cis570 ws3 project planning business systems joseph lewis aguirre

CIS570WS3 Project Planning Business Systems

Joseph Lewis Aguirre

Project Planning - MGMTProject Planning - MGMT

Manager’s Role in Project Planning

•Project Champion

•Project Planning

Project Planning - PlanProject Planning - Plan

Components of Business Project Plan

•Feasibility Study

•Business Requirements Definition

•Detailed Requirements Definition

•Solution Design

•Systems Development and Implementation

Project Planning- SchedulingProject Planning- Scheduling

Project Scheduling

•Constraints

•Phased Milestones

•Resources

•Forward/Backwards Scheduling

Project Planning- Cost Project Planning- Cost

Cost Estimation

• HW/SW

•In House/Outsource

•Training/Maintenance

•Cost Estimation Models

Project Planning- Alternatives Project Planning- Alternatives

Feasibility of technology alternatives

• Internet

•Intranet

•Extranet

CIS570

Project ManagementProject Management Project ManagementProject Management


• Moore’s law predicts the doubling of computing power every 18–24 months

• Gilder’s law predicts the doubling of communications power every six months

Sample LawsSample Laws

• Transistor density doubles every 18 months 60% increase per year– Chip density transistors/die – Micro processor speeds

• Exponential growth:– The past does not matter– 10x here, 10x there … means REAL change

• PC costs decline faster than any other platform– Volume and learning curves– PCs are the building bricks of all future systems

128KB128KB

128MB128MB

200020008KB8KB

1MB1MB

8MB8MB

1GB1GB

19701970 19801980 19901990

1M1M 16M16Mbits: 1Kbits: 1K 4K4K 16K16K 64K64K 256K256K 4M4M 64M64M 256M256M

1 chip memory size1 chip memory size ( 2 MB to 32 MB)( 2 MB to 32 MB)

Moore’s LawsMoore’s Laws

• Amdahl’s law: one instruction per second requires one byte of memory and one bit per second of I/O

• Processor speed has evolved at 60%• Storage evolves at 60%• Wide Area Network speed evolves at 60%• Local Area Network speed evolved 26-60% • Grove’s Law: Plain Old Telephone Service

(POTS) thwarts speed, evolving at 14%!

Computer Components must evolve at the same time

Computer Components must evolve at the same time

• Demand: doubles as price declines by 20%

• Learning curves: 10-15% cost decline with 2X units

• Bill’s Law for the economics of PC software

• Nathan’s Laws of Software -- the virtuous circle

• Metcalfe’s Law of the “value of a network”

Economics based lawsEconomics based laws

• How many connections can it make?– 1 user: no utility

– 100,000 users: a few contacts

– 1 million users: many on Net

– 1 billion users: everyone on Net

• That is why the Internet is so “hot”– Exponential benefit

Metcalf’s Law of Network UtilityMetcalf’s Law of Network Utility

• Bill Joy’s law (Sun): don’t write software for <100,000 platforms @$10 million engineering expense, $1,000 price

• Bill Gate’s law:don’t write software for <1,000,000 platforms @$10M engineering expense, $100 price

• Examples: –UNIX versus Windows NT: $3,500 versus $500

–Oracle versus SQL-Server: $100,000 versus $6,000

PricePriceFixed_costFixed_cost

Marginal _costMarginal _cost==UnitsUnits

++

Software Economics – Bills’ LawsSoftware Economics – Bills’ Laws

Inno

vatio

n

Volum

e

Competition

Standards

Utility/value

The Virtuous Economic Cycle driving the Compute Element

The Virtuous Economic Cycle driving the Compute Element

1. Software is a gas. It expands to fill the container it is in

2. Software grows until it becomes limited by Moore’s Law

3. Software growth makes Moore’s Law possible

4. Software is only limited by human ambition and expectation

…GB: and our ability to cyberize I.e. encode

Nathan’s Laws of SoftwareNathan’s Laws of Software

Region/Region/IntranetIntranet

CampusCampusHome…Home… buildingsbuildings

BodyBody

WorldWorld

ContinentContinent

Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms

Cars… Cars… phys. nets phys. nets

Everything Cyberizable in CyberspaceEverything Cyberizable in Cyberspace

Net

wo

rkIn

terf

ace

Pla

tfo

rm

“The Computer”Mainframe

tube, core, drum, tape, batch O/S

direct > batch

Mini & Timesharing

SSI-MSI, disk, timeshare

O/S

terminals via commands

POTS

PC/WS

micro, floppy, disk, bit-map

display, mouse, dist’d O/S

WIMP

LAN

Web browser,telecomputer, tv computer

PC, scalable servers,

Web, HTML

Internet

EnablersEnablers

Capac

. (sv

c

& re

spon

se)

Applic

atio

n

inno

vatio

n

UserdemandInternet

(IP)ubiquityExcess capac.

-->>BW

Virtuous Cycle Driving BandwidthVirtuous Cycle Driving Bandwidth

BIG THREE MODELSBIG THREE MODELS

SCOPE

Conte

xt M

odel

Event Model

Information Model

Designview

Component view

Use caseview

Processview

Deployment view

End user - Functionality - Vocabulary

Programmers - Software management

Analysts/Testers - Behavior

System integrators - Performance - Scalability - Throughput

System engineering - System topology - Delivery and installation - Communication

Rational Rose ModelRational Rose Model

USE CASE DIAGRAMSUSE CASE DIAGRAMSDocuments user-system interactions required to perform tasks

Process CusatomerOrders

FinanceMarketing

Salesperson

Order Entry Clerk Warehouse

Shipping

Invoicing Clerk

USE CASE DIAGRAMSUSE CASE DIAGRAMS

FinanceMarketing

Salesperson

Order Entry ClerkWarehouse

Shipping

Invoicing Clerk

DetermineCredit Limits

DetermineOrder Pricing

ProduceInvoices

DefinePrices

Enter ShipDate and Qty

Print Ordersfor WarehouseEnter

Order

Enter PickDate and Qty

Business Process ModelingBusiness Process ModelingFor each icon ask:mission, tasks, problems, decisions, metrics, who else needs to be informed?

