both climatic and none climatic factors as indicated in the tables above. The index is used to describe the characteristics of a community or group of people at a sub-place level. The social vulnerability map indicates the inability of people or settlements to cope with, withstand or adapt to the impacts of multiple stressors and is an adequate response to measuring and identifying the location of vulnerable communities (Birkmann, 2006). The result of the composite social vulnerability index is showed in Figure 27. Social vulnerability index. in chapter 6.
Region 1: High Vulnerability
Region 1 is situated in the north-western part of the City and comprises of three main zones. These include a southern zone (Akasia, Rosslyn and Pretoria North), a northern zone (Klipkruisfontein, Ga-Rankuwa, Mabopane, Winterveld and Soshanguve areas) and the rural zone in the west CoT 2055, 2013). The region is dominated by a very large population that is considered to be extremely vulnerable. Hot spots can be observed in Winterveld, Mabopane, Soshanguve and Ga-Rankuwa. The southern parts of the region except for the sub-places of Winternest AH and Pretoria North are not considered to be vulnerable (compare to Figure 4). The region also has a high vulnerability for human health and wellness, both before and after population has been added, highlighting high vulnerability for impacts of gradual climate change, extreme precipitation and the extreme temperatures. In terms of settlement vulnerability, the northern part of the Region accommodates a third of the City’s population in low-income settlements that includes subsidised housing and informal settlements. These settlements are located within the flood lines making them vulnerable to annual flooding.
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Figure 4: Region 1
Region 2: Medium to High Vulnerability
Region 2 has three main zones, the urban north zone, central and eastern agriculture and conservation zones, and the southern zone (CoT 2055, 2013). Despite the rural nature and low population density, the areas of Hammanskraal, Majaneng, Stinkwater, Kudube, Dilopye and Temba have a very high social vulnerability while the southern part (expect for a few agricultural and small holdings) is not considered to be vulnerable (see Figure 5). In terms of human health and well-being, the region showed high vulnerability before the population was added on, resulting in low, medium and high vulnerability to gradual climate change, extreme precipitation and extreme temperature. The northern part of the region, with the highest population density is also located within a flood line, making them vulnerable to flooding.
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Figure 5: Region 2
The unemployment rate among the economically active group in the region is at 28%, which is higher than the average for the CoT and second highest in the City (Region 1 has the highest unemployment rate), which negatively influences the population’s ability to cope. At least a third (33.2%) of the population is vulnerable to any hazard in terms of their age and will most likely have to be assisted in the case of an extreme event, and 0.10% of children under 5 years of age are already severely malnourished, thus vulnerable to food insecurity related to climate change.
Region 2 is thus also vulnerable to climate change, although the southern part is less vulnerable in terms of coping. The central and eastern parts, being agriculture and conservation areas, will be more affected by a change in climate than the northern and southern areas.
Region 3: Medium to High Vulnerability
Region 3 is composed of the central business district (CBD) of the City, the Brooklyn, and Hatfield metropolitan nodes. The eastern two-thirds of the region is mostly urbanised whereas the western third is mostly rural. Pockets of high and very high vulnerability can be observed in Attridgeville, Saulsville, Jeffersville, Phumolong and Lotus Gardens while vulnerability is present in areas such as Sunnyside, Laudium, Kwaggasrand, Danville, Elandspoort, Salvokop and Lindopark. The region has several sub-places that pose zero to very little social vulnerability; these include Waterkloof, Brooklyn, Riviera, Roseville etc. The human health and wellbeing vulnerability indicates that under both scenarios (with population and without) the region has low vulnerability to all three, elements, gradual climate change, extreme precipitation and temperature. Parts of Region 3 are located in the flood line, making them susceptible to flooding while the southernmost section is located on dolomitic ground making it vulnerable to sink holes (Figure 6).
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Figure 6: Social vulnerability in Region 3
The area is economically extremely vulnerable to severe events, due to the high concentration of business, the presence of valuable buildings and the presence of infrastructure such as the train stations, hospitals and universities. The area is also vulnerable in terms of the number of residents as 20.0% of the population of the CoT live in Region 3, constituting the third highest concentration of residents (CoT IDP, 2013-14). In addition nearly a quarter (23.8%) of the residents is vulnerable to any hazard in terms of their age, as they are children below 15 years or elderly (above 65 years) and at least 0.10% of the under 5-year-olds are vulnerable to food insecurity as they are severely malnourished.
Region 4: Low to Medium Vulnerability
Region 4 is situated in the south-western portion of the City. The Region borders on the area of jurisdiction of the City of Johannesburg Metropolitan Municipality, Ekurhuleni Metropolitan Municipality as well as Mogale City to the west. The Region, served by both north-south and eastwest irst order roads (highways), links it to the rest of Gauteng and the broader region. The Region consists of an urban area to the east and a rural area to the west both of which are currently under pressure for development.There are three distinct pockets of socially vulnerable communities 1) Mooiplaas, 2) Olievenhoutbos and 3) three sub-places that are part of Saulsville and Attridgeville. Heuweloord and Laudium also display a level of vulnerability. There are also many areas in Centurion that has little to no vulnerability. The region is rated to have low vulnerability to gradual climate change, extreme precipitation and temperature, in terms human health and wellbeing. Regarding settlement vulnerability, this region is affected by dolomite, which despite not being climate change related increases the vulnerability of the region to sink holes (see Figure 7).
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Figure 7: Region 4 depicting the vulnerability of the communities
About 13% of the population (379 335) of the CoT live in Region 4. The unemployment rate among the economically active group is at 13% the lowest in the City, adding to their coping ability in the case of an event. The percentage children under 5 years with severe malnutrition are also at 0.05% the second lowest in the City, indicating that the region will be less vulnerable in the case of food insecurity as a result of climate change. The percentage of the population considered to be vulnerable to any hazard due to the fact that they fall within the categories of children or the aged is 22.8%, which is lower than the percentage for any of the other regions.
Region 5: Medium to High Vulnerability
Region 5 has rather weak spatial structure characterised by heavy through traffic, vast open spaces, small economic centres and enormous development pressure from residential areas from Tshwane pushing further and further eastward. Region 5 is a rural area characterised by nature conservation (including the Dinokeng Blue IQ project of Gauteng), tourism and mixed agricultural land uses. Mining, especially in Cullinan provides work opportunities for communities in the area (CoT, 2013, 2013). Both Refilwe and Onverwacht have extremely high vulnerability with Refilewe hosting almost 20 000 people. There are several small holdings with a presence of vulnerability as well. Region 5 has large water and sanitation services backlogs. The need is mainly reflected in the informal settlements that are located in the various wards which although they are small and relatively contained, are spread throughout the area, forming low-income residential enclaves (CoT).Regarding
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vulnerability of human health and wellbeing, the region is rated low after the population was added but medium before the population was added (see Figure 8).
(
Figure 8: Region 5, depicting vulnerability of communities
Being a rural area, most probably dependent on farming practices, makes Region 5 vulnerable to the effects of climate change such as floods and droughts. In addition, the many informal houses make the occupants more vulnerable to extreme temperatures and the relatively high proportion of malnourished children make the population more vulnerable to food insecurity.
Region 6: Medium to High Vulnerability
Region 6 faces the greatest development pressure, with almost all the developable land within the southern section of the Region having been developed. The uncontrolled development places a burden on the existing saturated road infrastructure. The south-eastern section has the highest income per capita, but here is also a huge concentration of people in the north-east quadrant with no to low income. The north-eastern section of the Region accommodates mostly low- income communities and industrial land uses. Mamelodi, Nelmapius and Eersterus have high to very high vulnerability with pockets of vulnerability detected in Silverton and Pretoriuspark as well. The rest of the region has very little to no vulnerability. The region is classified as having medium vulnerability to all three impacts, gradual climate change, extreme precipitation and temperatures. Parts of region 6, especially where the informal settlements are located is within the floodline, making the area vulnerable to flooding.
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The south-eastern part of Region 6 has the highest income per capita of all seven regions but the north-eastern part of the region has a large concentration of people in the low-income and no-income groups, which makes this area more vulnerable (in terms of coping). In general the people in these low-income areas are mainly living in informal houses, poorly isolated against extreme temperatures and vulnerable to floods.
There are a high number of businesses and retailers in Region 6 and the second most important industrialised area in the CoT is also found here, which makes the region economically vulnerable in the case of a climate change event such as a flood.
Region 7: Low to Medium Vulnerability
Region 7 has the second largest geographical land area and contains some of the best farming land in Gauteng with more than 80% of land arable, but agriculture currently makes an insignificant contribution (less than 5%) to the City’s economy. The most significant contributors to the Region’s economy are manufacturing, services, financial, and trade. The tourism sector is regarded as small, but a developing sector. The Region includes a few prominent land uses of strategic significance to the City of Tshwane such as Bronkhorstspruit town area, Ekandustria industrial area and Bronkhorstspruit dam. Areas of high vulnerability include Sokhulumi, Enkangala, Rethabiseng and Zithobeni. Region 7 has low vulnerability to gradual climate change, extreme precipitation and extreme temperature. No flood lines were available for mapping for this area, however the r egion is ranked high in terms of vulnerability to extreme precipitation, and medium in terms of both gradual climate change and extreme heat events.
Only 3.8% (109765) of the population of the CoT lives in Region 7. About a third of these (32.5%) are considered vulnerable to any hazard in terms of age, which is the second highest of all regions. The unemployment rate among the economically active group, is 26%, the third highest of the seven regions, indicating that this group is more vulnerable to the effects of climate change in terms of their ability to cope. However, the region has the lowest proportion of children below the age of 5 years with severe malnutrition, indicating that the smallest number of children vulnerable to food insecurity related to climate change is in Region 7.
In community surveys done in the CoT, it was determined that unemployment, poverty, job creation, skills development and crime are the five main issues raised in all regions, thus issues were mostly related to the ability to cope.
The following section looks at mechanisms such as policies or management instruments that can be used to mainstream climate change adaptation in the CoT.
3.2.1 Mechanisms /instruments to mainstream climate change adaptation
These outcomes also seek to address key national challenges that have been highlighted in the National Development Plan 2030 Vision. These include resource intensive economy, high disease
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burden, unemployment and poverty (NPC, 2011). Some of these challenges are also likely to be aggravated by climate change, for example unemployment and poverty, when natural resource based economic activities such as agriculture and forestry become less productive due to changes in temperature and rainfall. Increasing poverty and unemployment are likely to increase the number of vulnerable people.
A wide range of development plans exist at sector level which could be policy, process, planning or management instruments. These can be used as mechanisms or instruments to mainstream climate change adaptation in Tshwane. Table 2 highlights some of these mechanisms available to guide and coordinate the implementation of the adaptation strategies of the various sectors.
Table 2: Mechanisms for integrating climate change adaptation
Mechanism /Instrument type
Examples for City of Tshwane
Policy instruments
These provide guiding principles for urban decision-makers
Sustainable Energy and Climate Change Action Plan, Framework for a Green
Economy Transition, Tshwane Vision 2055 Spatial Planning Land Use Management Act (SPLUMA), Gauteng Town and Townships Ordinance, Food security policy
Process Instruments
provide ways of doing something, steps that can be taken to reach a desired goal
Baseline studies eg. risk and vulnerability assessments, economic and social sector status
Planning instruments
Offer a variety of methods by which urban development plans can be developed and implemented
State of environment report , Strategic Environmental Assessment, Tshwane Metropolitan Spatial Development Framework, Regional Spatial Development Frameworks (RSDF) promote densification along public transport routes, Tshwane Town Planning Scheme, Tshwane Open Space Frame work, CoT IDP, Agricultural Development Plan
Management Instruments
Are the tools to direct and administer urban planning decisions
Environmental audits Sustainable Energy and Climate Change (SEED) programme Green Building Codes, Building Regulations, Regional development plans
It is essential therefore that local government try to develop strategies to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change that would simultaneously help to alleviate poverty. Section 10 of the National Climate Change Response Policy (2009) notes that all government departments and state-owned enterprises need to review their policies, strategies, legislation, regulations and plans falling within their jurisdictions to ensure full alignment with the policy document within two years of its publication. The City of Tshwane has been proactive and has integrated climate change adaptation into their strategic priorities and long term goals as climate change impacts are felt at local level.
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4 Methodology
4.1 Stakeholder engagement methodology
Key instruments used to elicit information from stakeholders were workshops and focus group discussions. The workshops provided a platform for the project team to engage with CoT officials and get inputs into the project as well as present research outcomes and also get feedback. Attendance at the CoT sector department workshops varied from three to 30 people per workshop. Focus group discussions were conducted with regional representatives from three regions to gain insights on the regional risk and vulnerability profiles, drivers and pressures of vulnerability, livelihood strategies and the institutions who are working in the regions.
4.2 Climate modelling methodology: bias-corrected projections from a regional climate model
The main tool for the projection of future climate change is the global circulation model (GCM). The projections of these models form the basis of the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In order to simulate future climate, GCMs are forced with the changing concentrations of greenhouse gases, for both high and low mitigation scenarios. The models subsequently simulate the response of the global climate system to the enhanced greenhouse effect. It has become conventional to examine the output of many different GCMs, in order to gain some understanding of the uncertainty associated with the projected changes. Uncertainty in the projections exists because of the natural variability of the climate system, but also because of the systematic errors and imperfections of GCMs. Another problematic aspect of GCM projections of future climate change is the course spatial resolution of such simulations. Typically, these models provide projections of future climate change at a resolution of about 200 km in the horizontal. This resolution is too course to study the more detailed aspects of climate change over an area as small as the Tshwane region. Regional climate models (RCMs) are used to generate more detailed projections of future climate change over areas of interest, through the downscaling of GCM projections to high spatial resolution.
An ensemble of detailed projections of future climate change over southern Africa, obtained using a regional climate model, is examined in this report. The model used is the conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM), a variable-resolution global atmospheric model developed by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in Australia (McGregor, 2005). When applied in stretched-grid mode, the model provides a flexible and computationally efficient way of downscaling GCM projections to high resolution over an area of interest. The projections described here were obtained by downscaling the simulations of six GCMs described in Assessment Report Four (AR4) of the IPCC to high resolution (50 km in the horizontal) over southern
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Africa. All six GCM projections are for the period 1961-2100, and for the A2 emission scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). The A2 SRES scenario is a low mitigation (high emissions) scenario in which CO2 concentrations double (compared to pre-industrial values) by about the mid-21st century. Detailed descriptions of the CGCMs used can be found in Malherbe et al. (2013). The CCAM downscaling procedure over Africa is described in more detail by Engelbrecht et al. (2011). The model’s ability to simulate the present-day characteristics of regional climate has been rigorously documented for southern Africa (e.g. Engelbrecht et al., 2009) and for various other climatological regions (e.g. Lal et al., 2008; Nunez and McGregor, 2007). In order to reduce systematic differences between the model simulated present-day climate and observations, a bias-correction procedure was applied to the simulated monthly averages of rainfall and temperature. The long-term (1961-1990) monthly averages of rainfall and precipitation of the CRU TS3.1 data set was used for this purpose. Precipitation has been corrected with a multiplicative correction factor, while all other variables have been corrected with an additive factor.
4.3 Climate vulnerability, impact and risk assessment
Hazard analysis was undertaken to get a better understanding of the hazards that affect Tshwane, the areas at risk to the various hazards and factors that make them vulnerable. Various concepts and tools of mapping vulnerability were considered (see Annexure 1). The mapping of physical and social elements in Tshwane was conducted in a GIS environment to map biodiversity, water (surface and ground), land cover, air quality, human health and human settlements. Most of the spatial data used in the mapping of the physical elements was provided by City of Tshwane and SANBI GIS unit- BGIS. Other sources of data include the South African Risk and Vulnerability Atlas (SARVA) and the Long Term Adaptation Scenarios (LTAS). The climate change impacts of these sectors are based on national studies done under LTAS and are mainly descriptive and were adapted for CoT. Risk assessment was done using input from CoT workshops with sector departments and this was triangulated with the secondary material to identify which hazards present the highest risk to the CoT and which regions and sectors are at greatest risk. The project team used this information to prioritise these risks depending on the magnitude and likelihood of their negative impacts on the CoT and this information was to inform adaptation plan.
4.4 Adaptation options and adaptation plan methodology
Secondary material provided information on the wide range of adaptation options that the CoT can explore in the now and in the future. These have been presented here and can be a starting point for sector departments that currently do not have any adaptation projects to look at. In a workshop with CoT sector representatives a questionnaire was administered to those who were present and was also sent by email to those who could not attend the meeting. The questionnaire sought to identify current adaptation actions/projects, capacity and/or constraints to adapt as well as mechanisms available in the CoT to mainstream climate change. The questionnaire required participants to validate sectors at risk to the different climate variables and highlighted sectors that have taken up adaptation actions in the past five years. See Annexure 5 for copy of questionnaire, workshop attendance register (Annexure 3a) and list of respondents (Annexure 3b). The project
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team used the results of the risk assessment process to identify key adaptation actions that the CoT should to address the most significant risks.
