chula vista market update - week of february 27, 2011

Current prices for homes on the marketTrends in pricing

Current levels of supply and demandValue metrics

market updateMcMillin Realty's

CHULA VISTA

Sunday February 27, 2011Report for the week of

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The median single family home pricein CHULA VISTA this week is$345,000. The 835 homes have been onthe market for an average of 134 days.

THIS WEEK

Most Expensive ListingLeast Expensive Listing

Median List PriceAverage List Price

Real-Time Market Profile Trend

Total Inventory

$ 345,000$ 384,125

$ 3,499,000$ 109,000

835134Average Days on Market

Asking Price per Square Foot $ 174

54Absorbed This Week*Percent of Properties with Price Decrease 34 %Percent Relisted (reset DOM) 11 %Percent Flip (price increased) 10 %

City Overview CHULA VISTA

6,501 - 8,000 sq ft

Altos Research Value StatisticsMarket Action Index

Median Number of BedroomsMedian Number of Bathrooms

Median House Size (sq ft)Median Lot Size

Median Age

2,000

4.03.010

18Cold! Buyer's MarketAltos Research calculates the Market Action Index which measures available supplyrelative to the current level of demand. Index value above 30 indicates conditions favorthe seller. See the section below for full details.

Days-on-market has been trending uprecently but the Market Action Indexand inventory levels are basically flatand not providing strong indications forthe market.

To get a tightly targeted understandingof homes in the market, we break eachlocale into quartiles. Each quartile is25% of the homes listed.

QUARTILES

Characteristics per Quartile

Last Month's Trend Last Quarter's Trend

Trend Key

No Clear Monthly/Quarterly Trend

Bed BathMed.Sqft.

Med.Age Inven. New

Ab-sorbedMed. Lot SizeMedian PriceQuart

Avg.DoM

*Metric "Absorbed this Week" covers properties sold and those taken off the market for other reasons.Since sales sometimes take months to close, it is impossible to discern in real-time exactly which propertiessold.

Most expensive 25% of homes3,149 5.0 4.0 7 208 14 198,001 - 10,000

sq ft$ 499,9001 143

Upper-middle 25% of homes2,244 4.0 3.0 9 209 16 144,501 - 6500

sq ft$ 387,9002 136

Lower-middle 25% of homes1,740 4.0 3.0 10 209 14 44,501 - 6500

sq ft$ 320,0003 123

Least expensive 25% of homes1,392 3.0 2.0 46 209 12 176,501 - 8,000

sq ft$ 250,0004 135

We'll refer to the quartiles in the trendgraphs below.

2McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA


PRICEDespite this week's down tic, the marketseems to have paused around thisplateau. The Market Action Index is agood leading indicator for thedurability of this shift.

QUARTILE PRICES

Prices have settled at a price plateauacross the board. Prices in all fourquartiles are basically mixed. Look for apersistent shift (up or down) in theMarket Action Index before prices movefrom these current levels.

Often, we find insights by watchingpricing trends within the quartilesegments.



The market plateau is seen across theprice and value. The price per squarefoot and median list price have bothbeen reasonably stagnant. Watch theMarket Action Index for persistentchanges as a leading indicator beforethe market moves from these levels.

PRICE AND VALUE

INVENTORYInventory has been relatively steadyaround these levels in recent weeks.



The CHULA VISTA market is currentlyquite strongly in the Buyer's Marketzone (below 30). The 90-day MarketAction Index stands at 18. With severalmonths of inventory available at thecurrent sales rate, buyers should findample choice.

The market has shown some evidence ofslowing recently. Both prices andinventory levels are relativelyunchanged in recent weeks. Watch theMarket Action Index for changes as itcan be a leading indicator for pricechanges.

The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates the balance between supply and demand using astatistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory.

An MAI value greater than 30 typically indicates a “Seller's Market” (a.k.a. "Hot Market")because demand is high enough to quickly gobble up available supply. A hot market willtypically cause prices to rise. MAI values below 30 indicate a "Buyer's Market" (a.k.a. "ColdMarket") where the inventory of already-listed homes is sufficient to last several months atthe current rate of sales. A cold market will typically cause prices to fall.

MARKET ACTION INDEXResidential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can becharacterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the indexfalls into the Buyer’s Market zone for a long period, prices are likely in for a downwardcorrection.