Customer

Invoicing Clerk

Warehouse

Order Entry ClerkSalesperson

Shipping

A/R Clerk

Sales Order ProcessingSales Order Processing

Context Model

What is ContextWhat is Context

• Context influences how we perceive information.

• Context enables us to manage the vast amount

of information that surrounds us.

• Context guides us through the information

surrounding us.

• Context allows to discriminate what is important

and what is not.

• Context helps us to adapt to our surroundings.

Context ModelContext Model

I'm going to have toI'm going to really have to, yes, manipulate onI'll leave B and C on full tiltnow I'm going to have to manipulate one of theseif I want to cut downif I'm going to go over it4 minutes and I've used 6I've got A oxidising

Not much meaning without context?


Cognitive Demand

Context Size

Small Large

High

Low Within ContextBetween Context

Total Cognitive Demand

Possible relationship between context size and cognitive demand

TRUISMSTRUISMS

It is not the plan that matters, It’s the planning. -General Dwight D. Eisenhower

Graphical Diagrams do not constitute a specification….nothing replaces clear, concise text. - David A. Ruble

At a recent study, I commented at one point in our deliberations that we had spent more time on wordsmithing than we had on considering the substance of our report. -- Robert W. Lucky, VP for Applied Research at Telecordia. NJ

It seems to me language by its very nature is imprecise. I think of each word as inhabiting a fuzzy ball of uncertain semantic meaning…. – Robert W. Lucky


ProcessingProcessing

ControlControl

OutputOutputInputInput

System

External AgentExternal Agent

External AgentExternal Agent

Stimulus Response

• Understand the flows of data around the system

• Define processes that transform or manipulate data

• Identify the sources and recipients of data outside the system

• Show where data is held in the system

• Aid communication between user and analyst

• Form the basis of function definition and event identification

Data Flow Modeling Data Flow Modeling

Typically three versions of the DFM are produced:

• Current physical DFM

• Logical DFM

• Required system DFM


The data flow model consists of:

• Data flow diagrams (DFD)

• Elementary process descriptions (EPD)

• External entity descriptions

• I/O descriptions


DATA FLOW DIAGRAMSDATA FLOW DIAGRAMS

Given well specified processes and the information required to support those process, Data Flow Diagrams (DFD) are use to represent the data acquisition, transformation, storage and delivery process.

External Entities: People or systems

Data Flows: Data content acquired from an external entity.

Processes: Transform data according to business rules – strictly computer implemented processes

Business rules and processing logic must be documented for each process.

Context DiagramContext Diagram

A Representation of the Process Model

DFD – CONTEXT DIAGRAMDFD – CONTEXT DIAGRAM

Data source/sink, Data source/sink, external entityexternal entity

Data/Process – Data/Process – strong action verb, strong action verb, followed by objectfollowed by object

Data StoreData Store

DFD NotationDFD Notation

Law of transformation – a process transforms the data in some way

Law of conservation – a process’ output must be derivable from its input, and should be given enough information to do its job

Process: Strong action verb followed by object to which action applies - VO

External agent – named using noun

CONTEXT DIAGRAM - PAYROLL CONTEXT DIAGRAM - PAYROLL

Employee

PayrollManager

Process Payroll.Timecards

Pay Checks

W2 Forms

Payroll Reports

Tax Tables andParameters

Employee FixedData

Customer Accounts

Invoice

OrderInvoiceProcess

Order

Process

Entity

Data Flow

Outputs expressed in computer Outputs expressed in computer programming languageprogramming language

Data Flow DiagramData Flow Diagram

Process Modeling Process Modeling

Employee

PayrollManager

Process Payroll.*Timecards

Pay Checks

W2 Forms

Payroll Reports

Tax Tables andParameters

Employee FixedData

IF YtdGrossPay + CurrentGrossPay <= MaxFICAWagesIF YtdGrossPay + CurrentGrossPay <= MaxFICAWages

THENTHEN

ficaTax = CurrentGrossPay * FICATaxRateficaTax = CurrentGrossPay * FICATaxRate

ELSEELSE

IF YtdGrossPay <= MaxFICAWagesIF YtdGrossPay <= MaxFICAWages

THENTHEN

ficaTax = (MaxFICAWages - YtdGrossPay) * ficaTax = (MaxFICAWages - YtdGrossPay) * FICATaxRateFICATaxRate

ELSEELSE

ficaTax = 0ficaTax = 0

END IFEND IF

END IFEND IF

A Process used to calculate FICA withholding taxes processing logic:A Process used to calculate FICA withholding taxes processing logic:

• Catalog describing the information and data used in the system

• Need entries for – Processes (name, number, performed by, trigguer, volume, logic)

– Data Flows (name, description, frequency, structure)

– Data Stores (name, description, key elements, sequence, media, volume, organization, structure)

DATA DICTIONARYDATA DICTIONARY

DATA DICTIONARY – DATA STOREDATA DICTIONARY – DATA STORE

Data Dictionary Sample Entry: Data Store

File or Database Name: Accounting

Aliases: Project Accounting

Brief Description : Used to track projects and staffing levels

Composition: Project Nuber + Project Description + Staff Count + Employee Name + Release Date