4.5 Monitoring, Reporting, Evaluation and Verification methodology
The climate change response strategies for other South African cities were reviewed. It was found that MRVE frameworks were not included in these strategies. A literature review was done to get background information on monitoring and evaluation and how it has been applied in the public domain. In order to understand the context or need for cities to develop MRVE frameworks, the Durban Adaptation Charter and the Hyogo Framework were also reviewed. The Charter highlighted the need for signatories (Tshwane is signatory) to develop MRVE systems, whereas the Hyogo Framework focuses on disaster risk management. The draft National Climate Change Response Monitoring and Evaluation System which measures and monitors the country’s implementation of climate change responses was also reviewed. It highlights national indicators that will be used to assess effective implementation of climate change projects. The proposed MRVE framework for the CoT was informed by the work done by Grafakos and Kaczmarski (2013).
4.5.1 Limitations
It was not possible to get community stakeholder input which would have enhanced several sections of the report and its outputs e.g. prioritisation of risk, adaptive capacity and barriers to effective adaptation and prioritisation of adaptation actions.
Input from sector departments was usually not sufficient to allow for better analysis of some aspects such as the degree to which sectors were vulnerable to climate change and identification of sectors that have taken a lead in climate change adaptation in the past five years.
Time constraints made it difficult to engage all the sector departments to get their input into this report.
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5 Stakeholder Engagement
The National Climate Change Policy highlights the importance of stakeholder engagement and partnerships in responding to climate change in South Africa. Effective and sustainable disaster risk reduction and adaptation requires input from various stakeholders’ e.g. private sector, government departments and civil society. Equipped with adequate information the private sector can for example play a key role in funding climate response projects. Civil society can work with vulnerable communities and ensure that early warning information is communicated timeously and also inform government of local level climate change related issues (The Government of the Republic of South Africa, 2011). Stakeholder engagement process was used here to assess how climate change affected different stakeholders and sectors with in the metropolitan. It also helped in identifying the vulnerable sectors/regions, existing and potential adaptation actions. This has an enabling effect for the CoT, in that the knowledge held by different stakeholders about the city’s vulnerabilities and capabilities can be used by local government to design better and practical adaptation strategies that have public buy in.
5.1 Identification and consultation of stakeholders and community
Stakeholders who participated in this study were mostly from the CoT sector departments and regions. The questions used to gather information from the stakeholders is included in annexure 2. In one forum a few community representatives attended however it was decided that the full scale community engagement would be done at a later stage and this should be done after the CoT has done some climate change community awareness campaigns to equip communities so that they can fully engage. The key outcome of the stakeholder engagement in this project was to make sector departments aware of the importance of climate impacts in their spheres of responsibility. This would give them a better understanding of the different adaptation actions that can be taken by their respective sectors to reduce vulnerability. These are presented in a chapter of this report. It is important to note that effective and efficient implementation of adaptation actions can only be achieved when stakeholders understand how they are affected by climate change and see how they can contribute towards climate change resilience.
Regional representatives who participated in this study identified key hazards affecting each region, drivers and pressure of vulnerability, livelihood as well as coping strategies in the regions. They also identified the institutions or organizations operating in the areas, including their roles. They also contributed to the development of the city adaptation plan by identifying the risk factors that should be considered for action. A list of the stakeholders that were engaged can be found in Annexure 3a and 3b. The key issues emanating from this engagement are summarised in Table 3 below.
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Table 3. Assessing community resilience of the CoT
Resilience characteristics
What do we know about the current status?
What are the strengths/opportunities in the CoT?
What are the perceived gaps? What are the challenges? What are the elements of resilience?
Leadership Communities take the initiative to assist those in need during disasters (servant leadership).
Top structures within the municipality are aware of climate change and championing adaptation to it.
The mayor of the municipality is driving the issue of climate change adaptation.
Perception of top-down leadership when engaging communities.
Engage communities differently (i.e. in a bottom-up non-paternalistic manner).
Robust and cooperative relationships between the municipality and communities.
Servant leadership within communities.
Agency The municipality understands the risks posed to it and communities. There are initiatives and measures in place to deal with eventualities.
The various sectors within the municipality do take the issue of climate change seriously. A number of regions were noted for their resilience in coping with disasters despite of inadequate resources in their disposal.
Perception of top-down leadership when engaging communities.
There are communication loopholes between the city staff and existing community initiatives especially in the informal sector.
The ability to engage communities differently (fostering buy-in and partnerships). Lack of funds needed to build and sustain existing initiatives.
Communities have an understanding of climate change.
Knowledge skills, and learning
Well –trained staff in the disaster management unit.
There is a lot of potential in the indigenous knowledge sector that can be taped on to integrate the knowledge base.
The municipality has well-developed plans and actions in place to deal with disasters.
Communities have skills and assets to deal with disasters
Not a good understanding of priority risks specific to regions.
In some instances communities are not informed about the municipality plans in their area concerning climate related issues.
The top-ten risks could create a situation where other risks that are a top priority in certain regions are ignored.
The municipality has knowledge about climate change and its impacts on different sectors and communities.
Communities can respond during certain events to assist
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Resilience characteristics
What do we know about the current status?
What are the strengths/opportunities in the CoT?
What are the perceived gaps? What are the challenges? What are the elements of resilience?
Community asset pool still untapped in some instances.
each other. They know what to do and how to organise assistance.
Values and beliefs
Communities and the municipality have different values and beliefs.
The difference in values and beliefs can be harnessed to develop the priority disaster list for each region.
The top ten priority risks that are used as a generalisation across the municipality.
Communities have different expectations that that of the municipality. The expect housing and the provision of services such as water and electricity. These expectations are driving a different value and belief system than the one of the municipality.
Social networks
Certain communities are able to assist members in need during disaster events.
Voluntary organisation on the part of communities.
Network of first responders (volunteering and in professional capacity)
How can the municipality tap into and learn from such activities?
A helping attitude.
Engaged governance
The municipality do engage communities.
Knowledgeable people in the municipality talk to the communities.
A top-down paternalistic style of engagement.
Changing the engagement style from top-down and paternalistic to a more embedded and cooperative style.
A need to engage with one another.
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6 Projections of future climate change over Tshwane
6.1 Introduction
The African continent is thought to be highly vulnerable to future climate change, and the southern African subcontinent is no exception. It is projected that temperatures over this region will be rising rapidly during the 21st century, at almost twice the global rate of temperature increase. It is also plausible for the region to become generally drier under climate change (e.g. Engelbrecht et al., 2009; DEA, 2013a). Within this context, it is important to examine in some detail the projected climate futures of the City of Tshwane, and the specific vulnerabilities of this region to extreme weather events under climate change. An analysis of observed trends in climate and projections of future climate change over the Tshwane region has been performed for this purpose.
6.2 Summary of Findings
A collection of high-resolution projections of future climate change over southern Africa under a low mitigation (high emission) scenario has been analyzed to describe plausible climatic changes over the City of Tshwane region during the 21st century. The ensemble of downscalings project a robust trend of the Tshwane climate to drift towards a future climate regime that is significantly warmer than the present state and that is also plausible to be drier. Specific findings include:
Under low mitigation (high emissions) the Tshwane climate is plausible to be 4-7 °C warmer by the end of the century (far-future), compared to the present-day climate. Mid-future temperature increases are projected to be in the order of 1-3 °C.
Very hot days may increase from less than 40 per year in the present-day to between 100 and 180 days per year by the end of the century, with drastic increases already plausible by the mid-century (60 days or more per year).
It is plausible for the Tshwane region to become generally drier under climate change. There is evidence of potential increases in the annual number of extreme rainfall events
over the City, although these changes are not as persistent as in the case of rising temperatures or very hot day frequencies.
Changing temperature patterns alone may pause significant new challenges to the City, including increased energy demand in summer (to achieve human comfort in buildings and factories), human health (increased heat stress), decreased crop yield (the maize crop is sensitive to the occurrence of very hot days) and impacts on water security (increased evaporation) and quality. These potential impacts of future climate change on Tshwane are discussed in more detail in Chapter 7 of this report.
6.2.1 The present-day climate of Tshwane
The present-day seasonal cycle in rainfall and temperature over the Tshwane, as calculated from gridded weather station data provided by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) for the period 1961-
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1990, is presented in 5. The particular data set used, CRUTS3.1, is described by Mitchell and Jones (2005). The present-day seasonal cycles in rainfall totals, and in minimum, maximum and average temperature, are depicted in Table 4 andTable 5Error: Reference source not found.
Tshwane is located in the summer rainfall region of eastern South Africa, and has an annual average rainfall of about 670 mm. Figure 9 shows the location of Tshwane within northern South Africa. Rainfall peaks during summer (December to February - DJF), whilst the winters (July to August – JJA) are very dry (see Figure 10 and Table 4). Onset of the rainy season usually occurs in October, and cessation usually occurs in April. Summers are warm, with an average temperature of about 22 °C, whilst the winters are mild with an average temperature of about 12 °C (see Table 5). Most winter days are characterized by sunny days, clear skies and cold nights. Minimum temperatures may occasionally drop to below freezing point during winter, and frost occasionally occurs over the region. This usually happens after a cold front has penetrated deep into the southern African interior. About 80% of the summer rainfall over Tshwane occurs from tropical-temperate cloud bands, and in particular the thunderstorms located within the cloud bands (e.g. Washington and Todd, 1999). Isolated heat thunderstorms also occur frequently over Tshwane during the warmer months. These storms are frequently associated with hail, damaging winds and flash floods occurring over Tshwane (e.g. Dyson, 2009). Summer seasons with below-normal rainfall over Tshwane usually occurs in response to El Niño events, whilst large-scale flooding and summers with above-normal rainfall typically occurs during La Niña years (e.g. Landman and Beraki, 2012).
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Figure 9. Location of Tshwane in relation to the north-eastern areas of South Africa.
Figure 10. The present day annual cycle in rainfall and temperature over Tshwane (calculated from CRUTS3.1 data set).
Table 4. The present-day climate of Tshwane: Seasonal and annual totals of rainfall (mm).
Variable Winter Spring Summer Autumn Annual
Rainfall 13 192 325 141 671
These averages were calculated over the period 1961-1990, using the gridded station data of the CRUTS3.1 data set.
Table 5. The present-day climate of Tshwane: Seasonal and annual averages for minimum, maximum and mean daily temperatures (°C) over Tshwane. These averages were calculated over the period 1961-1990, using the gridded station data of the CRUTS3.1 data set.
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Variable Winter Spring Summer Autumn Annual
Minimum temperature
3.9 12.5 16.1 10.7 10.8
Maximum temperature
20.5 26.5 28.2 24.6 24.9
Average temperature
12.2 19.5 22.2 17.6 17.8
6.3 Observed trends in the climate of Tshwane
The observed trends in rainfall and temperature over South Africa, including northeastern South Africa and Tshwane, have been described in recent years by a number of comprehensive studies (e.g. Kruger and Shongwe, 2004; Kruger, 2006). No significant trend in rainfall totals has been detected over Tshwane over the period 1910-2004 (Kruger, 2006). Additional attributes of rainfall over Tshwane, such as maximum number of consecutive dry days per year and the occurrence of heavy rainfall events also exhibited no significant change over this period. However, there is a significant downward trend in the maximum number of consecutive wet days per year (Kruger, 2006).
Temperatures, however, have been increasing significantly over recent decades. Analysis of the CRUTEMP4 data set reveals an upward trend of about 1.8 C per century over Tshwane, over the period 1961-2010. A very similar value is reported by Kruger and Shongwe (2004) for an analysis performed for weather station data in the Tshwane region for the period 1960-2003.
In summary, with regard to changes detected in Tshwane climate over recent decades, there is little or no evidence of any significant changes in rainfall. However, temperatures over the region are rising rapidly, at about twice the global rate of temperature increase.
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6.4 A regional context for climate change over Tshwane: projections of future climate change over the north-eastern parts of South Africa
6.4.1 Projected changes in temperature over north-eastern South Africa
Rapid rises in the annual average near-surface temperature are projected to occur over north-eastern South Africa during the 21st century. The projected changes are shown in Figure 11 for the future time-slabs 2015-2035 (near-future), 2040-2060 (mid-future) and 2080-2100 (far-future), relative to the baseline period 1970-2005. For each time-slab, the lower-range (10 th percentile), median (50th percentile) and upper range (90th percentile) of the projected changes are shown (as calculated for the ensemble of projected changes). For the near-future, temperature increases of less than 1 °C are projected by most ensemble members, with the upper range of the projected changes more than 1° C, but less than 2° C. For the period 2040-2060, annual average temperatures are projected to rise by 2.5 to 3.5 °C over most of the region, relative to the baseline period. Drastic increases in average annual temperatures are projected for the far-future period. Increases of more than 3.5 °C are projected across the ensemble, with most ensemble members projecting increases of more than 4 °C over the western part of the domain shown. More moderate increases, of between 2.5 and 3.5 °C, are projected by most ensemble members over Mozambique. Generally, the pattern and amplitude of projected temperature increases shows close correspondence across the different ensemble members, indicating that the projected signal is robust. Drastically rising surface temperatures may have significant impacts on north-eastern South Africa (and the Tshwane region) including impacts on water quality (through associated rises in water temperatures in dams and other reservoirs), water security (through enhanced evaporation), human and animal health (due to increased heat stress during heat wave events) and crop yield (most crops grown in north-eastern South Africa are sensitive to extreme temperature events). These aspects are discussed in more detail for the Tshwane region elsewhere in this report.
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Figure 11. Projected change in the annual average temperature over NE South:
(for the time-slabs 2015-2035, 2040-2060 and 2080-2100, relative to 1970-2005. The 90th percentile (upper panel), median (middle panel) and 10th percentile (lower panel) are shown for the ensemble of downscalings of six CGCM projections, for each of the time-slabs. The downscalings were performed using the regional model CCAM. All the CGCM projections contributed to CMIP3 and AR4 of the IPCC, and are for the A2 SRES scenario.)
6.4.2 Projected changes in rainfall over north-eastern South Africa
The regional model ensemble projects a diversity of plausible 21st century rainfall futures for north-eastern South Africa. These are displayed in Figure 12, which shows the projected change in the average annual rainfall (mm) for the time-slabs 2015-2035, 2040-2060 and 2080-2100, relative to 1970-2005. The upper range (upper panel), median (middle panel) and lower range (lower panel) of the projections are shown for the ensemble of downscalings of six GCM projections, for each of the time-slabs. Most ensemble members project the western and central part of the region to become generally drier during the 21st century (see also Engelbrecht et al., 2011; Malherbe et al., 2013), in
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response to a general strengthening of the subtropical high-pressure belt over the region (Engelbrecht et al., 2009; Malherbe et al., 2013). This pattern of drying projected for large parts of the region is also related to the northward displacement of tropical lows and cyclones in the simulations (Malherbe et al., 2013). The amplitude of the projected drying increases over time, and for the 2080-2100 time-slab rainfall decreases of more than 40 mm/year are projected for large parts of the region. A minority of ensemble members project that the eastern part of the region, in Mozambique, may become wetter under enhanced greenhouse gas forcing. However, the pattern of significant drying over the western and central parts of the region is robust across the ensemble members.
Figure 12. Projected change in average rainfall (mm) over NE South Africa:
(for the time-slabs 2015-2035, 2040-2060 and 2080-2100, relative to 1970-2005. The 90th percentile (upper panel), median (middle panel) and 10th percentile (lower panel) are shown for the ensemble of downscalings of six CGCM projections, for each of the time-slabs. The downscalings were performed using the regional model CCAM. All the CGCM projections contributed to CMIP3 and AR4 of the IPCC, and are for the A2 SRES scenario).
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6.5 Projected climate futures for Tshwane
6.5.1 Projected temperature and rainfall anomalies over time
The simulated annual temperature and rainfall anomalies over Tshwane under the A2 scenario, as simulated by the CCAM ensemble for 1961-2100, are displayed in Figure 13.Error: Reference sourcenot found. Annual average temperature increases of 4 to 7 °C are projected over the region for the period 2080-2100 relative to the baseline period, under the A2 scenario, by the CCAM ensemble. These anomalies are well beyond the natural temperature variability of the region (as represented by the 1961-2005 purple and blue dots in Error: Reference source not found. That is, temperatures over the City are projected to increase drastically, reaching a regime never observed before in the recorded climate of the City. For the mid-future period (2040-2060) temperature anomalies of between 1 and 3 °C are projected under the A2 scenario, by the respective CCAM ensembles. The mid-future anomalies are already beyond the range of the present-day climatology. For the near-future period (2015-2035), annual temperature anomalies under the A2 scenario are mostly within the realm of present-day climate, although drifting out of it towards the end of the period, reaching values of up to 2 °C. Rainfall anomalies projected for the City of Tshwane region exhibit a clear pattern of drying under the A2 scenario, which strengthens over time. In the far-future (2080-2100), the anomalies are starting to drift outside the range of present-day climate variability.
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Figure 13. Projected annual temperature (°C,y-axis) and rainfall (mm, x-axis) anomalies for the period 1961-2100 over the City of Tshwane, relative to the 1961-1990 baseline climatology, for the six CCAM downscalings under the A2 scenario.
