chat palmer energy and wind[1]

8/8/2019 CHAT Palmer Energy and Wind[1]

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Energy & The Wind

Presented to CHAT & HEAT

Central Huron Against Turbines & Huron East Against Turbines

Public Meeting - REACH Centre, Clinton ON

by

Bill Palmer - Sept. 16, 2010

[email protected]



Control of Energy Let

Civilization Develop Without control of energy mankind was at the

whim of the surroundings

As population grows and expectations of civilization increases, the demand for energygrows

We are going to look at the role of wind power

in meeting those needs, and implications of that role: ± To the generating system

± To public safety

± To public health via noise



http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange2/current/lectures/

human_pop/human_pop.html

Population Growth - in Years Before Present



Developing vs Developed Population

EarthTrends (http://earthtrends.wri.org) Searchable Database

01000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Year 1990 Year 2000 Year 2005

P o p u l a t i o n

i n M i l l i o n s

Developed Nations Developing Nations



Developing vs Developed Energy Use

EarthTrends (http://earthtrends.wri.org) Searchable Database

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Year 1990 Year 2000 Year 2005

M

i l l i o n T o n

n e s o f O i l

E q u i v

a l e n t

Developed Countries Developing Countries



What Injustice, you say? How can developing countries dare

increase their energy demands by (for

example) 68% (India) to 99% (China)from 1990 to 2005?

In the same period of time, Europedecreased their total energyconsumption by 6%

Is not that the way we should be going?



Pause for a Reality Check

Nearly 2.7 billion people are living on less than twodollars a day.

Most women in the developing world walk more than

5 kilometers everyday in search of water and firewood.

Every year, 6 million children, mostly under the age of 5, die from diseases that are completely preventable.

Worldwide, more than 114 million children do not get even a basic education.

http://www.hope-international.com/projects-and-programs.html



And We Ask about Injustice?



World Energy Contributions 2006

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0

Petr leum

Coal

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Renewable - Hy raulic

Renewable- Biomass

Renewable - Wind

Renewable - Geot ermal

Renewable - olar, Wave, ide

PWh



Energy Per Person - Canada & ChinaMWh per Person Year for Each Component

R e s i

e n t i l

m m e r c i

l

I n d u

s t r i

l

rn s p o

r tt i o n

E l e c t r i c

l L o s s e s

China Wh/p-yr

Canada Wh/p-yr.

.

.

.

..

.

.

.

.



How Energy Used - Canada & ChinaPercentage of Total Use by Each Component

R e s

i d e n

t i a l

C o

e ri a l

n d u s

t r i a l

T r a n

s p o r t a t i o

n

E l e

t r i

a l o s

s e s

China

Canada0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%



Let¶s Look at the Future

Up to now, we have focused on actualhistorical experience and known facts

There are large energy demands, which willcontinue to rise as developing nations use

more to provide necessities of life to billions There is a limited availability of conventional

resources, based on projected consumption

There is evidence climate is changing, but

whether this is caused by energy use or notmay not be the most critical factor - after weconsume all available resources, civilizationwill suffer - What options have we?



Consider Growth Again

Fuel %/yr

2006-2030

Oil 0.9%

Coal 1.7%

Gas 1.6%

Nuclear 1. 5%



Who Has Known Reserves?

Fuel Countries With Top 60% of Reserves

Petroleum Saudi Arabia 19.9%, Canada 13.3%,Iran 10.1%, Iraq 8.6%, Kuwait 7.7%,

Venezuela 7.4%Coal USA 28.3%, Russia 18.6%, China

13.6%

NaturalGas

Russia 26.9%, Iran 15.9%,Qatar 14.3%, Saudi Arabia 4.1%

Nuclear Australia 22%, Kazakhstan 11%,Canada 10%, USA 10%,

South Africa 8%



What Known Reserves Exist?Fuel Known

Reserve

Lasts x yrs

@ currentrate

Lasts y yrs

@ projectedrate

Petroleum 1342 Billionbarrels

44 37

Coal 930 Billionshort tons

138 71

Natural Gas 6254

Trillion cu ft

60 42

Nuclear 3.3 MillionTons

50 (noadditionalrecycling)

38 (norecycling) to100¶s (with

recycling)