Organization : Sequential by Project Number

NOTES :

Event Model

Event Model BenefitsEvent Model Benefits

Compared to hierarchical process model used to document requirements for monolithic process-driven programs, event model is more flexible

Event ModelEvent Model

ProcessingProcessing

ControlControl

Environment

System

Components, Relationships, Boundaries, Interfaces, Constraints

Stimulus Response

EventEvent EffectEffect

Event Model DeliverablesEvent Model Deliverables

Event List

Event Dictionary

Event Matrices

Event ListsEvent Lists

Customer returns merchandise

Customer requests refund

Customer places order

Engineering requests bug list

S-V-O

EVENT DICTIONARY – FICA EVENT DICTIONARY – FICA

Event ID: 099

Event Name: Calculate FICA Withholding Taxes

Description : Simple tax withholding calculation using FICA Tax Rates

Stimulus: Employee ID, Pay Period, Current gross pay and Year to Date Gross Pay

Alias: None

EVENT DICTIONARY - FICA (cont)EVENT DICTIONARY - FICA (cont)

Activity : Create an instance of FICA Withholding using employee ID, and Pay period.

IF YtdGrossPay + CurrentGrossPay <= MaxFICAWagesIF YtdGrossPay + CurrentGrossPay <= MaxFICAWagesTHENTHEN

ficaTax = CurrentGrossPay * FICATaxRateficaTax = CurrentGrossPay * FICATaxRate

ELSEELSEIF YtdGrossPay <= MaxFICAWagesIF YtdGrossPay <= MaxFICAWages

THENTHENficaTax = (MaxFICAWages - YtdGrossPay) * FICATaxRateficaTax = (MaxFICAWages - YtdGrossPay) * FICATaxRate

ELSEELSEficaTax = 0ficaTax = 0

END IFEND IF

END IF END IF Statistics?

EVENT DICTIONARY- FICA (cont)EVENT DICTIONARY- FICA (cont)

Response : Withholding tax

Effect : Can be printed and given to employee

EVENT DICTIONARY EVENT DICTIONARY

Event ID: 099

Event Name: Warehouse ships customer order

Description : When warehouse ships product, the trucking company is identified and quantity shipped for each item is updated on the customer order. If the total quantity shipped equals total quantity ordered, then the order item is closed out. If all items of the order have been filled, then the order is closed out. A BOL is produced by the system to accompany the shipment

Stimulus: Employee ID, Pay Period

Alias: None

Event Model – Event ListEvent Model – Event List

Customer Places Order

Customer Cancels Order

Warehouse ships order

Accounting Invoices Order

Customer Pays Invoice

Event Entity MatrixEvent Entity Matrix

Customer Places Order

Credit Approves Order

Warehouse ships order

Accounting Invoices Order

Marketing Sends Literature

Customer

OrderOrder I

tem

Plant O

rder

CRU

U

R

R

R

C

UR

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

C NA

NA

RU

R

NA

Cross CheckCross Check

•Cross Check Event Model with Information Model for missing entities, attributes, relationships

•If you have it, use it, else why have it

•Exceptions, such as non-events?

Event Organization – Event ChainEvent Organization – Event ChainSort by Time – event chain

1. Customer Places order

2. Sales manager approves

3. Production schedules order

4. Factory produces order

5. Factory ships order

6. Time to issue statement

7. Customer pays balance

Syntax, exception management?

Event Organization – Event SubjectEvent Organization – Event SubjectSort By Subject:

• Customer places order

• Customer pays deposit on order

• Customer cancels order

• Customer picks up order

• Customer does not pick up order

• Customer pays balanced due

• Customer does not pay balance


Customer Events Factory Events

•Factory schedules order

•Factory produces order

•Factory ships order

•Factory closes shop

Event Organization – Event ObjectEvent Organization – Event ObjectSort by Object:

• Customer places order

• Sales Manager approves order

• Customer cancels order

• Customer picks up order

• Customer does not pick up order

• Production schedules order

• Warehouse fills order


Order Events Price List Events

•Marketing established PL

•Sales manager requests PL

•Sales manager resquests sales report

Event HierarchyEvent Hierarchy

Design

Dialogue

Conceptual

Characteristics

Actual navigsation structure

Characteristics

Most appropriate for planning phase

Business

Next level of resolution

Business Requirements sans U/I Description of

HCI as a function of user, technology, etc.

Event HierarchyEvent Hierarchy

Customer Places order

Customer places preliminary order

Sales Manager confirms order

Production schedules order for shipment..

Sales rep enters order header

Sales rep enters request ship date

Sales Mgr requests sales report

Sales Mgr confirms order

Production control agent requests order schedule

Sales rep clicks new order…

Sales rep clicks requested ship date…

Sales Mgr clicks find unconfirmed orders…

Sales Mgr clicks find, enter order, click save….

Agent clicks find

Conceptual

Business

Dialogue

Design

Information Model

Information ModelInformation Model

Static Map of data required to carry out policy of each event

• Entity: Definition (Reminder)

• The Importance of Keys

• The Entity Hierarchy

• Types of Keys: – A Simple Key, A Compound Key, A Hierarchic

(or Composite) Key, A Foreign Key,

• Navigation: Relationships and Keys

• Exercise

OverviewOverview

• person, place, object, event, or concept

• entity type (entity class)

• entity instance

EntitiesEntities

• property or characteristic of an entity

• candidate key--unique identifier

• primary key--unique ID selected

• multivalued attributes--have many values per instance– hobbies, dependents, skills, languages

AttributesAttributes

• association between instances of one or more entities

• degree of relationship– unary – binary– ternary--simultaneous relationship among 3

entities

RelationshipsRelationships

KeysKeys

• Candidate: Attribute that uniquely identifies each instance of an entity type

• Primary: Candidate key selected as identifier for entity type

Process ModelProcess Model Process ModelProcess Model

In general there are two types of models for the information systems environment—data models and process models.

