Chernobyl: radioactive fallChernobyl: radioactive fallout and health out and health

consequences in Europeconsequences in Europe Dr Ian FairlieDr Ian Fairlie

Consultant on Radiation in the Consultant on Radiation in the EnvironmentEnvironment

LondonLondonUnited KingdomUnited Kingdom

The Other Report on CHernobyl The Other Report on CHernobyl (TORCH) (TORCH)

independent of governments, independent of governments, agencies and industryagencies and industry

funded by Greens/EFA of funded by Greens/EFA of European Parliament; European Parliament; Altner-Altner-Crombacher Foundation; Crombacher Foundation; Hatzfeld FoundationHatzfeld Foundation

peer-reviewedpeer-reviewed www.chernobylreport.orgwww.chernobylreport.org

OVERVIEWOVERVIEW

1.1. IntroductionIntroduction

2.2. How much radioactivity discharged How much radioactivity discharged

3.3. Where did the cloud goWhere did the cloud go

4.4. Health effects Health effects

5.5. Collective dosesCollective doses

6.6. Predicted excess cancer deathsPredicted excess cancer deaths

7.7. ConclusionsConclusions

Introduction - official quotesIntroduction - official quotes

“…“…foremost nuclear catastrophe in foremost nuclear catastrophe in human history” IAEA (1996) human history” IAEA (1996)

“… “… by far, the worst industrial by far, the worst industrial disaster on record” IAEA/WHO disaster on record” IAEA/WHO (2005a) (2005a)

Chernobyl radioactivity 200 times Chernobyl radioactivity 200 times that from Hiroshima and Nagasaki - that from Hiroshima and Nagasaki - WHO/IPHECA (1995) WHO/IPHECA (1995)

DispersalDispersalsource: source: ARAC, Lawrence Livermore Research Laboratory, California, US (reproduced from OECD (2002)ARAC, Lawrence Livermore Research Laboratory, California, US (reproduced from OECD (2002)

Main Radionuclides PBq=10PBq=101515 Bq Bq

Nuclide Nuclide Half-lifeHalf-life Core Inventory Core Inventory April 26 1986April 26 1986

Estimated % Estimated % ReleasedReleased

Te-129mTe-129m 33.6 days33.6 days 1,040 PBq1,040 PBq ~23%~23%

Te-132Te-132 3.26 days3.26 days 4,2004,200 ~27%~27%

I-131I-131 8.04 days8.04 days 3,1803,180 ~56%~56%

I-133I-133 0.9 days0.9 days 6,7006,700 37%37%

Cs-134Cs-134 2.06 years2.06 years 150150 ~36%~36%

Cs-137Cs-137 30.0 years30.0 years 260 260 ~33%~33%

Sr-90Sr-90 29.1 years29.1 years 220220 ~5%~5%

Ru-106Ru-106 1.01 years1.01 years 850850 >9%>9%Source: UNSCEAR 2000

Main RadionuclidesMain Radionuclides

Cs-137 remains worldwide Cs-137 remains worldwide Sr-90 remains <100 kmSr-90 remains <100 km I-131 important for ~3 months I-131 important for ~3 months

after the explosionsafter the explosions long-lived alpha-emitters <100 long-lived alpha-emitters <100

kmkm

Cs-137 Contamination - Cs-137 Contamination - AreaArea% of surface area % of surface area

4 - 40 kBq/m4 - 40 kBq/m22 Cs-137 Cs-137

SwitzerlandSwitzerland 85%85%

AustriaAustria 83 %83 %

CzechoSlovakiaCzechoSlovakia 78 %78 %

IrelandIreland 68 %68 %

GreeceGreece 51 %51 %

NorwayNorway 49 %49 %

GermanyGermany 44 %44 %

FinlandFinland 41 % 41 %

United KingdomUnited Kingdom 34 %34 %

PolandPoland 27 % 27 %

SwedenSweden 26 % 26 %

Contamination (Cs-137) Contamination (Cs-137) PBq APBq Amountsmounts

sources: sources: EC Atlas (1998) * USDoE (1987)EC Atlas (1998) * USDoE (1987)

