China-CEE Relations: Dividing Line or Business as Usual?

Richard Turcsányi(Visiting Fellow at EIAS)

Population, 2012 (thousands)Poland 38 483Romania 22 215Czech Republic 10 212Hungary 9 906Serbia 9 235Bulgaria 7 205Slovakia 5 463Bosnia and Herzegovina 4 613Croatia 4 489Albania 3 639Lithuania 3 555Latvia 2 232Macedonia 2 067Slovenia 2 006Estonia 1 299Montenegro 621Total 127 240

GDP in 2012 (PPP, billions of USD)Poland 802Czech Republic 287Romania 274Hungary 197Slovakia 132Bulgaria 104Croatia 80Serbia 79Lithuania 64Slovenia 58Latvia 37Bosnia and Herzegovina 32Estonia 28Albania 26Macedonia 22Montenegro 7TOTAL 2 229

GDP per capita (PPP, 2013 USD)Slovenia 27 837

Czech Republic 27 000Slovakia 24 142Estonia 21 714Lithuania 21 383Hungary 20 562Latvia 18 058Croatia 17 618Poland 16 518Bulgaria 14 103Romania 12 722

Montenegro 11 610Serbia 10 722Macedonia 10 465

Bosnia and Herzegovina 9 235Albania 7 997

CEE-China trade (million USD)

CEE16 exports to China, proportions

CEE16 imports from China, proportions (UNCTAD)

Chinese FDI inflow in CEE16 (Eurostat)2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Bulgaria 2 2 5 49 16Czech Republic -13 -19 9 -85 60Estonia 3 5 -2 2 0Croatia 0 0 0 0 0Latvia 0 0 0 0 0Lithuania 0 0 0 0 0Hungary -72 -16 103 -123 110Poland 98 -151 0 73 -116Romania -3 0 -7 -2 -2Slovenia 0 0 0 0 0Slovakia 1 -15 12 25 -8Montenegro : : 2 1 0Macedonia (FYROM) : : 0 0 0TOTAL 16 -194 122 -60 60

Czech Republic 2009March Sinomach $100 Energy

Bulgaria 2009November Great Wall Motor $120 Transport Litex Motors

Hungary 2010February Wanhua Industrial $190 Chemicals BorsodChem

Bosnia 2010July Dongfang Electric $710 Energy Energy Financing

Serbia 2010December Sinomach $220 EnergyElectrical Power Company of Serbia

Serbia 2010AprilChina Communications Construction $260 Transport

Hungary 2011February Wanhua Industrial $1 660 Chemicals BorsodChem

Hungary 2011October Wanhua Industrial $260 Chemicals

Poland 2012February Guangxi Liu Gong Machinery $100 Transport Huta Stalowa Wola

Hungary 2012May Huawei $1 500 Technology

Hungary 2012May China Railway Construction $990 Transport

Romania 2012May Huadian $1 300 Energy Complexul Energetic Rovinari

Poland 2012July China Power Investment $740 Energy Kompania Weglowa

Poland 2013May China Energy Engineering $560 Energy Rafako

Bosnia 2013July Power Construction Corp $280 Energy

Serbia 2013JanuaryChina Communications Construction $850 Transport

Serbia 2013June Shandong Gaosu $330 Transport

Serbia 2013November Sinomach $720Energy

Macedonia 2013November Power Construction Corp $400Transport

Romania 2013November Ming Yan $540Energy Speranta & Succesul

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Hungary Czech Republic Poland Bulgaria Romania Serbia Macedonia0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Chinese FDI in CEE16 (Heritage Foundation)

TOTAL

16+1 platform

• Budapest 2011: First China-CEE Economic and Trade Forum– “five-point proposal”

• Warsaw 2012: First China-CEE leaders’ summit– “12-point initiative”

• Bucharest 2013: Bucharest Guidelines

Motivation

• China: “Political goals with economic means”

• CEE16: “Catch up with the West”