city of the future: the view from 2032

CITY OF THE FUTUREThe View from 2032

Guy Dauncey, Living Future SymposiumVictoria, November 2013

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com


We’ve come a long way from this….


To this …


but…


Smithore Dreamstime.com

We’ve also come to this…


If everyone lived the way we do,

we'd need another two Earths


As we burn the fossil fuels…


CO2 CO2CO2

CO2

CO2 CO2

100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second


Monday


Monday

OMG!

Daddy, you’re going to die!!!!


2 metres

10 metres

18 metres

25 metres

The last time the global temperature was 3°C warmer, the sea-level was 25 metres higher.


Global CO2 in 1750 (biogenic)


CO2 emissions since1750 (anthropogenic)


Maximum extra CO2 to stay below 2°C of warming


Potential CO2 in declared fossil fuel reserves


All of this must remain in the ground


"Dreams are extremely important. You can't do it unless you can imagine it.”

- George Lucas


"Create your future from your future, not your past.” - Werner Erhard


"Pain pushes until vision pulls." - Michael Beckwith


So what is our vision of a beautiful, desirable future?


Ten Themes

1: The Return of Nature

Habitat for Urban Wildlife Ifat Finkelman Ofer Bilik Architects, Israel


Animal Wall, Cardiff Bay, Wales


London Fieldworks Duncan Terrace GardensIslington, London


Back to Nature


Brooklyn Public School 216 Arturo Toscanini, New York

Turning THIS…


into THIS.


Hundertwasserhaus, Vienna


Musee du Quai Branly, ParisPatrick Blanc, Le Mur Vegetal


Madrid’s vertical garden is made up of

more than 15,000 plants, from 250

different species.

Patrick Blanc

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Athenaeum Hotel, London Patrick Blanc


ACROS building, Fukuoka, Japan35,000 plants, 76 species


Flower Tower, Paris, 2004 www.edouardfrancois.com


United Bank of SwitzerlandBasel


Singapore,Editt Tower

(proposed)


Singapore,Editt Tower


The Gherkin, London


Semiahmoo Transit StationSurrey, BC, Canada

Before…


www.greenovergrey.com

After…


Vincent Callebaut


Vincent Callebaut: Asian Cairns, Sustainable Megaliths for Rural Urbanity, Shenzhen, China, 2013

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

Is this your dream home of the future?Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com


Or this?



Ten Themes

2: Green, Sustainable Energy


By 2016, every new home in Britain must be zero-carbon.

www.zerocarbonhub.org


By 2020, every new home in California must be zero net energy - emit no carbon and give power back to the grid.

Zero Net Energy Housing

The Best Green Building Policies

1. Strong Climate Action legislation




2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging, energy-labeled





1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all permitted improvement projects above $20,000






2. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and report energy use annually (San Francisco)







3. On-Bill + PACE Financing for energy upgrades








4. Sustainability Checklists for Developers








4. Sustainability Checklists for Developers

5. Green building grants, education and technical servicesGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com


www.architecture2030.org


Empire State Building

SustainabilityRetrofit

38% reduced energy use


Winter: -10oC outside, no heat needed insideSummer: 35oC outside, only 26oC inside

The Passive House


Victoria, BC www.bernhardtpassive.com


Construction costs: 4.3% more per square foot


Monthly net energy savings more than the increased mortgage


LED Lighting


LED Chandeliers


63 kW solar PV, 30 kW Biomass boiler40 kW air source heat pump2 x 17 kW Ground source heat pumpsEnergy Centre roof 20 m2 solar thermal panels

Greenwatt Way, Slough, UK


BedZEDSutton, London, UK

Super-efficient, smart metered

CHP power and hot water from local tree wastes

Space heat: 88% lessHot water: 57% lessElectricity: 25% less


Beddington Zero Energy Housing (BedZED), Sutton, London, UK

Energy Centre


Renewable Energy Heat Pumps

Solar-SourceMoisture-SourceGround-SourceWater-SourceSewer-Source

Ice-Source


Solar (air source) Heat Pump


Ductless Mini-Split Solar Heat Pump


The Octopus Ice-Stickwww.octopus.tm

Solar Air Moisture Heat Pump


50-75% reduced heating costsAir moisture heat pump

50 years life spanOperates down to -25oC


Since 1991, in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, Holland, Italy, Romania, Ireland.