Russia (European)Russia (European) 2929 RumaniaRumania 2.12.1

BelarusBelarus 1515 GermanyGermany 1.91.9

UkraineUkraine 1313 AustriaAustria 1.81.8

YugoslaviaYugoslavia 5.4*5.4* PolandPoland 1.21.2

FinlandFinland 3.83.8 GreeceGreece 0.950.95

Sweden Sweden 3.53.5 ItalyItaly 0.930.93

BulgariaBulgaria 2.7*2.7* FranceFrance 0.930.93

NorwayNorway 2.52.5 UKUK 0.880.88

% of total emitted Cs-137 in % of total emitted Cs-137 in Belarus, Ukraine and RussiaBelarus, Ukraine and Russia

US DoE 1988US DoE 1988 ~33 %~33 %

UNSCEAR 1988 UNSCEAR 1988 44 %44 %

UNSCEAR 2000UNSCEAR 2000 47 %47 %

Residual radionuclides – PBqResidual radionuclides – PBq

Nuclide Half-life -years

1986 2006* 2056

Sr-90 28.8 8 4.9 1.5

Cs-137 30.1 85 54 17

Pu-239 24,400 0.03 0.03 0.03

sources: Dreicer et al, 1996 *Torch, 2006

Restrictions Still in PlaceRestrictions Still in Place

UK:UK: 370 farms (>750 km370 farms (>750 km22) and ) and 200,000 sheep200,000 sheep

Sweden, Finland:Sweden, Finland: stock animals, reindeerstock animals, reindeer parts of parts of Germany, Austria, Italy, Sweden, Germany, Austria, Italy, Sweden,

Finland, Lithuania, Poland:Finland, Lithuania, Poland: wild boar,deer, wild boar,deer, wild mushrooms, berries, carnivore fishwild mushrooms, berries, carnivore fish

Germany:Germany: Cs-137 in wild boar averages 7 Cs-137 in wild boar averages 7 kBq/kg >10 x EU limit of 0.6 kBq/kg kBq/kg >10 x EU limit of 0.6 kBq/kg

EC Commission (2005)EC Commission (2005)Andris Piebalgs, European Energy Commissioner, written answer to Question Andris Piebalgs, European Energy Commissioner, written answer to Question

P-1234/05DE by MEP Rebecca Harms - April 4, 2005P-1234/05DE by MEP Rebecca Harms - April 4, 2005

“…“…it is not possible to conclude it is not possible to conclude that there will be any further that there will be any further substantial decrease over the substantial decrease over the next decades, except due to next decades, except due to the radioactive decay of Cs-the radioactive decay of Cs-137 and Sr-90 ...”137 and Sr-90 ...”

Cs-137 Air Activity/Body BurdenCs-137 Air Activity/Body BurdenBelgian Nuclear Research Centre (SCK.CEN) MolBelgian Nuclear Research Centre (SCK.CEN) Mol

http://www.sckcen.be/sckcen_en/publications/brochures/tsjernobyl/20jaar/tsjernobyl20_EN.pdfhttp://www.sckcen.be/sckcen_en/publications/brochures/tsjernobyl/20jaar/tsjernobyl20_EN.pdf

4.2 4.2 Health EffectsHealth Effects

• thyroid cancerthyroid cancer• leukaemialeukaemia• solid cancerssolid cancers• non-cancer effectsnon-cancer effects• heritable effectsheritable effects• mental health + psychosocial effectsmental health + psychosocial effects

4.34.3Thyroid Cancer IncidenceThyroid Cancer Incidenceper 100,000 children and adolescentsper 100,000 children and adolescents

source: Jacob source: Jacob et alet al (2005) (2005)

Thyroid Cancer Incidence Thyroid Cancer Incidence (2)(2)

Incidence per 100 000 in Belarus

0.3

6.9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Cas

es p

er 1

00 0

00

Children (0 -14)

Adolescents (15 - 18)Adults (19 - 34)

Adolescents

Children

Young adults

How many more excess How many more excess thyroid cancers?thyroid cancers?