IS ModelsIS Models

Typically consists of the following (in whole or in part):

• Functional decomposition• Context-level zero diagram• Data flow diagram• Structure chart• State transition diagram• HIPO chart• Pseudocode

Process ModelProcess Model

Because the process model is requirements-based, it is not suitable for the data warehouse.

The process model assumes that a set of known processing requirements exists, before the details of the design are established.

But those assumptions do not hold for the data warehouse.

Many development tools, such as CASE tools, have the same orientation and as such are not applicable to the data warehouse environment.

Process ModelProcess Model

SYSTEM: Customer Accounts

PROCESS NAME: Validate Customer

INPUT: Customer ID

PROCESS: Read customer record to see if customer number is valid

OUTPUT: True or False Condition

HIPO CHARTSHIPO CHARTS

Hierarchy input process output chart consist of 2 parts•A chart showing the hierarchy of processes similar to a structure chart •For each process in part, create a diagram which details the name of the process, inputs, what the inputs are used for, the outputs

Begin If WhileRepeat until

Casewhere

Then

Else otherwise

end endif endwhile endrepeat endcase

Detailed textual description of an algorithm using keywords.

PseudocodePseudocode

PseudocodePseudocode

while not at end of listcompare adjacent elements

if second is greater than firstswitch them

get next two elementsif elements were switchedrepeat for entire list

The data model is applicable to both the existing systems environment and the data warehouse environment.

Data ModelData Model

Data Stability AnalysisData Stability Analysis

• Part Id

• Description

• Substitute

• QOH

• Order Unit

• Safety Stock

• Primary supplier

• Expediter

• Shipping manifest

• Lead time

• Accetable reject rate

• Last order date

• Last order amount

• Las delivery to

• Order amount

• Part Id

• Description

• Substitute

• QOH

• Order Unit

• Safety Stock


• Expediter


• Lead time

• Accetable reject rate

• Last order date


• Las delivery to

• Order amount

• Part-id

• Description

• Order unit

• Lead time

• Acceptable reject rate


• Part-id

• Primary substitute

• Safety stock


• Expediter

• Part-id

• QOH

• Last order date


• Last delivery to

• Order amount

Parts Table Seldom Changes

Sometimes Changes

Frequently Changes

Logical Design• Information Requirements• Logical Structure Design• Data Model and Implementation Constraints

Physical Design• Physical Storage Class Alternatives• Physical Tuning

Database DesignDatabase Design

Data Independence• Program design to be independent from the

logical data structure• Build into the program a monitoring mechanism

that will collect statistics on how the logical data structure is being utilized by the application

Program DesignProgram Design

All relationships are based absolutely on the hierarchical concept of MASTER(PARENT) &DETAIL (CHILD)

DETAILDETAIL DETAIL(MASTER)

DETAIL(MASTER)

DETAILDETAIL DETAILDETAIL

DETAILDETAIL DETAILDETAIL DETAILDETAIL

MASTERMASTER

Entity HierarchyEntity Hierarchy

ER DiagramER Diagram

Customer Customer Rep

Is represented by

Represents

Order

PlacedWas Placed By

EmployeeWas taken by

Took

Order Item

Contains

Was ordered on

Product

Request delivery of

Was ordered on

Product Price

Retails for

Is Price for

ER Diagram NotationER Diagram Notation

Has been ownedOwned

Ow

ned

Has been ow

ned

from McFadden & Hoffer: Modern Database Management: 4th Edition, Benjamin/Cummings, 1994

Context Model Furniture Mfg.Context Model Furniture Mfg.

Customer

InvoiceOrder

ProductProduct

WorkOrder

RawMaterial

VendorVendor

PlacesPlacesBillsBills

FulfillsFulfills

RequestsRequests ShipsShips

UsesUses BuildsBuilds

SuppliesSupplies

ER Model – Furniture Mfg.ER Model – Furniture Mfg.

In general there are two types of models for the information systems environment—data models and process models.

Information System ModelsInformation System Models

Process-oriented information• Identifies which data are used by each process

and how frequently the process is performed

• Data Models

Addresses the organization’s conceptual view of the database: entities, attributes, and relationships

Information RequirementsInformation Requirements

Project Management Project Management in the Technology Environment in the Technology Environment


PROJECT MANAGEMENTPROJECT MANAGEMENT

PROJECT SCOPE MANAGEMENTPROJECT SCOPE MANAGEMENT

Planning Models


1) Initiation

2) Scope planning

3) Definition

4) Verification

5) Change control


1)Net Present Value

2)Return On Investment

3)Payback Analysis

SELECTION METHODS

HardwareHardware• Performance• Cost• Reliability• Compatibility• Technology• Connectivity• Scalability• Support• Software

Software Software • Quality• Flexibility• Security• Connectivity• Language• Documentation• Hardware• Efficiency

Technology Evaluation FactorsTechnology Evaluation Factors

WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE?WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE?

PM EXPERTISEPM EXPERTISE

WHY DO PMs FAIL?WHY DO PMs FAIL?

SUCCESSFUL PMsSUCCESSFUL PMs

IT PROJECT FAILURE RATEIT PROJECT FAILURE RATE

Project Management Core SkillsProject Management Core Skills

Leadership? Creativity?

