choosing the electric avenue - webinar presentation

C H O O S I N G E L E C T R I C AV E N U E

U N L O C K I N G S AV I N G S , E M I S S I O N S R E D U C T I O N S , A N D C O M M U N I T Y B E N E F I T S O F E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S

John Farrell Director of Energy DemocracyJune 21, 2017

That was like a roller coaster

6 R E A S O N S W E N E E D T O A C T N O W

1S U R G I N G S A L E SQ

uart

erly

EV

Sal

es (t

hous

and

s)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Each quarter in 2016 has seen higher EV sales than the same quarter in any prior year

Source: Inside EVs / UCS

1EV

Sal

es (m

illio

ns)

0

5

10

15

20

2010 2020 2030 2040

Bloomberg Electric Vehicle Initiative (target)

EIA Navigant

2016 actual

U . S . E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S A L E S F O R E C A S T S

Annual sales, plug-in hybrid and all-electric

E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E O W N E R S H I P 1 0 - Y E A R S AV I N G S

$0

$3,000

$6,000

$9,000

$12,000

$15,000

2017 Nissan Leaf v. Nissan Versa

10-year sched. maintenance savings

10-year fuel cost savings (est.)Battery replacement cost (est.)

Does not include typical repairs unique to gasoline cars, including

timing belts, water pumps, etc.

2

W H AT C A R H A S T H E H I G H E S T C U S T O M E R S AT I S FA C T I O N ?

P O L L T I M E !

A. Porsche Carrera

B. Tesla Model S

C. BMW 328i

D. Volkswagen Beetle

E. Ford Focus

3H I G H C U S T O M E R S AT I S FA C T I O N F O R E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S

Source: Inside EVs, from Consumer Reports: http://bit.ly/2n7zENP

Tesla Model S

Chevrolet Volt

Honda Accord Hybrid

Ford Fusion Energi

Toyota Prius

Nissan Leaf

0 25 50 75 100

7782

848585

98

Percentage of owners who would definitely purchase the same vehicle again

Tesla Model S

Audi A8

Lexus LS

Mercedes-Benz S-Class

Hyundai Equus

Porsche Panamera

0 25 50 75 100

80808181

8498

Hybrids / Electric Vehicles

Large Luxury Cars

http://bit.ly/2n7zENP

Perc

ent o

f dai

ly tr

avel

thi

s d

ista

nce

0%

10%

20%

30%

< 1 mile 1-5 miles 6-15 miles 16-30 miles 31-45 miles 46-60 miles 61-120 miles 121+ miles

S U F F I C I E N T R A N G E N O W

The Nissan Leafs 107-mile

range is enough for 83% of daily automobile use

Source: 2009 FHWA NHTS

Daily vehicle miles traveled

4

B E T T E R R A N G E C O M I N G 5

6U . S . E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S A L E S F O R E C A S T SEV

Bat

tery

Cap

acity

(meg

awat

ts)

0

30,000

60,000

90,000

120,000

150,000

2010 2020 2030 2040

Bloomberg Electric Vehicle Initiative (target)

EIA Navigant

Plug-in hybrid and all-electric

Batteries of new EVs equal 30,000 MW of capacity (on

a Level 2 charger)

Typical utility 15-year resource plan

C O S T O F I N A C T I O N ?

N E T B E N E F I T S O F N O T H I N G

Source: California Transportation Electrification Assessment

(October 2014)

Perc

ent i

ncre

ase

in p

eak

ener

gy

dem

and

0

3

6

9

12

Minnesota California Texas New York Hawaii

9%

3.4%

4.9%

11.1%

3%

P R E S S U R E O N P E A KUnmanaged Electric Vehicle Charging Impacts Peak Demand

Source: Rocky Mountain Institute

EVs23%

Percent of Vehicle Fleet

2 E A S Y W AY S T O A C T

W H I C H D E V I C E C A N D O T H E M O S T T O I N C R E A S E G R I D B E N E F I T S O F E V S ?

P O L L T I M E !

