charts for inflation report 2/2004. chapter 1. chart 1.1 cpi-ate 1). total and by supplier sector...
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![Page 1: Charts for Inflation Report 2/2004. Chapter 1. Chart 1.1 CPI-ATE 1). Total and by supplier sector 2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04 1) CPI-ATE:](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062519/5697bf731a28abf838c7ed82/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Charts for Inflation Report2/2004
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Chapter 1.
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Chart 1.1 CPI-ATE1). Total and by supplier sector2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2001 2002 2003 2004
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1) CPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products2) Norges Bank's estimatesSources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Goods and services produced in Norway
CPI-ATE
Imported consumer goods
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Chart 1.2 Prices for goods and services produced in Norway1). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2001 2002 2003 2004
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1) Adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products Percentage share of CPI-ATE in brackets. Norges Bank's estimates
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Services produced in Norway (27)
Goods produced in Norway (27)
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Chart 1.3 Employed persons according to LFS. In millions. Seasonally adjusted. Monthly figures. Jan 98 – Mar 04
2,22
2,24
2,26
2,28
2,30
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
2,22
2,24
2,26
2,28
2,30
Source: Statistics Norway
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Chart 1.4 Interest rate expectations. Actual developments and expected key rate1) at 24 Jun 04. 2 Jan 03 – 1 May 06
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2003 2004 2005 20060
1
2
3
4
5
6
1) FRA and futures contracts adjusted for the estimated difference between 3-month money market rates and the key rate Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters and Norges Bank
US
Euro areaNorway
UK
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3
4
5
6
jan 03 mai 03 sep 03 jan 04 mai 04
3
4
5
6
Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank
Chart 1.5 Yield on government bonds with 10 years’ residual maturity. Daily figures.1 Jan 03 – 24 Jun 04
Norway
Germany
US
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Chart 1.6 Import-weighted exchange rate index, I-441). Daily figures. 1 Jan 04 – 24 June 04
92
94
96
98
100
102
jan 04 mar 04 mai 04 jul 04
92
94
96
98
100
102
1)A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate
Source: Norges Bank
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Chapter 2.
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Chart 2.1 GDP. 4-quarter growth. Per cent. 01 Q1 – 04 Q1
-4
-2
1
3
5
2001 2002 2003 2004
-4
-2
1
3
5
Japan
Sources: EcoWin, Statistics Japan, National Statistics (UK), EUR-OP/Eurostat and Bureau of Economic Analysis (US)
US
Euro area
UK
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Chart 2.2 Interest rate expectations. Actual developments and expected key rate1) at 4 March and 24 June 2004. 2 Jan 03 – 1 May 06
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2003 2004 2005 2006
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1) FRA and futures contracts adjusted for the estimated difference between 3-month money market rates and the key rateSources: Bloomberg, Reuters and Norges Bank
UK
Euro area
US4 March24 June
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Chart 2.3 Structural budget balance. Per cent of nominal GDP. Annual figures. 1995 – 20051)
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
1) Estimates for 2003 – 2005
Source: OECD
Euro area
US
Japan
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Chart 2.4 Consumer prices. 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – Jun 04
0
2
4
6
jan 01 jan 02 jan 03 jan 04
0
2
4
6
Sources: EcoWin, EUR-OP/Eurostat, Federal Statistical Office (DE) and Central Statistics Office (IRL)
Ireland
Germany
PortugalEuro area
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Chart 2.5 Consumer prices. 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04
-1
0
1
2
3
4
jan 01 okt 01 jul 02 apr 03 jan 04
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Sources: EcoWin, Statistics Norway, Statistics Sweden, Statistics Finland and Statistics Denmark
Norway(CPI-ATE)
Finland (HICP)
Denmark (HICP)
Sweden (UND1X)
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Chart 2.6 Producer prices. 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 00 – May 04
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
jan 00 jan 01 jan 02 jan 03 jan 04
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Sources: EcoWin, EUR-OP/Eurostat, Bureau of Labor Statistics (US), Statistics Japan, Federal Statistical Office (DE) and National Statistics (UK)
US
Japan
UK Euro area
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Chart 2.7 GDP. Change on same quarter previous year1). Per cent. 01 Q1 – 04 Q1