6.5.2 Very hot days
Figure 14 shows the CCAM-ensemble projected changes in the annual number of very hot days occurring over Tshwane, for the period 1961-2100. A very hot day is here defined as a day when the maximum temperature exceeds 35 °C. It can be seen that for the present-day period 1961-2010, few years exhibit more than 40 very hot days in all the simulations. The ensemble projects a robust pattern of drastic increases in the number of very hot days over the City. By mid-century (2041-2060), the threshold of 40 very hot days per year is frequently exceeded, with 60 occurrences per year common to some of the projections. Drastic temperature increases are projected towards the end of the century, with the annual number of very hot days ranging between 100 and 180 days
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across the ensemble. The oppressive impact of such a drastic change should not be underestimated. Indeed, the results imply that it is plausible for almost all days during the summer half-year to have maximum temperatures exceeding the 35 °C threshold. This would have impacts on crop yield, water security and quality, human health and energy demand in the City of Tshwane region.
6.5.3 Extreme rainfall events
It is often postulated that extreme rainfall events are to increase under the enhanced greenhouse effect – a warming atmosphere is capable of holding more moisture, whilst increasing surface temperatures may trigger atmospheric convection more frequently. However, regional changes in circulation (e.g. increased subsidence, changes in the prevailing wind direction) may function to suppress rainfall over particular regions. Here we examine the CCAM ensemble of projections to objectively estimate potential changes in the frequency of extreme rainfall events over the City of Tshwane region. Extreme precipitation events are defined as 20 mm of rain falling within 24 hours over an area of 50x50 km2. Rainfall events of this magnitude rarely occur over the South African Highveld (see Engelbrecht et al., 2013) and are frequently associated with flash floods or more widespread flood events. Unlike the case of very hot days, the ensemble of projections is not indicative of a clear or persistent trend in the frequency of occurrence of extreme rainfall events (Figure 15Figure 14). However, all projections show that it is plausible for an increase in the frequency of occurrence of extreme events to occur in the post 2010 period over the City of Tshwane region.
Figure 14: Simulated annual number of very hot days (days with maximum temperature exceeding 35 °C) for the period 1961-2100 over the City of Tshwane, for the six CCAM downscalings under the A2 scenario
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Figure 15. Simulated number of extreme precipitation days (24-hr rainfall exceeding 20 mm over an area of 50x50 km2) for the period 1961-2100 over the City of Tshwane, for the six CCAM downscalings under the A2 scenario.
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7 Impacts and vulnerabilities
7.1 Introduction
In the context of current and future climate variability, the focus in this chapter is to create a risk profile of the City of Tshwane and its regions, by prioritising social, economic and environmental issues and needs highlighted as essential for a vulnerability risk assessment. Climate risks are assessed for four key environmental factors, biodiversity, water, land (in terms of land cover) and air quality. . In terms of the socio-economic factors worsening or increasing vulnerability, demographics, human settlements, and human health were considered, with regional profiles developed from literature and data provided by CoT. This includes the profiling of vulnerable population groups and low income groups which reside in areas of environmental risk such as along flood plains and in informal settlements (UNEP, 2011)1.
7.1.1 What are the key climate vulnerabilities in CoT?
The analysis to identify the key vulnerabilities in the CoT was conducted through the analysis of environmental sectors, water, air, biodiversity and landcover and for the social sectors, human settlement, human health and wellbeing and social vulnerability. In analysis of social vulnerability included informal settlements, child headed and female headed households, education rates, unemployment, households living below the poverty line, age dependency ratio and number of people per household. It is important that the social vulnerability influences the coping capacity of the vulnerable population, for example households with highest vulnerability will be the least able to cope with any stressors including climate related stressors.
Key sectors identified include:
Human settlements: especially the informal settlements located in the flood lines, affecting a high population numbers. Densely populated residential areas for example in Centurion are further impacted by dolomite which increases vulnerability.
Water resources: the resource is already facing pressure of high demand from a growing population and economic sector and being a scarce resource, climate change, especially increases in temperature will exacerbate water availability. Extreme events such as floods will damage river and wetland ecosystems affecting water quality and access. Impacts on water are far reaching to include agriculture (food security), drinking water and sanitation services, economic and industrial development, storm water and transport infrastructure to name but a few. Other threat to water include acid mine drainage and pollution.
1 See glossary of terms for at the beginning of the report for the terms used in this section of the report.
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High energy demand: for both domestic and industrial use, as a result of increases in temperature, for cooling. Reduced water availability will affect hydro -power generation, affecting the supply and demand of energy. Floods also affect coal reserves.
Agro-ecosystems and food security: Both food availability and accessibility will be affected especially for household that rely on subsistence farming thus will be forced to purchase food. This will increase their food insecurity. In terms of commercial farming, water for irrigation will be reduced and often unusable if it is too warm due to increases in temperature. This will again affect food security. Livestock will be affected especially by increases in temperature.
Ecosystem goods and services: Loss and degradation of biodiversity both terrestrial and aquatic is a critical issue which will affect not only the environment but the people and the social economic activities that depend on it.
The key vulnerabilities identified are not exhaustive and are not put in any order. These are however ranked and prioritised in Chapter 6 of the report.
7.2 Environment
7.2.1 Biodiversity
Biodiversity is essential for ecosystem health, which in turn is key and central to human well-being. Healthy ecosystems when intertwined with other working landscapes and open spaces provide the ecological infrastructure of the country and are the basis of clean air, water, fertile soil and food (DEA, 2013a). South Africa depends on healthy ecosystems for economic and livelihood activities which include agriculture, tourism, income generation and subsistence activities (see Box 2 for more on ecosystems services).
Natural ecosystems are facing pressures from land use change, resulting in degradation and invasive alien species, exacerbated by temperature increases, rising atmospheric CO2 levels and changing rainfall patterns, possibly as a result of climate change (DEA, 2013a). Healthy and well-functioning ecosystems assist in building resilience and helping communities adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change, for example, by providing a buffer from extreme events such as floods and droughts and by reducing erosion and trapping sediments. Well-functioning ecosystems further increase natural resources for a myriad of livelihoods, providing habitats for animals and plants which consequently provide a safety net for communities during difficult times. Sustainably managed ecosystems assist in the adaptation to climate change at local level (DEA, 2013a; Driver et al, 2012). South Africa is well-versed with the functioning of its ecological structure , based in the good understanding of its biomes, which provides a solid basis for an adaptation framework.
7.2.2 Biodiversity in the City of Tshwane
Tshwane consists of two biomes, the grassland and the savannah, with mixed Bushveld, Clay Thorn Bushveld, Rocky Highveld Grass land and Moist Cool Highveld Grassveld as some of the vegetation
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types found within the area. Tshwane has 19 protected areas and five conservancies (ICLEI, 2014). The City of Tshwane geographic area includes mountain ranges and ridges, linking with its neighbours through natural elements such as Magaliesberg, Witwatersberg/ Daspoort and the Bronberg ranges that extend into North West and Mpumalanga Provinces. At least 40% of Gauteng’s threatened plants species are located in the Bronberg and the Magaliesberg mountain ranges.
As previously mentioned, two dominant biomes found in the CoT, are the grassland biome covering the southern area and the savanna biome dominating the central and northern part of CoT. The major drivers influencing the vulnerability of biomes are land use change and climate change.
7.2.3 Threatened Ecosystems in the City of Tshwane
Ecosystem threat status highlights the extent to which ecosystems are still intact, or are losing vital aspects of their structure, function and composition upon which their capacity to provide ecosystem services relys on (Driver et al., 2011). Ecosystem threat is classified as critically endangered (CR), endangered (EN), Vulnerable (VU) and less threatened (LT), with CR, EN and VU classifies as threatened ecosystems. These are premised on the proportion of individual ecosystems that are in good ecological status, relative to a series of thresholds. The ability to map and classify ecosystems into different ecosystem types is essential in the assessment of threat status and protection levels as well as to monitor trends over time (Driver at al., 2011).
Critical ecosystems in CoT are located mainly along the boundaries of the different regions and are highlighted by the deep red tones (Figure 16) with the largest CR located between Region 3 and 4, near Atteridgeville, and Region 4 and 6, south of Pretoria. Another sizable area of CR is located within Region 6 as well as in Region 7. Smaller areas or fragments of CR are found around Mamelodi (Region 4) and along the Region 1 and 3 boundaries. It is interesting to note that most of the CR, with the exception of the fragmented areas and one in the savannah, are located within the grassland biome, which has already been highlighted as under threat (Driver et al., 2011).
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Figure 16: Biomes and threatened ecosystem status (adopted from BGIS, 2014).
Ecosystems classified as critically endangered (CR) have retained little of their original extent (length and volume) in natural or near natural state as a result of modification of the natural state, and in most cases the ecosystems have lost their natural structure and functioning and may have lost some of the species (Nel and Driver, 2011). Further, these areas are susceptible to loss of the remaining natural ecosystem types, with detrimental impacts and these areas need to be prioritised for conservation (Driver et al, 2011; Nel and Driver, 2011).
There are three sizable spatial areas classified as Endangered in Tshwane, and these are located in southern areas of Region 4 (one area) and in two areas in Region 7, with one located towards the north of the region with the second towards the south. Two of these areas are located in the grassland biome, while the area in the north of region 7 straddles the grassland and the savannah biome. There areas are highlighted by orange tones (Figure 16: Biomes and threatened ecosystemstatus). As mentioned earlier, ecosystems classified as endangered are close to becoming critically endangered, and loss of natural condition or further disturbances of these areas should be avoided. Further, these areas should be targeted for conservation (Driver et al, 2011).
The vulnerable ecosystem (VU) represents the largest spatial area in Tshwane, covering most of the Regions and mainly located in the grassland biome, and covering most parts of Regions 6 and 7, as well the southern parts and fragments in the northern parts of Regions 1, 2 and 5. Other fragmented areas are found in Region 3. No VU areas were identified in Region 4. Vulnerable ecosystems are classified as still having most of their original extent (area, length and volume) in natural or near-natural state. These areas may have experienced some loss of habitat and or are deteriorated. These
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areas may have lost some of their ecosystem structure and function and continual loss of natural habitat and condition will consequently compromise their functionality (Driver et al., 2011).
7.2.4 Climate Change and Biodiversity
According to the Long Term Adaptation Scenarios (DEA, 2013a), the grassland biome is highly vulnerable to both land use and climate change, being ranked the second most vulnerable (endangered), with low protection of this biome nationally. In terms of vulnerability to climate change, the grassland biome is highlighted as a high priority for protection, restoration and research to guarantee adaptation under future climate conditions. Due to the high altitude location of the biome and its susceptibility to warming impacts, substantial change and loss of habitat is projected for the grasslands (DEA, 2013a; Driver et al., 2011). Further, the grassland biome faces threats from the encroachment of tree cover as a result of CO2 fertilisation and longer growing periods (DEA, 2013a).
The savanna biome, conversely, is projected to increase its geographic range, in some areas encroaching and replacing the grassland biome (Driver et al., 2011). This projected increase in woody cover is expected to transfer or change the structures of some areas of the savanna biome towards woodland and forests, including invasion by alien species. The loss of the grassland biome is likely to have adverse impacts on ecosystem goods and services, such as water delivery from the highland catchments and grazing as well as adverse impacts on conservation and ecosystem delivery as well as ecosystem processes such as wild fires.
7.3 Water Resources
Gauteng province is water scarce, in terms of both surface and ground water with the available resources being fully developed and utilized (ICLEI, 2014). Water resources in the province are at risk of pollution from previous unsustainable practices such mining, which is likely to have adverse impacts on the economic development of the province (ICLEI, 2014). The province further imports water from Lesotho through the Lesotho Highlands project. The CoT falls under the greater Limpopo River Catchment and shares 12 quaternary catchments with neighboring municipalities, with approximately 1487 km of water courses, 11 perennial rivers, 21 wetlands, nine non-perennial and nine perennial pans, as well as 362 dams with Roodeplaat, Rietvlei, and Bon Accord Dams being the biggest (ICLEI, 2014).
7.3.1 River Ecosystems
River ecosystems are important in the supply of fresh water, functioning as a storage facility in the transportation of water and, together with manmade storage and transfer schemes, to bring water to urban and rural areas, as well as irrigate croplands, remove waste and provide cultural and aesthetic services.
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River ecosystems in the WMA that supply CoT are under pressure from abstraction of water from the rivers, and other changes to the timing and quantity of flows, due to damming or transfer schemes between catchments. Issues such as pollution and the destruction of natural vegetation along river banks, results in irreversible damage, exacerbating the provision of ecosystems services by rivers ecosystems. Acid Mine Drainage (AMD) is another threat to the fresh water systems in CoT. Fresh water is important for the provision of the following: food resources such as fish; pollution dilution and water quality protection; nutrient cycling; biodiversity, which is of direct economic benefit through ecotourism; bird and wildlife habitat; enhanced adjacent property value; flood attenuation; sediment trapping; water storage and groundwater recharge (Nel and Driver, 2011).
7.3.2 Water Management Areas
Water resources for the City of Tshwane consist of a series of dams, rivers, wetlands and groundwater resources. The City’s water resources straddle two water management areas, The Olifants River sub catchment which covers parts of Regions 5, 6 and 7, and the Crocodile West and Marico sub catchment, which completely covers Regions 1, 2, 3, 4 and parts of Regions 5 and 6 (Figure 17). The second sub-catchment is the Apies-Pienaars, consisting of the Apies and the Pienaars river catchments, and the Moretele and Tiholwe rivers catchments. The Apies River supplies mainly the densely populated City of Tshwane, including the Pretoria Central Business District (CBD), parts of the central-eastern suburbs and most of the western Pretoria industrial and urban areas. Increased high surface water runoff is directed into the Apies River from these areas.
Figure 17. Water management areas and surface water sources (BGIS, 2014)
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The area of the CoT covered by the Olifants river catchment consists of mainly natural areas, agriculture and fragments of forestry. Economic activities in the sub catchment vary from mining, metallurgic industries, irrigation, dry land and subsistence farming to eco-tourism with the provision of water for ecological needs being key in the catchment (DWAF, 2004).
7.3.3 Wetlands
The wetlands found in the Crocodile West Marico water management area are located in a myriad biomes resulting in a remarkable rich diversity of wetlands, regarding types, biodiversity and range. Sizable peat lands and wetlands occur at the Rietvlei Nature Reserve, Colbyn Valley Wetland nature area and north of the Tswaing Meteorite Crater (ICLEI, 2014). The Working for Wetlands programme has been actively involved in the rehabilitation of degraded wetlands in Gauteng, including in the Rietvlei in Tshwane with the objective of restoring ecosystems functions and sustainable use (See Box 1).
Wetlands comprise a crucial constituent of the natural system for the collecting, managing and supplying of water to the environment for various uses (Driver et al., 2011). Wetlands accomplish important ecological purposes such as water purification, flood attenuation, drought alleviation, stream flow regulation, erosion control, the recharge of aquifers and water storage (Driver et al., 2011). In addition, wetlands provide goods and services that have direct socio-economic and cultural value, for example food, water and resources for agriculture and grazing. Wetlands further contribute significantly to tourism and environmental education and, most importantly, to the maintenance of a rich biodiversity, providing habitat to a large variety of animal and plant life (Driver et al., 2011).
The National Biodiversity Assessment study (Driver et al., 2011), estimates that at least one third of the wetlands in South Africa have been impacted by human activity. This excludes the wetlands that have been irreversibly lost and can no longer be mapped. Gauteng is one of the worst affected provinces in terms of modified wetlands. This is particularly concerning, given the importance of
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BOX 1 - WETLANDS
Conservation and Sustainable Use of Wetlands in City of Tshwane for Economic and Societal Benefits
- Achieve no net loss of wetland or wetland functioning
- Enhance and rehabilitate wetlands in areas of continuing loss or degradation or functions, in areas of occurrence and/or where critical levels have been reached
- Recognition of wetland functions in resource planning, management and economic decision-making regarding all programmes, policies and activities
- Secure wetlands of significance within City of Tshwane
- Promote the sustainable utilisation of wetlands in a manner that enhances prospects for their sustained and productive use by future generations.
- Recognize the role that the City of Tshwane plays in influencing wetlands that occur downstream and outside the City limits.
ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change, especially in the face of possible increases in floods and droughts in Gauteng (Driver et al., 2011).
7.3.4 Ground Water
Groundwater constitutes an essential resource in the Crocodile West and the Olifants sub-catchments, especially for agriculture (irrigation) and in areas north-west of the catchment (DWAF, 2004) including areas in the City of Tshwane and rural areas. Further potential repositories of ground water include large quantities of water for cooling of power generation, and smaller transfers made to neighbouring water management areas (DWAF, 2004). While the population projections for the rural areas highlight limited increases, population and economic growth are expected in the mining towns.
The Internal Perspective Study (IPS) on the Crocodile West Marico WMA (DWAF, 2004) highlights the importance of ground water utilisation as part of fresh water resources, and as a potential resource to supplement water resources, especially for remote settlements, towns and villages far from surface water sources, including many small communities, and subsistence farming activities (DWAF, 2004).
Groundwater sources are prone to pollution from human activities. These activities include the leaching of fertilisers, the influx of nitrates, primarily a consequence of human habitation and sanitation, possibly from the pit latrines and mining activities which are often responsible for pollution of underlying aquifers. Ground water quality in Tshwane (Figure 18) is assessed according to the measure of total dissolved solids2. Sources for TDS in drinking water may be natural, sewage, urban runoff, or industrial waste water and chemicals used for water treatment including in some cases plumbing (WRC, 2014; SARVA, 2014).
