CIFOR, Oil Palm and GFSF

Ahmad Dermawan CIFOR

Global Futures & Strategic Foresight Extended Team Meeting

Rome, Italy | May 25-28, 2015

CIFOR and foresight

• Scenario development and analysis

• Local to national scales

• More qualitative exercises

Typical process

Integrated land use planning

Designing strategies to improve small scale operators

Formulating smallholder tree planting policies

A tool for community-based forest management

Aspirations

• Future works: – Moving towards a combination of quantitative

and qualitative scenario analysis – Forest-agriculture interface, land use – Focus on key commodities: timber, oil palm,

rubber – From national to global level – Make a better use of the data

• Foresight as an evaluation tool

CIFOR works on oil palm

• Review on the opportunities and challenges of oil palm expansion

• The role of oil palm in bioenergy • The role of oil palm in local economic

development • Engagement with national government (ISPO)

and multistakeholder process (RSPO, HCS)

Global oil palm picture

• The production of palm oil is concentrated • Top two countries (Indonesia and Malaysia)

contribute to 86% of global production • Top five countries (Top two, plus Thailand,

Colombia, and Nigeria) contribute to 92% of global production

• ASEAN countries contribute to 89% of production

Oil palm production

Indonesia

Malaysia

Thailand

Colombia Nigeria PNG Ecuador Ghana

Honduras Guatemala

Others

Indonesia - 2014

29.3 million ton CPO production

10.9 million ha area

3.6 ton CPO/ha

Indonesia – yield potentials Variety FFB Yield (ton/ha) CPO (ton/ha)

D x P PPKS 540 (High mesocarp) 28.1 8.1

D x P PPKS 718 (Big bunch) 26.5 6.9

D x P PPKS 239 (High CPO & PKO) 32.0 8.4

D x P Simalungun 28.4 7.5

D x P Langkat 27.5 7.2

D x P Sungai Pancur (Dumpy) 26.5 6.9

D x P LaMe 26.5 6.4

D x P Avros 25.5 6.3

D x P Yangambi 26.5 6.5

Government vision 35.0 9.1

Malaysia - 2014

19.7 million ton CPO production

5.4 million ha area

3.8 ton CPO/ha

Malaysia – yield potentials FFB (ton/ha) CPO/ha

Government target 35 8.8

Theoretical max 17

Highest trials 11.5

Highest field yield 6.8

Highest national yield 4.4

Oil palm goes home

• Land is getting scarce in Indonesia and Malaysia

• Expansion to other regions, e.g. Africa