china the once and future king

7/28/2019 China the Once and Future King

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China:The Once and Future King


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Sick Man of Asia1. Late 19th-start of 20th Century China is wracked by internal rebellions and external invasions

hich leave it an embarrassed and emasculated power2. Transfer of power from the Dynasty to the Republic of China in 1912 under the leadership of

Sun Yat-Sen


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Rise of the Communist Dynasty1. Party founded in 19192. Start Civil War Against the Nationalists in the 1920s

A. Long March -12,500 Km Retreat (a year)

1. "The journey of a thousand Li begins witha single step"

2. Start with 100,000 - finish with 7,0003. Make "Peace" to fight the Japanese4. Hostilities resume 1947-495. KMT chased to Taiwain

A. Mao is planning an invasion in 1952 but theKorean War breaks out


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1. Mao seeks to modernize China - Great Leap Forward (1958-61)A. Forced Agricultural Collectivization not as effective as planned (outright lies)

1. Irrigation projects built without engineers2. Close seeding, deep plowing, fertilize poor land

B. Demands a yearly doubling of Steel Production

1. Backyard Furnace program2. Brings 30 Million new people into the cities - can't feedC. Hundred Flowers Campaign - encourage free speech

1. Followed by brutal crackdownD. 45 Million dead due to starvation and political repression

2. Cultural Revolution (1966-76)

A. The failures of the GLF leads to criticism and marginalization of Mao1. Lead by Deng Xiaoping

B. Seeks return to power through Purges and Re-eductionC. Publishes Little Red Book (1964)C. Establishes Red Guards (1966)D. Establish 16 points (1968)

1. Bourgeois ideas are seeking to undermine us1. Right to speak freely, debate, link

F. Ban all mysticism and religion


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G. Down to the Countryside Movement1. Young intellectuals forced to labor in the

CountryH. Effects

1. Mobs of Red Guards attack teachers,

political reformers, successful businessmen andarmers2. Humiliating Self-Criticism encouraged3. Re-education work camps4. Economy sputters5. Millions of historic temples and relics

destroyed "Criticize Confucius"I. Gang of Four - Mao is aging and losing his

senses, close advisers and his wife take control1. Zhou Enlai dies strengthening the Gang of

Four's hold on Powera. Popular Demonstrations in

iananmen Square criticize Go4 and MaoJ. Mao dies 9 Sept 1976 - New Premiere Hua Guafong denounces Go4K. Official Position - Mao was "70% good, 30% bad"


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Tiananmen Square1. Mild Economic Reforms and the success of protest movements in EasternEurope encourage a growing Chinese Democracy Movement2. Hu Yaobang was a popular political reformer purged from government, his death

leads to mass mourning across the country especially in TS3. Mourning turns to Demonstrations - University Students, Professors, Journalistsand workers march on TS on 15 April.

A. Demand affirmation of Hu Yaobang's views on democracy, freedom of speechand the right to assemble, publish state leader's incomes, Democratic elections

B. Police clear the Square on 20 April

4. Students return the next day and refuse to leave before the funeral - call for strike5. On 4 May 100,000 more students and workers join the protesters6. Hunger and general Strike start on 11 May - 2 days before Gorbachev's visit7. Martial Law Declared 20 May8. PLA troops from external provinces brought in (Beijing PLA consideredsympathetic) to clear TS

9. Morning hours of June 4 The CCTV cameras on TS are cut and soldiers move inith live ammunition, tear gas and tanks.

A. Estimated between 2,000-10,000 dead in Beijing alone10. The Deal - You stay out of politics, and we'll stay out of the economy


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Socialism with Chinese Characteristics1. 1960s Shanghai begins to experiment with Economic Liberalization

A. Cultural Revolution shuts that down and Those in charge sent to re-education camps2. Deng Xiaoping takes over and begins reforms to the economy

