charting technology development via foresight
DESCRIPTION
This presentation provides case study of how myForesight chart technology development through the use of ForesightTRANSCRIPT
Charting Malaysia Technology Development
through Foresight
Rushdi Abdul RahimmyForesight®
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• Not merely about– forecasting by experts & futurist
• It is about– sharing a common vision and
goals
– promoting trans disciplinary research
– key stakeholders engagementincluding decision & policy-makers
– drawing upon & creating knowledge networks
– extending the breadth and depth of the knowledge base for decision-making
– exploratory thinking & deliberations
– organising a long term thinking process
Foresight
Participation&
Networking
Policy-making&
Planning
Foresight isa process
Prospective&
Futures
Foresight…
Adopted from: Popper
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Year Country Exercise/Programme Method(s)
Since
1971 Japan 1st to 4th STA surveys Delphi
Japan 5th STA survey Delphi 1991
USA Critical Technologies Others
New Zealand Public Good Science Fund Others 1992
Germany BMFT, T 21 Others
South Korea Foresight Exercise Others 1993
Germany Delphi ’93 Delphi
UK 1st TF Programme Delphi + Others 1994
France Technology Delphi Delphi
1995 France 100 Key Technologies Others
Japan–Germany Mini-Delphi Delphi
Austria Delphi Austria Delphi
Japan 6th STA survey Delphi 1996
Australia Matching S&T to futures needs Others
Spain ANEP Delphi + Others
Hungary TF Programme (TEP) Delphi + Others
Netherlands Technology Radar Others 1997
Finland SITRA Foresight Others
South Africa Foresight Exercise Delphi + Others
Germany Delphi ’98 Delphi
Ireland Technology Foresight Ireland Others 1998
New Zealand Foresight Exercise Others
UK 2nd UK Foresight Programme Others
Sweden 1st Swedish Foresight Others
Spain OPTI Technology Foresight Delphi
South Korea Korean Technology Delphi Delphi
Thailand ICT Foresight Delphi + Others
1999
China TF of Priority Industries Delphi + Others
Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc.
Year Country Exercise/Programme Method(s)
Japan 7th STA Survey Delphi
Brazil Prospectar Delphi
Brazil TFP Brazil (UNIDO/MDIC) Delphi + Others
France 2nd 100 Key Technologies Others
2000
Portugal ET2000 Others
Venezuela TFP Venezuela 1st cycle Delphi + Others
Chile TFP Chile Delphi
Germany FUTUR Others 2001
Czech Republic TF Exercise Others
Turkey Vision 2023 Delphi + Others
Colombia TFP Colombia 1st cycle Delphi + Others
UK 3rd UK Foresight Programme Others
Cyprus, Estonia, Malta eForesee Others
Denmark National TF Denmark Others
2002
USA NIH Roadmap USA Others
China TF Towards 2020 Delphi + Others
Greece Technology Foresight Greece Others
Norway Research Council 2020 studies Others 2003
Sweden 2nd Swedish TF Others
Japan 8th Japanese Programme Delphi + Others
South Korea Korea 2030 Delphi + Others
Ukraine Ukranian TF Programme Delphi + Others
France FuturRIS Others
France AGORA Others
Venezuela TFP Venezuela 2nd cycle Others
2004
Russia Key Technologies Others
Colombia TFP Colombia 2nd cycle Delphi + Others
Brazil Brazil 3 Moments Delphi + Others
Romania Romanian S&T Foresight Delphi + Others
Finland Finnsight Others
Luxembourg FNR Foresight Others
2005
USA 21st Century Challenges GAO Others
Finland SITRA Foresight Others 2006
Poland Poland 2020 – TF Programme Delphi + Others
Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc.
Source: Rafael Popper (2010)
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World Economic Forum
Deutsche Telekom
British Airways
Royal Dutch Shell
KPMG
Sun Microsystems
Boeing
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5
Sectoral Foresight
• Identification of Market, Product, Technology & Skills
• Asses competencies, Benchmarking, Scenario building
National Technology Mapping Phase 1(NTMP I )National Technology Mapping Phase 2(NTMP II )
• Wood based• Food product• Machinery & Equipment
• Telecommunications• Pharmaceutical
Technology Foresight
• Assess competencies, Benchmarking, Trend & Technology Scanning, Scenario building, Delphi
• Identification of Technology Areas
• New Key Economic Activities• National S&T Planning
• Input to National Planning for next 10 years • Input to R&D activities
Input Output
Foresight in Malaysia
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6
6 national key result areas
12 national key economic areas
11 development areas
12 manufacturing sectors 8 non government business areas
9 National technology foresight areas6 Mega science areas
Niche priority areas
National Focus Areas
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Foresight Malaysia in a glance…
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Foresight Methodology
8
What are the objectives?
What Time Horizon are we looking at?
Building on existing resources and
materials
What is the cost?
Who are the stakeholders?
Stakeholders availability?
How much time do you have?
Matching skills & competencies…
Choosing The Right Method
Data Collection & Analysis
Scenarios
Identification & Recommendations
DIAGNOSIS
PROGNOSIS
PRESCRIPTION
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…defines as the application of systematic, participatory, future intelligence gathering and medium-to-long-term
scenario planning process to inform present day decisions and mobilising joint-action.
