china net assessment. geography politics economics security society history
TRANSCRIPT
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CHINACHINANET ASSESSMENTNET ASSESSMENT
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Geography
Politics
Economics
Security
Society
History
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Geography
Politics
Economics
Security
Society
History
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Geography
• Land Power facing Maritime threats
• Buffers
• Resource Rich, Arable Land Poor
• Industrialization
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Geography
Politics
Economics
Security
Society
History
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Politics
• #1 Driver – Maintenance of CPC Rule
• Leader Centered – Consensus Based – cycle – Gradual devolution of leader-centered power
• “Mandate from Heaven” – Adjustments of incentives to guarantee
authority – Eat sticky candy in small bites
• Insular to International – cycle – Contradictions between nationalism and
integration
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Geography
Politics
Economics
Security
Society
History
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Economics
• Economics is politics by other means
• Overdependence on trade and investment; underdeveloped domestic consumption – Center-vs-periphery – Inefficient use of capital, weak monetary policy
• Imbalanced growth shifts social demographics – Changing class structure – Widening disparities (regional, rural/urban)
• Recognition of problems, but fear of action – Damned if you do, damned if you don’t
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Geography
Politics
Economics
Security
Society
History
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Security
• Party first, State second, economy and society last – Internal security apparatus
• PLA – professionalization and shifting focus – Resource protection – Land to maritime and space – United States, Japan
• Reduced PLA influence on politics
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Geography
Politics
Economics
Security
Society
History
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Society
• Population size and management
• Lack of unifying “ideology”
• Impact of economic reform and opening – Unequal distribution of wealth and
development – Ineffective migration controls – Iron Rice Bowl breaking
• SOEs, Pensions, Health, Education...
• Environment – catalyst for dissent
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Geography
Politics
Economics
Security
Society
History
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History
• Dynastic cycle
– Unification to bureaucracy to self-interest to loss of control to new dynasty
• Centralization to decentralization – Limiting (decreasing) cycle – Technology speeds cycle
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China Net Assessed:
• Geography – Land-based power in a maritime world
• Politics – #1 driver is single-party leadership
• Economics – Economics is politics by other means
• Security – Professionalization amid shifting resource allocation
• Society – Controlling massive and diverse population
• History – Centralization-decentralization cycle