Not surprisingly given the overallMarket Action Index, all quartiles are inthe Buyer's Market zone with severalmonths of inventory given the currentrate of demand for homes in thequartile. Watch the quartile for changesbefore the overall market shifts. Oftenone end of the market (e.g. the low end)will improve and signal a strengtheningmarket before the whole group changes.

The quartiles can help you answer the question, "How hot is the market for homes in my pricerange?"

MARKET ACTION QUARTILES



DAYS ON MARKET (DOM)The properties have been on themarket for an average of 134 days. Halfof the listings have come newly on themarket in the past 91 or so days.

DOM PER QUARTILEIt is not uncommon for the higherpriced homes in an area to take longerto sell than those in the lowerquartiles.



91915Neighborhood DetailCHULA VISTA




Total Inventory

$ 350,000$ 377,300

$ 700,000$ 220,000



6Absorbed This Week

The median single family home pricein CHULA VISTA 91915 this week is$350,000.

THIS WEEK



Median Age

2,134

4.03.0

7Altos Research Value Statistics

4,501 - 6500 sq ft

Market Action Index 15Cold! Buyer's Market

Days-on-market has been trending uprecently but the Market Action Indexand inventory levels are basically flatand not providing strong indications forthe market.

PRICEWe continue to see prices in this zipcode bouncing around this plateau.Look for a persistent up-shift in theMarket Action Index before we seeprices move from these levels.



PRICE PER QUARTILEIn the quartile market segments, we seeprices in this zip code have settled at aprice plateau across the board. Prices inall four quartiles are basically mixed.Look for a persistent shift (up or down)in the Market Action Index before pricesmove from these current levels.

QUARTILESCharacteristics per Quartile

Bed BathMed. SqftMed.Age Inven. New


Avg.DoM


sq ft$ 469,0001 147


sq ft$ 392,5002 144


sq ft$ 329,9953 126

Least expensive 25% of homes1,636 3.0 3.0 7 46 1 24,501 - 6500

sq ft$ 290,0004 143


PRICE AND VALUE



INVENTORYInventory has been climbing lately with183 properties available this week. Notethat rising inventory alone does notsignal a weakening market. Look to theMarket Action Index to gauge whetherbuyer interest is keeping up withavailable supply.

The CHULA VISTA 91915 is quitestrongly in the Buyer's Market zone.The 90-day Market Action Index standsat 15. With several months of inventoryavailable at the current sales rate,buyers should find ample choice.

MARKET ACTION INDEX

MARKET ACTION QUARTILESNot surprisingly, all quartiles are in theBuyer's Market zone with severalmonths of inventory given the currentlevels of demand. Watch the quartilesfor changes before the overall marketshifts.



DAYS ON MARKETThe properties have been on the marketfor an average of 139 days. Half of thelistings have come newly on the marketin the past 119 or so days. Watch the 90-day DOM trend for signals of a changingmarket.

DAYS ON MARKET

It is not uncommon forthe higher priced homes in an area(Quartiles 1 and 2) to take longer tosell than those in the lower quartiles.







Total Inventory

$ 467,000$ 527,311

$ 2,499,900$ 211,000



10Absorbed This Week


THIS WEEK



Median Age

2,938

4.83.2


8,001 - 10,000 sq ft


Inventory has been lightening latelyand the Market Action Index has beentrending up. These are mildly positiveindications for the market.

PRICEWe continue to see prices in this zipcode bouncing around this plateau.Look for a persistent up-shift in theMarket Action Index before we seeprices move from these levels.







Avg.DoM

Most expensive 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre4,282 5.0 5.0 5 24 1 3$ 676,9951 148

Upper-middle 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre3,197 4.5 3.5 6 24 1 1$ 524,9502 110

Lower-middle 25% of homes2,648 4.5 3.0 7 24 1 56,501 - 8,000

sq ft$ 444,9503 120


sq ft$ 375,0004 153


PRICE AND VALUE



INVENTORYInventory has been falling in recentweeks with 96 properties available thisweek. Note that declining inventoryalone does not signal a strengtheningmarket. Look to the Market ActionIndex to gauge whether buyer interestis falling with the available supply.


MARKET ACTION INDEX





DAYS ON MARKET








Total Inventory

$ 357,400$ 374,271

$ 575,000$ 185,000





THIS WEEK



Median Age

2,123

4.03.0


4,501 - 6500 sq ft


The Market Action Index has beenbasically flat recently, and days-on-market decreasing, there aren't strongsignals for the direction of the market.

