choosing the electric avenue - webinar presentation
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C H O O S I N G E L E C T R I C AV E N U E
U N L O C K I N G S AV I N G S , E M I S S I O N S R E D U C T I O N S , A N D C O M M U N I T Y B E N E F I T S O F E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S
John Farrell Director of Energy DemocracyJune 21, 2017
That was like a roller coaster
6 R E A S O N S W E N E E D T O A C T N O W
1S U R G I N G S A L E SQ
uart
erly
EV
Sal
es (t
hous
and
s)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Each quarter in 2016 has seen higher EV sales than the same quarter in any prior year
Source: Inside EVs / UCS
1EV
Sal
es (m
illio
ns)
0
5
10
15
20
2010 2020 2030 2040
Bloomberg Electric Vehicle Initiative (target)
EIA Navigant
2016 actual
U . S . E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S A L E S F O R E C A S T S
Annual sales, plug-in hybrid and all-electric
E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E O W N E R S H I P 1 0 - Y E A R S AV I N G S
$0
$3,000
$6,000
$9,000
$12,000
$15,000
2017 Nissan Leaf v. Nissan Versa
10-year sched. maintenance savings
10-year fuel cost savings (est.)Battery replacement cost (est.)
Does not include typical repairs unique to gasoline cars, including
timing belts, water pumps, etc.
2
W H AT C A R H A S T H E H I G H E S T C U S T O M E R S AT I S FA C T I O N ?
P O L L T I M E !
A. Porsche Carrera
B. Tesla Model S
C. BMW 328i
D. Volkswagen Beetle
E. Ford Focus
3H I G H C U S T O M E R S AT I S FA C T I O N F O R E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S
Source: Inside EVs, from Consumer Reports: http://bit.ly/2n7zENP
Tesla Model S
Chevrolet Volt
Honda Accord Hybrid
Ford Fusion Energi
Toyota Prius
Nissan Leaf
0 25 50 75 100
7782
848585
98
Percentage of owners who would definitely purchase the same vehicle again
Tesla Model S
Audi A8
Lexus LS
Mercedes-Benz S-Class
Hyundai Equus
Porsche Panamera
0 25 50 75 100
80808181
8498
Hybrids / Electric Vehicles
Large Luxury Cars
http://bit.ly/2n7zENP
Perc
ent o
f dai
ly tr
avel
thi
s d
ista
nce
0%
10%
20%
30%
< 1 mile 1-5 miles 6-15 miles 16-30 miles 31-45 miles 46-60 miles 61-120 miles 121+ miles
S U F F I C I E N T R A N G E N O W
The Nissan Leafs 107-mile
range is enough for 83% of daily automobile use
Source: 2009 FHWA NHTS
Daily vehicle miles traveled
4
B E T T E R R A N G E C O M I N G 5
6U . S . E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S A L E S F O R E C A S T SEV
Bat
tery
Cap
acity
(meg
awat
ts)
0
30,000
60,000
90,000
120,000
150,000
2010 2020 2030 2040
Bloomberg Electric Vehicle Initiative (target)
EIA Navigant
Plug-in hybrid and all-electric
Batteries of new EVs equal 30,000 MW of capacity (on
a Level 2 charger)
Typical utility 15-year resource plan
C O S T O F I N A C T I O N ?
N E T B E N E F I T S O F N O T H I N G
Source: California Transportation Electrification Assessment
(October 2014)
Perc
ent i
ncre
ase
in p
eak
ener
gy
dem
and
0
3
6
9
12
Minnesota California Texas New York Hawaii
9%
3.4%
4.9%
11.1%
3%
P R E S S U R E O N P E A KUnmanaged Electric Vehicle Charging Impacts Peak Demand
Source: Rocky Mountain Institute
EVs23%
Percent of Vehicle Fleet
2 E A S Y W AY S T O A C T
W H I C H D E V I C E C A N D O T H E M O S T T O I N C R E A S E G R I D B E N E F I T S O F E V S ?
P O L L T I M E !