A. Allows for direct foreign investment in Special Economic Zones Shenzhen, Shantou and

ouhai in Guangdong Province, Xiamen in Fujian province and the island of HainanB. Pass tax breaks and stricter patent lawsC. Allows farmers to produce their own food as wellD. Allows for private holding of land (you can't buy land, but you can buy a 900 year lease

rom the government)3. Jiang Zemin takes over the CCP in 1989

A. Brings Zhu Rongji up from Shanghai to be Premier/run EL program (1991)B. Shanghai Gang Comes to power.C. Creates Foreign Invested Enterprise classification

1. 100% tax holiday your first 2 years of profitability, plus 50% for the following 3 yearsD. 1981-86% live in poverty ( less than $1.25/day) 2005-16% live in poverty (still 240 M

People)4. With great growth comes great corruption, especially in a privatizing economy

A. Hong Bao - Red Envelope. Traditional gift giving mode for weddings/spring festivalB. Hai Kun - Reciepts - Attempts to cover up bribes/extra income. Elaborate forging centers


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1990

2001


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China Rising - 21st Century Juggernaut


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By the Numbers:1. China owns 20.8% of US Treasury Bills2. 2010 Passed Japan as the world's second-largest Economy ($5.87 Trillion)3. Average 10% GDP growth from 1985-2005

4. World's largest exporter5. PLA Budget is now $130 Billion6. 33% of the world's active Cranes are in China7. China has 271 Dollar Billionaires (up from 189 in 2010) despite Globalrecession

A. 960,000 people with assets greater than $1.6 Million (10 Million Yuan)

8. China invested $34.6 Billion inrenewable and green tech9. Beijing alone adds 1,466 Cars to theroads EVERY DAY!10. 92% Literacy Rate11. 400 Million "English" Speakers


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Role of Women1. If you're opening a business in China - Hire Women!

A. They work harder and better (for less money). Especially in office

environmentsB. "Peasant Mentality" Traditional Gender Roles make women easier to

ork with (used to being made to do most of the work), viewed asguardians of the family and will be more responsible

C. Women's Savings Rates are much higher than men

D. Women make up 45% of the workforce in ChinaE. Less susceptible to corruption than men.


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The Engineering Cadre1. China's leadership for the last 20 years has been dominated not by political scientists but byhe engineering cadre

A. This has lead to a focus on infrastructure growth.

1. From 1990-2001 they avg 1,092 km new rail, 837 km of new multi-track, 962 km of newelectrified track each year - 25% of the world's rail traffic is in China2. Achievements

A. Three Gorges Dam - World's largest Dam ($22.5 B)1. Displaced 1.3 Million People2. Sits on a fault line, cracks have already started to form

B. High Speed Rail1. Major investments in HSR - world's largest network - 10,000km2. Shanghai MagLev - 30km in 7 min 20 sec

C. Beijing to Llhasa Rail line1. Effort to bring Tibet into the fold.2. Highest railroad in the world

D. Beijing Airport - 2nd busiest in the world (after Atlanta)

1. Terminal 3 is 17% larger than Heathrow. 2nd Largest in world (986,000km2)2. Built with 500 M Euro loan from EIB (and 50B Yen loan from Japan)


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China's Accelerated Growth1. People's Liberation Army - $130 Budget last year

A. "Built" their first aircraft carrierB. Subs

1. July 2007 pop up in the middle of US Navy exercisesC. Missile technology

1. Shot down a satellite 11/1/07 because it had "failed"2. US has same "problem" and shoots one down in response Feb 2008

2. Chinese Space ProgramA. 25 Sept 2008 - first space walk

B. 29 Sept 2011 - first part of plannedspace labC. Goals:

1. Moon Mission by 2016.2. Moon station 2025.3. Mars 2040

3. 10% avg Growth since the earl 80s

4. Lift nearly 900 Mil people out of poverty

F d th P d Th H t f R M t i l


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Feed the Panda: The Hunt for Raw Materials1. 20% of freight containers sit idle b/c they are waiting to unload in Chinese ports2. Oil Pipeline being built from Kazakhstan.3. Development in Xinjiang3. Coal Accounts for 70% of China's Energy use (compared to 49% in US next largest)

A. China has 4.46 Trillion cubic meters of Coal reserves4. Africa - "The Great Chinese Takeout"

A. Classic Imperialism - Excess population,need for raw materials and new markets1. "Zou Chuqu"- 2001. Literally Go Out. Instructing Chinese SRC to seek resources

abroad.