PRICEAgain this week in this zip code we seea downward notch for prices. Pricinghas been weak in recent weeks andversus their absolute-high level. At thispoint, we will be looking for a persistentupward shift in the Market ActionIndex as a leading indicator for atrough in prices.







Avg.DoM


sq ft$ 475,0001 121


sq ft$ 389,9002 152


sq ft$ 339,9503 117

Least expensive 25% of homes1,615 3.0 3.0 8 54 1 1Less than

4,500 sq ft$ 289,0004 162

Despite recently falling prices, the priceper square foot has stayed reasonablyflat. This implies that there's a portionof the market being priced at apremium. You can investigate thiscondition in the quartile details.

PRICE AND VALUE



INVENTORYInventory has been steady around theselevels in recent weeks with 214properties currently available.


MARKET ACTION INDEX





DAYS ON MARKET








Total Inventory

$ 274,450$ 282,689

$ 775,000$ 109,000





THIS WEEK



Median Age

1,462

3.02.045

Altos Research Value Statistics

6,501 - 8,000 sq ft


With inventory, days-on-market, andthe Market Action Index all recentlyplateaued, the market isn't sendingstrong directional signal for the near-term outlook.

PRICEThe market for this zip code continuesits bounce again this week. We're along way from the market's high pointso watch the Market Action Index topredict how long this trend will last.







Avg.DoM


sq ft$ 377,5001 113

Upper-middle 25% of homes1,635 3.5 2.0 43 42 2 46,501 - 8,000

sq ft$ 292,1502 94


sq ft$ 250,0003 115

Least expensive 25% of homes1,110 3.0 2.0 50 43 2 56,501 - 8,000

sq ft$ 200,0004 122

This is a market where watching thevalue metrics (like price per squarefoot) can provide insight that you don'tget at first glance. Despite the fact thathome prices are rising fairlyconsistently, the price per square foot ofhomes listed is declining. Often this canbe attributed to new and remodeledhomes on the market. Buyers in thearea are paying more but also gettingmore for their money.

PRICE AND VALUE



INVENTORYInventory has been falling in recentweeks with 170 properties available thisweek. Note that declining inventoryalone does not signal a strengtheningmarket. Look to the Market ActionIndex to gauge whether buyer interestis falling with the available supply.


MARKET ACTION INDEX





DAYS ON MARKET








Total Inventory

$ 340,000$ 423,988

$ 3,499,000$ 175,000





THIS WEEK



Median Age

1,771

4.03.038

Altos Research Value Statistics

6,501 - 8,000 sq ft


The Market Action index has beentrending down lately, while days-on-market is climbing, providing mostlybearish signs for the market.

PRICEDespite this week's down tic, pricetrends in this zip code have generallybeen moving up lately. We are belowthe market's high point, and we'llinvestigate the Market Action Indexlater on to see if we expect this week'sblip to become a downward trend.







Avg.DoM

Most expensive 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre2,920 4.0 3.0 18 43 0 4$ 570,0001 187

Upper-middle 25% of homes2,017 4.0 3.0 19 43 5 36,501 - 8,000

sq ft$ 369,0002 129


sq ft$ 310,0003 126


sq ft$ 240,0004 150

In a market where prices are risingfairly consistently, price per square footis essentially flat. This often impliesthat new homes coming on the marketare pricier, and also larger than olderhomes. As a result the value one canbuy stays the same.

PRICE AND VALUE



INVENTORYInventory has been climbing lately with172 properties available this week. Notethat rising inventory alone does notsignal a weakening market. Look to theMarket Action Index to gauge whetherbuyer interest is keeping up withavailable supply.


MARKET ACTION INDEX





DAYS ON MARKET


About Altos Research CorporationAltos Research Corp. reports real-time analysis of the residential real estate market in local markets acrossthe country. All information contained herein is based on properties currently listed for sale and availablepublicly. When evaluating a particular property, make sure you use comparable sales data in addition tothe market trend information available in this report. The data presented in this report is accurate to thebest of our knowledge, but cannot be guaranteed as such. Use this report as one input in the real estatedecision making process, but do not rely on it for accuracy. Nothing in this report or any other AltosResearch publication is a recommendation to buy or to sell real estate. We recommend you work with alicensed real estate agent or broker.

Altos Research LLC Copyright 2005-2010. All Rights Reserved www.altosresearch.com


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chula vista market update - week of february 27, 2011

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