CHINA

Six Factors Driving China’s Growth• Privatization & profit motive

- decline of SOE role in economy

• Urbanization- by 2020 60% of population in cities- labor low cost, increasingly skilled

• Trade- from none to #4 worldwide

• Inward Foreign Direct Investment- from none to #2 worldwide

• Nationalism- China as “Number 1”, #3 in space

• Consumerism

- housing and commercial real estate boom- cars, latest tech, cell phones, laptops

Source: Prof. Joseph A. Massey, Prof. Joseph A. Massey, The Chinese Dragon Wakes American Institute for International Steel Gulf Region Seminar September 27, 2004 Houston, Texas Center for International BusinessTuck School of Business at DartmouthCenter for International BusinessTuck School of Business at Dartmouth

China’s Inward and Outward FDI

• Every week, more than $1 billion in FDI flows into China

• $57 B in 2003 (second only to USA)

• But, China’s outward FDI also growing

• $2.5 B in 2002, $35 B over the past two decades

• Most going to ASEAN countries

• Also increasingly coming to USA - Haier an example

China’s Astonishing Trade Performance

• In 2003, China accounted for more than 60% of the growth in world trade

• Growth in foreign trade: 15% average annually since 1978

• 2003 - world’s 4th largest exporter: $438b after US, Germany and Japan

• 2003 - world’s 6th largest importer: $412bwill soon exceed Japan, UK and France

- China’s imports surged 40% in 2003

- China passed USA as top export market for Japan

• Chinese economy’s share of global output doubled to 4% in last decade

• But China consumes:

•7% of world’s oil supply

•25% of aluminum

•27% of steel products

•30% of iron ore output

•31% of coal

China Impact: Commodities

    To date, there are 49 national-level ETDZ, among which, eastern coastal regions 27, Middle West regions 22.

II. The FTZs facilitate the import and export. In 2001, the total volume of import and export reached 21.388 billion UD dollars, occupying 4.2% of the national total value, of which, the import 12.9 billion USD, the export 8.48 billion USD, increased by 11% and 20.11% than the last year.

The Border Economic Cooperative Areas made good progress In 2001, the 14 BECAs developed 32 square kilometers land ,attracted foreign investment of 85 billion yuan, more than 3000 enterprises, among which over 400 foreign enterprises and provided 120,000 job opportunities.