Cardis E, Amoros E and Kesminiene A (1999)Cardis E, Amoros E and Kesminiene A (1999)

Cardis et al (1999) estimateCardis et al (1999) estimate

18,000 - 66,000 in Belarus 18,000 - 66,000 in Belarus alonealone

18,000 assumes 40 years18,000 assumes 40 years 66,000 assumes whole life66,000 assumes whole life

Cancer Incidence in controls

Incidence in liquidators

Increased risk

All sites 373.3 449.3 20%*

Bladder 10.9 17.0 55%*

Colon 17.0 22.3 31%*

Lung 52.4 67.3 28%*

Kidney 14.8 17.9 21%

Stomach 41.7 44.9 8%

Breast ♀ 58.6 61.3 5%

Rectum 19.0 18.4 -3%

Increase in cancer incidence (per 100,000 population)

in Belarus liquidators 1997-2000, compared with control adults in least contaminated area (20-85 )

source: Okeanov et al (2004) *statistically significant differences

Non-cancer diseases Non-cancer diseases (in Japanese bomb survivors) (in Japanese bomb survivors)

source: Preston source: Preston et alet al, 2003, 2003all statistically significant all statistically significant

DISEASEDISEASE Increased risk %Increased risk %

respiratoryrespiratory 18%18%

heartheart 17%17%

digestivedigestive 15%15%

strokestroke 12%12%

Collective Doses in W Europe Collective Doses in W Europe person Sv person Sv

fromfrom OECD/NEA (1996) first year x 3.3)

Italy 92,000

West Germany 60,000

Austria 16,600

Greece 12,000

Finland 8,300

UK 7,000

Sweden 5,600

Switzerland 4,600

France 4,300

Predicted Excess Cancer Predicted Excess Cancer Deaths from Chernobyl in Deaths from Chernobyl in

B.U.R.B.U.R.Population Number Average

dose SvCancer type Predicted excess

cancer deaths

Liquidators (1986-87)

200,000 0.1 solid cancers 2,000

leukaemias 200

Evacuees from 30 km zone

135,000 0.01 solid cancers 150

leukaemias 10

Residents of SCZs 270,000 0.05 solid cancers 1,500

leukaemias 100

Residents of low contamin areas

6,800,000 0.007 solid cancers 4,600

leukaemias 370

TOTAL 9,000

from lifetime exposure of 95 years

source: table 16.4 in IAEA/WHO (2005a) except total

Predicted Excess Cancer Predicted Excess Cancer Deaths from Chernobyl in Deaths from Chernobyl in

B.U.R.B.U.R.

IAEA Press Release (2005) 4,000

full IAEA Report (2005)ie from Cardis et al (1996)

9,000

Predicted Excess Cancer Predicted Excess Cancer Deaths from Chernobyl – worldDeaths from Chernobyl – world

US DoE,1988 28,000

UNSCEAR, 1988 30,000

TORCH, 2006 30,000 - 60,000

ConclusionsConclusions

50% Chernobyl fallout in W Europe50% Chernobyl fallout in W Europe 40% of Europe land area contaminated 40% of Europe land area contaminated 30,000-60,000 cancer deaths30,000-60,000 cancer deaths 18,000-66,000 thyroid cancers in 18,000-66,000 thyroid cancers in

BelarusBelarus other solid cancers now appearingother solid cancers now appearing residual Cs-137 levels in forest foods, residual Cs-137 levels in forest foods,

sheep, reindeer in W Europesheep, reindeer in W Europe Cs-137 contamination will remain for Cs-137 contamination will remain for

hundreds of yearshundreds of years

Questions about more nuclear Questions about more nuclear power power

prudent to say no more accidents? prudent to say no more accidents? a Sustainable Development?a Sustainable Development? consistent with the Precautionary consistent with the Precautionary

Principle?Principle? ethical to pass radioactive wastes to ethical to pass radioactive wastes to

future generations?future generations? ethical to increase weapons ethical to increase weapons

proliferation?proliferation?

George SantayanaGeorge Santayanaphilosopher (philosopher (1863 - 19521863 - 1952))

...governments that are ...governments that are unable to learn from unable to learn from

history are condemned history are condemned to repeat it...to repeat it...