The Chemical world This week

Chemical company executives this last week of June are wrapping up what has been their best six months in the past six years. A classic eco­nomic recovery pattern continues to unfold for the basic chemical in­dustry. And the now well-estab­lished upsurge will carry through the second half of 1972 and well into 1973, at least.

This is the comforting picture that emerges from current industry performance figures, from com­pany statements, and from very early indications of second-quarter earnings.

The industry is already enjoying increased demand and production, sharply improved productivity, bet­ter plant utilization, and improved sales and earnings—the classic pat­tern for the early stages of a recov­ery.

As the upward movement con­tinues and matures a pickup in hir­ing (see following story), an overall improvement in the chemical price situation, and an upsurge in capital investment by the industry can all be confidently expected. So far there has been no general pickup in employment by basic chemical com­panies. However, there are some signs of greater hiring by the chemi­cal and allied products industry, a grouping that includes drug com­panies and other chemically related concerns as well as basic chemical firms.

Du Pont chief economist Charles Reeder is one chemical industry ob­server who has accurately called the shots for this year. He was one of the early optimists, and last fall he was calling for a strong chemical industry performance in 1972. He tells C&EN that he certainly has no reason to change his prediction now; further, he is about as bullish for 1973.

Economist Reeder's forecast of last fall called for production of chemicals and allied products to be 8.9% higher this year than in 1971, with basic chemicals up 7.0% and synthetic materials up 16%. The industry is well on this schedule. In April—the latest month for which data are available—produc­tion of chemicals and allied prod­ucts was 10% higher than in April 1971, with basic chemicals up 7.8% and synthetics up 22%.

Mr. Reeder says he sees no signs of any topping out of the current recovery. As he sees it, the recovery is still in its fairly early stages with further boosts still to come from in­creased consumer demand and from inventory buildup.

The latest industry performance data testify to the strength of the recovery, especially in synthetic ma­terials. For instance, the Textile Economics Bureau puts total ship­ments of man-made fibers during the first four months of this year at a little more than 2.1 billion pounds —almost 18% higher than in the same period last year. And this fol­lows a strong performance last year when fiber production was 13% higher than in 1970.

The current upsurge is even more startling for plastics resins, espe­cially thermoplastics. Through April this year the year-to-year pro­duction gains are 29% for polypro­

pylene, 28% for high-density poly­ethylene, 27% for both polystyrene and polyvinyl chloride, and 21% for low-density polyethylene.

Inorganics have been relatively slow in joining any upward move­ment. (They have been held back by the slow pickup in total U.S. in­dustrial production.) But some big inorganics are finally on the move. For instance, chlorine and caustic production was up 6% in the first quarter this year. Last year it fell 4%.

As to the longer term outlook, Mr. Reeder says the overall econ­omy looks good for 1973 and that the chemical industry should go along with it. He expects about a 9% increase in gross national prod­uct next year. This compares with about a 10% gain he predicts this year. He also expects the rate of inflation to drop to 3.5% this year and to 3.3% next.

Job picture for new grads improves The job picture for 1972 graduates in chemistry appears to have im­proved considerably since earlier this year. According to a special survey by the College Placement Council, Bethlehem, Pa., chemical and drug companies have hired or plan to hire 52% more graduates this year than last year. Hiring for 1972 is still way below the level of even two years ago, however. And the 52% increase in hiring of gradu­ates follows 1971's decline of 45% in hiring.

Still it seems that the better for­tunes of the chemical and drug in­dustry in the first half of 1972 have been translated into more jobs than was expected. A CPC hiring survey taken in mid-December 1971 showed that chemical and drug companies anticipated only a 14% increase in hiring of 1972 graduates. And a C&EN survey of major employers of chemists taken in March (C&EN, March 27, page 10) indicated that hiring of new graduates would be up only slightly from 1971.

The job outlook for graduates has brightened in fields other than chemicals and drugs since CPC's December survey. A notable exam­ple is aerospace. In December aero­space employers anticipated 7%

fewer hires than last season but ended the 1972 academic year with 43% more hires. Most likely the increase was a result of renewed activity in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's space shuttle program.

Overall, in all disciplines at all degree levels, 782 employers re­sponding to the CPC survey indicate that they have hired or plan to hire 6% more college graduates than a year ago. The survey covered posi­tions available in business, indus­try, government, and nonprofit or­ganizations, but did not include teaching positions. The 782 em­ployers said they will hire 47,600 people compared with 45,000 last year, but still short of the 70,000 col­lege graduates these employers hired in 1970.

At the bachelor's level this year, the demand for majors in science and mathematics is up 4%, although hiring of engineering candidates stayed at about the same level as a year ago. Engineering hires at the master's level are up 33%, science and math hires are up 23% from last year. Hiring of engineering doctorates is up 36% over last year; hires of science and math doctor­ates are up 17%.

