Choosing the Electric Avenue - Webinar Presentation

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  • C H O O S I N G E L E C T R I C AV E N U E

    U N L O C K I N G S AV I N G S , E M I S S I O N S R E D U C T I O N S , A N D C O M M U N I T Y B E N E F I T S O F E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S

    John Farrell Director of Energy DemocracyJune 21, 2017

  • That was like a roller coaster

  • 6 R E A S O N S W E N E E D T O A C T N O W

  • 1S U R G I N G S A L E SQ

    uart

    erly

    EV

    Sal

    es (t

    hous

    and

    s)

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

    Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

    Each quarter in 2016 has seen higher EV sales than the same quarter in any prior year

    Source: Inside EVs / UCS

  • 1EV

    Sal

    es (m

    illio

    ns)

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    2010 2020 2030 2040

    Bloomberg Electric Vehicle Initiative (target)

    EIA Navigant

    2016 actual

    U . S . E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S A L E S F O R E C A S T S

    Annual sales, plug-in hybrid and all-electric

  • E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E O W N E R S H I P 1 0 - Y E A R S AV I N G S

    $0

    $3,000

    $6,000

    $9,000

    $12,000

    $15,000

    2017 Nissan Leaf v. Nissan Versa

    10-year sched. maintenance savings

    10-year fuel cost savings (est.)Battery replacement cost (est.)

    Does not include typical repairs unique to gasoline cars, including

    timing belts, water pumps, etc.

    2

  • W H AT C A R H A S T H E H I G H E S T C U S T O M E R S AT I S FA C T I O N ?

    P O L L T I M E !

  • A. Porsche Carrera

    B. Tesla Model S

    C. BMW 328i

    D. Volkswagen Beetle

    E. Ford Focus

  • 3H I G H C U S T O M E R S AT I S FA C T I O N F O R E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S

    Source: Inside EVs, from Consumer Reports: http://bit.ly/2n7zENP

    Tesla Model S

    Chevrolet Volt

    Honda Accord Hybrid

    Ford Fusion Energi

    Toyota Prius

    Nissan Leaf

    0 25 50 75 100

    7782

    848585

    98

    Percentage of owners who would definitely purchase the same vehicle again

    Tesla Model S

    Audi A8

    Lexus LS

    Mercedes-Benz S-Class

    Hyundai Equus

    Porsche Panamera

    0 25 50 75 100

    80808181

    8498

    Hybrids / Electric Vehicles

    Large Luxury Cars

    http://bit.ly/2n7zENP

  • Perc

    ent o

    f dai

    ly tr

    avel

    thi

    s d

    ista

    nce

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    < 1 mile 1-5 miles 6-15 miles 16-30 miles 31-45 miles 46-60 miles 61-120 miles 121+ miles

    S U F F I C I E N T R A N G E N O W

    The Nissan Leafs 107-mile

    range is enough for 83% of daily automobile use

    Source: 2009 FHWA NHTS

    Daily vehicle miles traveled

    4

  • B E T T E R R A N G E C O M I N G 5

  • 6U . S . E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S A L E S F O R E C A S T SEV

    Bat

    tery

    Cap

    acity

    (meg

    awat

    ts)

    0

    30,000

    60,000

    90,000

    120,000

    150,000

    2010 2020 2030 2040

    Bloomberg Electric Vehicle Initiative (target)

    EIA Navigant

    Plug-in hybrid and all-electric

    Batteries of new EVs equal 30,000 MW of capacity (on

    a Level 2 charger)

    Typical utility 15-year resource plan

  • C O S T O F I N A C T I O N ?

  • N E T B E N E F I T S O F N O T H I N G

    Source: California Transportation Electrification Assessment

    (October 2014)

  • Perc

    ent i

    ncre

    ase

    in p

    eak

    ener

    gy

    dem

    and

    0

    3

    6

    9

    12

    Minnesota California Texas New York Hawaii

    9%

    3.4%

    4.9%

    11.1%

    3%

    P R E S S U R E O N P E A KUnmanaged Electric Vehicle Charging Impacts Peak Demand

    Source: Rocky Mountain Institute

    EVs23%

    Percent of Vehicle Fleet

  • 2 E A S Y W AY S T O A C T

  • W H I C H D E V I C E C A N D O T H E M O S T T O I N C R E A S E G R I D B E N E F I T S O F E V S ?