CruxifixIce-Stick

Heat Pump


Ground-Source Solar Heat


Geothermal Radial Drilling, Austriahttp://geothermic.tracto-technik.com


Water-Source Solar Heat


Ice-Source Heat

Richmond Olympic Skating Oval


Solar Hot Water

on a restaurant in Sweden

Photo by Hamilton Hazlehurst/Vulcan


Rizhao, China


www.solarbc.caA project of the BCSEA


Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta.

Solar Thermal District Heat


800 solar hot water

panels on the garages

90% of residential space heating needs met by solar thermal energy (40-50o C)

Reduction - 5 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions

per home per year.


The Energy Centre

Solar Thermal Heating 12 months a year

Community solar heat panels

Solar hot waterpanels



Solar Thermal Housing, Rostock, Germany

Sor

ce:

Sol

vis


In Sweden, Stockholm sends heat from treated sewage effluent to 80,000 apartments


Pre-insulated pipe used to heat most homes and commercial buildings in Scandinavia.

Insulation allows delivery of hot water at 200o C up to 24 km, with only a few degrees loss of heat.

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Rolf Disch Solar Architecture

Solar PV

Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Taiwan Solar Stadium, 2013


Data from Stephen O'Rourke, senior analyst for semiconductor equipment and materials, Deutsche Bank Securities, via www.energyandcapital.com, February 2008

100,000GW in 2012

Solar PV 7000% increase since 2000


3 kW PV System$15,000 in Victoria

$12,000 if bulk 30 houses$9,000 at IKEA, UK

3,300 kWh year


Solar Economics in Victoria, BC(No Feed-in Tariff)

3 kW, 3% financing, 3% pa BC Hydro inflation

2013 2020Cost per kW $5,000 $3,000Cost of 3 kW system $15,000 $9,000$25 yr 3% mortgage $21,300 $12,780

kWh per year 3,300 kWh 3,300 kWh 25 years + 3% pa $12,009 $14,768

Profit (Loss) (-$9,291) $1,988


Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c

om

This tiny slither of time is the Age of Fossil Fuels

5,000,000 years past

5,000,000 years future

The Human Journey

If we act as we should, we will make the 200 Carbon Years the launch ramp for a billion Solar Years

Firewood Solar500,000 years




Fossil Solar200 years




Fossil Solar200 years

Renewable Solar1.75 billion years



Ten Themes

3: Sustainable Watersheds


Restoring urban creeks and streams


Still Creek, Vancouver. Chum Salmon restored after 80 years


Home Water Conservation:Dual Flush Toilets


Composting Toilets


Rainwater Storage


Bioswale to capture rainwaterSEA Street, Seattle


SEA Street, Seattle


Water Conservation Credits in 2032

1. Builder seeks building permit for new house

2. Water conserving actions in existing houses earn conservation credits

3. Water conserving companies retrofit existing houses, collect credits.

4. Builder buys credits to qualify for building permit

5. Net increase in water-use = ZERO


Ten Themes

4: Reclaimed Streets

Re-imagine Re-designRe-claim



‘What a Thrill’ Street, San Antonio, Texas


In 2012, San Antonio’s City Center Development Office contracted Team Better Block of Dallas with the Project for Public Spaces in New York City to develop a site plan that narrowed a segment of West Commerce Street from 4 lanes to 3 to create a more inviting pedestrian experience.

Just for one day…


Team Better Block

San Antonio, Texas

www.betterblock.org

Proyecto Urbano Integral, Medellin, ColombiaGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com


Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea

Before and After


Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea


The HighlineConverted Railway,

New York


Proposed Drexel City Campus, New York,with the Highline running through it


Brooklyn Bridge Remix/Redux Terreform and Michael Sorkin Studio


London: a Garden Bridge across the ThamesThomas Heatherwick


Rua Gonçalo de Carvalho, Porto Allegro, Brazil


Berge de Seine, Paris

Place de la Republique, Paris, 1850s

Place de la Republique, 2006

stephanekirkland.com

Place de la Republique, 2013


Ten Themes

5: Thriving Neighborhoods



Portland, Oregon www.CityRepair.org

EarthSong Eco-Neigbourhood, Auckland, New ZealandGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com


Pioneer Valley Cohousing, Massachusetts

Jamestown Mall, St. Louis County, MissouriGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Possible Future: Jamestown Mall, Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com


Namba ParksOsaka, Japan


Hundertwasser's Waldspirale, Darmstadt, Germany


Ten Themes

6: Healthy Urban Organic Food


www.talkgreentous.ca


Moss Street Market, Victoria

Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Fulham Palace Allotment Gardens, London


