ciclos do mercado
TRANSCRIPT
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Gráficos
Gráfico dos preços?
Gráfico PREÇO X TEMPO
Gráficos são bidimensionais
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Ciclos
Ocorrem em diversas periodicidades
Funcionam em conjunto
Devem ser usados com outras ferramentas da AnáliseTécnica
Operar de acordo com o local onde estamos dentro dosciclos que conhecemos
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Ciclos de Longo Prazo
Ondas de KONDRATIEFF
Ciclo Decenal
Ciclo Quadrienal
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Ondas de KONDRATIEFF
Descoberto por um economista Russo
Ciclos de 50 a 54 anos
Não é operável
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Ondas de KONDRATIEFF
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Ciclo Decenal
Estuda o comportamento de cada ano dentro da década
Muito útil para investidores de longo prazo
Melhor visualizado no mercado americano
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Dow 1881-2007
8326515765negativos
491078128678positivos
-7,2%9,2%18,5%-2,5%6,8%28,3%7,1%5,1%1,8%0,01%%média
0987654321ano
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Ciclo Decenal
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Ciclo Presidencial - Dow
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Ciclos Presidencial - Ibov
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Ciclos de Longo Prazo
Fundos do Ciclo Decenal:
1932,1942,1952,1962,1972,1982,1992,2002
Fundos do Ciclo Quadrienal:1942,1946,1950,1954,1958,1962,1966,1970,1974,1978,1982,198
6,1990,1994,1998,2002,2006
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Ciclos de Longo Prazo
Pontos de coincidência são poderosos
Coincidência dos fundos:
1942,1962,1982,2002
Próximo ponto de coincidência: 2022
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Ciclos de Longo Prazo
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Ciclo Anual – Ibov 1999-2008
Abril - Setembro = -0,04% a.m.
Outubro - Março = 4,40% a.m
098,65dez
276,05nov
365,14out
46-1,68set
372,00ago
55-2,24 jul
550,08 jun
640,27mai
461,32abr
551,11mar
463,17fev
642,24 jannegativospositivos% média
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Ciclos Anual
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Ciclos Anual - Dow
11,80%dez
31,70%nov
70,60%out
12-1,10%set
10-0,10%ago
51,10%jul
11-0,10%jun90,10%mai
21,80%abr
60,90%mar
80,20%fev
41,40%jan
ranking%média
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Ciclo Mensal Ibov 2003-2007
35%65%29%71%44%56%%
21393585548687total
40%60%14373959dez
37%63%14283762nov
42%58%14374462out
42%58%32284360set
41%59%23464665ago
46%54%32194857 jul
53%47%14285549 jun
45%55%32284858mai
48%52%32284751abr
44%56%14554861mar
45%55%14554150fev
50%50%14465253 jan% neg% posdias -dias +dias -dias +dias -dias +mês
diaultimodois diasprimeirosinteiromês
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Ciclo Mensal Ibov 2003-2007
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Ciclo Mensal Ibov 2000-2002
53%47%51%49%52%48%%
19173735385357total
46%54%21242630dez45%55%12422733nov
53%47%12423531out
64%36%21423821set
51%49%30333533ago
56%44%12423628 jul
52%48%03243229 jun
48%52%21333134mai
52%48%21513229abr
54%46%12063429mar
49%51%21422829fev
50%50%21243131 jan
% neg% posdias -dias +dias -dias +dias -dias +mês
diaultimodois diasprimeirosinteiromês
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Ciclo mensal Dow Jones
2 de setembro de 1997 a 1º de abril de 2005
Ganho de 2781 pontos
Ganho de 3867 pontos no primeiro dia de cada mês
Perda de 1086 pontos no resto do mês
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Movimento do mês
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Ciclos da semana - Segunda-feira
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Ciclos da semana – Quinta-feira
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Ciclos dentro do dia
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Quinta,17/10/2002
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Ciclo presidencial
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Princípio da soma
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Princípios dos ciclos
Princípio da Harmonia
Princípio da Sincronia
Princípio da Variação
Princípio da Proporcionalidade
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Posição dos Topos
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Ciclos em Conjunto com AT
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Fibonacci no Tempo
Movimentos respeitam as Proporções de Fibonacci notempo assim como no preço.
Estudando o tempo de movimentos passados podemosidentificar o provável tempo de movimentos futuros.
Há varias formas de se utilizar fibonacci no tempo
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Retrações de Fibonacci
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Ondas de Elliott e o Tempo
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Ondas de Elliott e o Tempo
Onda A: não existe padrão confiável para o tempo.
Onda B: dura de 50% a 100% do tempo da Onda A
Onda C: Dura cerca de 62% 100% ou 162% da Onda A
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