chuck maxey - school of business - california lutheran university ventura county demographics a...
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Chuck Maxey - School of Business - California Lutheran University
Ventura County Demographics
A Presentation to the Ventura County Leadership Academy
September 2005
Ventura County
• Ventura County’s our name.
• Quality of Life is our game.
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Ventura County, California
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Golf Courses
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County Line Beach
Wide-Open Freeways
But we also have…
Growing Traffic Problems
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Not all beaches are created equal!
Farm worker Poverty
Variations in School Effectiveness
In some sense, we are at a crossroads
• Where we don’t want to end up!
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source: US Census American Communty Survey
Ventura Compared to Other US Counties - 2003
• Language– 35th - Speak Language Other
Than English at Home (34.0%)
– 20th - Speak Spanish at Home (27.2%)
• Foreign Born– 37th @ 20.3%
• Education– 120th - % with Bachelor
Degree (28.2%)– 61st - @ with less than High
School Diploma (17.1%)
• Economic Well Being– 14th - Housing Value
of Those with Mortgage
– 55th - Median Family Income ($68,334)
– 166th - % of Children in Poverty (10.0%)
• Commute– 83rd - @26.0 Minutes
Some CA County Comparisons
2000 Census Data Marin Sonoma Orange VenturaPopulation 247,289 458614 2,846,289 753,197Median Age 41.4 37.5 33.4 34.2Education - College Degrees 51.30% 28.50% 30.80% 26.90%Median Household Income $71,715 $53.59 $59,028 $59,730Per Capita Income $44,266 $25,284 $25,481 $24,263Owner-Occupied housing Units 61.0% 60.3% 59.3% 65.3%Unemployment Rate 3.0% 4.3% 5.0% 5.1%Drive to Work 76.2% 87.3% 89.9% 90.1%Median travel Time to Work (min.) 30 21 24 21 Source: FreeDemographics.com
Source: California Quick Facts, US Census
Ventura County - Some Basics
• 2004 Population = 797,699
• Ranks 11th among California Counties
• Growth rate about 1.7% per year
• Land Area = 1845 Square Miles
• Persons per Square Mile = 408.2
• 400,000 Workers; 300,000 Jobs
VC - Ethnically Diverse
• Ethnicity (2000)– 56.8% White Non Hispanic
– 33.4% Hispanic or Latino Origin
– 9.8% Other
• 20.7% Foreign Born
• 33% Speak Language Other Than English at Home
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And Becoming More Diverse
Hispanics Become a Majority
Now - births 2006 - children entering kindergarten 2014 - students entering high school 2017 - new adults entering the labor force 2019 - people newly eligible to vote 2040 - people in middle age 2060 - seniors
VC Population Change Sources
Natural Increase vs. Net MigrationVentura County
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
people
Net Migration Natural Increase
VC Immigration Changes
Domestic Migration vs. Foreign ImmigrationVentura County
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
people
Domestic Migration Foreign Immigration
VC Educational Attainment
• 7.8% - K-9• 9.5% - 9-11• 19.7% HS Grad• Some College 25.5%• AA Degree 7.9%• BS/BA 17,4%• Grad Degree 9.5%
Why Educational Attainment Matters
Median Earnings - US Workers 25 and Older - 2003
$16,655$19,130
$26,518
$30,744$32,336
$42,030
$51,238
$86,221
$70,378
$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
< 9th grade Some HS HS Grad Some College AA Degree B's Degree Master'sDegree
Prof. Degree Doctorate
Family Economics
• 12.1% - Children in Poverty
• 31.1% Children in Low Income
• $6,022 Annual Cost of FT Child Care
• 26.3% Food Insecurity• 8,807 Reports of
Abuse
• 22% Students Who Are English Learners
• 31% Disadvantaged Student at 50th % on 4th grade reading
• 34% DS @ 50th % on 8th Grade Math
• 2.4% Annual Latino HS Drop Out rate
Chuck Maxey -- CaliforniaLutheran University
The Local Economy
VC Unemployment
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectUnemployment Rate
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
9.4%
5.0%
6.7%
6.2%
9.0%
4.5%
5.4%
4.9%
California
Ventura County
The Size of the County’s Economy
Nominal Gross County ProductVentura County
20.2121.1722.1724.3126.7631.89
35.4638.5241.0743.7646.50
49.6252.90
56.3059.91
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
$billions
Real Growth Rate of GCP
Real Gross County Product GrowthVentura County
5.2%
2.8%1.9%
7.8%9.4%
18.2%
8.5%
6.4%
3.5%3.7%3.4%3.8%4.0%3.9%3.9%
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Job Growth in VC and CA
Job GrowthVentura County and California
0.4%
2.5%
1.3%
0.4%
1.8%
3.8%4.1%
4.7%
1.6%
0.7%1.1%
0.4%
1.5%
-0.8%
1.1%
2.0%
2.8%3.0%3.4%
2.8%3.5%
0.6%
-1.0%-0.4%
0.9%
2.4%
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Ventura County
California
Chuck Maxey -- CaliforniaLutheran University
Thank You Amgen
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VC Jobs by Sector
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectEmployment Distribution (jobs)Ventura County - 2004
20,664
600
18,179
23,417
13,492
5,679
6,612
12,008
34,631
23,126
104,205
42,338
Agriculture
Mining
Construction
Durable Manufacturing
Non-Durable Manufacturing