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2001 2002 2003 2004
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
China
India
1) GDP in India is measured at factor prices
Sources: EcoWin, National Bureau of Statistics (CH), Central Bank of Malaysia, Central Statistical Organisation (I) and Consensus Economics
Malaysia
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1) Brent Blend
Sources: International Petroleum Exchange and Norges Bank
Chart 2.8 Oil price1) in USD per barrel. Daily figures. 1 Jan 01 – 24 Jun 04. Futures prices at 4 Mar 04 and 24 Jun 04
15
20
25
30
35
40
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
15
20
25
30
35
40
Oil price
Futures prices 4 March 04
Futures prices24 June 04
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1) Average from 1 June – 24 June
Sources: London Metal Exchange, HWWA and EcoWin
Chart 2.9 Commodity prices in USD. Index. Jan 1994=100. 3-month moving average. Monthly figures. Jan 94 – Jun 041)
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
50
70
90
110
130
150
170Copper
Coal
Aluminium
Zinc
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Chart 2.10 Wage growth. Change on same quarter previous year. Per cent. 97 Q1 – 04 Q1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1997 1999 2001 2003
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (US), National Statistics (UK) and EUR-OP/Eurostat
US
UK
Euro area
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Chart 2.11 Consumer price inflation. Year-on-year rise. Per cent. 1995 – 20071)
-2
0
2
4
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
-2
0
2
4
1) Estimates for 2004 – 2007
Sources: OECD and Norges Bank
Norway's trading partners
Euro areaUS
Japan
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Chapter 3.
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0
2
4
6
8
10
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
0
2
4
6
8
10
Chart 3.1 Assumption for the money market rate1). Forward interest rate2). Monthly figures. Per cent
1) The money market rate is normally about ¼ percentage point higher than the sight deposit rate2) 3-month money market rate up to May 2004. The 3-month forward rate is estimated using four money market rates and four government bond yields with different maturities as observed on 24 JuneSource: Norges Bank
Forward rate 24 June (assumption IR 2/04)
3-month money market rate
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Chart 3.2 Assumption for the krone exchange rate (I-44)1). Forward exchange rates. Monthly figures
80
90
100
110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
80
90
100
110
1)A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate
Source: Norges Bank
Forward rate 24 June (assumption IR 2/04)
Import-weighted exchange rate, I-44
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1) The output gap is a measure of the difference between actual and trend mainland GDP. Difference in per cent
2) In billions of NOK. Constant 2001 prices3) Estimates for 2004 – 2007 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
500
800
1100
1400
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Chart 3.3 Projections for the output gap1), actual GDP2) and trend GDP2). Annual figures. 1990 – 20073)
Trend GDP (right hand
scale)
Actual GDP (right-hand scale)
Output gap (left-hand scale)
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Chart 3.4 Real growth in household disposable income and consumption. Annual figures. Per cent. 1990 – 20071)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005
0
2
4
6
8
10
1) Estimates for 2004 – 2007
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Real income growth
Real growth in consumption
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Chart 3.5 Seasonally adjusted house prices. NOK 1000 per square metre. Monthly figures. Jan 00 – May 04
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents and Association of Real Estate Agency Firms
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Chart 3.6 Growth in credit1) to households and enterprises. 12-month growth. Per cent. Jan 97 – Apr 04
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
1997 1999 2001 2003
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
Credit to non-financial enterprises
1) From domestic sources (C2)Source: Norges Bank
Credit to households
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Chart 3.7 Investment in mainland Norway as a share of mainland GDP and LFS unemployment. Per cent. Annual figures. 1992 – 20071)
13
15
17
19
21
1992 1996 2000 2004
2.7
3.3
3.9
4.5
5.1
5.7
6.3
LFS unemployment (inverted, right-hand scale)
Investment share (left-hand scale)
1) Estimates for 2004 – 2007
Source: Statistics Norway
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Chart 3.8 Manufacturing output index. Volume. 3-month moving average. Jan 00 – Apr 04
90
94
98
102
106
110
114
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
90
94
98
102
106
110
114
Consumer goods
Intermediate goods
Capital goods
Source: Statistics Norway
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Chart 3.9 Change in structural non-oil budget balance1). Annual figures.1990 – 2004
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 20041) The budget balance as a percentage of trend GDP for mainland Norway, change on previous year