Valencia, Spain


Ten Themes

7: Sustainable Transportationwithout Fossil Fuels

Walking

Graben Street, Vienna

Times Square, New York

Toronto Walking School Bus

Neighbourhood Walkability Auditwww.walklive.org

Amsterdam

Cycling

Amsterdam

Vancouver


Bike Path in Cambridge, UK

Starpath is a sprayable coating of light-absorbing particles that harvests UV rays from the sun during

the day and lights up like a starry sky at night.

www.pro-teqsurfacing.com

City Bike Sharing, Washington DC


Electric Bicycles

School at Assen, Holland

Transit

In Stockholm, 200 buses run on biogas from sewage treatment (Stephen Salter)

Umea, SwedenFast-Charging Electric Bus, 18 hours/day

1 – 2 euros for 10-20 kWh electricity to go 10 km

www.opbrid.com

OLEVOn-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Japan’s Future Electric Bus

Real-time electronic timetable

Bus shelter in Taiwan

LRT in Portland, Oregon

LRT in Mulhouse, France

Proyecto Urbano Integral,

Medellin, Colombia


Real-time Ride-sharing www.car.ma

See

Victoria Carshare Coop650 members share 23 vehicles

www.victoriacarshare.ca

Car Sharing

Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing

Vehicles owners earnup to $300 a month


Chevy Volt2,500 km on one tank of gas

Volkswagen XL1 (1-litre) 2012 Diesel plug-in hybrid 75 km battery range

0.9 litres/100 km 312 mpg

Renault Twizy EV

2 seats, 100 km range, 3.5 hours recharge

$9,700 + $60/month battery lease


Smart Electric – 135 km range

Tesla EV Model-X

7 seats350 kilometers range


Honda solar electric car charging

1.5 kW solar PV = 1,500 kWh a year

= 10,000 km

PV for EV

1.5 kW PV = $7,50025 year PV loan 3.5% = $37/month

Gas @ $1.30 litre = $80/month

PV for EV


Electric car fast charging

Cargohopper3 tonnes max60 km range20 kph top speedUrban deliveriesHolland

www.cargohopper.com


EVs + Bikes = less urban noise


No fossil fuel pollution = clear skies


Ten Themes

8: A Strong Green Local Economy

11

22

33

44

55

66

77

88

Benefit Corporations

VillageBusinessNetworks

Coop Network

Green BusinessCertification

Values-Based Banking

Community Welfare Basic Income

Affordable HousingInitiatives

The Community

Economyin 2032

CommunityEconomicEducation


1 Benefit Corporations


2Green Business

Certification


3 Village BusinessNetworks


4 CooperativesNetwork


5Values-Based

BankingInterest-free bankingDebt CirclesCommunity currenciesMicrofinanceLocal business lendingCredit UnionsBank of BC


6Community Welfare

andBasic Income


7Affordable

HousingInitiatives


7Affordable

HousingInitiatives

LoftCube


7Affordable

HousingInitiatives


8CommunityEconomic Education


Ten Themes

9: A Thriving Artistic Culture

THE ELECTRONIC SIDEWALK YOUR POEM HERE

wake up your senses walk with a dog in the rain then roll on the rug Kim Pearson

A violin plays as the common space becomes

a place of beauty. Jenny Gerbasi


Ten Themes

10: A Strong ParticipatoryDemocracy

Community engagement


Engaging Young People

www.leadingchangenetwork.com


Electronic ballotsVoting aged reduced to 16

Transferable Voting for City Hall$100 tax credit for voting (revenue neutral)


Design the Future Community Meetings


The Happy, Resilient City

More walking, biking, bus, carsharing

Lower transport costs

More urban food gardens Cheaper and healthier eating

Innovative affordable housing Lower housing costs

Stronger neighbourhoods More friends, more real community

More urban greenery More inner space, and peace

Stronger community economy More financial security

Green, energy-efficient homes Lower energy costs

No more fossil fuels Clean air, clear sky, quiet city

More civic engagement Healthier political realm

Basic Income Less poverty, fear and homelessness

More arts, music and neighbourhood celebration

More friends, more happiness, more love


BUT…


To reduce the risk of this …


We must do this …


A Green, Sustainable Future is not an Option

It is an Absolute Necessity

in which we must all become engaged


Guy Dauncey

www.earthfuture.com

city of the future: the view from 2032

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