Trans., Warehousing & Utilities
Information
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Finance, Ins.& Real Estate
Other Services
Government
Other Services include:•Personal & laundry• Repair and maintenance• Civic, Religious, andProfessional• Personal household
VC Salaries by Sector
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectAverage SalariesVentura County - 2004
$22,004
$58,487
$38,044
$53,149
$91,461
$47,101
$65,796
$21,533
$59,646
$35,666
$46,127
Agriculture
Mining
Construction
Durable Manufacturing
Non-Durable Manufacturing
Trans., Warehousing & Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Finance, Ins.& Real Estate
Other Services
Government
VC Job Growth
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectJob GrowthVentura County and California
-0.8%
0.4%
2.5%
1.3%
0.4%
1.8%
3.9%4.1%
4.7%
1.6%
0.7%1.0%
0.3%
-1.5%
3.4%2.8%
3.5%
-1.0%
0.6%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Ventura County
California
VC 5 Year Job Changes
UCSB Economic Forecast Project5-Year Job Growth by IndustryVentura County - 2004
17.9%
-37.9%23.7%
-10.1%1.7%
5.2%
-19.1%
27.3%
7.9%
43.3%11.5%
-3.6%
AgricultureMining
Construction
Durable ManufacturingNon-Durable Manufacturing
Trans., Warehousing & UtilitiesInformation
Wholesale TradeRetail Trade
Finance, Ins.& Real EstateOther Services
Government
California - Home Ownership 2003
• States range from 78.1% to 54.3%
• US average is 68.3%
• California ranks 48th• California’s rate is
58.9
Median House Prices 2003• no County Median Lower BoundUpper Bound• 1 San Mateo County, CA 664,180 649,495 678,865• 2 San Francisco County, CA 597,493 585,173 609,813• 3 Santa Clara County, CA 587,034 572,204 601,864• 4 Santa Cruz County, CA 575,097 540,041 610,153• 5 Westchester County, NY 502,822 475,415 530,229• 6 Santa Barbara County, CA461,593 403,331 519,855• 7 Alameda County, CA 456,643 445,324 467,962• 8 Contra Costa County, CA 430,312 416,366 444,258• 9 Sonoma County, CA 428,523 411,990 445,056• 10 Monterey County, CA 426,103 397,073 455,133• 11 San Luis Obispo County, CA 420,129 394,373 445,885• 12 Orange County, CA 418,712 409,482 427,942• 13 Fairfield County, CT 406,071 386,246 425,896• 14 Ventura County, CA 394,318 384,634 404,002• 15 San Diego County, CA 385,798 379,879 391,717
Single and Multi-Family Residential PermitsVentura County
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
thousands of permits
Multi-Family Single Family
Housing Prices in VC
Nominal Median Home PriceVentura County
206.6199.9205.7219.3233.8255.0295.1322.6
372.4462.5
593.1682.2
763.8844.6
935.1
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
$ thousands
Housing Permits in 3 Counties
Housing Unit Permits per 1,000 peopleComparison
1.4 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.33.1
4.0 3.8 3.4 3.33.7
3.2 3.23.8
4.6 4.35.1
5.7
7.3 7.0 6.6
8.17.6
8.88.2 7.8
7.3 6.9 6.9
2.0
3.53.1 3.3 3.2
4.3
6.05.3
4.2
3.2
4.6
3.2
4.3 4.1
3.1 2.9
1993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
Santa Barbara County San Luis Obispo County Ventura County
Home Prices - VC and CA
Nominal Median Home PriceCalifornia and Ventura
185.0178.2177.3186.5200.1217.5241.4262.4316.1
372.7452.3
514.2565.0
616.6670.1
206.6199.9205.7219.3233.8255.0295.1322.6
372.4462.5
593.1682.2
763.8844.6
935.1
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
$ thousands
Ventura County - lineCalifornia - bar
Median Priced Home?
Affordability: VC and CA
Affordability IndexComparison
0%5%
10%
15%20%25%30%35%
40%45%50%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Ventura County California
Chuck Maxey -- CaliforniaLutheran University
Is There a Housing Bubble?
Who saysYes?
Who SaysNo?
Chuck Maxey -- CaliforniaLutheran University
The Pessimist? ÒYes, a bubble exists. Ó
Fundamental demand isgiving way toinvestment buying.
Bubbles rarely burst,but they do deflate.
2006 or 2007 could seeproblems.
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Chuck Maxey -- CaliforniaLutheran University
The Optimist? ÒCalifornia home price gains are
justified by real events.Ó
ÒAlmost surely the growth rate ofVentura CountyÕs home prices willdecrease, but home prices willremain firm.Ó
Wealthy retirees and babyboomers are changing the relevantdemographics.
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One More Topic:
Civic Engagement
Voter Registration 2004
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
CA
VC
CA 68.9% 43.2% 35.5% 4.8% 16.4%
VC 72.9% 37.8% 42.2% 4.9% 15.1%
Registered Democrat Republican Other Independent
Source: California Abstract
VC Voter Participation - March 2004
• Ventura Voting– 47.0% of Registered
– 34.1% of Eligible
• California Voting– 44.3% of Registered
– 30.5% of Eligible
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Chuck Maxey -- CaliforniaLutheran University
Some On-Line Resources Government Performance Project: Grading the
States. http://results.gpponline.org Southern California Association of Governments:
State of the Region 2004 www.scag.ca.gov www.venturaprofile.org - An information cite for
Ventura County hosted by CLU The UCSB Economic Forecast Project www.ucsb-
efp.com The California Forecast www.californiaforecast.com
Thank You!