Source: Revised National Budget 2004
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Chart 3.10 Underlying spending growth in the government budget and nominal growth in mainland GDP. Year-on-year growth. Per cent. 1990 – 20041)
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
1) Estimates for 2004
Sources: Ministry of Finance and Statistics Norway
Underlying spending growth
Nominal growth in mainland GDP
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Chart 3.11 Growth in number employed and contributions from the public sector. Annual figures. 1971 – 2003
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
Source: Statistics Norway
Employment growth, per cent
Contribution from public sector, percentage points
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Chart 3.12 Change in employment on previous year, per cent. Unemployment1) as a percentage of the labour force. Annual figures. 1980 – 20072)
0
2
4
6
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005-4
-2
0
2
4
1) LFS unemployment2) Estimates for 2004 – 2007
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
LFS unemployment(left-hand scale)
Number employed(right-hand scale)
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Chart 3.13 Labour force as a percentage of population aged 16–74 (labour force participation rate). Per cent. Annual figures. 1980 – 20071)
65
67
69
71
73
75
65
67
69
71
73
75
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
1) Estimates for 2004 – 2007
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Labour force participation rate
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Chart 3.14 Number of disability pensioners as a percentage of the population (aged 18 – 67) and number of sickness days per employee1). Annual figures. 1980 – 2003
4
6
8
10
12
14
4
6
8
10
12
14
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 20001) Paid by the National Insurance2) Since 2000 the sick pay scheme has also applied to all central government employees. This results in a break in the series between 1999 and 2000 Source: National Insurance Administration
Disability pensioners
Sickness days2)
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Chart 3.15 Developments in number of person-hours worked and the number of employed persons in mainland Norway. Annual figures. Index. 1970=100. 1970 – 2003
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Employment
Person-hours
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
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Chapter 4.
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Chart 4.1 Assumption for the krone exchange rate (I-44)1). Forward exchange rates. Monthly figures
80
90
100
110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
80
90
100
110
1)A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate
Source: Norges Bank
Forward rate 24 June (assumption IR 2/04)
Import-weighted exchange rate, I-44
Forward rate 4 March (assumption IR 1/04)
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0
2
4
6
8
10
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
0
2
4
6
8
10
Chart 4.2 Assumption for the money market rate1). Forward interest rate2). Monthly figures. Per cent
Forward rate 24 June (assumption IR 2/04)
3-month money market rate
Forward rate 4 March (assumption IR 1/04)
1) The money market rate is normally about ¼ percentage point higher than the sight deposit rate2) 3-month money market rate up to May 2004. The 3-month forward rate is estimated using four money market rates and four government bond yields with different maturities as observed on 4 March and 24 JuneSource: Norges Bank
![Page 40: Charts for Inflation Report 2/2004. Chapter 1. Chart 1.1 CPI-ATE 1). Total and by supplier sector 2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04 1) CPI-ATE:](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062519/5697bf731a28abf838c7ed82/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Chart 4.3 CPI-ATE. Seasonally adjusted monthly rise. 3-month moving average, annualised. Oct 03 – Dec 041)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
nov 03 feb 04 mai 04 aug 04 nov 04
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Projections
1) Estimates from Jun 04 – Dec 04Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Historical
![Page 41: Charts for Inflation Report 2/2004. Chapter 1. Chart 1.1 CPI-ATE 1). Total and by supplier sector 2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04 1) CPI-ATE:](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062519/5697bf731a28abf838c7ed82/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Chart 4.4 CPI-ATE. Total and by supplier sector1). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – Dec 072)
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1) Norges Bank's estimates2) Estimates from Jun 04 – Dec 07Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Goods and services produced in Norway
CPI-ATE
Imported consumer goods
![Page 42: Charts for Inflation Report 2/2004. Chapter 1. Chart 1.1 CPI-ATE 1). Total and by supplier sector 2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04 1) CPI-ATE:](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062519/5697bf731a28abf838c7ed82/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
