chip 2012 nsraa recap- 2013 forecast · 2013-03-22 · nsraa 2013 forecast - coho deer lake coho...

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Includes data from: ADF&G Final Allocation Data 1994-2010; Preliminary 2011with Preliminary 2012 Operator Estimates(NSRAA SSRAA DIPAC AKI) Chip Blair

NSRAA

(NSRAA, SSRAA, DIPAC, AKI)

Southeast Enhanced Salmon Value 2012: A new record – by far A new record by far $65M ex-vessel value (previous record

$45M in 2011)$45M in 2011) SSRAA & DIPAC had huge years;

NSRAA improved from 2011NSRAA improved from 2011

History – All Gear Value 2012:History All Gear Value 0$65 million

2012 Preliminary data$64,840,000 total enhanced value,$64,840,000 total enhanced value,or approximately 50% of total value estimate ~$130M

Summary Table - Annual Value Estimates by Gear

ALL SPECIES TROLL SEINE GILLNET TOTAL SOURCE RANK1994 5,317,271$ 8,876,576$ 3,797,692$ 17,991,540$ ADFG 111995 2,871,032$ 14,789,338$ 7,169,053$ 24,829,423$ ADFG 81996 3,224,761$ 12,061,185$ 4,184,597$ 19,470,543$ ADFG 101997 3,004,073$ 10,752,998$ 4,037,169$ 17,794,241$ ADFG 121998 1,973,521$ 9,277,676$ 3,792,912$ 15,044,109$ ADFG 15, ,$ , ,$ , ,$ , ,$1999 3,461,492$ 10,061,642$ 4,110,113$ 17,633,247$ ADFG 132000 3,465,550$ 17,113,326$ 6,219,903$ 26,798,778$ ADFG 72001 3,752,912$ 7,170,159$ 4,852,294$ 15,775,364$ ADFG 142002 2,303,490$ 3,645,488$ 3,627,174$ 9,576,152$ ADFG 192003 2,774,408$ 3,744,188$ 3,385,285$ 9,903,881$ ADFG 182004 4,139,539$ 5,498,187$ 5,400,059$ 15,037,785$ ADFG 162005 3 522 736$ 4 405 236$ 4 707 650$ 12 635 622$ ADFG 172005 3,522,736$ 4,405,236$ 4,707,650$ 12,635,622$ ADFG 172006 4,192,671$ 15,109,033$ 12,215,370$ 31,517,075$ ADFG 52007 4,728,923$ 6,531,971$ 8,851,525$ 20,112,418$ ADFG 92008 7,320,371$ 16,158,998$ 16,385,073$ 39,864,442$ ADFG 42009 4,032,749$ 12,746,563$ 12,255,256$ 29,034,568$ ADFG 62010 6,735,480$ 17,451,677$ 15,728,038$ 39,915,195$ ADFG 32011 8,355,111$ 13,812,410$ 22,661,509$ 44,829,030$ ADFG prelim 22012 7,654,083$ 31,692,051$ 25,494,376$ 64,840,511$ OPER prelim 1

1994-12 Total 82,830,173$ 220,898,703$ 168,875,047$ 472,603,923$ 1994-12 Avg. 4,359,483$ 11,626,248$ 8,888,160$ 24,873,891$ 1994-12 Percent 18% 47% 36% 100%2012 Percent 12% 49% 39% 100%Target 27-32% 44-49% 24-29%

2012: Record highs for gillnet, seine, 2nd highest for troll

History – Gear SplitsHistory Gear Splits

2012 Preliminary –Gear Splits

2012 Preliminary –Gear Splits / Agency

2012 Preliminary Value by Agency & Gear

Troll Gillnet Seine TotalNSRAA 1,112,466$ 1,378,895$ 8,936,204$ 11,427,564$ SSRAA 5,957,700$ 10,242,900$ 19,627,500$ 35,828,100$ DIPAC 216 861$ 13 869 921$ 2 991 835$ 17 078 617$DIPAC 216,861$ 13,869,921$ 2,991,835$ 17,078,617$ AKI 367,056$ 2,660$ 136,513$ 506,229$

TOTAL 7,654,083$ 25,494,376$ 31,692,051$ 64,840,511$

12% 39% 49% 100%

2012 Preliminary –Gear Splits / Species

2012 Preliminary Value by Species & Gear

Troll Gillnet Seine TotalCOHO 2,300,621$ 693,640$ 134,951$ 3,129,213$ CHIN 1,320,472$ 850,877$ 780,195$ 2,951,545$ CHUM 4,010,103$ 23,021,384$ 30,331,688$ 57,363,176$CHUM 4,010,103$ 23,021,384$ 30,331,688$ 57,363,176$ SOCKEYE 22,886$ 928,474$ 445,217$ 1,396,577$

TOTAL 7,654,083$ 25,494,376$ 31,692,051$ 64,840,511$

12% 39% 49% 100%

2012 Preliminary –5-year rolling average

Target Ranges:

•Troll 27-32%•Seine 44-49%•Gillnet 24-29%

2012 Preliminary –Troll HistoryTroll History2012= 11.8%most recent 5-year = 15.6 (DOWN from 17.9)

2012 Preliminary –Seine History2012= 48.9%most recent 5-year = 42.0 (UP from 38.4)y ( )

2012 Preliminary –Gillnet HistoryGillnet History2012= 39.3%most recent 5-year = 42.3 (DOWN from 43.7)

NSRAA 2012NSRAA 2012


$11.4 M in Commercial Value ($7.9 million in 2011)( )


$11.4 M in Commercial Value ($4.7 in 2011)( )


History by gear – includes cooperative chum projectsy y g p p j


Only $647,000 in CR revenues from fish sales – with regular CR method y gat HF would have been about $750,000


Chum – improving Chum improving Upper chart includes Boat

Harbor/ Limestone Lower Chart – Hatchery only


Chinook – close Chinook close to 5-yr avg.

$1.15M ($0.9M 10-yr avg. and $1 2 5-yr avg )$1.2 5-yr avg.)

Upper chart – all gear Lower Chart – hatchery splits


Chinook – Chinook average

Upper chart –gear splits Lower Chart troll only Lower Chart – troll only


Coho – poor (except Coho poor (except Deer Lake)

Upper chart – All projects Lower Chart – HF & Deer Lake Hidden Falls MS ~1.1% Deer Lake ~6.0% Medvejie/ Deep Inlet ~2.5%

NSRAA 2013 Forecast - chumNSRAA 2013 Forecast chum

Deep Inlet chum – projection is double 2012 return

Hidden Falls chum – similar to 2012

Haines chum – 30,000 (est. 20,000 in 2012)

NSRAA 2013 Forecast - ChinookNSRAA 2013 Forecast Chinook

Medvejie Chinook – projection is about 4,000 fish above 2012 return

Hidden Falls Chinook – projection is about 3,000 fish above 2012 return

NSRAA 2013 Forecast - CohoNSRAA 2013 Forecast Coho

Deer Lake Coho – projection is about 3x 2012 return

Hidden Falls Coho – projection is about 4.5x 2012 return

Medvejie/Deep Inlet Coho – projection is about 10K (2012 return was 6 100)return was 6,100)

chip 2012 nsraa recap- 2013 forecast · 2013-03-22 · nsraa 2013 forecast - coho deer lake coho...

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