The measures of mean TDS in Tshwane vary from 0-133 mg/L in Regions 5 and 7, 134 to 350 mg/L in Regions 2, 3, 4, 6 and 7, including urban areas such Pretoria, Centurion and other areas such as Cullinan, Mamelodi and Atteridgeville. Areas with measures of 351-591 mg/L are located mainly in the north of City of Tshwane, in Regions 1 and 2 and the most northern part of Region 5. Areas with a TDS measure ranging from 591-900 mg/L are located in the central part of the study area, in Region 1, and northern part of Region 7. While these figures indicate fairly good ground water quality in the City of Tshwane, it is important to note that natural ground water is never pure; it always contains limited quantities of dissolved gases and solids (SARVA, 2014) which may range from 100 mg/L or less for fresh water to 100 000 mg/L.
2 Dissolved solids comprise any minerals such as salts, metals, cations or anions dissolved in the water, while total dissolved solids (TDS) consists of inorganic salts and cations such as calcium, magnesium, potassium and sodium, while the anions are bicarbonates, chlorides and sulphates (SARVA, 2014; WRC, 2014).
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.
Figure 18: Quality of Ground water
7.3.5 Climate change and water resources
The demand for water is anticipated to increase as a result of increases in economic development, population growth, higher standards of living and increase in urban growth in areas such as CoT (DEA, 2013a). Climate change and variability are expected to negatively impact existing water challenges while creating new challenges, through increased rainfall variability, including more frequent extreme weather events (droughts and floods), varying rainfall seasonality and general warming which will result in increased surface water losses into the atmosphere (DEA, 2013a). This will have adverse effects on economic development and livelihood strategies, while disrupting the development of infrastructure, catchment management as well as future water demand (DEA, 2013a). South Africa is in the process of developing a climate change strategy for the water sector, with the assumptions that the country’s water resources are highly developed, highly stressed and are in some areas degraded; this is exacerbated by pollution and high water demand (DEA, 2013a).
The projections for City of Tshwane (Chapter 5) predict large temperature increases for the near future (2015 – 2035) with temperature increases expected to reach values of about 2 °C towards the end of the period and the mid future (2040-2060) with increases between 1 and 3 °C The predictions also highlight drastic increases in the number of hot days by the mid-century (2041- 2060). These projected temperature increases are likely to have detrimental impacts on water availability and quality including surface runoff, which has presently been analysed at national scale.
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Water quality is expected to be affected by increases in temperature, although studies on this are limited. These impacts are based on the knowledge of water reaction to climatic drivers such as temperature, evaporation, rainfall and hydrology. Increased air temperatures are likely to have consequent increases in water temperature (DEA, 2013a). Warmer water temperatures will affect, amongst others, the quality of water for irrigation, dissolved oxygen content, chemical and biological reactions in water with wider impacts on health, due to favourable condition for incubation and transmission of water-borne diseases (DEA, 2013a). Further, heat wave impacts on water as well less oxygen content could lead to mortality of many fish species, including those that are sensitive to temperature. Enhanced evaporation from open water sources such as dams, wetlands, soil and plants, which occurs over and above the normal evaporation under current climate is expected to increase. Enhanced evaporation will results in the concentration of salts and other elements on water bodies especially when the levels are low, and in the soil when soil moisture is reduced due to evaporation in the soil and evapotranspiration from plants (DEA, 2013a).
Extreme weather events influence changes in rainfall intensity affecting water quality, which in turn impacts on catchment processes by increasing soil erosion and other pollutants that gather on the surface of the catchment. Increased rainfall intensity will possibly lead to surcharging sewers once sewerage pipes get blocked with washed-off debris or discharge from the partially treated waste water from overloaded wastewater treatment works (DEA, 2013a). This is likely to have detrimental human health impacts as well as affecting aquatic ecosystems. Flash floods are of concern in urban areas with impacts including scoring and erosion of urban streams due to the heavy sediment load and movement of organic matter deposited in the stream channels (DEA, 2013a). Droughts will likely result in less water available for waste water discharges and irrigation return flows causing downstream impacts for users and aquatic ecosystems (DEA, 2013a). As mentioned earlier, droughts are expected to increase given the projected clear drier patterns of drying for the rainfall anomalies on the City of Tshwane.
Given that rainfall is the main source of ground water, reduction in rainfall due to climate change and variability may impact the recharge of ground water and ground water levels which contribute to the base flow of rivers (DWAF, 2010; SARVA, 2014). Other climate change-related factors affecting recharging of ground water include rainfall volumes, intensity and duration; as well higher temperatures. Furthermore, concentrated storms may damage the small alluvial aquifers (DWAF, 2010). The decline in recharge could result in decreased ground water quality as there will be less dilution, whereas flooding may lead to the mobilization of pollutants (SARVA, 2014).
Climate change is likely to affect the provision of water services in areas of the City of Tshwane, as shown above, especially given the increase in the demand for water in urban areas for domestic and industrial uses (DEA, 2013a). Reduced water provision may also adversely affect human health, particularly for populations with poor water infrastructure and already high burdens of infectious disease. The quality and availability of water to these populations is likely to be even more compromised after heavy rainfall and flood events, resulting in increased risk of diarrhoeal diseases (DEA, 2013a).
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In terms of the socio-economic impacts of climate change on water, a myriad of economic sectors will be affected. These include including human health, agriculture, power generation, forestry and fisheries. In particular, the increase in temperatures will adversely impact the quantities required for cooling procedures in industrial and domestic applications. Water availability will impact food security, especially for commercial and small-scale as well as subsistence agriculture (DEA, 2013a).
7.4 Land cover
Land cover refers to physical land types. Land cover data records the spatial coverage of land by forests, wetlands, impervious surfaces and agriculture among other land and water types. Water types would refer to wetlands and open water bodies. Land use, on the other hand, documents how the landscape is being used, or developed to meet human needs. While land cover is relatively easy to measure, land use is not (NOAA, 2014).
Mapping of land cover provides information to assist in the monitoring of changes over time, to evaluate past and current management decisions and their potential impacts, including assistance in understanding human and natural phenomena impacts on the environment (NOAA, 2014). Some of the factors that can be measured by means of land cover mapping include:
urban growth; water quality; predicted and assessed impacts of floods and storm surges,; tracking of wetland losses; environmental and socio-economic impacts such as population growth (NOAA, 2014).
Changes in land cover and in land use often highlight major impacts of biodiversity (as mentioned earlier). In particular it may show loss of natural habitat due to urban growth and increased agriculture. Land use and land cover aspect are therefore useful for planning and monitoring in applications such as climate change (BGIS, 2014).
7.4.1 Land cover in the City of Tshwane
Land cover in City of Tshwane is mapped from the National Landcover Project (BGIS, 2014). The national land cover map was updated in 2009 (SANBI, 2009). A total of seven land cover classes have been identified in City of Tshwane, comprising cultivation, degraded, mining, natural, plantations, built-up areas and water bodies. The built-up areas which are represented in yellow on the map (Figure 19) include the densely populated urban areas such as Pretoria, Centurion, Wonderboom and Mamelodi and settlements such as Hammanskraal in the north. The settlements mainly occupy the western areas of the City of Tshwane, covering Regions 1, 2, 3 and 4. These regions also include mining, cultivation, plantation and degraded land types. The eastern part of the City of Tshwane comprises mainly cultivation and natural areas, with fragments of plantations, mines and built up areas, covering Regions 5, 6 and 7. Built-up and cultivation areas account for the largest areas of land cover in City of Tshwane (GDARD, 2011).
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Figure 19. Land cover in the CoT (Source BGIS, 2014)
7.4.2 Agriculture and Livelihoods
Gauteng is classified as a having high potential for agriculture, with high-to-moderately-high arable land. Some of the high potential land is located in Region 6 and 7 of the CoT. There are opportunities to develop this sector further, especially expanding the dry farming land, crop cultivation such as maize and sunflowers. This includes the extensive chicken farming operations which are scattered across the area, as well as cattle farming for beef and milk (GDARD, 2012a). The City of Tshwane acknowledges the importance of food security as well as the contribution of agriculture in the economic development of CoT, including resilient ecosystems and sustainable livelihoods (COT, 2013c), although the potential of the sector has not been fully explored. Based on the Framework for a Green Economy (COT, 2013c), there is potential for agriculture in the urban and peri-urban areas of City of Tshwane.
According to the CoT’s Medium-Term (2012-2022) goal for agriculture, the CoT intends to fully utilise its potential for sustainable agriculture, in terms of land, human and financial resources available for agriculture. In the long term (i.e. 2023 – 2055), the City of Tshwane plans to launch sustainable agricultural villages in all the regions, to make appropriate management of land, water, and the environment. The CoT further intends to establish commodity cooperatives for small holder farmers and to provide support for the farmers through the development of value chains for economic growth (COT, 2014).
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7.5 Air Quality
Air Quality in Gauteng is driven by rapid urbanisation and industrial development, power generation, transport sector and domestic fuel burning (GDARD, 2012). The increase in urban growth and economic development consequently lead to a deterioration of air quality, which in turn affects human health, the quality of life and the environment. Due to poor urban planning, residential (and especially densely populated areas) are located near industrial areas, resulting in potential health risks for the populations in these areas (GDARD, 2012).
Climate change comprises an emerging environmental challenge which is likely to have detrimental impacts on air quality. Air quality is complicated by winds that transport pollutants long distances from their source, increasing and extending the range of air pollution and increasing the concentration of air quality concerns. Trans-boundary air pollution is an essential consideration, given that air pollution does not follow political boundaries (GDARD, 2012).
Air quality ratings are one way of measuring air quality in local municipalities, and these ratings are used to provide national government departments such as DEA with guidelines as to how to suppport municipalities in managing air quality. Municipalities that have poor ratings often include industrial and informal urban areas (DEA, 2013; GDARD, 2012).
7.5.1 Air Quality in the City of Tshwane
In compliance with the Air Quality Act, the City of Tshwane has developed an Air Quality Management Plan to ensure cost effective and equitable reductions of emissions and health risk, the improvement of air quality and the achievement and sustaining of acceptable air quality (CoT, 2008). This should consequently minimise human health vulnerability, and support the reduction of greenhouse gases in support of the CoT’s climate change protection programme (CoT, 2008). CoT currently has seven permanent stations and four mobile stations recording air quality data, and all stations are fully functional in terms of the data reported to the South African Air Quality Information System (SAAQIS).
In terms of air quality ratings, only two ratings are found, with poor air quality for Regions 1, 3, 4 and parts of 2 (Figure 20). These areas constitute the most urbanised area of the City of Tshwane, with all the major residential areas located in these regions. The western part of the CoT is rated as acceptable - in Regions 5, 6 and 7, with half of the western part of region 2, which is regarded as natural and cultivation.
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Figure 20. Air quality rating for the CoT (SARVA, 2014)
The air quality monitoring stations mentioned above are used for monitoring ambient air quality and wind direction, and are located in four of the five administrative regions, namely Booysens (Central-West), Pretoria West (Central-West), Rosslyn (North-West), Mamelodi (East), and Olievenhoutbosch (South) (Wright et al., 2011). The monitoring stations are placed in areas where they monitor ambient levels of priority pollutants, comprising particulate matter (PM), sulphur dioxide (SO2), ozone (O3), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) from established and non-established sites across the City (Wright et al., 2011). SO 2 and PM10 affect human health, especially the respiratory system, while some such as benzene are carcinogenic.
Air pollutants and key affected areas in the City of Tshwane is summarised in Table 6 below (CoT, 2008, p6):
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Table 6: Air Pollutants over CoT
Pollutant
Key affected areas in the CoT Main health effects
PM10 Elevated concentrations over much of Tshwane Respiratory and cardiovascular effects
NO2 Elevated concentrations expected close to busy roadways (i.e. N1, N4, N14,R80); also Pretoria West and Moot area
Respiratory effects
O3 No data Respiratory effects
SO2 Elevated concentrations over much of Tshwane (especially Pretoria West, Moot)
Acute (short-term) Respiratory effects
VOC affected zones to be established through monitoring and modelling
Upper respiratory irritation; some may have chronic effects such as cancer (e.g. benzene)
7.5.2 Air Quality and Climate change
The linkages between climate change and air pollution have not been extensively studied, but it is anticipated that climate change may influence respiratory health impacts through altering of the concentration of pollutants in ambient air by influencing weather and anthropogenic emissions (DEA, 2013b). Meteorological factors such as temperature, precipitation, clouds, atmospheric water vapour, wind speed and wind direction all influence atmospheric processes. Ozone and particulate matter are two pollutants requiring increased focus as they are related to climate change. Climate change may also influence the levels of pollution, for example high temperatures and humidity could result in more pollutants in the atmosphere while high speed, clouds and precipitation could reduce air pollutants (DEA, 2013b).
7.6 Extreme Events
The change and warming of global climate is being attributed to increase in the increased frequency and intensity of some extreme events in recent decades, such as increases in extreme heat, intense precipitation, and drought. Some of these changes include heat waves becoming longer and hotter, with heavy rains and flooding being more frequent, and the changes between extremes and drought, are more intense and more widespread (Climate Communication, 2014).
Climate extremes, exposure, and vulnerability are influenced by a wide range of factors. These factors include anthropogenic climate change, natural climate variability and socioeconomic development. Understanding the multi-faceted nature of both exposure and vulnerability is a prerequisite for determining how weather and climate events contribute to the occurrence of
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disasters, and for designing and implementing effective adaptation and disaster risk management strategies.
The character and severity of impacts are reliant not only on the events but are also influences by exposure and vulnerability of those exposed and these impacts are regarded as disasters when they result in widespread damage and severe changes in the normal functioning of communities or societies (IPCC, 2012).
7.6.1 Extreme Weather Events
A present day increase in global mean temperature has resulted in hotter days, heavier rainfall and flooding and stronger hurricanes and more severe droughts. There are three different types of extreme weather events that affect the City of Tshwane. These are heat waves, flooding and hail storms (CoT Sustainability Office, 2013).
All these are expected to increase with the changes in temperature and rainfall, according to the climate change projections (see Chapter 3), the most common being floods.
7.6.1.1 Floods
Flooding has in the past affected all the regions in CoT and is an annual occurrence especially in the low-lying areas. The worst affected areas are Region 1 and, to an extent, Region 3, which both lay within the 50 year flood line. The vulnerability is exacerbated by the informal settlements located within the flood line (see Figure 21). These same areas also have high population densities, which is an indication that these impacts affect a sizable population in CoT. For example, Shoshanguve, a township located in Region 1 battles with flooding every year due the low cost housing being built on the floodline of the Soutspanspruit River (Mail and Guardian, 2014).
Figure 21: Informal settlements located on the flood line Source (Built Environment, 2014)
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Flood line data analysis for the settlements and sectors further indicate that important infrastructure such as schools, clinics, roads and bridges will also be affected, for example the Mabopane, a low-water bridge which was washed away by flood water in, north of Pretoria in 2014 (see Figure 22) (The Citizen, 2014).
Figure 22: Mabopane road and bridge washed away during heavy flooding in Northern Pretoria (Source: The Citizen, 2014)
Regions and areas most affected by flooding include:
Region 1 – Soshanguve, Hammanskraal, Ga-rankua and Mabopane,
Region 2 - Annlin and Sinoville,
Region 3 - Atteridgeville,
Region 4 - Centurion,
Region 6 - Mamelodi and Moretele
Other areas include Daspoort, Wonderboom and Mahube valley.
Figure 23 below is an example of properties and informal areas in flood line in Region 1 Soshanguve. Soshanguve, Mabopane, Hammanskraal, also in the central and eastern areas at Daspoort, Wonderboom and Mahube valley and to the South in Centurion are prone to flooding.
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Figure 23: Informal housing in 50-year flood lines in Region 1 (Soshanguve) (CSIR Built Environment, 2014).
The City of Tshwane experiences annual flooding as a result of a combination of factors that including ageing infrastructure, storm water drainage system that is unable to handle the large volumes of water and to withhold demands posed by the increasing population and development, geographical positioning of human settlements mainly as a result of the skewed apartheid spatial planning which saw the poor and vulnerable communities being located in areas prone to flooding and other natural disasters (CoT Sustainability Office, 2013).
7.6.1.2 Droughts
Droughts have been known to affect CoT and its impacts have been detrimental especially for the farming sector. Regions that have reportedly previously been affected by drought:
Region 1 - Soshanguve, Winterveld (wards 9,12,19,24)
Region 3 – Atteridgeville (wards 51, 62, 68,71,72)
Region 6 - Moretele Park.
7.6.1.3 Heat Waves
Heat waves are characterised by prolonged periods of excessive heat, for more than five consecutive days (WMO, 2013). While heat waves may not be detrimental to the economy, compared to other types of severe weather extremes, they are extremely dangerous to humans, especially for the dependent population3 which includes the elderly, children and animals. The dependency ratio in
3 The dependent population is regarded as children below the age of 15 and the elderly above the age of 64 years and is either in school or on pension.