Years Reserve

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

930,423 Short

ons

6254.364 rillion

Cu ft

1342.207 Billion

Barrels

3.3 illion

Tonnes

Coal atural Gas Petroleum Uranium

Fuel Type and Current Reser e

Years Reser e @Current Rate Years Reser e @ Projected Rate

With

recycling,

uranium

supplies predicted

to last

100¶s of

years



That Other Resource - Money

We need to make sure that we aredoing the best we can with limitednatural resources, but also with limited

financial resources We need to ask some questions about

decisions, that are made without

thinking through the evidence World wide, national debt is a significant

problem, and a ticking time bomb



Consider Canada - 2006 EmissionsCanada Greenhouse Gases 2006

16%

21%

6%

0%

5%6%

0%

26%

8%

0%

9%3%

Electricity and Heat Generation Total Fossil Industry

Manufacturing Industry Construction

Commercial & Institutional Residential

Agriculture & Forestry Transportation

Industrial Proceses Solvent & Ot er Product

Agriculture Waste



Canada¶s 26.4% Transport PartTransportation Contributors

4%

20%

24%

3%

0%

0%

1%

20%

0%

4%

3%

21%

Civil Aviation Light uty Gas Cars

Light uty Gas Trucks Heavy uty Gas Trucks

Motorcycles Light uty iesel Vehicles

Light uty iesel Trucks Heavy uty iesel Vehicles

Propane & Natural Gas Vehicles Railways

Navigation Other Transport



Adding Wind to the Mix Ontario has about 6600 MW of coal, is headed to

11,000 MW of Natural Gas and 6000 + MW of Wind In 2009, Ontario Wind Turbines produced 80% of

capacity less than 3% of the time, less than 15% of capacity 40% of the time, with average cf of 27.6%

in summer of 2010, on 40% of days wind output wasless than 5% for sustained periods of 5 hours or more

On some days > 5000 MW of coal & > 7000 MW gaswas on line, plus all available hydro and > 9000 MW

nuclear - wind output was < 54 MW of available 1085. Coal replacement will done by natural gas, not wind

Canada has an assured gas supply of 10 years, andOntario decision increases provincial natural gas

demand 40%



Wind Turbines in Ontario

Currently 1248 MW - 724 turbines ± Melancthon - 199.5 MW - 133 turbines

:ROIH,VODQG0: WXUELQHV

3ULQFH7ZS0: WXUELQHV

(QEULGJH0: WXUELQHV

3RUW$OPD0: WXUELQHV

(ULH6KRUHV 0: WXUELQHV ± Ripley - 76 MW - 38 turbines

± Kingsbridge I - 39.6 MW - 22 turbines

± Others < 10 MW each - 163 MW - 99 turbines



Ontario Wind Turbine Plan

In Service Now - 1248 MW, 724 turbines

Under construction now - 689.6 MW

Samsung contract Feb 2010 - 2000 MW +OPA Approved Apr 2010 - 1229 + 300 MW

+OPA Listed awaiting ECT - 5561.7 + 30 MW

+Others known Trillium - 700 MW

+Others (eg. North Bruce, etc) - 200 to 400 MW

Total > 12,000 MW



Ontario Winter Week



Ontario Summer Week



Ontario Fall Week



Ontario Christmas Week



Ontario In Service WindTurbine Output - 2009

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

0 t o

5 %

6 t o

1 0 %

1 1 t o 1 5

%

1 6 t o 2 0

%

2 1 t o 2 5 %

2 6 t o 3 0

%

3 1 t o 3 5

%

3 6 t o 4 0 %

4 1 t o 4 5

%

4 6 t o 5 0

%

5 1 t o 5 5

%

5 6 t o 6 0

%

6 1 t o 6 5

%

6 6 t o 7 0

%

7 1 t o 7 5

%

7 6 t o 8 0

%

8 1 t o 8 5

%

8 6 t o 9 0

%

9 1 t o 9 5

%

9 6 t o 1 0 0 %

Percent utput



Average Hourly Demand andTurbine Capacity Factor



The Need for Storage Some generating techniques need storage of

energy to be able to use it when demanded ± Solar

± Wind

Need to cost in the future costs of fixed pricecontracts and capital writeoff



Storage System Comparisons - Wh/kg

To store output from a 2.5 MW wind turbine for 8 hours = 20 MWh



Flywheel Storage System

Flywheel at theCERN FusionResearch Facility

Weighs 800 tons(727,000 kg)

Spinning at 225 rpmstores 1 MWh

energy density is ~ 1Wh / kg

Would need 20 of these for each 2.5MW wind turbine tostore 8 hours of

excess generation



Premium Price Paid - Wind In 2009 (Dec 30, 2008 to Dec 29, 2009)

assuming $135 a MWh for wind, $309,604,069would be paid to wind turbine operators,$242,589,404.61 above the the hourly OntarioElectricity Price of $67,014,664.85

On Sept 4, 2010, a good day for wind, thepremium paid to wind above spot prices wouldexceed $2,000,000 for one day based on $135.