2. More Chinese living in Nigeria alone than Britons at the height

of colonialism - 1 Mil on Continent3. 2009-creation of 1 of 5 tax-free SEZ in Africa (Zambia).

a. Local Resentment as Copper prices soar4. Even less Environmental and Safety regulations than home5. Congo alone has 10% copper, 30% cobalt, 80% coltan, hugereserves of zinc, bauxite, cadmium, uranium, gold and diamonds


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Chi th W ld St


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China on the World Stage1. No Stipulations to aid

A. Unlike Western Government they don't tie aid/trade to Human Rights or Democracy2. Buying votes of approval3. Making extensive alliances in Africa - very under the radar

A. Trade with Africa quadruples between 2000-064. Long-time close alliance with Pakistan (enemy of my enemy)

A. Gave Pakistan help with it's Nukes after India develops theirsB. Part of A.Q. Khan network connecting N Korea and Pakistan

5. $100 Billion investment in Latin America over the next decadeA. Close relations with Brazil (BRICS), Chile, Cuba, Venezuela and ArgentinaB. Increased training of LA armies as US pulls back

6. International Law Breaking -A. Sex traffickingB. Heroin TriangleC. Jade smuggling from Burma

7. Key member of 6 party talks

A. Big credit for getting NK to table, losescredit for letting them walk away and not comeback


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Technological Wunderkind!1. Attacks on US Army Computers

A. Put a great emphasis on ability to hack and take down opp nnetworksB. Low grade "war" with US hacking satellites, internal networks, DOS attacks

2. The Great Firewall of ChinaA. BBC, Wikipedia, Facebook, Twitter, Google, CNN all regularly blockedB. Chinese alternatives Baidu (world's largest website)C. If you try to go to a blocked site or illegal search

a little policeman pops up and tells you no

1. If you try again within an hour you get aimeout for 15 mins. Third try gets you hour TO2. If you try for a 4th time your IP address is

logged and forwarded to PSBD. Censors - People whose job it is to surf the

internet for content deemed inappropriate and delete

E. Self-Censorship - Anti-CNNF. No-nos - Freedom of Speech, Democracy, FalunGong, Marxism, Taiwan, Dalai Lama, 4 June, 1989and most importantly PORN!


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ho's Afraid of a Paper Tiger

B Th N b


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By The Numbers:1. AIDS rate worse than Sub-Saharan Africa - officially doesn't exist

A. Blood is sold around the country as a folk medicine cure, often under sketchycircumstances

B. People found with AIDS are moved to AIDS villages, and left to die there2. Official Unemployment 4.2% - actual 9% (8 Million people)3. More than 90 Million live on less than $125/yr4. Import 4.8 M Barrels of oil a day (3rd largest importer)5. New aircraft Carrier launched to much fanfare = 1950s era US carrier6. Corruption accounts for 10-20% of GDP

7. 67% of men smoke, and 4% of women (300 M People). 3,000/day die from smoking8. 46% of Chinese with assets more than $10 Million want to emigrateA. 14% have already begun the process

9. Compulsory education until age 15. After that you have to pay10. World leader in executions 5,000-10,000/yr


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Massive Pollution1. The 1st and 2nd most polluted cities in the world are in China2. 1/3 of Chinese Children have elevated levels of lead in their blood

A. This leads to aggression, mental retardation, hearing loss and death3. Given the excess of mercury in fish, women are encouraged not to eat Chinese fish for FIVEYEARS before thinking of becoming pregnant4. Wasteful Development

A. Chinese Steel production requires 20% more energy/ton than international avg.B. Chinese cement production requires 45% more energy/ton than intl avg

5. 22% of the world's CO2 emissions

6. A 1 meter rise in global sea levels would displace 67 Million Chinese people7. China loses 67 Square km a year to Desertification8. To help with pollution in most major cities you can only drive your car if your license plate endin an even number on even days - odd on odd