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CoT is 1:4. IDP, 2011). The City has been proactive in publishing heat wave warnings (CoT, 2014b). Rather than referring to physical locations, the focus is here on susceptible populations such as:
- children;
- adults exercising outdoors;
- people with respiratory diseases;
- elderly people and people with disabilities; and
- people with diseases like epilepsy (CoT, 2014b)
Similar to the impacts of droughts, plants can also be severely affected by heat waves, which are often accompanied by dry conditions. These heat waves can cause plants to lose their moisture and die. Heat waves are often more severe when combined with high humidity. The City of Tshwane experiences heat waves during summer months, normally alternating with periods of heavy rainfall while there is a lot of moisture in the atmosphere (CoT-SACN, 2013).
7.6.1.4 Hail Storms
The City of Tshwane, due to its geographic location at an altitude of 1 740 m, and it climate is susceptible to hail storms, which are a common occurrence in continental interiors and mid-latitudes. The Magaliesberg mountain range which runs across the northern- side of the city presents ideal conditions for the formation of cumulous clouds which produce thunderstorms that are at times accompanied by hail (CoT-SACN,, 2013).
Hailstones have been known to result in severe damage, particularly to automobiles, aircrafts, skylights, glass-roofed structures, livestock and crops. Although it has seldom been reported that massive hailstones were the cause of concussions or fatal head traumas, hailstorms have been responsible for costly and even deadly events throughout history (Wikipedia, 2014). Hailstorms are not new to City of Tshwane. Table 7 describes recorded historical events.
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Table 7. Incidents of hailstorms in the CoT (CoT-SACN, 2013).
Most Severe & Costly Hailstorms in South Arica
Date Location Incident
17 November 1949
Pretoria, South Africa
Hailstorm struck Pretoria West- hailstones of circumference 23 cm (diameter 7 cm) damaged windows or roofs on all buildings in the area, and broke 12000 large windows at the Iscor (now Mittal Steel South Africa) plant in the area, and damaged hundreds of cars at the plant
1 November 1985
Pretoria, South Africa
Major hailstorm striking central Pretoria and surrounding areas. Damage estimated at R400m.
23 November 2013
Pretoria, South Africa
A heavy hail storm caused extensive damage within the CoT, largely striking the poorest areas of the city and numerous power sources. The storm also dropped hail stones that were of an approximate size of a person’s clinched hand. South Africa’s Highveld is renowned for its late afternoon thunder storms during summer; this hail storm was particularly intense, affecting over 44,800 households in regions 1 and 6.
7.7 Social Vulnerability
Numerous social and economic factors play key roles in the vulnerability as well as the coping capacity and adaption of the different population groups to climate change. Factors such as demographics, economic status, education and employment status as well as types of residences or dwelling all contribute to this profile. In particular, the types of housing may either increase or decrease vulnerability, with informal settlements as a case in point. The section below explores settlement vulnerability in CoT, also in terms of its link with population distribution.
7.7.1 Human settlements
There are 150 informal settlements in the CoT. Many informal settlements lack the basic services such as piped water and sanitation (many households share ablution facilities), electricity and health facilities. The construction material of these dwellings also does not protect the resident population from elements of extreme weather. These settlements may thus be regarded as areas of high risk and vulnerability to extreme weather events such as floods, hail and heat waves.
From Figure 24, which shows the distribution of informal settlements in CoT, it is evident that these are concentrated on the north-western side of the CoT including areas such as Ga-Rankuwa and Soshanguve (Region 1), Atteridgeville (Region 3) and Mamelodi (Region 6). This spatial pattern correlates with the map (Figure 21) which shows high population densities in the same areas.
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Figure 24: Location of informal housing, backyards and traditional houses
Figure 25. Population density in the CoT.
Figure 24 and Figure 25provide an overview of the population and residential building distribution in the CoT. Both figures clearly highlight the high concentrations of people and residences in the following areas:
Region 1 – Ga-Rankuwa, Mabopane, Soshanguve
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Region 3 – Atteridgeville (ward 3,51,62,68,71,72; pockets of high density residences and people: CBD (ward 60), Lotus Gardens
Region 4 – Olievenhoutsbosch (ward 77), Mooiplaats (ward 61)
Region 5 –high density pockets: Refilwe (ward 5)
Region 6 – Mamelodi
Region 7 – with high density pockets: Zithobeni (ward 102), Ekangala (wards 103,104)
The distribution of high density residences in the east of Pretoria, Centurion and Irene are attributed to higher density cluster houses (such as complexes, townhouses or new estate developments). The areas of Mamelodi, Atteridgeville, Ga-Rankuwa, Mooiplaas, Mabopane, Soshanguwe, Olievenhoutbosh, Lotus Gardens, Refilwe, Ekangala and Zithobeni also host the majority of the informal housing (informal dwellings and backyard housing) found in the CoT as depicted in Figure26.
Figure 26. Informal settlements and high density clusters located on dolomite.
Dolomitic rock is found in Regions 3, 4 and 6. More than 300 0004 people reside on dolomitic ground (Census, 2011 & CSIR, 2014) within Tshwane (see Figure 26Figure 26. Informal settlements and high
4 Calculations done based on the intersections of the census data and the dolomite areas
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density clusters located on dolomite.There are significant clusters of high density residential areas (more than 20 housing units per hectare) prevalent in Atteridegville, Saulsville, Mooiplaas and the Sub-places of Highveld, Die Hoewes, Laudium and Pierre van Ryneveld. However the socio-economic status of these various communities differ quite vastly with Mooiplaats, Atteridgeville and Saulsville hosting the majority of the 32300 5informal houses (CSIR, 2014) that are located on dolomitic rock.
7.7.2 Social Vulnerability
A composite social vulnerability index was created, taking nine factors into account. The nine factors that have been mapped for this purpose have been included in an Atlas report6 and these include;
1) the percentage of informal households,
2) the percentage of female headed households,
3) the percentage child headed households,
4) the percentage of adults (older than 25 years) with no education,
5) unemployment rate,
6) the percentage of households with more than four people per room,
7) percentage people living below the poverty line,
8) the age dependency ratio and
9) population density per StatsSA sub-place
Dark green depicts areas that have relatively no vulnerability while light green depicts areas of very low social vulnerability. Sub-places in yellow displays areas where there is a presence of socially vulnerable communities, orange indicate areas of high social vulnerability and dark red shows areas of extremely high social vulnerability. Areas in white were excluded due to the low population densities found in these areas as depicted in Figure 27.
5 Informal housing includes informal dwellings, traditional houses and informal backyard structures.6 This is a separate document of maps prepared as part of this project
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Figure 27. Social vulnerability index.
7.7.3 Human health
The impacts of climate change on human health resulting from expected increases in the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme weather events are likely to have a major effect on public health (DEA, 2013). Human exposure to climate change may be direct and/or indirect, and will be determined by the character, magnitude and rate of climate variability (WHO, 2003 in DEA, 2013).
Direct climate change exposures include atypical temperature and precipitation, storms, and natural disasters (Samet, 2009; WHO, 2009a in LTAS, 2013). Indirect exposures may include increased air pollution, pollen production, constraints in the agriculture sector leading to food shortages and malnutrition, an optimised environment for the production and distribution of disease vectors, and ecosystem changes leading to loss of ecosystem goods and services (Samet, 2009; WHO, 2009; Abson et al., 2012 in DEA, 2013). Climate change may thus also affect social and environmental determinants of health such as clean air, safe drinking water, and sufficient food and secure shelter (WHO, 2013). Given these wide range of exposures, it is important that both direct and indirect climate exposures are addressed when dealing with vulnerability to climate change (DEA, 2013, p 24).
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7.7.3.1 Extreme heat
Extreme high air temperatures as predicted will contribute directly to deaths from cardiovascular and respiratory disease, affecting elderly people in particular (WHO, 2013). High temperatures also result in increased levels of pollutants in the air such as ozone that exacerbate cardiovascular and respiratory disease (WHO, 2013). Pollen and other aeroallergen levels are also elevated in extreme heat, which can trigger asthma (WHO, 2013). Local studies on heat stress are however limited. There are projections from the present to 2100 on the potential impact of climate change on increasing the number of “hot days”. The study indicates that heat-related impacts (heat stress symptoms) are likely to increase in the future, and that these impacts are likely to be exacerbated by socio-economic vulnerability of the population. However, the relevance of this temperature-health impact relationship and the vulnerability factors applicable to the South African population are not well documented.
7.7.3.2 Droughts
Rainfall patterns are likely to be increasingly variable, thus affecting the supply of clean, fresh water. This in turn can compromise hygiene and increase the risk of diarrhoeal disease (WHO, 2013). In extreme cases, water scarcity results in drought and famine. It has been predicted that, by the 2090s, climate change is likely to widen the area affected by drought, double the frequency of extreme droughts and increase their average duration six-fold (Arnell, 2004 in WHO, 2013).
7.7.3.3 Floods
Floods have also been increasing in frequency and intensity, contributing to contaminated freshwater supplies, a heightened risk of water-borne diseases and breeding grounds for disease-carrying insects such as mosquitoes. Physical hazards from floods include drowning and physical injuries, damage to homes and disruption in the supply of medical and health services (WHO, 2013). The combination of increased temperatures and variable precipitation contribute to a decrease in the production of staple foods which will increase the prevalence of malnutrition and under-nutrition (WHO, 2013).
7.7.3.4 Climate change and vector-borne diseases
According to the LTAS Human health report (DEA, 2013b), little is known about disease vectors in South Africa. Vectors of concern include mosquitoes (malaria, dengue fever and yellow fever) and ticks (Lyme disease). According to the World Bank, the risk from these diseases is expected to rise because of climate change due to the increased extent of areas with conditions conducive to vectors and pathogens (World Bank, 2013 in UNEP, 2014; WHO, 2014). There was however, a significant decrease in the cases and deaths of malaria recorded in South Africa between 2000 and 2011 (DOH, 2012 in DEA, 2013b).Tshwane has had very low or no malaria cases.
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Changes in temperature and precipitation directly affect vector borne diseases (VBD) and zoonotic diseases (ZD) through pathogen-host interaction (e.g. VBDs are transmitted by the bites of infected mosquitoes and other insects (vectors), and indirectly through ecosystem changes and species composition. Where mosquitoes are the vectors, temperature plays an important role. The optimum temperature for transmission is an annual average of 22 °C (DEA, 2013b, p25), with the parasite not developing at temperatures below 16 °C and the mosquitoes not surviving temperatures above 40°C). There is an association between availability of water (for breeding) and rainfall and an increase in mosquito population, thus more droughts will have the opposite effect (DEA, 2013b, 2013). However, heavy rainfall may wash breeding sites away, while a little pool of stagnant water after normal rainfall could become a breeding site, thus the association is not linear (Thomson et al., 2005 in DEA, 2013b). The life cycle of pathogens inside vectors is shortened under warmer conditions. (Table 8 from Friel et al., 2011), indicates the direct and indirect pathways from climate change to non-communicable diseases (NCDs).
Table 8. The direct and indirect impacts of climate change on NCDs (from Friel et al., 2011)
Climate change impacts
Pathway for climate change to NCDs
NCD outcome Direction of health risk
Direct
More frequent and increased intensity of heat extremes
Heat stress Cardio-vascular diseases (CVD)
Increased risk
Increased temperatures and less rain
Higher ground-level O3 and other air pollutants
Increases in airborne pollens and spores
CVD;
Respiratory disease
Increased risk
Changes in stratospheric O3, precipitation and cloud cover
Decreased exposure to solar UVR
Autoimmune diseases
Skin cancer
Reduced risk
High winter temperatures CVD;
Respiratory disease
Reduced risk
Extreme weather events (fires, floods, storms)
Structural damage Injuries Increased risk
Indirect
Drought, flooding Impaired agriculture, reduced flood yields, nutrition insecurity
Poor general health Increased risk
Extreme weather events (fires, floods, storms)
Trauma Mental health (post-traumatic stress disorder)
Increased risk
Extreme weather events (fires, floods, storms)
Impaired livelihoods, impoverishment
Mental health (anxiety/depression)
Increased risk
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7.7.3.5 Vulnerable populations in the context of climate change
While all populations will be affected by climate change, some are more vulnerable than others , such as the elderly and children (due to their physiological development), people with pre-existing medical conditions and those considered ‘special needs populations’ such as the physically or mentally challenged (WHO, 2013). Vulnerable population groups have decreased ability to cope with climate change and the socio-economic status of communities is as important as their susceptibility/sensitivity in terms of their coping capacity (WHO, 2013).
Health impacts associated with extreme events for vulnerable populations in the City of Tshwane
The vulnerability of the seven regions to three climate change aspects was assessed. These aspects were: a gradual change in climate (increase in temperature, decrease in rainfall), extreme precipitation (such as flash floods) and extreme heat events (heat waves)
Factors used in the vulnerability assessment were selected for their potential contribution to human health and well-being. Regions were then ranked as high, medium or low and summarised in Figure28. A more detailed description of the process is included in Annexure 4.
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Climate events
considered
Ranks for two scenarios
Before considering population size of region
After considering population size of region
High Medium Low High Medium Low
Gradual climate change
Region 1Region 2
Region 5Region 6Region 7
Region 3 Region 4
Region 1Region 3
Region 6
Region 2
Region 4Region 5Region 7
Extreme precipita-tion
Region 1Region 2
Region 7
Region 5
Region 3Region 4
Region 6
Region 1Region 2Region 3
Region 6
Region 4Region 5
Region 7
Extreme Temperature
Region 1Region 2
Region 7
Region 3Region 4Region 5Region 6
Region 1
Region 3
Region 6
Region 2
Region 4Region 5
Region 7
Figure 28: Ranking of regional vulnerability to climate change before and after population size adjustment.
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8 Risk assessment and prioritisation
There are several climate change related risks that the CoT is faced with due to changes in rainfall, temperature and extreme weather events. A risk identification and prioritisation process was undertaken to identify the potential primary (or initial) impacts that are relevant to the CoT. This was followed by an evaluation of the potential health, environmental, social and economic consequences arising from the initial impacts. Risks were identified by considering the input from the stakeholder engagement process, as well as relevant literature evaluated for the project. Below is a summary of the findings of this process and of this chapter.
8.1 Findings: Risk Assessment and prioritisation
It was necessary to consolidate the risk factors identified in the screening process below (see chapter 7.2) to allow for adaptation actions to be identified. Eight priority risk factors emerged out of that process and these are;
Risk factor 1: Loss of ecosystem goods and services
Risk factor2: Increased energy demand
Risk factor 3: Increase in diseases affecting human and animal health
Risk factor 4: Damage to infrastructure (storm water systems, roads, bridges)
Risk factor 5: Water insecurity
Risk factor 6: Flooding and damage to human settlements and private property
Risk factor 7: Increase in sinkholes
Risk factor 8: Decreased productivity of agro ecosystems affecting food security
The risk factors above highlight the vulnerability of sectors to the different weather and climate variables and at times a single sector maybe vulnerable to all three variables i.e. temperature, rainfall and extreme weather events. Chapter 4 of this report discusses the vulnerability of these sectors in detail. Biodiversity, infrastructure, water, human settlements, energy and human health are the key vulnerable sectors in Tshwane which adaptation should focus on and have been put on Action A rated list (see Section 7.2 for description). Sink holes are a non- climatic risk factor but it is exacerbated by a climatic factor i.e. extreme rainfall events and floods especially in areas such as Region 4 (See map 4.11). Sinkholes emerged in the Garstfontein area as a result of excessive rainfall in November-December 2013. It should be noted that risk factors on level B and C rated list should not be ignored as they also relate to the level A Action rated risks. The following section is the adaptation plan for level A rated priority risk factors.
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8.2 Prioritisation of key risks
After identifying risks the next step then is to prioritise these risks depending on the magnitude and likelihood of their negative impacts on the city and this information will be used to inform adaptation actions for the city in the next chapter. Likelihood has been defined as probabilistic estimate of the occurrence of a single event or of an outcome, for example, a climate parameter, observed trend, or projected change lying in a given range (IPCC, 2012). Magnitude refers to the scale of impact should a disaster occur. A 3x3 matrix of Likelihood vs Magnitude has been used to rank these risks on a scale of 1-low, 2- medium and 3-high (Figure 29). The matrix is used here as an initial screening activity to identify risks which require more detailed analysis and to which authorities could pay attention to in disaster risk reduction and management (CoJ, 2009). Letters A,B,C and D highlight the different action levels.
Figure 29. Likelihood and magnitude matrix
The action level A in Figure 29 above represents the risk factors whose impact on the city are projected to be high thus authorities should prioritise for immediate action. Level B represents risk factors that should be adopted with resources and current projects/programmes that are being undertaken by the city. Level C refers to those risks that need to be periodically monitored to assess if level of risk has changed. Lastly level D refers to those risk factors that are not significant for the CoT hence no action is required. All risk factors where prioritised and from that assessment the following were identified as the key areas which should be prioritised for Action level A.