• Initiate

• Plan

• Execute

• Control

• Close

• Scope Management

• Time Management

• Cost Management

• Quality Management

• Human Resources

• Communications

• Risk Management

• Procurement

CORE SKILLS PROCESS

PROJECT MANAGEMENT INTEGRATION

PROJECT MANAGEMENT INTEGRATION

1) SCOPE

2) TIME

3) COST

4) QUALITY

5) HR

6) COMM

7) RISK

8) PROCURE

Perf

orm

ance

Cost=f(P,T,S)

SCOPE

Time

Cost

3C - SCOPE, TIME, COST3C - SCOPE, TIME, COST

Perfo

rman

ce

SCOPE

Time

Cost

Change ManagementChange Management

Define Change StrategyDefine Change Strategy

Develop LeadershipDevelop Leadership

Build CommitmentBuild Commitment

Deliver Business BenefitsDeliver Business Benefits

Create Change VisionCreate Change Vision

Manage PerformanceManage Performance

Develop CultureDevelop Culture

Design OrganizationDesign Organization

Set Up

Set upSet up

AnalysisAnalysis

DefinitionDefinition

TransitionTransition

PROJECT SCOPE MANAGEMENTPROJECT SCOPE MANAGEMENTNET PRESENT VALUE (NPV) ->today's value of a series of future payments & income

AN. INT. RATE --> 10%

PROJ ECT 1 YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4 YEAR 5 TOTALREVENUES $0 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $14,000COSTS $5,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $9,000CASH FLOW ($5,000) $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000NPV $2,316

Formula =npv(b3,b8:f8)

PROJ ECT 2 YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4 YEAR 5 TOTALREVENUES $1,000 $2,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $15,000COSTS $2,000 $2,000 $2,000 $2,000 $2,000 $10,000CASH FLOW ($1,000) $0 $2,000 $2,000 $2,000 $5,000NPV $3,201

Formula =npv(b3,b15:f15)

RECOMMEND PROJ ECT 2 BECAUSE IT HAS THE HIGHER NPV.

IF STATEMENT -->=IF(B9>B16,A5,A12)RESULT --> PROJ ECT 2

Notice that cash flow totals are the same, but NPVs are different.


PAYBACK ANALYSISDISCOUNT RATE 10% Years

1 2 3 4 5TOTALCOSTS ($5,000) ($1,000) ($1,000) ($1,000) ($1,000) -9,000DISCOUNT FACTOR 0.91 0.83 0.75 0.68 0.62DISCOUNTED COSTS -4,545 -826 -751 -683 -621 -7,427

REVENUE $0 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 14,000DISCOUNT FACTOR 0.91 0.83 0.75 0.68 0.62DISCOUNTED REVENUE 0 1,653 2,254 2,732 3,105 9,743

DISCOUNTED REVENUE + COSTS -4,545 826 1,503 2,049 2,484 2,316 NPVCUMULATIVE REVENUE + COSTS -4,545 -3,719 -2,216 -167 2,316 4,633

ROI 31% Payback in this year

WEIGHTED SCORING MODELWEIGHTED SCORING MODELCriteria Weight Project 1 Project 2 Project 3 Project 4Supports key business objectives 25% 90 90 50 20Has strong internal sponsor 15% 70 90 50 20Has strong customer support 15% 50 90 50 20Realistic level of technology 10% 25 90 50 70Can be implemented in one year or less 5% 20 20 50 90Provides positive NPV 20% 50 70 50 50Has low risk in meeting scope, time, and cost goals10% 20 50 50 90 Weighted Project Scores 100% 56 78.5 50 41.5

Weighted Score by Project

0 20 40 60 80 100

Project 1

Project 2

Project 3

Project 4

Goal Measure Target InitiativeFinancialGoal Measure Target Initiative

FinancialGoal Measure Target InitiativeFinancial

Goal Measure Target InitiativeCustomerGoal Measure Target Initiative

CustomerGoal Measure Target InitiativeCustomer VisionVision

MissionMissionStrategyStrategy

VisionVisionMissionMissionStrategyStrategy

Goal Measure Target InitiativeInternal Business ProcessGoal Measure Target Initiative

Internal Business ProcessGoal Measure Target InitiativeInternal Business Process

Goal Measure Target InitiativeLearning and GrowthGoal Measure Target Initiative

Learning and GrowthGoal Measure Target InitiativeLearning and Growth

Business UnitsSupport Units

Team/Individual

Cascading ScorecardsCascading Scorecards

Quickly Developing a Balanced Scorecard (Arcplan Info. Services, Germany)

http://www.arcplan.com/press/press033e.htm

Broadenrevenue mix

Increase customersatisfaction

Develop newproducts

Developstrategic skills

Revenue mix

Customerretention

% Revenue fromnew products

Skill coverage

10% Product A40% Product B50% Product C

95%

1999 -- 15% 2000 -- 50% 2001 -- 60%

90%

• Sales Promotions• New Channel Marketing

• Frequent Buyers’ Club

• R & D Program• Customer Mailing

• Custom Training• Knowledge Library

Objective Measure Target Initiatives

Le

arn

ing

&

Gro

wth

Inte

rna

lC

ust

om

er

Fin

an

cia

l

Performanceexpectation

Key action programs required to achieve

objectivesHow success will be measured and

tracked

What strategy must be achieved

and what is critical to its success

Linking MetricsLinking Metrics

RESPONSIBILITY ASSIGNMENT MATRIX (RAM

RESPONSIBILITY ASSIGNMENT MATRIX (RAM

RAM integrates the Organization Breakdown Structure (OBS) with the Contract Work Breakdown Structure (CWBS)

