chart 1.1: total national health expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

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Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1). Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released January 9, 2013. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)
Page 2: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

$200

$700

$1,200

$1,700

$2,200

$2,700

$3,200

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Bill

ions

Inf lation Adjusted (2)

Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011(1)

Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released January 9, 2013.(1) CMS completed a benchmark revision in 2009, introducing changes in methods, definitions and source data that are

applied to the entire time series (back to 1960). For more information on this revision, see http://www.cms.gov/nationalhealthexpenddata/downloads/benchmark2009.pdf.

(2) Expressed in 1980 dollars; adjusted using the overall Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers.

Page 3: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

Chart 1.2: Percent Change in Total National Health Expenditures, 1991 – 2011(1)

9.3%

8.4%

7.4%

5.6%

5.6%

5.3% 5.6% 5.8% 6.4% 7.

1% 8.4% 9.

7%

8.4%

7.1%

6.8%

6.5%

6.2%

4.7%

3.9%

3.9%

3.9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Per

cent

Cha

nge

Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released January 9, 2013.(1) CMS completed a benchmark revision in 2009, introducing changes in methods, definitions and source data that are

applied to the entire time series (back to 1960). For more information on this revision, see http://www.cms.gov/nationalhealthexpenddata/downloads/benchmark2009.pdf.

Page 4: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

Chart 1.3: Per Capita National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011(1)

Inflation Adjusted(2)

$200

$1,200

$2,200

$3,200

$4,200

$5,200

$6,200

$7,200

$8,200

$9,200

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Per

Cap

ita A

mou

nt

Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released January 9, 2013.(1) CMS completed a benchmark revision in 2009, introducing changes in methods, definitions and source data that are

applied to the entire time series (back to 1960). For more information on this revision, see http://www.cms.gov/nationalhealthexpenddata/downloads/benchmark2009.pdf.

(2) Expressed in 1980 dollars; adjusted using the overall Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers.

Page 5: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

Chart 1.4: National Health Expenditures as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product, 1991 – 2011(1)

Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released January 9, 2013.(1) CMS completed a benchmark revision in 2009, introducing changes in methods, definitions and source data that are

applied to the entire time series (back to 1960). For more information on this revision, see http://www.cms.gov/nationalhealthexpenddata/downloads/benchmark2009.pdf.

13.2

%

13.5

%

13.8

%

13.7

%

13.9

%

13.8

%

13.7

%

13.7

%

13.8

%

13.8

%

14.5

%

15.4

%

15.9

%

16.0

%

16.1

%

16.2

%

16.4

%

16.8

%

17.9

%

17.9

%

17.9

%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Per

cent

age

of G

DP

Page 6: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

Chart 1.5: National Expenditures for Health Services and Supplies(1) by Category, 1980 and 2011(2)

Hospital Care, 42.6% Hospital Care, 33.4%

Physician Services, 20.2%Physician Services, 21.3%

Other Professional,(4) 7.2%

Other Professional,(4) 7.1%

Home Health Care, 1.0%

Home Health Care, 2.9%

Prescription Drugs, 5.1%Prescription Drugs, 10.3%

Other Medical Durables and Non-durables, 5.9% Other Medical Durables and

Non-durables, 3.4%

Nursing Home Care, 6.5%Nursing Home Care, 5.9%

Other,(3) 11.5%Other,(3) 15.7%

1980 2011Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released January 9, 2013.(1) Excludes medical research and medical facilities construction.(2) CMS completed a benchmark revision in 2009, introducing changes in methods, definitions and source data that are applied to the entire time series

(back to 1960). For more information on this revision, see http://www.cms.gov/nationalhealthexpenddata/downloads/benchmark2009.pdf.(3) “Other” includes net cost of insurance and administration, government public health activities and other personal health care.(4) “Other professional” includes dental and other non-physician professional services.

$235.7B $2,547.2B

Page 7: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

4.5%4.1%

2.9%

4.3%

2.3%

4.3%

3.8%

4.4%4.6%All Health

Services & Supplies, 3.9%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

Home Health Care

Admin. & Net Cost of Private

Health Insurance

Prescription Drugs

Hospital Care Other Physician Services

Other Professional

Nursing Home Care

Other Medical Durables and Non-durables

Per

cent

Cha

nge

Chart 1.6: Percent Change in National Expenditures for Health Services and Supplies(1) by Category, 2010 – 2011(2)

Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released January 9, 2013.(1) Excludes medical research and medical facilities construction.(2) CMS completed a benchmark revision in 2009, introducing changes in methods, definitions and source data that are

applied to the entire time series (back to 1960). For more information on this revision, see http://www.cms.gov/nationalhealthexpenddata/downloads/benchmark2009.pdf.

(3) “Other” includes government public health activities and other personal health care.(4) “Other professional” includes dental and other non-physician professional services.

(3)(4)

Page 8: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

Chart 1.7: Percent Change in National Expenditures for Selected Health Services and Supplies, 2001 – 2011(1)

Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released January 9, 2013.(1) CMS completed a benchmark revision in 2009, introducing changes in methods, definitions and source data that are

applied to the entire time series (back to 1960). For more information on this revision, see http://www.cms.gov/nationalhealthexpenddata/downloads/benchmark2009.pdf.