Priority risks associated with changes in temperature
1. Loss of biodiversity and habitat 2. Increased food insecurity and loss of livestock
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3. Increased pollutants have an impact on air quality 4. Human discomfort from increased temperatures5. Increased demand for energy for heating or cooling6. Increased risk and incidence of vector bone diseases, pests and pathogens affecting human
and animal health
Priority risks associated with changes in rainfall
1. Loss of biodiversity especially in the grassland biome2. Decreased productivity of agro-ecosystems 3. Less rainfall has impacts on surface and ground water sources4. Impact on fresh water ecosystems 5. Less water available for domestic, industrial and agricultural use (water insecurity)6. Reduced benefit of ecosystems services from natural resource based activities such as
agriculture, forestry and fisheries
Priority risks associated with extreme weather events
1. Increase water stress for biodiversity and socio-economic activities2. Changes in quality and quantity of water as water sources get contaminated with effluents 3. Human discomfort due to increased exposure to heat waves 4. Damage to infrastructure and public works (communication systems, roads, bridges)5. Flooding of human settlements 6. Failure of sewage and storm water systems during extreme rainfall 7. Increased hail damage to cars, solar geysers business and residential property8. Increased risk of sinkholes due to intense storms and floods
8.3 Adaptations options for key sectors
Adaptation generally refers to the changes in bio-physical, social and/or economic systems in response to an actual or expected climatic impact and its effect (Mukheibir and Ziervogel, 2006). Adapting to climate change requires both human and natural systems to adjust to actual or expected changes in climate and associated effects and build resilience through better decisions about managing our built and natural environment and taking advantage of opportunities. As mentioned earlier planning for climate change adaptation requires an understanding of the current risks and vulnerability as well as the projected changes/ risks in the future. This information can be derived from primary and secondary data on current and future climate projections, stakeholders at risk as well as those who play a role in response actions.
The South African government is working together with the private and public sector (including communities) on reducing greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation). However some changes in climate are inevitable. The City of Tshwane like many parts of the country has also been experiencing
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climate change related disasters and extreme weather events. In recent years heat waves have been experienced across the City and in the province with weather alerts being issued to the public (January 2013 and 2014 heat waves). Flash floods have caused damage to bridges and roads often resulting in road closures in areas such as Centurion in March 2009; September 2009; December 201; January 2013 and March 2014 as an example (Floodlist, 2014). Hailstorms have also ravaged through the City causing major destruction to both private and public property such as roofs, windows, solar heating systems and cars (November 2013 hailstorm affected about 44 800 households in areas such as Mamelodi and Soshanguve). This illustrates the need to manage this risk by adapting to these changes and projected changes in the future.
In order to develop sustainable adaptation options there is need to have an understanding of past events, their effects and how people have responded in the past i.e. their adaptive capacity. Certain sectors representatives indicated that they did not have adaptation projects hence options are found in to and could be adopted by different sectors in order for them to meet their development priorities. Sectors such as transport and housing and human settlements already have some mechanisms and development projects in place but they need to be reviewed and refined where possible. This section also requires regular revision and refinement as research and stakeholder engagement occur in the future. Sector specific vulnerability information was obtained from workshops conducted with City of Tshwane sector department representatives and secondary material. Secondary literature is also used here to identify possible adaptation options for each sector and it is anticipated that this would help sectors select possible adaptation options in the future. Adaptation options from the Long Term Adaptation Scenarios reports are also included.
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8.4 Physical sectors
8.4.1 Natural Environment
Table 9: Natural environment
Key vulnerabilities and impacts Adaptation options
Temperature
Increased risk and incidence of fires Increased risk and incidence of vector bone diseases, pests and
pathogens Loss of biodiversity- including forestry, fisheries and livestockRainfall Loss of biodiversity especially in the grassland biome Productivity of rangelands
Extreme weather events
Droughts and heat waves increase water stress for biodiversity and can increase the frequency and intensity of wildfires (Schneider et al, 2007)
Potential increase in global warming due to the release of accumulated carbon from soils and biosphere into the atmosphere as a result of prolonged droughts and fires (Schneider et al, 2007)
Loss of fresh water ecosystems and species Change of land cover and increased invasion of alien species Potential spread of pests and diseases
Vulnerability assessment and mapping of vulnerable areas including wetlands, floodplains and informal settlements
Monitoring and evaluation of greenhouse gas emissions
Early warning system to inform stakeholders of impending disasters such as hailstorm, heat waves, floods and droughts.
Wetland rehabilitation and management Removal of alien plants and replacing them with
indigenous plants Build capacity with in communities to engage in
green jobs Protect fresh water habitats and resources to
promote growth of marines species Rebuilding over exploited fish resources and
affected ecosystems Raise awareness to the public on ecosystem
based adaptation and how they can be involved
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8.4.2 Air
Table 10: Air
Key Vulnerabilities and impacts Adaptation options
Temperature
Increased temperature have potential to increase pollutants such as particulate matter, sulphur dioxide and carbon monoxide
Increased pollutants have an impact human health is exacerbated by socio-economic factors resulting in acute respiratory infection, chronic respiratory diseases and TB
Legislation to reduce ambient particular matter, ozone and sulphur dioxide
Air quality management guidelines Raise awareness with public on climate change, the impact
of burning fossil fuels on air quality and human health Provide poor communities with alternative sources of
energy for heating and cooking Invest in research to improve understanding on impact of
changes in other climate variable on air quality Early warning system to raise alert the prevalence of
disease caused by air pollutants
7.1.1 Water
Table 11: Water resource
Key vulnerabilities and impacts Adaptation options
Temperature
Decrease in water quality could lead to water insecurity as rivers, dams and other water sources dry up due to increased evaporation
Increased salinity of dams/lakes due to over-use and decrease in groundwater recharge which can also be attributed to reduction in rainfall.
Rainfall
Less rainfall has impacts on the hydrological cycle and could reduce the water available in both surface and ground water sources
Possible reductions in mean flows of rivers Impact on fresh water ecosystems Less water available for domestic, industrial and
agricultural use
Extreme weather events
Changes in quality and quantity of water as water sources get contaminated with effluents
Early warning system to inform municipalities of impending floods and droughts e.g. increasing storage capacity in drier periods.
Improve coordination with other sector departments particularly when developing sector specific adaptation responses
Wetland management Community awareness raising campaigns on climate
change, water conservation and adaptation manual Climate change awareness cmpaigns for all
stakeholders in the trans boundary basin Upgrade of infrastructure to monitor water and curb
losses due to leakages Rainwater harvesting for household and agricultural
use Make use of waste water or water from sewage
treatment Water restrictions for some activities Water pressure management- reduce water lost
through leakages by decreasing the amount of water in pipes during off peak times
Increase adaptive capacity of institutions responsible for water management and governance
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8.5 Social-economic sectors
8.5.1 Human health
Table 12: Key vulnerabilities and adaptation options related to Human health
Key vulnerabilities and impacts Adaptation options
Temperature
Increased risk and incidence of VBZD pathogens in host and vector populations (mosquitos, ticks) resulting in vector-borne diseases in humans.
Increase in non –communicable cardiovascular and respiratory diseases such as asthma and bronchitis as a result of increased pollution and temperature
Increased risk of death and injuries due to fires Increased demand on health system
Rainfall
Increase and spread of vector bone diseases, pests and pathogens
Food insecurity and malnutrition Increased demand on health system (e.g. medical
supplies, hospitalisation)
Extreme weather events
Impact on air quality which results in increased exposure to pollutants which causes eye irritation, acute respiratory infection and chronic respiratory diseases
Human discomfort due to increased exposure to heat waves and frosts
Disruption on food supply could result in increased food shortages and malnutrition especially in areas where subsistence farming is used for food security
Injuries as a result of exposure to floods and hailstorm for example November 2013 hail in the CoT
Increased illness and deaths due to diseases such as cholera
Drowning as a result of disasters such as floods and storms
Upgrade sanitation systems to curb seepage of sewage into underground water and the spread of disease
Increase resources (health supplies, food supplies and human resources) for emergencies such as floods and hailstorms
Awareness raising and training communities on fire fighting and fire rescue skills
Increase public awareness on malaria, cholera and other diseases and how to manage these
Multidisciplinary ecosystem-based studies to identify hosts, vectors, and pathogens with the greatest potential to affect human populations under climate change scenarios.
Keep records and monitor health data Monitoring air quality Increase investment in research on the impacts of
climate change on diseases and human health Research and technologies to improve food
preservation and storage Diversifying in food crops to allow for systems to be
resilient in the event of a disaster that affect a particular food crop e.g. maize
Community outreach programme to educate people on the health risks of increasing temperature.
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8.5.2 Infrastructure (e.g. roads, bridges and storm water drainage system)
Table 13: Infrastructure
Key vulnerabilities and impacts Adaptation options
Temperature
Drying up of dams and other water sources which can become redundant also affecting terrestrial biodiversity
Deterioration of heat sensitive infrastructure such as roads
Extreme weather events
Changes in frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events such as flash floods and hailstorms can damage to infrastructure and public works ( e.g. communication systems, recreational facilities, roads and bridges)
Increased expenditure on repairs to and rebuilding of public infrastructure
Failure of sewage and storm water systems during extreme rainfall
Spend more money purifying sewage that has been infiltrated by rain
Mapping of vulnerable areas as well as the relocation of existing developments in high risk areas
Retaining of storm water through rain water tanks, penetrable pavements and green roofs
Upgrade ageing infrastructure (e.g. in Region 1) and maintain storm water in all regions to keep them clear of any sand and rubbish which often contributes to floods
Use heat resistant material for construction of roads and maintain these regularly
Ensure adequate budget for maintenance of infrastructure such as roads and storm water drainage
8.5.3 Energy
Table 14: Energy
Key vulnerabilities and impacts Adaptation options
Temperature
Increased demand for energy for heating or cooling
Rainfall
Decreased rainfall has an impact on generation of hydro electricity
Extreme weather events
Loss and damage of energy supply infrastructure (e.g. disruption of Eskom powerlines, coalfields getting soaked with water)
Damage to solar water geyser equipment by hailstorm Increased demand for energy
Assessing and investing in different renewable energy options e.g. bioenergy, solar
Solar water heaters
Thermal heating of low cost houses
Smart meters to encourage users to manage electricity well
Community awareness programmes to educate them on energy conservation and alternative energy sources
Improve material used for solar water geysers Efficient appliance programmes (kettles, energy
saving lights) to reduce use of non-renewable energy
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8.5.4 Human settlements
Table 15: Human settlements
Key vulnerabilities and impacts Adaptation options
Temperature
Discomfort especially in homes which are not insulated
Rainfall
Water shortages Decrease in water pressure which also affects those
who use water tanks
Extreme weather events
Damage to buildings (roof, doors and windows) especially for low cost houses where building material is not SABS approved. Affected by flash floods, tropical cyclones, strong winds and hailstorms
Damage to houses with asbestos which ends up being dumped and affect the environment and human health
Loss of human life Flooding in homes can lead to loss and damage to
personal assets such as fridges, stoves, books, photographs and identity documents
Increased expenditure for individuals and local government on recovery and repairs
Upgrading (or relocation) of informal settlement infrastructure in areas that are vulnerable to flooding e.g. eastern parts of region 1
De-densification of informal settlements to reduce fire risk e.g. Soshanguve
Densification of formal settlements e.g. multistory buildings
Encourage mixed land use developments e.g. CoT urban core project
Fire breaks between vegetation and residential areas Increase the quality of social houses to ensure they
have ceilings to keep them warm in cold months and cooler in the hot months
Improve the quality of building material used for building low cost houses so that its durable
Upgrade of roof for homes with asbestos e.g. Upgrade sanitation systems Ensure adequate budget for maintenance of
infrastructure Restrict development within flood lines
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8.5.5 Social and economic development
Table 16: Social economic development
Key vulnerabilities and impacts Adaptation options
Temperature
Reduced productivity of workers due to increased exposure to high temperatures, disease and other health risks.
Productivity of natural resource based activities such as agriculture, fisheries and tourism are likely to decrease
Rainfall
Increased likelihood of droughts can affect livelihoods, food prices and food security e.g citrus production in Winterveld
Reduced productivity in subsistence rain-fed agriculture
Reduced benefit of ecosystems services from natural resource based activities such as agriculture, forestry and fisheries
Overharvesting of natural resources to meet livelihoods needs
Social discontent Forced migration/ displacement of communities Change in land use
Extreme weather events
Floods can potentially result in damage to livelihoods and public infrastructure used for social and economic development
Loss of revenue for businesses and livelihoods e.g tourism as people select destinations with less risks
Increased insurance claims which results in increased insurance premiums
Increased livelihood insecurity, resulting in assets sale, indebtedness, out-migration and dependency on food aid
Risk and vulnerability assessments and mapping of vulnerable social groups, regions and economic sectors
Monitoring of hazard trends location, frequency and magnitude within the CoT and neighboring areas
Awareness raising in communities on climate change risk and response strategies (including resources available) for all regions
Training of community volunteers to assist in the event of a disaster which also provides them with skills that they can use to look for jobs
Curtail urban sprawl to avoid uneconomic spread of development which will be difficult to provide with basic services e.g. region 1
Promote investment community food production- urban gardens which promote environmental conservation practices especially in areas such as region 2 and 3
More efficient management of applications of nitrogen fertilizer and manure on cultivated fields.
implement integrated agro-forestry systems that combine crops, grazing lands and trees in ecologically sustainable ways e.g region 7 which has great agriculture potential
Conservation agriculture to improve soil organic matter management with permanent organic soil cover, minimum mechanical soil disturbance and crop rotation
Ensure water security for the poor and marginalized sectors of the society e.g. people in informal settlements
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8.5.6 Disaster Management
Table 17: Disaster management
Key vulnerabilities and impacts Adaptation options
Temperature
Increased incidents of fires and heat waves requiring emergency services to help communities
Rainfall
Increased incidents of droughts affecting several sectors with require emergency services and relief aid
Extreme weather events
Increased incidents of floods, hailstorm, strong winds and landslides which require emergency services, volunteers and relief aid
Early warning system to improve disaster risk reduction and management
Risk and vulnerability assessments at local level to determine current and future climate change impacts that would inform adaptation options
Raise awareness on the importance of early warning information by providing communication materials to raise awareness and mainstream disaster risk reduction at the local level
Integrate local knowledge and practices on adaptation and early warning with those of the scientific community
Disaster management to coordinate response mechanisms by different sectors and ensure that disaster risk reduction is seen as a priority for local planning and development
monitor and evaluation of climate change activities/projects so that they do not get pushed from the agenda by more pressing developmental issues
Improve the role played by extension services in the dissemination of warnings
Training of municipal staff and volunteers to improve adaptive capacity to extreme weather events
Procurement of equipment for risk reduction and management
Increase public-private partnership to develop and implement adaptation projects
De-densification of informal settlements
Source for Tables : Mukheibir and Ziervogel, 2006; Schneider et.al, 2007; Musvoto and Murambadoro, 2009; Visser and van Nierkerk, 2009; UNEP, 2011; DEA et.al, 2012; City of Tshwane, 2013c; DEA, 2013a; DEA 2013b; DEA, 2013c
The tables above do not present the comprehensive list of impacts and vulnerabilities for the CoT and more may be added in the future. Multi-sectoral collaboration is essential in research on climate change impacts, and the development and implementation of adaptation policies, programmes and projects. There is need for a coordinated and consistent process to ensure effective adaptation and guard against maladaptation. Another key factor that helps with effective climate change adaptation
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is for local governments and decision makers to assess the links between their local, national and international objectives across all sector departments (Mant et. al, 2014).
9 City of Tshwane Proposed Adaptation Action Plan
9.1 Introduction
Climate change continues to threaten the ability of all local governments to achieve their mandate as disasters cause damage to both public and private infrastructure, sources of livelihoods and also increases the municipal budget on disaster recovery. The CoT has taken the initiative to be proactive through preparedness and planning to reduce risks and levels of impact given the extent of damage from recent climate related weather events. An example is the November 2013 hailstorm that affected 44 800 households in regions 1 and 6 resulting in institutional damages worth more than R23 million (CoT, 2014). The content presented in this chapter was developed by the project team based on desktop research and minimum input sector departments. The plan is therefore a living document that should be revised and updated when new information becomes available and stakeholders provide inputs so as to enhance the CoT adaptive capacity.
As mentioned previously some of the changes in climate are unavoidable, therefore there is need to prepare and adapt to them to reduce the negative impacts. The adaptation plan represents the CoT’s commitment to climate change adaptation. It is also based on the climate change projections (Chapter 3) and identified vulnerabilities (Chapter 4) presented in this report and the following conclusions may be drawn from those projections:
Temperature increases of between 4 and 6.5 °C are plausible towards the end of the century High fire danger is projected for the City of Tshwane under low mitigation scenarios. The number of heat wave days is projected to increase rapidly under climate change, with
about 120 days per year by the end of the century. Tshwane is projected to become generally drier as rainfall is projected to decrease by about
50 mm by the end of the Century. A general increase in the frequency of occurrence of extreme rainfall events (20 mm of rain
falling within 24 hours over). A decrease in the projected number of days with frost.