A. People just buy/forge fake license plates and replace themB. Donkey Carts are faster


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Corruption


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Corruption1. Chinese companies 2nd most likely in the world to offer bribes (India is #1)2. Rail Disaster

A. In February 2011 the rail minister was arrested and accused of taking $152 Mil in bribesB. 23 July 2011 Wezhou, 2trains collide killing 40 and injuring 192 more. Line is destroyed

3. Milk ScandalA. Melamine added as a thickener despite known health risksB. 300,000 sickened. 860 Babies hospitalized, 6 deadC. 11 countries stop importing altogetherD. Sanlu offers Baidu (Chinese Google) 3 Mill Yuan bribe to screen neg storiesE. As late as July 2010 Chinese milk is STILL being found with Melamine

4. Death Penalty for bribe-takers

5. Odds are less than 3% of getting caughtand there is so much money to be made itis a minor deterrent6. No free media to draw attention7. Protests against corruption are crackeddown on violently by local administrators

A. Claim that protests related to otherthings8. Sichuan Earthquake - 2008

A. Schools constructed with inferiormaterials, not up to standards.

B. Bribes to look the other wayC. One Child Policy


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80% of the steel used to build Shanghai is NOT up to standard for Earthquakes!

Shanghai sits on a major fault line

Demographic Disaster


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Demographic Disaster1. One Child Policy - implemented in 1978

A. SARs, Protected Minorities, some rural families exempted - applies to 35.9% of popB. Yearly fines for extra children - wealthy and well connected have more kidsC. If you don't pay the fines and you keep having kids forced sterilization is an option

D. Selective Abortion - Keeping the family name going is most important1. Claims to have stopped 300-400 Million births2. 4-2-1 problem3. Gender Ratio Disparity 121-100 (105-100 is normal)

A. 100 Million "missing" women1. No Marriage Hopes for these men (coupled with high lead in blood and extreme

nationalism in a rising power could make for a very dangerous cocktail)4. Little Emperors

A. Generation of only children spoiled by their parents/grandparentsB. Rising standard of living and keeping up with the Hus

2. Value of Life is extremely low in China (when you have so many people what is one more?)A. Starting to see some blowback on this. Sichuan Earthquake, Milk Scandal


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Tibet and Xinjiang


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Tibet and XinjiangTibet- Tibetans - Buddhists Xinjiang - Uighurs - Muslims

Invaded and incorporated 19506,000 Monasteries destroyed in CR

Admitted as a SAR in 1955Chinese Nuke Tests in 1964 - Killed 100,000-200,000

Buffer Against IndiaControl of "Traditional China" Huge Natural ResourcesStrategically connected to central Asia

Riots, Self-immolation, Dalai Lama Riots, bombings, suicide attacks

China Western DevelopmentBeijing to Lhasa Rail LineHan "Colonists"

Ban on Tibetan Language being taught

China Western DevelopmentBuilding schools and librariesTake promising children and foster them in the East

Han "Colonists" - now 40% of pop


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Innovation Desert1. Missing Middle Managers

A. Those people who would be middle-upper management now

ere coming of age during the Cultural Revolution2. Chinese Education System

A. Lots of Rote learning and repetitionB. Does not encourage critical thinking

3. Political repression - Also does not encourage critical thinking4. Weak/non-existent patent law

A. Chevy VoltB. Easier to take Western Tech

5. Engineering Cadre more willing to spend money on

infrastructure than R&D - this is changing


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CCP Keep Up?1. There are more than 180,000 protests in 2010 alone (>500 ppl)

A. Mostly aimed at corruption, pollution, official abuse, inflation

B. There is no way to redress grievances, no transparencyC. "Jasmine Revolution" failed after swift police crackdown

2. Growing Middle ClassA. Massive economic growth isn't enough anymore

1. 13% inflation in food ATB (pork up 52%)B. They may not want Democracy, but they do want security

3. The Great Firewall is showing cracks - too many people onlineA. Growing tech sophistication among the youthB. Increase of social networking sites and MMORPGs

4. Is the Mandate of Heaven Closing?A. Sichuan EarthquakeB. "Peasant" unrest

china the once and future king

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