TIME MANAGEMENT - CPMTIME MANAGEMENT - CPM

Critical Path – shortest path in which the project can be completed

Activity 1 Activity 3

Activity 4


Activity 7

Activity 6

Activity 8

1 Day

3 Day

2 Day4 Day

6 Day

3 Day

6 Day

4 Day

2 Day

5 Day

16 Days

COST ANALSYSCOST ANALSYS

COST ANALYSIS- EVACOST ANALYSIS- EVA

COST ANALYSIS- RESOURCE LOADING

COST ANALYSIS- RESOURCE LOADING

COST ANALYSIS- EACCOST ANALYSIS- EAC

• EVA - a way to measure a project’s progress, forecast its completion date and final cost, and provide schedule and budget variances along the way.

• Based on just 3 sets of data, it can provide consistent, numerical indicators with which you can evaluate and compare projects.

EVA - INTRODUCTIONEVA - INTRODUCTION

• Budgeted Cost of Work Performed.

• Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled.

• Actual Cost of Work Performed.

FUNDAMENTAL METRICSFUNDAMENTAL METRICS

• Schedule Variance (SV)

• Schedule Performance Index (SPI)

• Cost Variance (CV)

• Cost Performance Index (CPI)

DERIVED METRICSDERIVED METRICS

• BAC - Budget At Completion - Total Original Budgeted Cost

- Same as BCWS at completion

• EAC - Estimate At Completion– Cumulative Actuals + Estimate-To-Complete

• VAC - Variance At Completion– Forecast of final cost variance

MORE ACRONYMSMORE ACRONYMS

• SV = BCWP - BCWS- Negative means Behind Schedule

• SPI = BCWP / BCWS- Less than 1.00 means Behind Schedule

• CV = BCWP - ACWP- Negative means Over Budget

• CPI = BCWP / ACWP- Less than 1.00 means Over Budget

• EAC = BAC / CPI

DOING THE MATHDOING THE MATH

• Make 1,000 cups over 50 days

• Steady rate of 20 cups per day

• Budgeted cost per cup is $0.50

• Total project budget is $500

IF LEMONS-> LEMONADEIF LEMONS-> LEMONADE

• At end of day 10:

• 150 cups have been made

• Total actual cost is $90 (ACWP)

STATUS EOD 10STATUS EOD 10

• BCWS = $100- 10 days x 20 cups per day x .50/cup budget

• BCWP = $75 (Earned Value)- 150 cups x .50/cup budget

• SV = BCWP - BCWS = -$25• SPI = BCWP / BCWS = 0.75• CV = BCWP - ACWP = $75 - $90 = -$15• CPI = BCWP / ACWP = 0.833

PROJECT STATUSPROJECT STATUS

• Estimate At Completion = Cumulative Actuals + Estimate-To-Complete

EAC = BAC / CPI = $500 / 0.833 = $600

• Variance At Completion = Forecast of final cost variance

VAC = BAC - EAC = $500 - $600 = $100 (unfavorable)

• Schedule at Completion =50 / SPI = 50 / 0.75 = 66.67 days

PROJECT FORECASTPROJECT FORECAST

TIME MANAGEMENT TIME MANAGEMENT

TMGT 510

PROJECT TIME MANAGEMENT PROJECT TIME MANAGEMENT

1) GANTT

2) Precedence Diagrams

3) PERT Charts

Project schedules

TIME MANAGEMENT - CPMTIME MANAGEMENT - CPM

Critical Path – shortest path in which the project can be completed


Activity 4


Activity 7

Activity 6

Activity 8

1 Day

3 Day

2 Day4 Day

6 Day

3 Day

6 Day

4 Day

2 Day

5 Day

16 Days

TIME MANAGEMENT - PERTTIME MANAGEMENT - PERTPROGRAM EVALUATION & REVIEW (problems eventually resolve themselves)

- A statistical technique applied to a network schedule.


Activity 4


Activity 7

Activity 6

Activity 8

1 Day

3 Day

2 Day4 Day

6 Day

3 Day

6 Day

4 Day

2 Day

5 Day

Average Time = (Best Case + (4 x Expected Case) + Worst Case) / 6

TMGT 510Work Shop 2


COST CONTROL

SCOPE & TIME MANAGEMENTSCOPE & TIME MANAGEMENT

Perfo

rman

ce

Perfo

rman

ce

Cost=f(P,T,S)

SCOPE

TIMETIME

Cost

Cost

"Cheshire-Puss," she began, rather timidly, "Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?"

"That depends a great deal on where you want to get to," said the cat.

"I don't much care where -," said Alice.

"Then it doesn't matter which way you go," said the cat.--Lewis Carroll

Alice in Wonderland

-

WHERE ARE WE GOING?WHERE ARE WE GOING?

Are we on schedule?Are we on cost?What are the significant variances? Why do we have variances?Who is responsible?What is the trend to date?

When will we finish? What will it cost at the end? How can we control the trend?