An assessment of current climate risk and future climate change projections has also been conducted to identify risks in the CoT that should be prioritised for adaptation. These are used to inform priority adaptation actions and are listed below; Risk factor 1: Loss of ecosystem goods and services
Risk factor2: Increased energy demand Risk factor 3: Increase in diseases affecting human and animal healthRisk factor 4: Damage to infrastructure (storm water systems, roads, bridges) Risk factor 5: Water insecurity
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Risk factor 6: Flooding and damage to human settlements and private propertyRisk factor 7: Increase in sinkholesRisk factor 8: Decreased productivity of agro ecosystems affecting food security
Climate change vulnerability in CoT is a result of a combination of social, economic and ecological factors such as the ageing infrastructure (e.g. region1), increasing population demand on infrastructure which increases pressure on the systems such as the storm water drainage system. Other factors include the geographical local of human settlements in areas that are susceptible to floods especially highly populated informal settlements (e.g. Regions 1, 2, 3 and 6). The impact on some sectors is more severe and the sensitivity of each sector to particular climate variable varies. For example ageing infrastructure found in previously disadvantaged communities who are located on flood plains and have little resources available to cope and recover from disasters makes them more vulnerable to intense rainstorms and hailstorms. Responding to these risk factors would require partnerships between sectors such as the human settlements, roads and storm water infrastructure planning, social development, disaster management and emergency services. Effective and efficient adaptation should have input from different stakeholders at various levels of government, private sector, civil society, researchers and operational implementers.
This plan encompasses the following sections,- 6.1 Introduction 6.2. Linking the adaptation plan to key adaptation goals that have been identified in the Green Economy Transition Framework6.3 Adaptation actions 6.4. Milestones and timelines 6.5. Conclusion
The following section assesses how adaptation focus areas identified in the CoT Framework for a Green Economy align with the risk factors and adaptation action areas in this study. This process was done to see synergies between the green economy framework and the adaptation plan which both strive to contribute towards the CoT long term goal in the Tshwane Vision 2055 strategy. Climate change adaptation is an intervention that contributes to ensuring a resilient and resource efficient city.
9.2 Linking the plan to key adaptation goals in the green economy framework
Three key green economy themes were identified in the Framework for Green Economy Transition to be critical for climate change adaptation and building resilience of the City. They were developed in the absence of a proper baseline that would allow for effective monitoring and evaluation. These are:
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Maintenance and provision of ecosystem goods and services (links to vulnerability section under biodiversity, water, air, land use and land cover sections in Chapter 4). Sustainable communities: health and social development (links to human health, human
settlements sections found in chapter 4). Sustainable agriculture and food security (links to land use and land cover, water
resources, human health, agriculture and livelihoods sections discussed in chapter 4).
These themes are cross cutting and have been linked here to the key risk areas identified above for adaptation and the vulnerability of sectors as identified above. However other adaptation focus areas that the Cot could focus on emerged from the risk and vulnerability assessment these are improved water security and efficient energy supply. Figure 30 provides an overview of the eight priority risk factors that could inhibit the CoT from achieving its strategic objectives as highlighted in the IDP 2014/15 and the long term vision in Tshwane Vision 2055. The two additional adaptation focus areas are critical to addressing water insecurity and increased energy demand which may have been put under mitigation but they also need to be part of adaptation.
Figure 30. Link between adaptation focus areas and priority risks.
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Maintanence & provision of
ecosystem goods & services
Loss of ecosystem goods and services
Water insecurity
Sustainable communities:
health & social
development
Increase in diseases affecting human health
Damage to infrastructure
Flooding &damage to
human settlements &
private property
Increase in
sinkholes
Increase in energy
demand
Sustainable agriculture
& food security
Water insecurity
Loss of ecosystem
goods & services
Decreased productivity of agro ecosystems affecting
food security
Improved water security
Efficient energy supply
Linking green economy adaptation goals and priority risks in CoT
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9.3 Adaptation Actions for priority risks
As mentioned earlier adaptation actions presented here seek to address the priority risks that increase the CoT vulnerability to climate change and climate variability.
9.3.1 Risk factor 1: Loss of ecosystem goods and services
This risk factor area links with the UNFCCC Cancun Adaptation Framework (2010) which supports ecosystem based adaptation by ensuring that vulnerable ecosystems are integrated into adaptation through appropriate social, economic and environmental policies and activities (Mante et.al., 2014). Research indicates that the decline in ecosystem goods and services is likely to be worsened by climate change (DEA, 2013a). Ecosystem goods and services that can be enjoyed in urban systems include increased resilience to extreme weather events such as floods by having parks and conservation areas. Green areas can also help promote pollination and reduce air pollution by filtration of the air as well as through carbon sequestration. Healthy ecosystems can also provide filtration and purification of water which would lower the cost of doing this artificially (ICLEI,n.d; UNEP, 2010). The following have been identified as the key ecosystem based adaptation actions to address loss of ecosystem goods and services and this includes the current adaptation actions.
Key actions
The following are current actions that the city should continue with as they help curb the loss of ecosystem goods and services.
Conservation and rehabilitation of degraded ecosystems Listing of indigenous trees in each region which are planted in parks, traffic islands and road
reserves. The project also included the establishment of a nursery to grow the indigenous trees to be used in the city when needed.
Clearing and control of alien invasive plants (focus on catchments, rivers and wetlands) Establishing and maintaining protected areas or conservation areas Water scarcity project Continual updating of biodiversity assessments to monitor and review the status of sensitive
areas such as wetlands and bio-reserves, and inform their rehabilitation where needed Maintaining or restoring buffers of natural vegetation in riparian areas
Build capacity of key role players and improve management ecosystems
Nature related environmental education, information, awareness and capacity building (which include internships with students from Tshwane University of Technology and the “Groen sebenza” program)
Integrating ecological infrastructure into land-use planning and decision-making Improving rangeland management practise
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Other actions
Ensure that ecological areas within the CoT boundary are placed under the jurisdiction of the city
Incorporate ground water resources in the water management plans in the CoT Engage with other stakeholders such as Working for Wetlands programme on community
raising awareness on wetlands.
9.3.2 Risk factor2: Increased energy demand
Temperatures in the CoT are projected to increase and rainfall is likely to decrease. It is therefore anticipated that there will be an increasing demand for energy for domestic and industrial cooling. Addressing this risk factor has to be done to ensure that residents are industry are more energy efficient.
Actions for the energy demand side
Retrofitting buildings and other public infrastructure Insulating low cost homes so that they are cooler in summer and warmer in winter Promoting energy efficient appliances (energy saving bulbs, washing machines etc) Raising awareness on energy conservation practices Provide incentives for industry to save energy and use renewable sources of energy
Actions for supply side
Invest in renewable energy sources (e.g. increased opportunity for solar energy as projections highlight increasing temperatures over Tshwane)
Converting waste to energy (e.g. biogas) Smart meters to encourage users to manage electricity well Put more stringent measures in place to avoid and punish those found guilty of connecting
to electricity illegally
9.3.3 Risk factor 3: Increase in diseases affecting human and animal health
This risk factor can derail the city from achieving the adaptation goal on sustainable communities through health and social development. Diseases, pests, pathogens, increased temperature and increased air pollutants are some of the factors that aggravate diseases affecting both human and animals. Ensuring sustainable communities contributes to international goals such as the Millennium Development Goals aimed at eradicating extreme poverty and hunger, improving maternal health, reducing child mortality, combating HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases. Other diseases such as malaria, bilharzia and cholera are likely to be exacerbated by extreme rainfall events resulting in flooding and high temperatures (CoJ, 2009). These will be more prevalent in informal settlements
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where there inadequate drinking water, sewer and limited refuse collection. The following actions were identified as key actions for adaptation to reduce diseases affecting human and animals.
Key actions for vector borne diseases
Continue with efforts to enhance the efficiency of service delivery and ensure universal access to public services (water, sanitation, electricity, health care and housing) especially for communities in flood lines and previously disadvantaged areas
Maintenance and upgrading of existing storm water infrastructure
Key actions for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases
Reduce greenhouse gases through actions such as:o Improving access to cleaner energy for cooking and heating. o Continued rollout of solar water geysers especially in low cost houses o Expanding the current Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system which provides public with
affordable, comfortable, safe and reliable public transport while cutting down the number of private car users (greenhouse gases). The first phase of this project is on Nana Sita Street, past University Road servicing Arcadia and Hatfield.
Community outreach programme to educate people on the health risks of increasing temperature and heat waves
Other actions
Monitoring of vector diseases in the city Continue with city wide clean up campaigns Upgrade and maintain health facilities to ensure that they can provide emergency services
when most needed.
9.3.4 Risk factor 4: Damage to infrastructure (storm water systems, roads, bridges)
Tshwane Vision 2055 strategy acknowledges that setting up, operation and maintenance of infrastructure is expensive. However provision of quality infrastructure promotes sustainable communities and such as there is need to invest in and maintain critical infrastructure that reduces risks. Sections of the city have inadequate and ageing infrastructure that is vulnerable to intense rain resulting in flooding. The following adaptation actions have been identified to reduce the risk of damage to infrastructure.
Key adaptation actions
Use information from vulnerability assessments to identify vulnerable areas, make use of resilient designs and building material as well as the relocation of existing developments in high risk areas
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Continue with the urban core project which are high-density activity nodes that present economic, social and residential potential in integrated environments, linked to public transport facilities e.g. Mabopane (Infrastructurene.ws, 2014). This cuts down the spending on provision and maintenance of infrastructure as users and systems are in a manageable space
Promote projects that provide sustainable road infrastructure to allow residents of Tshwane to experience tangible socio-economic and spatial transformation. Road and storm water infrastructure built in Soshanguve and Mabopane (Infrastructurene.ws, 2014)
Increase operational budget for maintenance of infrastructure such as storm water drainage systems
Upgrade and maintain water and sewer infrastructure to reduce backlog and meet new demand
Carry on with plans to establish a sample green neighbourhood in Zitobeni
Other actions
Retaining of storm water through rain water tanks, penetrable pavements and green roofs
9.3.5 Risk factor 5: Water insecurity
CoT is expected to become drier with projected decrease in rainfall of about 30mm by the 2040’s and 50 mm by the end of the century. Temperature increases of about 2°C are projected to have occurred by the 2040’s this likely to increase to a range between 4 and 6.5 °C by the end of the century. Changes in rainfall, temperature and extreme weather events such as droughts have an impact on water quality and quantity. CoT gets its water from catchments shared with other local government hence it important that partnerships are built with other water users to ensure sustainability of the resource. The following have been put forward as adaptation actions to curb water insecurity in the CoT.
Actions on the demand side
Encourage rainwater harvesting for household, industrial and agricultural use (e.g. garden irrigation)
Promote projects that make use of waste water or water from sewage treatment Encourage residents to report water leakages immediately Use of water efficient fittings on taps, showers and toilets
Actions on the supply side
Early warning system to inform municipalities of impending floods and droughts e.g. increasing storage capacity in drier periods.
Improve coordination with other sector departments particularly when developing sector specific adaptation responses
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Water restrictions for some activities such as landscape and garden irrigation Upgrade of infrastructure to monitor water and curb losses due to leakages Water pressure management- reduce water lost through leakages by decreasing the amount
of water in pipes during off peak times Increase adaptive capacity of institutions responsible for water management and
governance so they respond quickly to reported incidents
Other actions
Community awareness raising campaigns on climate change, water conservation and adaptation manual
Climate change awareness campaigns for all stakeholders in the trans boundary basin Wetland management Incentivise the use of drip irrigation systems, which use 30-60% less water than conventional
sprinkler systems (CoJ, 2009).
9.3.6 Risk factor 6: Flooding and damage to human settlements and private property due to extreme weather events (floods and hailstorm)
Urbanisation and geographical location of human settlements in the CoT is sprawled. Historical factors such as apartheid have influenced the settlement patterns in the city. A key feature is the uneven quality of development between townships and more affluent areas of the city. There are also limited social and economic opportunities in the townships. Studies show that some of the human settlements in townships are vulnerable to flooding because there are located on floodplains and also because they have ageing and poorly maintained or inadequate storm water drainage system. A significant number of homes in townships had asbestos roofs and these are vulnerable to extreme weather events such as hailstorms and intense rainfall. The following are suggested actions that should be taken to reduce the risk of flooding and damage to human settlements and private property
Engage with hydrological specialists to conduct future flood line assessment for all regions as information for some regions is currently missing (Regions 5and 7). This information may be available but with the amalgamation of the former district municipalities this information has not been consolidated
Provision of durable low cost houses to residents as is being currently done in areas such as Hammanskraal Proper, Hammanskraal West Proper, Hammanskraal West Ext 1, Stinkwater RDP, Stinkwater Ext 1 to 3
Nissan South Africa Blue Citizenship global housing initiative which started in 2013 aims at provide200 beneficiaries with decent housing and restore dignity through property ownership in Ga-Rankuwa Zone 10.
Invest, design and construct sustainable infrastructure
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Upgrade and/relocation informal settlements and promote safe construction of non-engineered building
Enforce compliance with building regulations
Other actions
Raising community awareness and encourage people to avoid settling on flood plains and use SAB approved building materials and change asbestos roofs.
9.3.7 Risk factor 7: Increase in sinkholes
As discussed in chapter 4 large sections of region 4, parts of region 3 and 6 have dolomite land are susceptible to sinkholes and subsidence formation primarily through ground water level drawdown and ingress of water (See map 4.11). Development has already occurred in these areas and as such the CoT will in most instances have to respond to the sinkhole related emergencies.
Key actions
Development planning, development types and densities to be informed with the hazard zonation of the dolomite areas
Create and maintain a dolomite risk management database Target group awareness campaigns Build capacity of emergency services and inter-departmental task teams or steering
committees to respond when needed Put measures in place to meet current and evolving statutory requirements on dolomites.
9.3.8 Risk factor 8: Decreased productivity of agro ecosystems affecting food security
The role of agriculture in Tshwane need to be explored further as potential for this economic activity is often undervalued (CoT, 2013c). Currently there are some agricultural activities are undertaken in different parts of Tshwane including Regions 5, 6, 7 and northern parts of Region 2. Agriculture production and food security are threatened by the projected decrease in rainfall which would affect water available for crops and livestock. Increased temperature reduces soil moisture, affects soil fertility while increased incidence of extreme weather events such as heat waves affects the productivity of crops such as maize and livestock e.g. dairy cattle (Musvoto and Murambadoro, 2009). Addressing this risk factor would also enhance the sustainable agriculture theme in the Green economy framework which seeks to increase the production and nutritional quality of food, ensure food security, sustainable livelihoods and resilient ecosystems (CoT, 2013c).
Key actions
Sustainable and conservation agriculture projects that promote minimum tillage and organic farming
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Rain water harvesting Enhancing skills and knowledge in organic production and agro-ecology practices, for
example, through the "Moringa Tree" Project and the National Organic Produce Initiative 55 Diversifying crops to less sensitive varieties
Other activities
Develop the infrastructure required for successful local food markets, as well as green packing houses and processing facilities that add value to local produce
Promote community food production and establish food gardens at public institutions such as clinics, hospitals, schools and prisons
Increase awareness of the relationship between ecosystem services, food security and nutrition within Tshwane
9.3.9 Strategic adaptation actions
It is essential that other strategic actions be put in place by the CoT to ensure its transition to a resilient city. The Hailstorm report (CoT, 2014) recommends that the city adopts a ten point checklist based on the five priorities of the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015. Specific actions that could be undertaken under the checklist are discussed in that report. Some of the key adaptation strategic issues emanating from list focus on planning, finance, stakeholder engagement and information and technology management and are highlighted below.
Planning
Urban development planning and decision making should be informed by the information on hazards, vulnerability and recommendations from risk assessments. It should also include enforcing building regulations, land use planning principles and identification and upgrading of unsafe informal settlements.
Finance
Climate adaptation is not easy and it is not cheap. Adaptation strategies can be integrated into development projects as budgeted by the municipality however these can be costly. Therefore the CoT needs to explore other funding mechanisms available to fund adaptation projects.
Stakeholder engagement
Adaptation also requires engagement with both internal stakeholders and external stakeholders. The CoT Sustainability Office could play a leading role in cross sectoral coordination and provide strategic direction for the City to implement strategic goals and integrated responses. It also needs to communicate the projected climate change information to all stakeholders including the public. Internal stakeholders include those structures within the CoT whose input may help update this adaptation plan as they also identify vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies for their respective
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sectors. This also includes education programmes and training on disaster risk management for communities.
Engaging with external stakeholders includes those structures outside the CoT whom the city could build strategic linkages to help with effective and cohesive policies for their programmes and projects. Such stakeholders include neighbouring municipalities whose actions may have an impact on the CoT. These include Waterberg District Municipality, City of Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni, Gauteng provincial government and water catchment management authorities.
Information and technology management
This strategic action could be achieved through inventories that maintain up to date data on the CoT hazards, risk assessments and land use classification which would be the foundation for urban development and decisions Other technical systems that are required included an early warning system generates that disseminates timely and effective information so that people exposed to risk can take action, to avoid or reduce their risk and prepare for effective response (UNISDR, 2009). The Disaster Management Centre is playing a key role in disseminating alerts and warnings as issued by the relevant authorities such as the South African Weather Services.
9.4 Milestones and Timelines for implementation of specific actions
The City of Tshwane Vision 2055 highlights milestones and timelines in the transition to a resilient and resource efficient city. These have been adopted here from the vision, to ensure that the adaptation actions identified in this report contribute towards achieving the key outcomes as set in the Vision 2055 strategy document. Figure 31 below shows the key milestones and timelines to be achieved in the next 40 years.
Figure 31. Key milestones and timelines (Source: CoT, 2013a).
