Choosing the Electric Avenue - Webinar Presentation

C H O O S I N G E L E C T R I C AV E N U E
U N L O C K I N G S AV I N G S , E M I S S I O N S R E D U C T I O N S , A N D C O M M U N I T Y B E N E F I T S O F E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S
John Farrell Director of Energy DemocracyJune 21, 2017

That was like a roller coaster

6 R E A S O N S W E N E E D T O A C T N O W

1S U R G I N G S A L E SQ
uart
erly
EV
Sal
es (t
hous
and
s)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Each quarter in 2016 has seen higher EV sales than the same quarter in any prior year
Source: Inside EVs / UCS

1EV
Sal
es (m
illio
ns)
0
5
10
15
20
2010 2020 2030 2040
Bloomberg Electric Vehicle Initiative (target)
EIA Navigant
2016 actual
U . S . E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S A L E S F O R E C A S T S
Annual sales, plug-in hybrid and all-electric

E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E O W N E R S H I P 1 0 - Y E A R S AV I N G S
$0
$3,000
$6,000
$9,000
$12,000
$15,000
2017 Nissan Leaf v. Nissan Versa
10-year sched. maintenance savings
10-year fuel cost savings (est.)Battery replacement cost (est.)
Does not include typical repairs unique to gasoline cars, including
timing belts, water pumps, etc.
2

W H AT C A R H A S T H E H I G H E S T C U S T O M E R S AT I S FA C T I O N ?
P O L L T I M E !

A. Porsche Carrera
B. Tesla Model S
C. BMW 328i
D. Volkswagen Beetle
E. Ford Focus

3H I G H C U S T O M E R S AT I S FA C T I O N F O R E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S
Source: Inside EVs, from Consumer Reports: http://bit.ly/2n7zENP
Tesla Model S
Chevrolet Volt
Honda Accord Hybrid
Ford Fusion Energi
Toyota Prius
Nissan Leaf
0 25 50 75 100
7782
848585
98
Percentage of owners who would definitely purchase the same vehicle again
Tesla Model S
Audi A8
Lexus LS
Mercedes-Benz S-Class
Hyundai Equus
Porsche Panamera
0 25 50 75 100
80808181
8498
Hybrids / Electric Vehicles
Large Luxury Cars
http://bit.ly/2n7zENP

Perc
ent o
f dai
ly tr
avel
thi
s d
ista
nce
0%
10%
20%
30%
< 1 mile 1-5 miles 6-15 miles 16-30 miles 31-45 miles 46-60 miles 61-120 miles 121+ miles
S U F F I C I E N T R A N G E N O W
The Nissan Leafs 107-mile
range is enough for 83% of daily automobile use
Source: 2009 FHWA NHTS
Daily vehicle miles traveled
4

B E T T E R R A N G E C O M I N G 5

6U . S . E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S A L E S F O R E C A S T SEV
Bat
tery
Cap
acity
(meg
awat
ts)
0
30,000
60,000
90,000
120,000
150,000
2010 2020 2030 2040
Bloomberg Electric Vehicle Initiative (target)
EIA Navigant
Plug-in hybrid and all-electric
Batteries of new EVs equal 30,000 MW of capacity (on
a Level 2 charger)
Typical utility 15-year resource plan

C O S T O F I N A C T I O N ?

N E T B E N E F I T S O F N O T H I N G
Source: California Transportation Electrification Assessment
(October 2014)

Perc
ent i
ncre
ase
in p
eak
ener
gy
dem
and
0
3
6
9
12
Minnesota California Texas New York Hawaii
9%
3.4%
4.9%
11.1%
3%
P R E S S U R E O N P E A KUnmanaged Electric Vehicle Charging Impacts Peak Demand
Source: Rocky Mountain Institute
EVs23%
Percent of Vehicle Fleet

2 E A S Y W AY S T O A C T

W H I C H D E V I C E C A N D O T H E M O S T T O I N C R E A S E G R I D B E N E F I T S O F E V S ?
P O L L T I M E !

I N C E N T I V I Z E B E N E F I C I A L C H A R G I N G T I M E S
1

E V C H A R G I N G R AT E S
X C E L E N E R G Y
0
10
20
30
40
50
Hour of the day
Regular rateSummer surcharge D A K O TA
E L E C T R I C ( B A S I C )
Hour of the day
cents per kilowatt-hour cents per kilowatt-hour
charging not available
D A K O TA E L E C T R I C
( T O U )
Hour of the day
cents per kilowatt-hour
*Off-peak rates also apply to weekends and holidays
1 6 12 6 12 1 6 12 6 12 1 6 12 6 12

E V C H A R G I N G R AT E S
*Off-peak rates also apply to weekends and holidays
S A C R A M E N T O M U N I C I PA L

E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E C H A R G I N G TA R I F F S
Source: Northeast Group, ILSR
Adopted June 2015 or earlier
Under consideration

Level 2 Charging
DC Quick Charging
Level 1 Charging
Source: fleetcarma
120-volt ~ 1.3 kilowatts
240-volt ~ 3.3 - 6.6 kilowatts
440-volt ~ 50 kilowatts
2D E P L O Y I N F R A S T R U C T U R E

L E V E L 2 V E R S U S L E V E L 1
Nissan Leaf 30 kWh
Tesla Model S 60 kWh
Tesla Model S 100 kWh
0 20 40 60 80
15 hours
9 hours
4.5 hours
Level 2 charging time (6.6 kW)
Additional time to charge at Level 1 (1.3 kW)
23 hours
46 hours
77 hours