-2
0
2
4
6
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-2
0
2
4
6
Chart 4.5 CPI and CPI-ATE. 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – Dec 071)
CPI
CPI-ATE
1) Estimates from Jun 04 – Dec 07
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
![Page 43: Charts for Inflation Report 2/2004. Chapter 1. Chart 1.1 CPI-ATE 1). Total and by supplier sector 2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04 1) CPI-ATE:](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062519/5697bf731a28abf838c7ed82/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Chart 4.6 CPI and prices for imported consumer goods. Annual figures. Index. 1998=100. 1979 – 2003
30
45
60
75
90
105
120
1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003
30
45
60
75
90
105
120
Consumer price index
Imported consumer goods
Source: Statistics Norway
![Page 44: Charts for Inflation Report 2/2004. Chapter 1. Chart 1.1 CPI-ATE 1). Total and by supplier sector 2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04 1) CPI-ATE:](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062519/5697bf731a28abf838c7ed82/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Chart 4.7 Projected price movements for some imported consumer goods, measured in foreign currency. Quarterly figures. Index. 91 Q1=100. 91 Q1 – 04 Q1
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Sources: EcoWin and Norges Bank
Clothing and footwear
Audiovisual equipment
![Page 45: Charts for Inflation Report 2/2004. Chapter 1. Chart 1.1 CPI-ATE 1). Total and by supplier sector 2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04 1) CPI-ATE:](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062519/5697bf731a28abf838c7ed82/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Chart 4.8 Indicator of external price impulses to imported consumer goods measured in foreign currency. Annual figures. 1995 – 20071)
1) Estimates for 2004 – 2007
Source: Norges Bank
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
![Page 46: Charts for Inflation Report 2/2004. Chapter 1. Chart 1.1 CPI-ATE 1). Total and by supplier sector 2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04 1) CPI-ATE:](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062519/5697bf731a28abf838c7ed82/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Chart 4.9 Prices for imported consumer goods in the CPI and in External Trade Statistics, and I-44. 4-quarter rise. Per cent. 98 Q1 – 04 Q2
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1998 2000 2002 2004
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1) Norges Bank's estimates: Clothing and accessories, footwear, furniture, food and beverages
2) Excluding audiovisual equipment and cars. Observations in April and May 2004 are used as the basis for the second quarter
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
I-44
Imported consumer goods in External Trade Statistics1)
Imported consumer goods in CPI2)
![Page 47: Charts for Inflation Report 2/2004. Chapter 1. Chart 1.1 CPI-ATE 1). Total and by supplier sector 2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04 1) CPI-ATE:](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062519/5697bf731a28abf838c7ed82/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Chart 4.10 Contribution of the exchange rate to rise in prices for imported consumer goods. Based on historical exchange rates and the forward exchange rate in Inflation Report 1/04 and 2/04. Percentage points. Quarterly figures. 01 Q1 – 07 Q4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Inflation Report 1/04
Inflation Report 2/04
Source: Norges Bank
![Page 48: Charts for Inflation Report 2/2004. Chapter 1. Chart 1.1 CPI-ATE 1). Total and by supplier sector 2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04 1) CPI-ATE:](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062519/5697bf731a28abf838c7ed82/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Chart 4.11 Labour costs per produced unit1) and domestic price inflation2). Rise on same period previous year. Per cent. Jun 80 – May 04
-4
0
4
8
12
16
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
-4
0
4
8
12
16
1) Labour costs in relation to gross product. Mainland Norway excl. the energy sector. 4-quarter moving average 2) Adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. Monthly figuresSources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Labour costs per produced unit
Domestic inflation
![Page 49: Charts for Inflation Report 2/2004. Chapter 1. Chart 1.1 CPI-ATE 1). Total and by supplier sector 2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04 1) CPI-ATE:](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062519/5697bf731a28abf838c7ed82/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Chart 4.12 Expected consumer price inflation in 5 years. Per cent. Quarterly figures. 02 Q2 – 04 Q2
0
1
2
3
4
jun 02 des 02 jun 03 des 03 jun 040
1
2
3
4
Experts
Employer organisations
Source: TNS Gallup
Employee organisations
![Page 50: Charts for Inflation Report 2/2004. Chapter 1. Chart 1.1 CPI-ATE 1). Total and by supplier sector 2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04 1) CPI-ATE:](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062519/5697bf731a28abf838c7ed82/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Chart 4.13 Expected consumer price inflation in 2 years. Per cent. Quarterly figures. 02 Q2 – 04 Q2