    P O L L T I M E !

  • A

    B

    C

  • I N C E N T I V I Z E B E N E F I C I A L C H A R G I N G T I M E S

    1

  • E V C H A R G I N G R AT E S

    X C E L E N E R G Y

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    Hour of the day

    Regular rateSummer surcharge D A K O TA

    E L E C T R I C ( B A S I C )

    Hour of the day

    cents per kilowatt-hour cents per kilowatt-hour

    charging not available

    D A K O TA E L E C T R I C

    ( T O U )

    Hour of the day

    cents per kilowatt-hour

    *Off-peak rates also apply to weekends and holidays

    1 6 12 6 12 1 6 12 6 12 1 6 12 6 12

  • E V C H A R G I N G R AT E S

    *Off-peak rates also apply to weekends and holidays

    S A C R A M E N T O M U N I C I PA L

  • E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E C H A R G I N G TA R I F F S

    Source: Northeast Group, ILSR

    Adopted June 2015 or earlier

    Under consideration

  • Level 2 Charging

    DC Quick Charging

    Level 1 Charging

    Source: fleetcarma

    120-volt ~ 1.3 kilowatts

    240-volt ~ 3.3 - 6.6 kilowatts

    440-volt ~ 50 kilowatts

    2D E P L O Y I N F R A S T R U C T U R E

  • L E V E L 2 V E R S U S L E V E L 1

    Nissan Leaf 30 kWh

    Tesla Model S 60 kWh

    Tesla Model S 100 kWh

    0 20 40 60 80

    15 hours

    9 hours

    4.5 hours

    Level 2 charging time (6.6 kW)

    Additional time to charge at Level 1 (1.3 kW)

    23 hours

    46 hours

    77 hours

  • U T I L I T Y F I N A N C E D ?

    For every 15 new customers, the utility would recoup about $24,000 in new revenue over the first ten years of vehicle ownership, enough to pay for 15 home Level 2

    chargers and 1 public charger.+ 10 years$24,000

    =15 EV home chargers

    1 public charger

    Revenue from electricity sales to 15 electric vehicles over 10 years

  • 6 B I G B E N E F I T S O F A C T I O N

  • 0

    3

    6

    9

    12

    Minnesota California Texas New York Hawaii

    1.3%0.6%0.9%

    1.3%0.5%

    9%

    3.4%

    4.9%

    11.1%

    3%

    Uncontrolled Controlled

    T H E T I M E I S R I G H TManaged Electric Vehicle Charging Lowers Peak Demand Impact Several States

    Source: Rocky Mountain Institute

    1

  • W H AT A R E T H E AV E R A G E A N N U A L S AV I N G S O F C H A R G I N G O F F -P E A K ?

    P O L L T I M E !

    Compared to average fuel economy gasoline car; off-peak assumed to be 3 per kilowatt-hour

  • W H AT A R E T H E AV E R A G E A N N U A L S AV I N G S O F C H A R G I N G O F F -P E A K ?

    P O L L T I M E !

    A. $100

    B. $500

    C. $1,000

    D. $5,000

    E. $1 million

    Compared to average fuel economy gasoline car; off-peak assumed to be 3 per kilowatt-hour

  • 0

    300

    600

    900

    1200

    1500

    $980

    $1,470

    0

    300

    600

    900

    1200

    1500

    Standard electricity rates Off-peak electricity rates

    15,000 miles 10,000 miles 15,000 miles 10,000 miles

    $680

    $1,000

    O F F - P E A K C H A R G I N G I N C R E A S E S S AV I N G S O F D R I V I N G E L E C T R I C

    Annual average savings compared to driving on gasoline, U.S. states

    2

  • P R O J E C T E D A N N U A L F U E L S AV I N G S E L E C T R I C V. G A S C A R S

    Driving 15,000 miles per year, charging on off-peak rates

    $1,200 to $1,400

    $1,400 to $1,600

    $1,600 to $1,920

    2

  • E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S C A N P R O V I D E G R I D S E R V I C E S