U T I L I T Y F I N A N C E D ?
For every 15 new customers, the utility would recoup about $24,000 in new revenue over the first ten years of vehicle ownership, enough to pay for 15 home Level 2
chargers and 1 public charger.+ 10 years$24,000
=15 EV home chargers
1 public charger
Revenue from electricity sales to 15 electric vehicles over 10 years

6 B I G B E N E F I T S O F A C T I O N

0
3
6
9
12
Minnesota California Texas New York Hawaii
1.3%0.6%0.9%
1.3%0.5%
9%
3.4%
4.9%
11.1%
3%
Uncontrolled Controlled
T H E T I M E I S R I G H TManaged Electric Vehicle Charging Lowers Peak Demand Impact Several States
Source: Rocky Mountain Institute
1

W H AT A R E T H E AV E R A G E A N N U A L S AV I N G S O F C H A R G I N G O F F -P E A K ?
P O L L T I M E !
Compared to average fuel economy gasoline car; off-peak assumed to be 3 per kilowatt-hour

W H AT A R E T H E AV E R A G E A N N U A L S AV I N G S O F C H A R G I N G O F F -P E A K ?
P O L L T I M E !
A. $100
B. $500
C. $1,000
D. $5,000
E. $1 million
Compared to average fuel economy gasoline car; off-peak assumed to be 3 per kilowatt-hour

0
300
600
900
1200
1500
$980
$1,470
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
Standard electricity rates Off-peak electricity rates
15,000 miles 10,000 miles 15,000 miles 10,000 miles
$680
$1,000
O F F - P E A K C H A R G I N G I N C R E A S E S S AV I N G S O F D R I V I N G E L E C T R I C
Annual average savings compared to driving on gasoline, U.S. states
2

P R O J E C T E D A N N U A L F U E L S AV I N G S E L E C T R I C V. G A S C A R S
Driving 15,000 miles per year, charging on off-peak rates
$1,200 to $1,400
$1,400 to $1,600
$1,600 to $1,920
2

E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S C A N P R O V I D E G R I D S E R V I C E S
-7 kW
-5 kW
-3 kW
-1 kW
1 kW
3 kW
5 kW
7 kW
0 kW
Charging
Dischargingkilowatts
6.6 kW ancillary services bid
13.2 kW ancillary
services bid
Car with charge-only capability
Car with vehicle-to-grid capability
3

0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Percent at homePercent at work
R E A D Y T O C H A R G E
EV location source: http://bit.ly/2hlRn3u
Most electric vehicles are idle when the grid needs them
Hour of the day
41%
31%
3
http://bit.ly/2hlRn3u

0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Percent at homePercent at workElectricity demand w/o EVsElectricity demand w EVs
R E A D Y T O C H A R G E
Hourly load (ScottMadden): http://bit.ly/2hm527XEV location source: http://bit.ly/2hlRn3u
Charging EVs could solve ramping issues by absorbing daytime solar
energy production
Hour of the day
3
1.5 million cars
http://bit.ly/2hm527Xhttp://bit.ly/2hlRn3u

H O W M A N Y E V S C A N C H A R G E W I T H O V E R N I G H T C A PA C I T Y I N T H E M I D W E S T G R I D R E G I O N ?
P O L L T I M E !

A. 50,000
B. 150,000
C. 1.5 million
D. 7.5 million
E. 22.5 million
P O L L T I M E !
H O W M A N Y E V S C A N C H A R G E W I T H O V E R N I G H T C A PA C I T Y I N T H E M I D W E S T G R I D R E G I O N ?

Hour of the day (CDT)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Wind output Chosen day Year before
Low overnight demand
July 31, 2016
A M P L E O V E R N I G H T P O W E R S U P P LY
0
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
50,000
megawatt-hours
100,000
150,000Midwest Region daily demand curve
4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
July 31, 2016
0
50,000
megawatt-hours
100,000
Extra wind power at night
4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
July 31, 2016
0
50,000
megawatt-hours
100,000
Plenty of available capacity
Extra wind power at night
50,000 MWh = enough to charge 7.5 million cars
4

5E L E C T R I C B U S H E A LT H B E N E F I T S
97% reduction in particulates 140 tons less of CO2 per year
$150,000 annual savings
Credit: Proterra

A marriage of sexy electrics: Over 1 in 10 EV owners also has rooftop solar
https://ilsr.org/report-electric-vehicles/
6

As solar grows, it reduces demand for grid power (2).
1 2
6

As solar grows, it reduces demand for grid power (2). If it grows further, solar can power the entire local grid and backfeed to
the larger grid (3).
1 2 3

As solar grows, it reduces demand for grid power (2). If it grows further, solar can power the entire local grid and backfeed to the larger grid (3). Adding electric vehicles (4) can
absorb this excess local production.
1 2 3 4

S U M M A R Y: A C T N O W
6 Reasons to act
6 Benefits of action
Easy ways to act2
10k 98 83% 2018 30 GW
7.5m

Electric car adoption will happen faster than we expect

T H A N K Y O U !@johnffarrell
www.ilsr.org
C H A N G I N G T H E R U L E S
P R O V I D I N G T O O L S
1 0 0 % R E N E WA B L E L O C A L E C O N O M Y
H U M A N S C A L E
L O C A L O W N E R S H I P
D E M O C R AT I C A U T H O R I T Y
I L L U S T R AT I N G T H E V I S I O N

Choosing the Electric Avenue - Webinar Presentation

Automotive