0
1
2
3
4
jun 02 des 02 jun 03 des 03 jun 04
0
1
2
3
4
Experts
Employer organisations
Source: TNS Gallup
Employee organisations
![Page 51: Charts for Inflation Report 2/2004. Chapter 1. Chart 1.1 CPI-ATE 1). Total and by supplier sector 2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04 1) CPI-ATE:](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062519/5697bf731a28abf838c7ed82/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Chart 4.14 Annual wage growth1) and unemployment rate2). Per cent. Annual figures. 1993 – 20073)
0
2
4
6
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
0
2
4
6
1) Average for all groups. Including cost of additional vacation days2) LFS3) Projections for 2004 – 2007Sources: Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Unemployment rate
Annual wage growth
![Page 52: Charts for Inflation Report 2/2004. Chapter 1. Chart 1.1 CPI-ATE 1). Total and by supplier sector 2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04 1) CPI-ATE:](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062519/5697bf731a28abf838c7ed82/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Chart 4.15 Growth in real consumer wages and real producer wages1). Per cent. Annual figures. 1996 –20072)
0
1
2
3
4
5
1996 1999 2002 2005
0
1
2
3
4
5
1) Consumer price inflation for goods and services produced in Norway is used as a deflator for real producer wages. The CPI is the deflator for real consumer wages2) Projections for 2004 – 2007Source: Norges Bank
Real consumer wages
Real producer wages
![Page 53: Charts for Inflation Report 2/2004. Chapter 1. Chart 1.1 CPI-ATE 1). Total and by supplier sector 2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04 1) CPI-ATE:](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062519/5697bf731a28abf838c7ed82/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Chart 4.16 Projections and uncertainty for the CPI-ATE1). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – Dec 07
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007-1
0
1
2
3
4
530% 50% 70% 90%
1) The bands in the fan indicate different probabilities for developments in the CPI-ATE. Probabilities are based on the difference between projected and actual developments in underlying inflation in the period 1997 – 2004Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
![Page 54: Charts for Inflation Report 2/2004. Chapter 1. Chart 1.1 CPI-ATE 1). Total and by supplier sector 2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04 1) CPI-ATE:](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062519/5697bf731a28abf838c7ed82/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Chart 4.17 Changes in I-44. Daily figures. 1 Mar 04 – 24 Jun 04
92
94
96
98
100
Mar 04 Apr 04 May 04 Jun 0492
94
96
98
100
1)A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate
Source: Norges Bank
![Page 55: Charts for Inflation Report 2/2004. Chapter 1. Chart 1.1 CPI-ATE 1). Total and by supplier sector 2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04 1) CPI-ATE:](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062519/5697bf731a28abf838c7ed82/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Chapter 5
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Chart 5.1 CPI. Moving 10-year average1) and variation2). 1979 – 20043). Per cent
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 20040
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
CPI
Inflation target
1) The moving average is estimated 7 years back, current year and 2 years ahead 2) The band around the CPI is the variation in the period, measured as +/- one standard deviation 3) Figures for 2002 – 2004 are based on projectionsSources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
![Page 57: Charts for Inflation Report 2/2004. Chapter 1. Chart 1.1 CPI-ATE 1). Total and by supplier sector 2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04 1) CPI-ATE:](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062519/5697bf731a28abf838c7ed82/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
CPI1)
Inflation target
1) The output gap measures the difference between actual and trend mainland GDP 2) The band shows the variation in the output gap measured as + one standard deviation. The variation is estimated as average standard deviation in a 10-year period, 7 years back, current year and 2 years ahead
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Chart 5.2 Projections for the output gap, level1)and variation2). 1979 – 2004. Per cent
![Page 58: Charts for Inflation Report 2/2004. Chapter 1. Chart 1.1 CPI-ATE 1). Total and by supplier sector 2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04 1) CPI-ATE:](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062519/5697bf731a28abf838c7ed82/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
Chart 5.3 Projections for the CPI-ATE1) and the output gap2) in Inflation Report 1/04 (red) and 2/04 (green). Per cent
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1) CPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excl. energy products2) The output gap measures the difference between actual and trend mainland GDP