The period in which these milestones are to be achieved overlaps with the period when significant changes in rainfall, temperature and extreme weather events are likely to occur. Projections suggest that from the 2040’s increases in temperature of about 2°C are plausible over Tshwane. In that same period rainfall is projected to decrease by 30mm while the number of days with heat waves will probably increase by 60days. It is therefore essential that the CoT steps up adaptation options to ensure that key risk factors identified above do not constrain the city from achieving its long term goal and the milestones per decade. It is important to note that these timelines are also coinciding
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with the LTAS near future period (2015-2035) and mid future period (2040-2060) and the National Development Plan timelines and milestones.
9.5 Adaptive Capacity and existing barriers in Tshwane
Second-generation vulnerability assessment requires that an evaluation of the capacity of the key roles players to implement these adaptation options be done (Füssel and Klein, 2006). Table 18 highlights results from the sector department stakeholder engagement process which sought to analyse the capacity of the CoT to adapt to climate change as well as some of the barriers that may hinder/ threaten this process
Table 18: Institutional adaptive capacity and barriers for the CoT.
Capacity to adapt Barriers that may hinder adaptation
Existing and functional Disaster Management Department
Existing legislative capacity in the form of Acts, Ordinances, Regulations, and bylaws that can be used to integrate climate change across sectors e.g. Framework for green economy transition
Community NGO’s and CBO’s established to strengthen the course for adaptations and programs
Great strides made in disaster preparedness education and awareness in communities
Pre-planning through establishment of Sustainability desk in the office of Executive Mayor
Limited budget allocated for maintenance of infrastructure and other adaptation projects/initiatives
Uncertainty on the actual changes in climate and how it affects certain sectors
Increased expenditure on more pressing and immediate problems
Costs of initiating adaptation projects Willingness to implement and effective prosecution in
cases of non-compliance Attitude of local government officials who are
unreceptive to new information and new ways of doing things
Lack of practical guide on how to integrate climate change into respective sectors
Lack of skilled personnel At times there is insufficient allocation of Disaster
funding during the incidences Limitations around renewable energy which cannot
feed back into the grid
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9.6 Conclusion
There are several drivers of change that the CoT needs to respond to as highlighted the CoT Vision 2055. These include both climatic and non-climatic factors such as changes in temperature, rainfall and extreme weather events; population dynamics and migration; health, poverty and increasing inequalities; resource security; as well as urban form, sprawl, housing, transportation and mobility (CoT, 2013a). As mentioned earlier adaptation options listed in the document are not exhaustive as such other options should be incorporated into the plan as new information emerges. Climate change initiatives in general need to be reviewed regularly so that response actions are update. Key vulnerable sectors in the CoT where adaptation actions should focus on are biodiversity, human health, infrastructure, water, human settlements and socio- economic. Eight risk factors in the CoT have been prioritised for action and these include loss of ecosystem goods and services; increased energy demand; and damage to infrastructure (storm water systems, roads, bridges).
Local government therefore need to anticipate challenges as there is uncertainty with regards to magnitude, timing and distribution of climate change impacts. They should also note as pointed earlier that climate change adaptation is not easy and it’s not cheap. Decision makers therefore need to be flexible enough to accommodate these changes and consider timely response as well as appropriate monitoring and evaluation systems.
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10 Monitoring, reporting, verification and evaluation (MRVE)
10.1 Introduction
Monitoring Reporting, Verification and Evaluation in climate change adaptation can be done firstly to track the progress of the implementation of the adaptation plan and secondly measuring the success of the adaptation plan. It is difficult to measure the latter, which is related to the MRVE of adaptation impacts, due to a number of challenges. For example, the impact of adaptation may only be evident decades from the time of implementation (temporal limitations). This is also dependent upon uncertain and unknown future and social economic conditions. In addition, there is no agreed metric to determine the effectiveness of adaptation projects in reducing potential impacts since vulnerability assessments are based on value-judgements, unlike mitigation projects which have technical indicators (e.g. carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations). It is therefore difficult to measure when a significant change has occurred as a result of implementing an adaptation project, making it difficult to define what adaptation looks like in reality (DEA, 2014).
This section of the report presents the MRVE system proposed as an internal management tool to provide information on the gap between the expectation of the project and the results achieved from the actions contained in the adaptation plan. The MRVE of the implementation of the adaptation plan will help the CoT achieve its long term goal (impact) of being a resilient city as this provides learning through feedback into the planning and decision making process.
South Africa has in recent years, begun the process of developing the country’s Climate Change Response Monitoring and Evaluation system in order to ensure the effective implementation of climate change responses. At an urban level, there is currently no MRVE system in place for adaptation projects, and to date local climate change adaptation strategies have not included MRVE systems.
As a signatory of the Durban Adaptation Charter, the CoT has a responsibility to ensure that l ocal climate action in their jurisdiction will assist communities in the city to respond to and cope with climate change risks. The CoT further has a responsibility to ensure that the objectives of these strategies are implemented, monitored, evaluated and mainstreamed into statutory government planning processes. As such Action 8 of the Charter requires all signatories to develop an acceptable, robust, transparent, measurable, reportable and verifiable register that should reflect the local context in which adaptation takes place (DAC, 2011).
10.2 MRVE on implementing Adaptation Plan
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Several climate change actions or projects are currently underway in the CoT. The adaptation plan highlights some of these projects and suggests other actions that the CoT could undertake in response to 8 priority risk factors identified in the risk prioritisation section. For each of these projects, the City would need to undertake an assessment of the extent to which the inputs (e.g. financial and human resources), activities (e.g. workshops and training) and outputs (trained staff and implemented projects) are progressing toward achieving the desired results. The proposed steps of the MRVE of implementation of the adaptation projects within CoT adaptation plan are shown below in .Specifically, the scope of the MRVE system has been defined in this study as a means to perform annual reviews in order to track the implementation of measures within the Adaptation Plan (See section on Adaptation Plan) and it will provide a basis for the City to report its adaptation efforts to the Carbonn Cities Climate Registry. Responsibility for the MRVE system needs to reside within the department implementing the adaptation plan that will have the responsibility of co-ordinating stakeholder involvement in the MRVE. This department will further be responsible for on-going data collection so as to monitor and evaluate progress in the achievement of key milestones and outputs of the adaptation measures/actions implemented. The results obtained need to be independently verified before it is reported to stakeholders and the Carbonn registry.
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Figure 32. Procedure for the MRVE for the implementation of the CoT Adaptation plan (adapted from DWAF, 2005).
Whilst displays this process in a step-wise process, it is in reality likely to require many iterations between steps as stakeholder inputs are received and integrated to support delivery of the projects objectives. Remedial actions which are implemented at various milestones in the project will also contribute towards informing best-practice in subsequent, related adaptation projects.
Table 19 shows some of the criteria and type of assessment that could be used in monitoring and evaluating the implementation of an adaptation plan. This information can be used to evaluate the progress made by adaptation projects in their life cycle and at specific milestones. The evaluation according to Grafakos and Kaczmarski (2013) consists of the following five criteria:
Relevance (relevance to climate change adaptation/resilience objectives) Implementation (compliance related to delivery of outcomes within planned timeframes) Effectiveness (achievement of projects objectives/targets met within planned timeframe) Efficiency (costs associated with project) Equity (beneficiaries associated with project)
The assessment caters for different levels of data intensity and provides options for qualitative assessments (low data intensity) and quantitative assessments (high data intensity). A score from 0 to 1 is allocated to each evaluation criterion (Table 19) and provides a means to identify which aspects of the project are under-performing and require remedial action. A maximum total score of five points can be allocated to each project and can provide an overall performance rating of the project relative to other adaptation projects within the CoT’s adaptation plan.
An example of how to allocate a score to an evaluation criterion of implementation can be illustrated using a project activity of ‘clearing of alien invasive species’ with the project rationale of maintaining and restoring buffer of natural vegetation in riparian areas. If the expected project output was to clear 200 ha of land by 2016, the associated indicator is ‘the area of land cleared of alien invasive species (ha)’. If 180 ha of land was cleared (of the target of 200 ha) within the planned timeframe, then the level of implementation was high and a score of 0.9 could be allocated since 90% of the target was met (project outputs delivered by more than 75% (0.75-1 point) (Grafakos and Kaczmarski, 2013).
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Table 19: Proposed MRVE guideline for the CoT(Adapted from: Grafakos and Kaczmarski, 2013).
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Critera Question Assessment Type of Assessement Highest Possible
Score Score
Not relevant: the adaptation measure objectives are not related to climate change adaptation (0 point)
Indirectly relevant: the adaptation measure objectives are indirectly related to climate change adaptation (0.5 points)
Directly relevant: the adaptation measure objectives are directly related to climate change adaptation (1 point)
Not delivered: the adaptation measure's outputs have not been delivered (0 point)
Partly delivered: the adaptation measure's outputs have been partly delivered (0.5 point)
Delivered: the adaptation measure's outputs have been delivered (1 point)
Low level of implementation: the adaptation measure's outputs have been delivered by up to 25% (0 – 0.25 point)
Moderate level of implementation: the adaptation measure's outputs have been delivered by more than 25% and up to 75% (0.25 – 0.75 point)
High level of implementation: the adaptation measure's outputs have been delivered by more than 75% (0.75 - 1 point)
Not achieved: the adaptation measure's objectives have not been achieved (0 point)
Partly achieved: the adaptation measure's objectives have been partly achieved (0.5 point)
Achieved: the adaptation measure's objectives have been achieved (1 point)
Low effectiveness: the adaptation measure's objectives achieved by up to 25% (0 – 0.25 point)
Moderate effectiveness: the adaptation measure's objectives achieved by more than 25% and up to 75% (0.25 – 0.75 point)
High effectiveness: the adaptation measure's objectives achieved by more than 75% (0.75 - 1 point)
Low effectiveness: the adaptation measure has reduced value at risk by up to 25% (0 – 0.25 point)
Moderate effectiveness: the adaptation measure has reduced value at risk by more than 25% and up to 75% (0.25 – 0.75 point)
High effectiveness: the project has reduced value at risk by more than 75% (0.75 - 1 point)
Negative budget variances: the actual adaptation measure cost is higher than the budgeted cost (0 point)
Positive budget variances: the actual adaptation measure cost is equal to or lower than the baseline budgeted cost (1 point)
Negative comparison: the actual adaptation measure cost is higher than the cost of adaptation measure (0 point
Positive comparison: the actual adaptation measure cost is equal to or lower than the cost of similar adaptation measures (1 point)
Low level of equity: the proportion of adaptation measure beneficiaries is up to 25% of the total affected population (0 – 0.25 point)
Medium level of equity: the proportion of adaptation measure beneficiaries is more than 25% and up to 75% of the total affected population ( 0.25 – 0.75 point)
High level of equity: the proportion of adaptation measure beneficiaries is more than 75% of the total affected population (0.75 – 1 point)
Total 5
1
To what extent was the adaptation measure objectives relevant to climate change adaptation?
Qualitative Relevance
1
1
Option 2: Quantitative assessment for measures with signficant data requirements
To what extent was the intended adaptation measure outcomes delivered within the planned time frame?
Implementation
Option 1: Qualitative assessment for measures with minor data requirements
Option 2: Quantitative assessment for measures with signficant data requirements
Option 3: Quantitative assessment and monetization for measures with significant data requirements
To what extent were the adaptation measure's objectives achieved within the planned time frame?
Effectiveness
Option 1: Qualitative assessment for measures with minor data requirements
To what extent was the climate change adaptation measure intervention efficient?
1Efficiency
Quantitative assessment 1To what extent did the project benefit the target local population?
Equity
Option 1 : Comparison against internal budget for adaptation measures with minor data requirements
Option 2: Comparison against "typical" budgets of similar adaptation measures for identified measures with moderate data requirements
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All projects within the adaptation plan can be assessed using the same criteria and performance indicators as presented above in the framework, so as to ensure transparency and uniformity in the assessments. Within each project, the types of information that are used will be project specific for each of the criterion. Table 20 below provides a set of adaptation actions discussed in the previous chapter of this document for the risk factors identified and selected examples of indicators to illustrate which of the five evaluation criteria these indicators could potentially inform in the MRVE guidelines provided in Table 19. It is important to note, however, that the appropriate selection of indicators to use in the assessment of adaptation projects should consider the project scale, data availability and local context.
Table 20: Selected examples of indicators to inform the scoring of actions in the proposed framework at relevant milestones throughout the duration of the project.
Risk Factor Measures IndicatorEvaluation criterion assessed in MRVE
framework
Increased energy demand Insulating low cost homes so that they are cooler in summer and warmer in winter
Is the insulation of homes directly/indirectly related to adaptation to heat risk in the CoT?
Relevance
Number of homes retrofitted with insulating materials
Implementation
Energy consumption per household Effectiveness
Cost of insulating homes relative to the budget allocated for this programme
Efficiency
The number and proportion of people that benefitted from having better insulated homes
Equity
Damage to infrastructure (storm water systems, roads, bridges)
Use information from vulnerability assessments to identify vulnerable areas
Is the identification of vulnerable infrastructure directly/indirectly related to adaptation in the CoT?
Relevance
Construction of flood protection schemes for infrastructure in vulnerable areas
Implementation
Reduction in economic losses due to damage of infrastructure as result of floods
Effectiveness
Percentage of allocated funds spent on upgrading or/protecting critical infrastructure relative to the budget allocated
Efficiency
The number and proportion of people identified in vulnerable areas
Equity
Flooding and damage to human settlements and
Provision of durable low cost houses to residents
Does durable low-cost housing support adaptation in the CoT?
Relevance
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Risk Factor Measures IndicatorEvaluation criterion assessed in MRVE
framework
private property (currently in progress within the CoT)
Progress with the acquisition and development of durable low cost houses
Implementation
The number of durable low-cost houses provided
Effectiveness
The cost of the provision of the houses relative to the proposed budget
Efficiency
The number and proportion of the population that have been provided with these homes
Equity
Increase in sinkholes Create a dolomite risk management database
Is the establishment of a database directly or indirectly related to the adaption response to increased sinkholes?
Relevance
Percentage completion of the dolomite risk management database
Implementation
Area (ha) of CoT that has been assessed and managed for the sinkholes risk due to dolomite bedrock
Effectiveness
The actual costs to create and establish the database relative to the budget available
Efficiency
The population of CoT that are within areas that are under management of the risk database
Equity
Water insecurity Build early warning system to inform municipality of impending floods and droughts e.g. increasing storage capacity in drier periods
Is the building of an early warning system indirectly or directly related to the threat of water-related natural disasters in the CoT?
Relevance
Percentage of the development of the early warning system completed
Implementation
Number of warnings issued by the early warning system of impending water related natural disasters in the CoT
Effectiveness
The actual cost to build the system relative to the budget available
Efficiency
The proportion of the population in the CoT that received early warnings of
Equity
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Risk Factor Measures IndicatorEvaluation criterion assessed in MRVE
framework
impending water related natural disasters in CoT
Loss of ecosystem goods and services
Increasing nature-related environmental education, information, awareness and capacity building (which include internships with students from Tshwane University of Technology and the “Groen sebenza” program)
Is the course content of relevance to supporting climate change adaptation?
Relevance
Number of information dissemination outlets utilised, by type of outlet (e.g. radio, newspaper, website)
Implementation
Training quality as perceived by participants of program
Effectiveness
Cost of running the programme as a percentage of projected costs
Efficiency
Number of students registered in program
Equity
Decreased productivity of agro-ecosystems affecting food security
Implementation of sustainable and conservation agriculture projects that promote minimum tillage and organic farming
Is the project relevant to improve food security in agro-ecosystems?
Relevance
Number of workshops held to train community members on sustainable agriculture techniques
Implementation
Number of projects implemented within the planned timeframe
Effectiveness
Cost of running the programme as a percentage of projected costs
Efficiency
Percentage of men and women applying agricultural practices learned in programme-sponsored workshops
Equity
Increases in diseases affecting human and animal health
Upgrade health facilities to ensure that they can provide emergency services when most needed
Is the project relevant to reducing adverse health risk to animals and humans as a climate change response strategy?
Relevance
The number of health facilities upgraded within each type of health facility (hospital, ambulance services, and clinics)
Implementation
The number patients treated in an emergency through the use of these upgraded facilities
Effectiveness
Cost of running the programme as a percentage of projected costs
Efficiency
The proportion of the population in the CoT with access to health facilities which are equipped to cope with emergencies
Equity
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10.3 Conclusion
Monitoring and evaluation of climate change adaptation has recently gained momentum in some development projects which include work by the Deutsche Gesellschaftfür Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ). MRVE for the CoT is therefore a useful internal management tool that can be used to provide information on the gap between expectation and result (increased resilience in CoT) which should be an improvement from what was the status quo (climate change vulnerable CoT). There is need to build capacity within the city so that officials can collect, verify, collate and write reports that feedback into the adaptation plan. Specifics on how the city can report on the progress being made can be decided with further stakeholder engagement. This can include quarterly reporting on departmental performance on adaptation projects and annual reporting on capacity building initiatives to improve performance of local government officials. MRVE can also contribute towards international assessments and compilation of reports on climate change responses and inform South Africa’s participation in climate change negotiations under the UNFCCC. MRVE needs to be constantly updated with feedback from stakeholders as the city gets to understand how adaptation actions can become more effective.
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