Scoping Futures
(Pre-Foresight)
Mobilizing Futures
(Recruitment)
Anticipating Futures
(Generation)
Recommending Futures (Action)
Transforming Futures
(Renewal)
Source: Popper
SMART Proces
s
Foresight Process
9
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National Technology Foresight
• Execution period: May – Dec 2010 • Horizon : 10 years • The recommendations proposed are
to support an effective implementation and management of the Science and Technology (S&T) agenda at the national level for the next ten years.
10
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…the how
• Scanning global drivers and trends, • Evaluating local competencies benchmarked against
some of the best in the world
• Engaging multi-disciplinary stakeholders in the country
• Vision building & Scenarios
• Recommending & prioritising the key technology areas
•
Scoping Futures(Pre-Foresight)
Mobilizing Futures(Recruitment)
Anticipating Futures
(Generation)
Recommending Futures (Action)
Transforming Futures (Renewal)
11
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• Scoping• Weak signals• Mega trends• Drivers of change• Plausible scenarios• Future niche• Future priority areas• Strategies
Scoping Futures
12
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Mobilizing Futures
Strategic Policy & Content Partners :
• Ministries• Agencies• Universities• Research Institution• Industry
Strategic Industry Partners :
• Local and international industry leaders
• SMEs
Engagement with Foresight as well as S&T experts :
• South Korea
• UK• OECD
13
• Canada• Malaysia
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Anticipating Futures 100+ products & services that is essential for the
future 300+ technologies to enable the products &
services
In the outward-looking world, economic sustainability continues. In the inward-looking world, barriers are erected and economic liberalisation and political integration slows.
At one extreme, very fast development in S&T and transformation plans were on track; at the other extreme, slower innovation growth with the poor innovation ecosystem hinders further progression.
Slower
Social-Economic with Political Transformation
Inward Outward
Em
erg
en
ce o
f n
ew
te
ch
nolo
gie
s &
in
novati
on
Entrapment
Don’t Worry, be Happy
Sealed in the Time Capsuled
Very fast
A Star is Born
14
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Recommending Futures
Each technology areas are ranked according to:-
Identifying the Technology Areas
Attractiveness (Socio Economic)
Feasibility (Technology Readiness)
• Economic & industrial impact;
• Competition;
• Social impact;
• Knowledge generation;
• National security & sustainability;
• Technology maturity, time horizon of impact;
• Application potential & diffusion;
• Resources & infrastructure.
15
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… the future of Technology
Green & environment friendly
Mobility
Modularity
Security & sustainability
16
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… the technology areas
9 identified
areas
5 emerging, cross-
cutting and converging areas
+
Advanced Manufacturi
ngFood
Security
Future Energy
Medical &
Healthcare
Waste Manageme
nt Domestic Safety & Security
Plantation Crops
Transport
Water Security
Biotechnology
Electronics
ICT
Material Sciences
Nanotech
17
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… the follow up & uptakes
Advanced Manufacturi
ngFood
Security
Future Energy
Medical &
Healthcare
Waste Manageme
nt Domestic Safety & Security
Plantation Crops
Transport
Water Security
Biotechnology
Electronics
ICT
Material Sciences
Nanotech
18
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National R&D Prioritisation
• Execution period: April – December 2011
• Horizon : 10 years • The listed prioritised R&D areas will
provide the basis for resource allocation of the country for the next 10 years and beyond.
19
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… the how
Benchmarking the best practises Evaluating local R&D competencies Engaging stakeholders & EWGsDedicated level of information
filteringSelecting and prioritising R&D
areas
Scoping Futures(Pre-Foresight)
Mobilizing Futures(Recruitment)
Anticipating Futures
(Generation)
Recommending Futures (Action)
Transforming Futures (Renewal)
20
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… the recommendation
Energy
Environment & Climate change
Food Security & Agriculture
Medical & Healthcare
Cyber Security
Plantation Crops & Commodities
Transportation & Urbanisation
8 Prioritised R&D Areas
21
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Future Rail 2030
• Execution period: May – December 2012
• Horizon : 20 years • Visioning that by 2030, Malaysia rail
industry will be a strong and sustainable business, capable of satisfying the demands of the national rail transportation; and a competitive global player that optimises the use of indigenous resources and technologies 22
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… the how
Benchmarking the best practises Evaluating local competencies Engaging multi-disciplinary
stakeholders Selecting & prioritising
development areas
Scoping Futures(Pre-Foresight)
Mobilizing Futures(Recruitment)
Anticipating Futures
(Generation)
Recommending Futures (Action)
Transforming Futures (Renewal)
23
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… the outcome
Conducive rail industry eco-system
High localization of rail products & services
Competitive regional & global player
GOAL 1
GOAL 2
GOAL 3
24
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GSIAC - Food Security
• Presented during the 1st Inter-sessional Meeting in New York in May 2012
• Increase of population and decreasing amount of arable land are among the concern and required special attention in securing food supply
25
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Green Technology Scenario 2030
• Presented to Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Water
• Green Technology Scenarios to be executed early 2013
26
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moving forward
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Social &Societal
Technology
Economic &Business
Values & Culture
Policy & Regulations
Environment
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myForesight®
National Foresight Institute
powered by
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myForesight®
Horizon Scannin
g
Foresight
Projects
Outreach
Linkages
Mega trends & issues scanning
Foresight & future oriented Projects & activities
Reports, publications, online portal, workshops & training etc.
Networking, linkages & affiliation
Main Activities
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Thank You
www.myforesight.my