A
B
C
I N C E N T I V I Z E B E N E F I C I A L C H A R G I N G T I M E S
1
E V C H A R G I N G R AT E S
X C E L E N E R G Y
0
10
20
30
40
50
Hour of the day
Regular rateSummer surcharge D A K O TA
E L E C T R I C ( B A S I C )
Hour of the day
cents per kilowatt-hour cents per kilowatt-hour
charging not available
D A K O TA E L E C T R I C
( T O U )
Hour of the day
cents per kilowatt-hour
*Off-peak rates also apply to weekends and holidays
1 6 12 6 12 1 6 12 6 12 1 6 12 6 12
E V C H A R G I N G R AT E S
*Off-peak rates also apply to weekends and holidays
S A C R A M E N T O M U N I C I PA L
E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E C H A R G I N G TA R I F F S
Source: Northeast Group, ILSR
Adopted June 2015 or earlier
Under consideration
Level 2 Charging
DC Quick Charging
Level 1 Charging
Source: fleetcarma
120-volt ~ 1.3 kilowatts
240-volt ~ 3.3 - 6.6 kilowatts
440-volt ~ 50 kilowatts
2D E P L O Y I N F R A S T R U C T U R E
L E V E L 2 V E R S U S L E V E L 1
Nissan Leaf 30 kWh
Tesla Model S 60 kWh
Tesla Model S 100 kWh
0 20 40 60 80
15 hours
9 hours
4.5 hours
Level 2 charging time (6.6 kW)
Additional time to charge at Level 1 (1.3 kW)
23 hours
46 hours
77 hours
U T I L I T Y F I N A N C E D ?
For every 15 new customers, the utility would recoup about $24,000 in new revenue over the first ten years of vehicle ownership, enough to pay for 15 home Level 2
chargers and 1 public charger.+ 10 years$24,000
=15 EV home chargers
1 public charger
Revenue from electricity sales to 15 electric vehicles over 10 years
6 B I G B E N E F I T S O F A C T I O N
0
3
6
9
12
Minnesota California Texas New York Hawaii
1.3%0.6%0.9%
1.3%0.5%
9%
3.4%
4.9%
11.1%
3%
Uncontrolled Controlled
T H E T I M E I S R I G H TManaged Electric Vehicle Charging Lowers Peak Demand Impact Several States
Source: Rocky Mountain Institute
1
W H AT A R E T H E AV E R A G E A N N U A L S AV I N G S O F C H A R G I N G O F F -P E A K ?
P O L L T I M E !
Compared to average fuel economy gasoline car; off-peak assumed to be 3 per kilowatt-hour
W H AT A R E T H E AV E R A G E A N N U A L S AV I N G S O F C H A R G I N G O F F -P E A K ?
P O L L T I M E !
A. $100
B. $500
C. $1,000
D. $5,000
E. $1 million
Compared to average fuel economy gasoline car; off-peak assumed to be 3 per kilowatt-hour
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
$980
$1,470
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
Standard electricity rates Off-peak electricity rates
15,000 miles 10,000 miles 15,000 miles 10,000 miles
$680
$1,000
O F F - P E A K C H A R G I N G I N C R E A S E S S AV I N G S O F D R I V I N G E L E C T R I C
Annual average savings compared to driving on gasoline, U.S. states
2
P R O J E C T E D A N N U A L F U E L S AV I N G S E L E C T R I C V. G A S C A R S
Driving 15,000 miles per year, charging on off-peak rates
$1,200 to $1,400
$1,400 to $1,600
$1,600 to $1,920
2
E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S C A N P R O V I D E G R I D S E R V I C E S
-7 kW
-5 kW
-3 kW
-1 kW
1 kW
3 kW
5 kW
7 kW
0 kW
Charging
Dischargingkilowatts
6.6 kW ancillary services bid
13.2 kW ancillary
services bid
Car with charge-only capability
Car with vehicle-to-grid capability
3
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Percent at homePercent at work
R E A D Y T O C H A R G E
EV location source: http://bit.ly/2hlRn3u
Most electric vehicles are idle when the grid needs them
Hour of the day
41%
31%
3
http://bit.ly/2hlRn3u
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Percent at homePercent at workElectricity demand w/o EVsElectricity demand w EVs
R E A D Y T O C H A R G E
Hourly load (ScottMadden): http://bit.ly/2hm527XEV location source: http://bit.ly/2hlRn3u
Charging EVs could solve ramping issues by absorbing daytime solar
energy production
Hour of the day
3
1.5 million cars
http://bit.ly/2hm527Xhttp://bit.ly/2hlRn3u
H O W M A N Y E V S C A N C H A R G E W I T H O V E R N I G H T C A PA C I T Y I N T H E M I D W E S T G R I D R E G I O N ?
P O L L T I M E !
A. 50,000
B. 150,000
C. 1.5 million
D. 7.5 million
E. 22.5 million
P O L L T I M E !
H O W M A N Y E V S C A N C H A R G E W I T H O V E R N I G H T C A PA C I T Y I N T H E M I D W E S T G R I D R E G I O N ?
Hour of the day (CDT)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Wind output Chosen day Ye