A

B

C

I N C E N T I V I Z E B E N E F I C I A L C H A R G I N G T I M E S

1

E V C H A R G I N G R AT E S

X C E L E N E R G Y

0

10

20

30

40

50

Hour of the day

Regular rateSummer surcharge D A K O TA

E L E C T R I C ( B A S I C )

Hour of the day

cents per kilowatt-hour cents per kilowatt-hour

charging not available

D A K O TA E L E C T R I C

( T O U )

Hour of the day

cents per kilowatt-hour

*Off-peak rates also apply to weekends and holidays

1 6 12 6 12 1 6 12 6 12 1 6 12 6 12

E V C H A R G I N G R AT E S

*Off-peak rates also apply to weekends and holidays

S A C R A M E N T O M U N I C I PA L

E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E C H A R G I N G TA R I F F S

Source: Northeast Group, ILSR

Adopted June 2015 or earlier

Under consideration

Level 2 Charging

DC Quick Charging

Level 1 Charging

Source: fleetcarma

120-volt ~ 1.3 kilowatts

240-volt ~ 3.3 - 6.6 kilowatts

440-volt ~ 50 kilowatts

2D E P L O Y I N F R A S T R U C T U R E

L E V E L 2 V E R S U S L E V E L 1

Nissan Leaf 30 kWh

Tesla Model S 60 kWh

Tesla Model S 100 kWh

0 20 40 60 80

15 hours

9 hours

4.5 hours

Level 2 charging time (6.6 kW)

Additional time to charge at Level 1 (1.3 kW)

23 hours

46 hours

77 hours

U T I L I T Y F I N A N C E D ?

For every 15 new customers, the utility would recoup about $24,000 in new revenue over the first ten years of vehicle ownership, enough to pay for 15 home Level 2

chargers and 1 public charger.+ 10 years$24,000

=15 EV home chargers

1 public charger

Revenue from electricity sales to 15 electric vehicles over 10 years

6 B I G B E N E F I T S O F A C T I O N

0

3

6

9

12

Minnesota California Texas New York Hawaii

1.3%0.6%0.9%

1.3%0.5%

9%

3.4%

4.9%

11.1%

3%

Uncontrolled Controlled

T H E T I M E I S R I G H TManaged Electric Vehicle Charging Lowers Peak Demand Impact Several States

Source: Rocky Mountain Institute

1

W H AT A R E T H E AV E R A G E A N N U A L S AV I N G S O F C H A R G I N G O F F -P E A K ?

P O L L T I M E !

Compared to average fuel economy gasoline car; off-peak assumed to be 3 per kilowatt-hour

W H AT A R E T H E AV E R A G E A N N U A L S AV I N G S O F C H A R G I N G O F F -P E A K ?

P O L L T I M E !

A. $100

B. $500

C. $1,000

D. $5,000

E. $1 million

Compared to average fuel economy gasoline car; off-peak assumed to be 3 per kilowatt-hour

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

$980

$1,470

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

Standard electricity rates Off-peak electricity rates

15,000 miles 10,000 miles 15,000 miles 10,000 miles

$680

$1,000

O F F - P E A K C H A R G I N G I N C R E A S E S S AV I N G S O F D R I V I N G E L E C T R I C

Annual average savings compared to driving on gasoline, U.S. states

2

P R O J E C T E D A N N U A L F U E L S AV I N G S E L E C T R I C V. G A S C A R S

Driving 15,000 miles per year, charging on off-peak rates

$1,200 to $1,400

$1,400 to $1,600

$1,600 to $1,920

2

E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S C A N P R O V I D E G R I D S E R V I C E S

-7 kW

-5 kW

-3 kW

-1 kW

1 kW

3 kW

5 kW

7 kW

0 kW

Charging

Dischargingkilowatts

6.6 kW ancillary services bid

13.2 kW ancillary

services bid

Car with charge-only capability

Car with vehicle-to-grid capability

3

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Percent at homePercent at work

R E A D Y T O C H A R G E

EV location source: http://bit.ly/2hlRn3u

Most electric vehicles are idle when the grid needs them

Hour of the day

41%

31%

3

http://bit.ly/2hlRn3u

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Percent at homePercent at workElectricity demand w/o EVsElectricity demand w EVs

R E A D Y T O C H A R G E

Hourly load (ScottMadden): http://bit.ly/2hm527XEV location source: http://bit.ly/2hlRn3u

Charging EVs could solve ramping issues by absorbing daytime solar

energy production

Hour of the day

3

1.5 million cars

http://bit.ly/2hm527Xhttp://bit.ly/2hlRn3u

H O W M A N Y E V S C A N C H A R G E W I T H O V E R N I G H T C A PA C I T Y I N T H E M I D W E S T G R I D R E G I O N ?

P O L L T I M E !

A. 50,000

B. 150,000

C. 1.5 million

D. 7.5 million

E. 22.5 million

P O L L T I M E !

H O W M A N Y E V S C A N C H A R G E W I T H O V E R N I G H T C A PA C I T Y I N T H E M I D W E S T G R I D R E G I O N ?

Hour of the day (CDT)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Wind output Chosen day Ye