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
CPI-ATE
Output gap
IR 1/04IR 2/04
![Page 59: Charts for Inflation Report 2/2004. Chapter 1. Chart 1.1 CPI-ATE 1). Total and by supplier sector 2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04 1) CPI-ATE:](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062519/5697bf731a28abf838c7ed82/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
0
2
4
6
8
10
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
0
2
4
6
8
10
Chart 5.4 Assumption for the money market rate1). Forward interest rate2). Monthly figures. Per cent
1) The money market rate is normally about ¼ percentage point higher than the sight deposit rate2) 3-month money market rate up to May 2004. The 3-month forward rate is estimated using four money market rates and four government bond yields with different maturities as observed on 4 March and 24 JuneSource: Norges Bank
Forward rate 24 June (assumption IR 2/04)
3-month money market rate
Forward rate 4 March (assumption IR 1/04)
![Page 60: Charts for Inflation Report 2/2004. Chapter 1. Chart 1.1 CPI-ATE 1). Total and by supplier sector 2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04 1) CPI-ATE:](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062519/5697bf731a28abf838c7ed82/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
Chart 5.5 Assumption for the krone exchange rate (I-44)1). Forward exchange rates. Monthly figures
80
90
100
110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
80
90
100
110
1)A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate
Source: Norges Bank
Forward rate 24 June (assumption IR 2/04)
Import-weighted exchange rate, I-44
Forward rate 4 March (assumption IR 1/04)
![Page 61: Charts for Inflation Report 2/2004. Chapter 1. Chart 1.1 CPI-ATE 1). Total and by supplier sector 2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04 1) CPI-ATE:](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062519/5697bf731a28abf838c7ed82/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
nov 02 mar 03 jul 03 nov 03 mar 04 jul 04
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 5.6 Interval for the sight deposit rate at the end of each strategy period and actual developments. Daily figures. 1 Nov 02 – 1 July 04
Strategy period 1/03
Sight deposit rate
Strategy period 2/03
Strategy period 3/03
Strategy period 1/04
Strategy period 3/02
![Page 62: Charts for Inflation Report 2/2004. Chapter 1. Chart 1.1 CPI-ATE 1). Total and by supplier sector 2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04 1) CPI-ATE:](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062519/5697bf731a28abf838c7ed82/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
1)A rising curve denotes a stronger krone exchange rate
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 5.7 Import-weighted krone exchange rate1), sight deposit rate and 3-month interest rate differential against trading partners. Daily figures. 1 Jan 02 – 24 Jun 04
85
90
95
100
105
110
2002 2003 2004
-2
0
2
4
6
8
I-44 (left-hand scale)
Sight deposit rate (right-hand scale)
3-month interest rate differential (right-
hand scale)
![Page 63: Charts for Inflation Report 2/2004. Chapter 1. Chart 1.1 CPI-ATE 1). Total and by supplier sector 2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04 1) CPI-ATE:](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062519/5697bf731a28abf838c7ed82/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
1
2
3
4
5
6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1
2
3
4
5
6
1) Estimated as a weighted average of the forward rates for the euro area, the US, Sweden and the UKSource: Norges Bank
Norwegian forward interest rate
Forward rate trading partners1)
Chart 5.8 Forward interest rates. Monthly figures. Per cent. Jan 04 – Dec 07
24 June4 March
![Page 64: Charts for Inflation Report 2/2004. Chapter 1. Chart 1.1 CPI-ATE 1). Total and by supplier sector 2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04 1) CPI-ATE:](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062519/5697bf731a28abf838c7ed82/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
Chart 5.9 Projections for CPI-ATE1) and the output gap2). Per cent
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
CPI-ATE
Output gap
1) CPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products2) The output gap measures the difference between actual and trend mainland GDPSources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
![Page 65: Charts for Inflation Report 2/2004. Chapter 1. Chart 1.1 CPI-ATE 1). Total and by supplier sector 2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04 1) CPI-ATE:](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062519/5697bf731a28abf838c7ed82/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
0
2
4
6
8
10
2001 2002 2003 20040
2
4
6
8
10
3-month rate, Norway
Norwegian forward rate
Taylor rate
Chart 5.10 3-month money-market rate1), Taylor rate, forward interest rates for trading partners and Norway at 24 June. Monthly figures. Jan 01 – Dec 04
1) The money market rate is normally about ¼ percentage point higher than the sight deposit rate
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Forward rates for trading partners