Analysis of Property Values Compared to Valid Sales Among Single-Family Homes

in the Churchill East Neighborhood

Overview

Churchill East is a neighborhood in transition located in the south-central urban core between two interstates, two major rail lines, the University of Louisville Belknap Campus, and in close proximity to Louisville International Airport and UPS. In addition, Churchill Downs Racetrack sits in the middle of the neighborhood, while Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium lies just to the east. The neighborhood is directly bounded on the north by the U of L campus, on the east by I-265, on the south by I-264, and west along Taylor Boulevard.

Overview

The Impact of Foreclosures on the Churchill East Neighborhood

According to the latest Census data available [Census 2000], Churchill East is a predominantly white neighborhood the majority of whose residents range in age from 25 to 55 (see the Population Pyramid Chart below). Over 50% of the population are in the low to moderate income range, 56% own their homes and 8% of the housing stock is vacant1. Although more current data is not available, it’s expected that the Churchill East neighborhood will see a decrease in homeownership, increase in vacant houses and a rise in poverty since the last census.

Demographic Profile of the Churchill East Neighborhood

12010 Census data is not available for small areas yet. The US Census Bureau is scheduled to release this data in 2011.

Under 5

5-9

10-14

15-17

18-19

20

21

22-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-61

62-64

65-66

67-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Male Female

Population by Age and Gender Size of Household

956

511

371

164

7936

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Two in HHLD Three in HHLD Four in HHLD Five in HHLD Six in HHLD Seven or more in HHLD

1,829, 53%

1,609, 47%

OWNER RENTER

Owners and Renters

Analysis of Current Assessed Values of Single-Family Homes in the Churchill East

Neighborhood

PART I

Inventory of Single Family Housing Stock in the Churchill East Neighborhood

12010 Census data is not available for small areas yet.

The majority of the housing stock (67%) is comprised of 1 story homes built between 1900 and 1945. The remainder are homes built anywhere from 1946 to 2008. Twenty-three percent of the homes built after 1945 are ranch-style, 5% are 1 ½ story camelback, and less than 1% are 2 story houses.

The average assessed value per square foot in the Churchill Neighborhood is ~ $59, and the average home finished size is 1,008 square feet.

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Assessed Value per Square Foot

Below Average Homes, Below Average Price per Square Foot

Above Average Homes, Below Average Price per

Square Foot

Above Average Homes, Above Average Price per

Square Foot

Below Average Homes, Above Average Price per Square Foot

Assessed Value per Square Foot

Where x = Finished Size and y = Dollars per Square Foot

To interpret the graph above, a value of 1.0 means that the home [value per sq ft and/or finished size] is the same as the majority of homes in this neighborhood. Anything less than 1.0 means the value is less than that of the majority, and anything above 1.0 means the value is higher than the average in that neighborhhood. The average assessed value per square foot in the Churchill Neighborhood is ~ $59, and the average home finished size is 1,008 square feet. The circled area includes all homes 50% above and below the mean for home value and finished size. We will look at this range of homes, excluding all properties that don’t fall within this selection, for the 1st portion of our analysis, and look at the excluded data, the outliers, for the 2nd portion of the analysis.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50

Assessed Value per Square Foot and Finished Size of Home

x = assessed value per square foot in the Churchill neighborhood

y = finished size of single-family homes in the Churchill neighborhood

The homes north of Churchill Downs are generally assessed at the lowest dollar values per square foot, yet the grade is average or above average. In contrast, the homes south and west of Churchill Downs are valued higher but graded below average as Fair. This situation is being addressed by the Residential R & D Team.

Quality of Construction of Single-Family Homes in the Churchill East Neighborhood

478, 18%

37, 1%

21, 1%

1197, 46%

862, 33%

14, 1% 1, 0% 1, 0%

Average

Average -

Average +

Fair

Fair -

Fair +

Good -

Low

Quality of Construction / Grade

Analysis of Valid Sales Between July 1, 2008 and August 10, 2010

of Single-Family Homes in the Churchill East Neighborhood

PART II

Distribution of Valid Sales Between July 1, 2008 and August 10, 2010 of Single-Family Homes in the Churchill East Neighborhood

High square footage, high price per foot

715, $109

992, $28

1,097, $104

1,564, $35

1,680, $39

1,729, $55

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

0 969

V V Sales per Square Foot July 1, 2008 through August 10, 2010

Average Finished Size = 969 Square Feet

Median Price per Square Foot = $69

Below Average Homes, Above Average Price per Square Foot

Above Average Homes, Above Average Price per

Square Foot

Above Average Homes, Below Average Price per

Square Foot

Below Average Homes, Below Average Price per Square Foot

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

25 38 36 28

43

28

17

39 47 48 38 25 23

36

36

41

28 26 28 20 26 23

34

23

25

32 22 23 16 21 18

20

32

19

32 19 19 17 19 22

23

22

18

Standardized Value per Square Foot Standardized Finished Size

Relationship Between Finished Size and Price Per Square Foot of Valid Sales Between July 1, 2008 and August 10, 2010

of Single-Family Homes in the Churchill East Neighborhood

High amount of variability in home size correlated to sale price.

Relationship Between Finished Size and Price Per Square Foot of Valid Sales Between July 1, 2008 and August 10, 2010

of Single-Family Homes in the Churchill East Neighborhood

High amount of variability in home size correlated to sale price.