choosing the electric avenue - webinar presentation

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  • C H O O S I N G E L E C T R I C AV E N U E

    U N L O C K I N G S AV I N G S , E M I S S I O N S R E D U C T I O N S , A N D C O M M U N I T Y B E N E F I T S O F E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S

    John Farrell Director of Energy DemocracyJune 21, 2017

  • That was like a roller coaster

  • 6 R E A S O N S W E N E E D T O A C T N O W

  • 1S U R G I N G S A L E SQ

    uart

    erly

    EV

    Sal

    es (t

    hous

    and

    s)

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

    Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

    Each quarter in 2016 has seen higher EV sales than the same quarter in any prior year

    Source: Inside EVs / UCS

  • 1EV

    Sal

    es (m

    illio

    ns)

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    2010 2020 2030 2040

    Bloomberg Electric Vehicle Initiative (target)

    EIA Navigant

    2016 actual

    U . S . E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S A L E S F O R E C A S T S

    Annual sales, plug-in hybrid and all-electric

  • E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E O W N E R S H I P 1 0 - Y E A R S AV I N G S

    $0

    $3,000

    $6,000

    $9,000

    $12,000

    $15,000

    2017 Nissan Leaf v. Nissan Versa

    10-year sched. maintenance savings

    10-year fuel cost savings (est.)Battery replacement cost (est.)

    Does not include typical repairs unique to gasoline cars, including

    timing belts, water pumps, etc.

    2

  • W H AT C A R H A S T H E H I G H E S T C U S T O M E R S AT I S FA C T I O N ?

    P O L L T I M E !

  • A. Porsche Carrera

    B. Tesla Model S

    C. BMW 328i

    D. Volkswagen Beetle

    E. Ford Focus

  • 3H I G H C U S T O M E R S AT I S FA C T I O N F O R E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S

    Source: Inside EVs, from Consumer Reports: http://bit.ly/2n7zENP

    Tesla Model S

    Chevrolet Volt

    Honda Accord Hybrid

    Ford Fusion Energi

    Toyota Prius

    Nissan Leaf

    0 25 50 75 100

    7782

    848585

    98

    Percentage of owners who would definitely purchase the same vehicle again

    Tesla Model S

    Audi A8

    Lexus LS

    Mercedes-Benz S-Class

    Hyundai Equus

    Porsche Panamera

    0 25 50 75 100

    80808181

    8498

    Hybrids / Electric Vehicles

    Large Luxury Cars

    http://bit.ly/2n7zENP

  • Perc

    ent o

    f dai

    ly tr

    avel

    thi

    s d

    ista

    nce

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    < 1 mile 1-5 miles 6-15 miles 16-30 miles 31-45 miles 46-60 miles 61-120 miles 121+ miles

    S U F F I C I E N T R A N G E N O W

    The Nissan Leafs 107-mile

    range is enough for 83% of daily automobile use

    Source: 2009 FHWA NHTS

    Daily vehicle miles traveled

    4

  • B E T T E R R A N G E C O M I N G 5

  • 6U . S . E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S A L E S F O R E C A S T SEV

    Bat

    tery

    Cap

    acity

    (meg

    awat

    ts)

    0

    30,000

    60,000

    90,000

    120,000

    150,000

    2010 2020 2030 2040

    Bloomberg Electric Vehicle Initiative (target)

    EIA Navigant

    Plug-in hybrid and all-electric

    Batteries of new EVs equal 30,000 MW of capacity (on

    a Level 2 charger)

    Typical utility 15-year resource plan

  • C O S T O F I N A C T I O N ?

  • N E T B E N E F I T S O F N O T H I N G

    Source: California Transportation Electrification Assessment

    (October 2014)

  • Perc

    ent i

    ncre

    ase

    in p

    eak

    ener

    gy

    dem

    and

    0

    3

    6

    9

    12

    Minnesota California Texas New York Hawaii

    9%

    3.4%

    4.9%

    11.1%

    3%

    P R E S S U R E O N P E A KUnmanaged Electric Vehicle Charging Impacts Peak Demand

    Source: Rocky Mountain Institute

    EVs23%

    Percent of Vehicle Fleet

  • 2 E A S Y W AY S T O A C T

  • W H I C H D E V I C E C A N D O T H E M O S T T O I N C R E A S E G R I D B E N E F I T S O F E V S ?

    P O L L T I M E !