Analyze past performance………….…to help control the future

PAST PRESENT FUTURE

PROJECT ROAD MAPPROJECT ROAD MAP

PROJECT COST CONTROLPROJECT COST CONTROL

03/04/2001


11/28/2001

COST CONTROLCOST CONTROL

ROM

RAM

CPU

COST CONTROLCOST CONTROL

Tangible Cost/Benefit

Intangible Cost/Benefit

Direct Costs

Indirect Cost

Sunk Cost

Learning Curve Theory

Reserves

Cost avoidance window of opportunity

PROJECT COST MANAGEMENTPROJECT COST MANAGEMENT

15%

TIME


Cost estimateCost estimate

ROMROMBudgetaryBudgetaryDefinitiveDefinitive

AnalogousAnalogous Top/DownTop/Down ParametricParametric

http://www.jsc.nasa.gov/bu2/COCOMO.html

http://sunset.usc.edu/research/COCOMOII/index.html









WBSWBS

SCHEDULESCHEDULE

COST COST ESTIMATESESTIMATES

BUDGETBUDGET

1. SW Development

• Code

• Test

• Document

1. SW Development

• Code: $10X

• Test: $1x

• Document: $0.5x

$xxx.xxx.xxx


Planned cost

Cost to Date

TIME

CO

ST

Good News?


TASK•Conceptual Design

•Program Specification

•Coding

•Documentation

•User Manual Production

•Debugging

STATUS• Complete

• Complete

• In Process

• In Process

• Not Yet Started

• Not Yet Started

50% Complete?

Apples and Oranges




•Coding

•Documentation


•Debugging

STATUS• Complete

• Complete

• In Process

• In Process

• Not Yet Started

• Not Yet Started

50% Complete?




•Coding

•Documentation


•Debugging

BUDGET• 200 hours

• 300 hours

• 600 hours

• 100 hours

• 400 hours

• 500 hours

31% Complete: 660/2100

BUDGET• 200 earned

• 300 earned

• 150 earned

• 10 earned

• NYS

• NYS

TOTAL 2,100 hours 660 earned


EVA = f(% Complete)

Uniform Unit of Measure

CONSTRUCTION

Concrete (cubic yards)

Forms (sq ft)

Pipe (ft)

Rebar (tons)

Conduit (ft)

MOVIE INDUSTRY

Screenplay writing

Set Production

Filming

Editing

Marketing


Physical Work:

Task: Pour 1000 cubic yards of concrete

Progress: 300 done to date

% complete 30%

Task: Create Design drawing:

• 10% when preliminary study is complete

• 20% When draft is complete

• 40% First draft printed

• 50% First draft review

• 60% Second draft is complete

• 75% Customer review

• 90% Final draft is complete

• 100% Released for construction

50-50% Rule: 50% after its start date, 100% Finish

BCWS

ACWP

EVA (BCWP)

TIME

Data Date

To Date Cost Variance

To Date Schedule Variance

BCWS: Budgeted Cost of Work ScheduledACWP: Actual Cost of Work PerformedEVA (BCWP): Budgeted Cost of Work Performed


BAC (Budget at Completion)

EAC (Estimate at Completion)

FCST: Forecast of Remaining Work


Earned Value Analysis (EVA)

Physical Progress

(consistent)

EVA = f(% Complete)

Uniform Unit of Measure

EARNED VALUE METHODOLOGY

QUALITY MANAGEMENT QUALITY MANAGEMENT

TMGT 510

QUALITY

QUALITY CONTROL

QUALITY ASSURANCE

PROJECT QUALITY MANAGEMENTPROJECT QUALITY MANAGEMENT


Sigma Defective Units per Billion

3 2,700,000

6 2


Pareto Diagram

FIELD PERFORMANCE MODELSFIELD PERFORMANCE MODELS

TIME

Infa

nt M

orta

lity

SOFTWARE QUALITY CONTROLSOFTWARE QUALITY CONTROL

Test

MaintenanceCode

DesignAnalysis

Spoilage

Software Quality: Absence of spoilage

SOFTWARE QUALITY CONTROLSOFTWARE QUALITY CONTROL

Detection Rate

Removal Rate

Responsibility

WORST BESTTom DeMarco

Capability Maturity ModelCapability Maturity Model

• Capability Maturity Models® (CMMs®):- 1. Initial: Few processes are defined, success a function of individual effort

- 2. Repeatable: Basic processes in place to repeat earlier success

- 3. Defined : Processes for engineering and management are documented.

- 4. Managed: Detailed metrics for software process and quality

- 5. Optimizing: Peak performance

http://www.sei.cmu.edu/cmm/cmms/cmms.html





Capability Maturity ModelCapability Maturity Model

• Project Management Maturity Model- 1. Ad-Hoc: Few processes are defined, success a function of individual effort

- 2 Abbreviated: Basic processes in place to repeat earlier success

- 3. Organized: Processes for engineering and management are documented.

- 4. Managed: Detailed metrics for software process and quality

- 5. Adaptive: Peak performance

Project Human Resources and Project Human Resources and Communication ManagementCommunication Management

TMGT 510

PROJECT MANAGEMENTPROJECT MANAGEMENT

Leadership!!!!

HR AND COMMUNICATIONHR AND COMMUNICATION


WBSWBS

SCHEDULESCHEDULE

COST COST ESTIMATESESTIMATES

BUDGETBUDGET

1. SW Development

• Code

• Test

• Document

1. SW Development

• Code: $10X

• Test: $1x

• Document: $0.5x

$xxx.xxx.xxx

Resource Loading


Values

GOALS

STRUCTURE

CLIMATE

ENVIRONMENT

MarketplaceOther Teams

CultureCompetition

Pressures

Clarity Commitment

Reward System

Reporting Relationships

Feedback System

Behavior Norm

Decision Making

Competition

Enthusiasm

Stress

Trust

Involvement

Flexibility

Collaboration Mission Philosophy

Accountability


MANAGING DIFFICULT PEOPLE

21. Bulls -- come out charging, attacking the other person, perhaps out of frustration

22. Snakes: Hides and attacks when least expected. Trying to maintain order

21. Cheetahs – Burst in sudden temper displays

22. Macaw Parrots - Talk and chatter, sometimes sense, sometimes none-sense

23. Ostriches - handle difficult situations in non-committal way

24. Cubs – humorous, friendly and cooperative. Do not reveal what they really think, leads them to make unrealistic commitments.