If we had 6000 MW of turbines, the premium

would be $1.6 Billion a year, plus the taxes loston depreciation of about $4 Billion a year

This is available only when the wind is blowing,not premium power available when needed

None of this costs in storage needs



Need To Consider Public Risk

Ontario has had two cases of wind turbineblades falling to the ground in ~ 1200 turbineyears in service, for a failure rate of 1700 x10-6 failures per turbine year.

For other generating plants, we areconcerned if the failure rate is 1 x 10-6 failuresper operating year.

In the 2 years of 2008 and 2009 there havebeen 35 known cases of wind turbine bladesfalling in world experience, for a failure rate of 212 x 10-6 failures per turbine year

This means setback from turbines needs tobe carefully assessed to address risk



Blades Can Fail

Prince Wind Farm - Jan 08 Port Burwell - Apr 07

Denmark - Feb. 2008 - parts of wind turbine blades travel 500 metres from tower inturbine accident. Ontario turbines have a blade failure rate 4 x as great as seen in

European study - possibly as taller, and more severe weather.



Public Safety Risk - Towers Can Collapse

Oklahoma US Aug 2005GE

Japan Jan 2007Vestas

Oregon USA

Aug 2007Siemens



Risk Impacts on Setbacks



Risk of Ice Throw



The Issue of Public Health We hear ³ there is no scientific evidence that

noise at the levels created by wind turbinescould cause health problems other thanannoyance´ (2003, Pedersen)

We do not hear in 2007 Pedersen said ³ wind

turbine noise induced annoyance at SPLsbelow those known to be annoying for other sources of community noise « wind turbinenoise could reduce the possibilities of

psychophysical restoration and adverse effectson health and well-being can therefore not beexcluded´

2009 Pedersen said, ³ Tell them in Ontario they

are wrong´ (that there was no need for more study)



Wind Profile Changes at Night



Understanding Noise from Turbines



The Effect of Weighting Sound



The Effect of A Weighting



Ontario Demand 695 TWH - by Sector

37.2% of Total 29.3% of Total

15.2% 18.3%



Using Wind Generators Pickering NGS, on a site of 12 km2, supplied

4000 MWh per hour, (~ 30 TWh per year or 4%of Ontario¶s demand) within 50 km of users

Ontario¶s 625 wind generators tracked by IESO(rated at 1085 MW), located at preferred sites,produced 2.3 TWh in 2009. To produce 31TWh as Pickering did, would need ~ 8400turbines + storage and collection infrastructure

Enbridge has 110 turbines in 168km2, so 8400

turbines would need about 13,000 km2, or ALLof Bruce, Grey, Simcoe, and Huron Counties

The infrastructure to collect and send theenergy to users would be a further problem



There¶s No Free Ride

Every choice has cost and risk impacts: ± Consider impacts on environment for people near any generating source, public safety, noise, pollution

± Consider impact of substitution choices, doesfocusing generation using scarce resources like

natural gas make sense? What do we do when itruns out? Cost impacts of increasing demand?

± Are we focusing on the biggest contributors to theproblem? If Natural gas and petrochemicals have thebiggest demands, using 41% of energy each, and

have the shortest life, why does the major Ontarioinitiative focus on coal generation, when it demandsonly 13%, and has perhaps twice the reserve life?

± Why is the debate on nuclear about long term ³wastedisposal´ without consideration of ³reprocessing?´



Pulling the Threads Together

Our present path leads to problems, increasinggreenhouse gases, but will be worse soon as: ± Conventional fuel resources have very limited reserves -

in the order of 1 human lifetime

± Demands are increasing, largely as developing nationsuse more energy, mostly producing goods for thedeveloped world, but also providing a better life at home

± Renewable options are possible but will be very costlydue to the infrastructure to capture low grade energy and

to store received energy for use when needed - tell it all ± Why burn fossil fuels? We need them for many uses -lubricants and chemical feed stock - plastics & fertilizer

± Recycling nuclear fuel give an option of delaying somecost increases for storage options



The Last Word

Our actions and choices should not hurtour neighbour (all cultures share a form of ³the Golden Rule´)

³And who is my neighbour?´ the lawyer

asked Jesus - who told the story of theGood Samaritan in Luke 10, ending, ³And who do you think was neighbour to theone who fell among thieves?´ (the one

who helped the person who was hurting) Jesus concluded, ³Go then and do

likewise.´



K nown Industrial Size Turbine Failures ± Resulting in

Blades on the Ground

Jan 2008 to Dec 2009List Compiled From Public Records

Dec 2009, all 75 blades removed from 25 Gamesa 2MW turbines in Kumeyaay Wind Project due to

damage. Up to 1/3 of some blades lost to ground.Calif. USA

Dec 2009, 1.5 MW GE wind turbine in New York State(Fenner Wind Farm) collapses after loss of power.