  • A

    B

    C

  • I N C E N T I V I Z E B E N E F I C I A L C H A R G I N G T I M E S

    1

  • E V C H A R G I N G R AT E S

    X C E L E N E R G Y

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    Hour of the day

    Regular rateSummer surcharge D A K O TA

    E L E C T R I C ( B A S I C )

    Hour of the day

    cents per kilowatt-hour cents per kilowatt-hour

    charging not available

    D A K O TA E L E C T R I C

    ( T O U )

    Hour of the day

    cents per kilowatt-hour

    *Off-peak rates also apply to weekends and holidays

    1 6 12 6 12 1 6 12 6 12 1 6 12 6 12

  • E V C H A R G I N G R AT E S

    *Off-peak rates also apply to weekends and holidays

    S A C R A M E N T O M U N I C I PA L

  • E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E C H A R G I N G TA R I F F S

    Source: Northeast Group, ILSR

    Adopted June 2015 or earlier

    Under consideration

  • Level 2 Charging

    DC Quick Charging

    Level 1 Charging

    Source: fleetcarma

    120-volt ~ 1.3 kilowatts

    240-volt ~ 3.3 - 6.6 kilowatts

    440-volt ~ 50 kilowatts

    2D E P L O Y I N F R A S T R U C T U R E

  • L E V E L 2 V E R S U S L E V E L 1

    Nissan Leaf 30 kWh

    Tesla Model S 60 kWh

    Tesla Model S 100 kWh

    0 20 40 60 80

    15 hours

    9 hours

    4.5 hours

    Level 2 charging time (6.6 kW)

    Additional time to charge at Level 1 (1.3 kW)

    23 hours

    46 hours

    77 hours

  • U T I L I T Y F I N A N C E D ?

    For every 15 new customers, the utility would recoup about $24,000 in new revenue over the first ten years of vehicle ownership, enough to pay for 15 home Level 2

    chargers and 1 public charger.+ 10 years$24,000

    =15 EV home chargers

    1 public charger

    Revenue from electricity sales to 15 electric vehicles over 10 years

  • 6 B I G B E N E F I T S O F A C T I O N

  • 0

    3

    6

    9

    12

    Minnesota California Texas New York Hawaii

    1.3%0.6%0.9%

    1.3%0.5%

    9%

    3.4%

    4.9%

    11.1%

    3%

    Uncontrolled Controlled

    T H E T I M E I S R I G H TManaged Electric Vehicle Charging Lowers Peak Demand Impact Several States

    Source: Rocky Mountain Institute

    1

  • W H AT A R E T H E AV E R A G E A N N U A L S AV I N G S O F C H A R G I N G O F F -P E A K ?

    P O L L T I M E !

    Compared to average fuel economy gasoline car; off-peak assumed to be 3 per kilowatt-hour

  • W H AT A R E T H E AV E R A G E A N N U A L S AV I N G S O F C H A R G I N G O F F -P E A K ?

    P O L L T I M E !

    A. $100

    B. $500

    C. $1,000

    D. $5,000

    E. $1 million

    Compared to average fuel economy gasoline car; off-peak assumed to be 3 per kilowatt-hour

  • 0

    300

    600

    900

    1200

    1500

    $980

    $1,470

    0

    300

    600

    900

    1200

    1500

    Standard electricity rates Off-peak electricity rates

    15,000 miles 10,000 miles 15,000 miles 10,000 miles

    $680

    $1,000

    O F F - P E A K C H A R G I N G I N C R E A S E S S AV I N G S O F D R I V I N G E L E C T R I C

    Annual average savings compared to driving on gasoline, U.S. states

    2

  • P R O J E C T E D A N N U A L F U E L S AV I N G S E L E C T R I C V. G A S C A R S

    Driving 15,000 miles per year, charging on off-peak rates

    $1,200 to $1,400

    $1,400 to $1,600

    $1,600 to $1,920

    2

  • E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S C A N P R O V I D E G R I D S E R V I C E S

    -7 kW

    -5 kW

    -3 kW

    -1 kW

    1 kW

    3 kW

    5 kW

    7 kW

    0 kW

    Charging

    Dischargingkilowatts

    6.6 kW ancillary services bid

    13.2 kW ancillary

    services bid

    Car with charge-only capability

    Car with vehicle-to-grid capability

    3

  • 0%

    25%

    50%

    75%

    100%

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

    Percent at homePercent at work

    R E A D Y T O C H A R G E

    EV location source: http://bit.ly/2hlRn3u

    Most electric vehicles are idle when the grid needs them

    Hour of the day

    41%

    31%

    3

    http://bit.ly/2hlRn3u

  • 0%

    25%

    50%

    75%

    100%

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

    Percent at homePercent at workElectricity demand w/o EVsElectricity demand w EVs

    R E A D Y T O C H A R G E

    Hourly load (ScottMadden): http://bit.ly/2hm527XEV location source: http://bit.ly/2hlRn3u

    Charging EVs could solve ramping issues by absorbing daytime solar

    energy production

    Hour of the day

    3

    1.5 million cars

    http://bit.ly/2hm527Xhttp://bit.ly/2hlRn3u

  • H O W M A N Y E V S C A N C H A R G E W I T H O V E R N I G H T C A PA C I T Y I N T H E M I D W E S T G R I D R E G I O N ?

    P O L L T I M E !

  • A. 50,000

    B. 150,000

    C. 1.5 million

    D. 7.5 million

    E. 22.5 million

    P O L L T I M E !

    H O W M A N Y E V S C A N C H A R G E W I T H O V E R N I G H T C A PA C I T Y I N T H E M I D W E S T G R I D R E G I O N ?

  • Hour of the day (CDT)

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

    Wind output Chosen day Ye