25. Hyenas – They lack faith on other people and wilt them with sarcasm and doubts.

26. Rhinoceroses – strong and knowledgeable whose “know-it-all” attitudes are overbearing.

27. Peacocks -- pretender they are experts, but aren’t.

28. Turkeys – cannot make a decision. Are nice, but hope situations resolve themselves.

29. Beavers – hardworking and proficient, but arouse other employees’ jealousy and suspicion.

HR AND COMMUNICATIONHR AND COMMUNICATIONIntent Need Category

Get it done right Control Ruler Get it done right Accuracy Analyzer Get Along Approval Relater Get Appreciated Attention Entertainer

Relater Entertainer

Analyzer Ruler

Passive Aggressive

Tas

k O

rien

ted

Peo

ple

Ori

ente

d

Window on the World of Difficult People

RISK MANAGEMENT RISK MANAGEMENT

TMGT 510

• User Involvement 19%• Exectuive Management Support 16%• Clear Requirements 15%• Proper Planning 11%• Realistic Expectations 10%• Smaller Project Milestones 9%• Competent Staff 8%• Ownership 6%• Clear Vision and Objectives 3%• Hardworking, Focus Staff 3%

PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENTPROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT

• · Risk is inherent to every project. Risk is a fundamental ingredient of opportunity and is a part of every project. It is the possibility, not the certainty, of bearing a loss.

• • · Risk is neither intrinsically good nor bad. Risk is not

something to avoid, especially because it is inherent to every project. Every risk identified is a potential opportunity.

• Risk is not something to fear, but something to manage. Successful teams deal with risk by recognizing and minimizing

uncertainty and by proactively addressing each identified risk.


RISK CHARACTERISTICS

• Assess risks continuously throughout the project life cycle. • Ongoing risk management of a project introduces a degree of resilience

to change.• Use risk-based decision-making. Requires that all decisions be made

within the context of their risk. The team’s actions are prioritized in relationship to the status of the risk—the highest risk items should be dealt with first and incorporated into the project plan

• Establish some level of formality. Requires a process that is understood and used by the team. not structured, it will not be useful.

• Cover all key people and processes. The team must ensure that the key persons and processes are covered, or it is likely that significant risks will be missed.

• Treat risk identification as a positive. Team members must be willing to identify risk without fear of punishment or criticism.


RISK MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLES


Risk Management Process

• Inclusive contribution. Risk identification is best accomplished as a group effort in order to fully explore the potential risks associated with the readiness effort. ·

• • Premortem. Encourages the project team and any other participants to use their intuition

and imagination by looking into the future and predicting what might make the project fail.• • Negative thinking. Applying logical but negative thinking to both the project management

strategy and the rationale for sponsorship seeks to identify oversights, alternatives, conflicts, and new possibilities.

• Interdependencies of risks. When developing a strategy to manage risk, the readiness team should examine the relationships and dependencies among risks. A strategy to reduce risk in one area can increase risk in another. For example, a decision to reduce the risk of a lengthy project by adding team members will increase the risk of poor team coordination and miscommunication.

• Iterative process. Because circumstances and information may change throughout the course of the project, it is wise to discuss risk mitigation plans and history, and identify new risks with the completion of each milestone.

PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENTPROJECT RISK MANAGEMENTIDENTIFICATION

• Economic and regulatory risks. May prevent the project from delivering the expected benefits

• Product, market, and competitive risks. Related to the current or future issues that may arise in the marketplace.

• Technological risks. Include not achieving project goals because of technological failure, inadequacy, or lack of readiness.

• Organizational risks. When not present, minimize the return on investment of a project. These missing factors might include: a clear statement of requirements, realistic expectations, stakeholder commitment (lack of vendor or user support), executive sponsorship, project management skills and experience, communication planning and execution, rewards and recognition alignment, cultural alignment, training and education, organizational structure alignment, etc.


RISK TYPES

• Leadership, Represents an organization’s intent or capability to create change.

• Culture, Represents the set of beliefs, behaviors, and assumptions that guide people’s day-to-day activities within the organization.

• Individuals, Represents the employees’ competence, capacity, and resilience for dealing successfully with the IT change;

• Business Process, Represents the organization’s ability to execute its mission in delivering products and services to its target market or audience.

• Solution Development Process, Represents the organization’s ability to develop an IT solution to address specific business requirements.

• Operational Process, Represents the organization’s capability of maximizing the operations of its IT plans.

• Hardware, Represents the most tangible product of a technology change.

• Software, the applications designed to provide capabilities at the core of the business objectives.


ORGANIZATIONAL READINESS RISKS

• Qualitative

• Quantitative


IDENTIFICATION

PROCUREMENT MANAGEMENT PROCUREMENT MANAGEMENT

TMGT 510

PROJECT PROCUREMENT MANAGEMENT

PROJECT PROCUREMENT MANAGEMENT

Buyer Risk

Seller Risk

Firm Fixed PriceFirm Fixed Price

Fixed Price + IncentiveFixed Price + Incentive

Cost + IncentiveCost + Incentive

Cost + Fixed FeeCost + Fixed Fee

Cost + % CostCost + % Cost

cis570 ws3 project planning business systems joseph lewis aguirre

Documents

context model slide

implementation slide

time slide

software economics slide

cognitive demand slide

context context influences

touch platform economics

context model im