Cause under investigation. USA. Nov 2009, 2.1 MW Suzlon wind turbine at Siif

Energies Praia Formosa development ³exploded´loosing a blade per the Journal of Energy, Brazil.



Nov 2009, 1.5 MW turbine at Acciona ± Aibar WindDevelopment, nacelle, blades, and top third of prototypeconcrete tower (installed in 2006) collapse, Spain.

Nov 2009, Vestas V47 turbine failure one blade lands onpath used by hikers (Falkenberg), Sweden.

Nov 2009, Wincon turbine ± defective axle causes allblades of 40 m high turbine to come loose, one hit a

power transformer (Esbjerg), Denmark. ( Since 2000 there have been 27 incidents in Denmark of

turbine blades becoming loose.) Oct 2009, Vestas V90 turbine failure, braking fails in

winds of 30 metres/sec, Sweden.

Sept 2009, blade failure, second in 15 months, 56 mturbine, Sheffield U, UK. Jul 2009, Vestas V80 turbine looses blade after lightning

strike, broken blade travels 150 metres, Germany.



Jun 2009, GE 1.5 MW turbine blade failure followinglightning strike, MO, USA.

May 2009, Wind turbine blade falls off and ontohighway A6, Lelystad, the Netherlands.

May 2009, turbine overspeeds and collapses, NorthPalm Springs, CA, USA.

April 2009, wind turbine failure, and collapse, CA, USA.

Mar 2009, GE 1.5 MW turbine blade failure in Illinois,USA.

Mar 2009, GE 1.5 MW turbine collapses at NobleEnvironmental site when blades spin out of control, NYState, USA.

Feb 2009, turbine collapses when under constructionas blades spin out of control, Waverly, Idaho, USA.

Jan 2009, Enercon turbine looses one 20 m blade andsecond damaged by unknown cause, UK.



Dec 2008, Vestas V90 turbine blade damage - piecestravel to home 490 m away, PEI, Canada.

Oct 2008, 42 m long blade breaks off turbine, Illinois,USA.

Oct 2008, turbine blade contacts tower, buckles it,collapses VT, USA.

Jun 2008, blade failure, 2 months after in service, 56 m

turbine, Sheffield U, UK. May 2008, blade failure Vestas V47 turbine, full 23 m

long blade broke off, the Netherlands . May 2009, Suzlon turbine fire, blades come off in fire.

Minn, USA. Apr 2008, 2 turbines loose 37 m long blades in storm,

Japan. Mar 2008 ± 10 metre section breaks off wind turbine

blade, flies 200 metres, Italy.

Mar 2008 Lagerway turbine collapse the



Mar 2008 ± Lagerway turbine collapse, theNetherlands.

Feb 2008 - Vestas turbine looses blade - travels 100

m, Denmark. Feb 2008 - (another) Vestas turbine blades contact

tower, tower collapses, blade pieces travel up to 500m, Denmark.

Feb 2008 - (another) Vestas turbine looses blade -

Sweden. Feb 2008 - blade failure Norway.

Feb 2008 - Vestas turbine looses blade, travels 40metres, Sweden.

Feb 2008 ± turbine collapse, Island of Texel, theNetherlands.

Jan 2008 ± GE 1.5 MW blade failure in winter storm -Prince Wind Farm, ON, Canada.

Jan 2008 - Vestas turbine collapses, Cumbria, UK.

References



References Environment Canada, National Inventory Report, 1990-2006,

Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada

± Website ± http://www.ec.gc.ca/ghg

Natural Resources Canada, Canada¶s Energy Outlook, TheReference Case 2006 - http://www.nrcan-rncan.gc.ca/com/resoress/publications/peo/peo-eng.php

United States, Energy Information Administration, InternationalEnergy Annual 2006

± Website - http://www.eia.doe.gov/iea/overview.html

United States, Energy Information Administration, InternationalEnergy Outlook, 2009

± Website ± http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html

Population Growth over Human History

± http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange2/current/lectures/

human_pop/human_pop.html

R f ti d



References - continued EarthTrends Searchable Database Provided by the World

Resources Institute http://earthtrends.wri.org

Sustainable Energy ² without the hot air, David JC MacKay, UIT

Cambridge, England, 2009 http://www.withouthotair.com

Independent Electrical System Operator of Ontario ± Wind Farm

Output

± http://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/marketdata/windPower.asp

Independent Electrical System Operator of Ontario ± OntarioElectrical Demand

± http://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/marketdata/marketSummary.asp

chat palmer energy and wind[1]

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