2 CAEN JUNE 26, 1972

CHEMICAL RECOVERY CONTINUES STRONG

in Brief:

As the first half of 1972 comes to a close, the basic chemical Industry continues Its strong recovery from the 1970 recession and the eco­nomic sluggishness of 1971. And chemical makers seem set fair tor an equally strong second half. (See facing page)

The lob situation tor 1972 gradu­ates in chemistry appears to have improved considerably since earlier this year. Chemical and drug com-panies have hired or plan to hire 52% more graduates this year than last year. (See facing page)

Small R&D firms (annual revenues ot $10 million or less) have faced hard times for the past few years as the Government has reduced spending on space and defense R&D. What these firms want is a bigger slice of federal R&D money, and it seems now that the Govern­ment is willing to try to help. (See page 5)

Freer access to federally held In-formation is likely as federal agen­cies look at their use of the Free­dom of Information Act and as a House subcommittee investigates the issue. The aim of these moves is fewer confidential documents and less use of the trade secrets cate­gory to exempt material from public scrutiny. (See page 8)

Progress In search for and study of DNA polymerases was aired by several research groups at a sym­posium on molecular biology. The meeting centered on cellular modi­fication and genetic transformation by exogenous nucleic acids. (See page 11)

Chemical education at U.S. univer­sities seems to be good enough; what is wrong Is the attitude of graduates toward Industry, say

participants at a University of Dela­ware symposium. Attendees fo­cused on reasons why changes in chemical education suggested at earlier symposiums have not mate­rialized. (See page 12)

There are growing indications that hydrogen may be the principal fuel ot the future. Unlike fossil fuels, hydrogen will not be a source material but an "energy carrier" with more flexibility than anything now known. Although fossil fuels will continue to supply energy worldwide for many years, produc­tion will troll off in the middle of the next century. (See page 14)

A technical error in the method used to measure nitrogen dioxide concentrations in air may mean that the air in much of the U.S. is cleaner with respect to nitrogen oxides than was previously believed. (See page 18)

The new ACS Division ot Profes­sional Relations (Probationary) has appointed its officers and named an executive committee. In a separate action, the ACS Board of Directors has approved 71 ACS-PRF grants for fundamental re­search on petroleum. (See page 19)

Chemical & Engineering News June 26, 1972 Volume 50, Number 26

1 Editorial 2 The Chemical World This Week

In Brief: In Passing:

Concentrates 4 Industry/Government/International

10 Science/Eduoation/Technology

The Departments 5 Industry/Business S Government

11 Science 12 Education 14 Technology 19 ACS News/People 32 Newscripts 32 Letters

Cover design: Joe Phillips

in Passing:

A Zeppelin in your future We hear a lot these days of Chet Huntley's reworked 707's and Am-trak's roomy trains, but neither can match the combined comfort, lux­ury, and speed of the airship (as buffs like to call them, though oth­ers may prefer "dirigible" or "Zeppelin"). Sadly, the 1937 Hin-denburg disaster at Lakehurst, N.J., put a fiery end to the commercial airship, last in a series of similar ca­lamities that dogged the craft through almost 40 years of develop­ment. The culprit in most cases was, of course, hydrogen. And in­deed, except possibly for chemists, hydrogen conjures up the Hinden-burg's fireball. (For more on hy­drogen, see page 14.)

But availability of helium has re­vived interest in the breed, and in Germany, at least one group visual­izes tourist excursions via airships. Promoters envision Mediterranean cruises and talk of "the sonorous drone of the diesels in their sepa­rate gondolas" and "cocktail glass in hand over the Golden Horn!"

But puffery aside, designer Theo-dor Wullenkemper of the Westdeut-schen Luftwerbung in Essen-Mul-heim is actually at work on a first model that's about 60 meters long, can lift 1.5 tons. He hopes to sell it to the Japanese or French. Next

i may come a 150-passenger, 120-meter tourist model.

Such airships would trace their lineage back through 130 models to Zeppelin No. 1, brainchild of Count Ferdinand Zeppelin, which lifted off on July 2, 1900. Zeppelin had re­tired from the army at 53 to con­centrate on building the craft. But it was Dr. Hugo Eckener who really pushed developments, after Zeppe­lin's death in 1917. Eckener had made exploratory voyages in the famous Schwaben in 1911-12, in­cluding one near the North Pole. Eckener's pioneering culminated in the commercial success of the Graf Zeppelin (airship No. LZ127) and the Hindenburg (No. LZ129). The latter, 250 meters long, 200,000 cubic meters in volume, could carry 72 passengers up to 8700 miles at 60 mph. But it shared the fate of Zeppelin No. 4, first to go up in flames in 1908, and all the others.

Still, Eckener never lost the faith, and, before his death in 1954, "de­creed" that airships would again "travel the skies." Wullenkemper may be able to fill that order.

JUNE 26, 1972 C&EN 3