    -7 kW

    -5 kW

    -3 kW

    -1 kW

    1 kW

    3 kW

    5 kW

    7 kW

    0 kW

    Charging

    Dischargingkilowatts

    6.6 kW ancillary services bid

    13.2 kW ancillary

    services bid

    Car with charge-only capability

    Car with vehicle-to-grid capability

    3

  • 0%

    25%

    50%

    75%

    100%

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

    Percent at homePercent at work

    R E A D Y T O C H A R G E

    EV location source: http://bit.ly/2hlRn3u

    Most electric vehicles are idle when the grid needs them

    Hour of the day

    41%

    31%

    3

    http://bit.ly/2hlRn3u

  • 0%

    25%

    50%

    75%

    100%

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

    Percent at homePercent at workElectricity demand w/o EVsElectricity demand w EVs

    R E A D Y T O C H A R G E

    Hourly load (ScottMadden): http://bit.ly/2hm527XEV location source: http://bit.ly/2hlRn3u

    Charging EVs could solve ramping issues by absorbing daytime solar

    energy production

    Hour of the day

    3

    1.5 million cars

    http://bit.ly/2hm527Xhttp://bit.ly/2hlRn3u

  • H O W M A N Y E V S C A N C H A R G E W I T H O V E R N I G H T C A PA C I T Y I N T H E M I D W E S T G R I D R E G I O N ?

    P O L L T I M E !

  • A. 50,000

    B. 150,000

    C. 1.5 million

    D. 7.5 million

    E. 22.5 million

    P O L L T I M E !

    H O W M A N Y E V S C A N C H A R G E W I T H O V E R N I G H T C A PA C I T Y I N T H E M I D W E S T G R I D R E G I O N ?

  • Hour of the day (CDT)

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

    Wind output Chosen day Year before

    Low overnight demand

    July 31, 2016

    A M P L E O V E R N I G H T P O W E R S U P P LY

    0

    Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

    50,000

    megawatt-hours

    100,000

    150,000Midwest Region daily demand curve

    4

  • Hour of the day (CDT)

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

    Wind output Chosen day Year before

    Low overnight demand

    July 31, 2016

    A M P L E O V E R N I G H T P O W E R S U P P LY

    0

    Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

    50,000

    megawatt-hours

    100,000

    150,000Midwest Region daily demand curve

    Extra wind power at night

    4

  • Hour of the day (CDT)

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

    Wind output Chosen day Year before

    Low overnight demand

    July 31, 2016

    A M P L E O V E R N I G H T P O W E R S U P P LY

    0

    Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

    50,000

    megawatt-hours

    100,000

    150,000Midwest Region daily demand curve

    Plenty of available capacity

    Extra wind power at night

    50,000 MWh = enough to charge 7.5 million cars

    4

  • 5E L E C T R I C B U S H E A LT H B E N E F I T S

    97% reduction in particulates 140 tons less of CO2 per year

    $150,000 annual savings

    Credit: Proterra

  • A marriage of sexy electrics: Over 1 in 10 EV owners also has rooftop solar

    https://ilsr.org/report-electric-vehicles/

    6

  • As solar grows, it reduces demand for grid power (2).

    1 2

    6

  • As solar grows, it reduces demand for grid power (2). If it grows further, solar can power the entire local grid and backfeed to

    the larger grid (3).

    1 2 3

  • As solar grows, it reduces demand for grid power (2). If it grows further, solar can power the entire local grid and backfeed to the larger grid (3). Adding electric vehicles (4) can

    absorb this excess local production.

    1 2 3 4

  • S U M M A R Y: A C T N O W

    6 Reasons to act

    6 Benefits of action

    Easy ways to act2

    10k 98 83% 2018 30 GW

    7.5m

  • Electric car adoption will happen faster than we expect

  • T H A N K Y O U !@johnffarrell

    www.ilsr.org

    C H A N G I N G T H E R U L E S

    P R O V I D I N G T O O L S

    1 0 0 % R E N E WA B L E L O C A L E C O N O M Y

    H U M A N S C A L E

    L O C A L O W N E R S H I P

    D E M O C R AT I C A U T H O R I T Y

    I L L U S T R AT I N G T H E V I S I O N