Hospital Care

Prescription Drugs

Admin. & Net Cost of PrivateHealth Insurance

Home Health Care

Nursing Home Care

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Per

cent

Cha

nge

Page 9: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

Chart 1.8: National Health Expenditures,(1) 1980 – 2021(2)

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

$5,000

80 90 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Billi

ons

Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released June 2012.(1) Years 2011 – 2021 are projections.(2) CMS completed a benchmark revision in 2009, introducing changes in methods, definitions and source data that are

applied to the entire time series (back to 1960). For more information on this revision, see http://www.cms.gov/nationalhealthexpenddata/downloads/benchmark2009.pdf.

Page 10: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

Chart 1.9: Consumer Out-of-pocket Payments for National Health Expenditures, 1991 – 2011(1)

$0

$40

$80

$120

$160

$200

$240

$280

$320

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Billi

ons

Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released January 9, 2013.(1) CMS completed a benchmark revision in 2009, introducing changes in methods, definitions and source data that are

applied to the entire time series (back to 1960). For more information on this revision, see http://www.cms.gov/nationalhealthexpenddata/downloads/benchmark2009.pdf.

Page 11: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

Chart 1.10: Total Prescription Drug Spending, 1980 – 2011(1)

Inflation Adjusted(2)

$0

$40

$80

$120

$160

$200

$240

$280

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Billi

ons

Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released January 9, 2013.(1) CMS completed a benchmark revision in 2009, introducing changes in methods, definitions and source data that are

applied to the entire time series (back to 1960). For more information on this revision, see http://www.cms.gov/nationalhealthexpenddata/downloads/benchmark2009.pdf.

(2) Expressed in 1980 dollars; adjusted using the overall Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers.

Page 12: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

Chart 1.11: Growth in Total Prescription Drug Spending as a Percentage of Total Growth in National Health Expenditures, 1991 – 2011(1)

Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released January 9, 2013.(1) CMS completed a benchmark revision in 2009, introducing changes in methods, definitions and source data that are

applied to the entire time series (back to 1960). For more information on this revision, see http://www.cms.gov/nationalhealthexpenddata/downloads/benchmark2009.pdf.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Per

cent

age

of T

otal

Gro

wth

Page 13: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

Chart 1.12: Consumer Out-of-pocket Spending vs. Private Health Insurance Spending for Prescription Drugs, 1991 – 2011(1)

Out-of -pocket

Private Health Insurance

$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90

$100$110$120$130

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Billi

ons

Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released January 9, 2013.(1) CMS completed a benchmark revision in 2009, introducing changes in methods, definitions and source data that are

applied to the entire time series (back to 1960). For more information on this revision, see http://www.cms.gov/nationalhealthexpenddata/downloads/benchmark2009.pdf.

Page 14: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

Chart 1.13: Distribution of National Health Expenditures by Source of Payment, 1980, 2000, and 2011(1)

Medicare, 14.6% Medicare, 16.3% Medicare, 20.5%

Total Medicaid, 10.2%Total Medicaid, 14.8%

Total Medicaid, 15.5%Other Government, 17.5%

Other Government, 14.5%Other Government, 13.7%

Private Insurance, 27.0%Private Insurance, 33.3% Private Insurance, 33.2%

Other Private, 7.9%

Other Private, 6.4%Other Private, 5.7%

Out-of-pocket, 22.8%Out-of-pocket, 14.7% Out-of-pocket, 11.4%

1980 2000 2011Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released January 9, 2013.(1) CMS completed a benchmark revision in 2009, introducing changes in methods, definitions and source data that are

applied to the entire time series (back to 1960). For more information on this revision, see http://www.cms.gov/nationalhealthexpenddata/downloads/benchmark2009.pdf.

$255.8B $2,700.7B$1,377.2B

Page 15: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

Chart 1.14: Distribution of Health Insurance Coverage, Percentage of Population Covered by Payer, 1990, 2010, and 2011

15.7%

4.4%

16.5%

15.2%

63.9%

16.3%

4.2%

15.8%

14.6%

64.0%

13.9%

4.0%

9.7%

13.0%

73.2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Uninsured

Other Government

Medicaid

Medicare

Private

1990 2010 2011

Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2012 Annual and Social Economic Supplement. Data released February 2012. Table HIB-4. Health Insurance Coverage Status and Type of Coverage by State All People: 1999 to 2011.Link: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/hlthins/data/historical/files/hihistt4B.xls.

Page 16: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

Chart 1.15: Number and Percent Uninsured, 1991 – 2011

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Per

cent

of T

otal

Pop

ulat

ion

Num

ber

of U

nins

ured

(M

illion

s)

Number Percent

Source: US Census Bureau, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2011. Data released September2012. Table 7. People Without Health Insurance Coverage by Selected Characteristics: 2010 and 2011. Link: http://www.census.gov/prod/2012pubs/p60-243.pdf

Page 17: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

Chart 1.16: Average Percent Uninsured by State, 2009 – 2011

< 10.0%

10.0% - 14.9%

15.0% - 19.9%

³ 20.0%

RI 12.0%DE 11.5%DC 11.3%

Source: US Census Bureau, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2011. Data released September 2012. Link: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/hlthins/data/incpovhlth/2011/state.xls.

Page 18: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

Chart 1.17: Medicare Enrollees,(1) 1992 – 2012

Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Medicare Enrollment: National Trends, 1966 – 2005; Medicare Aged and Disabled Enrollees by Type of Coverage. CMS, Office of the Actuary. Email correspondence with CMS staff (for years 2001 – 2012).(1) Hospital insurance (Part A) enrollees and/or Supplementary Medical Insurance (Part B) enrollees; includes all persons (aged and

disabled).

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1205

10152025303540455055

35.6

36.3

36.9

37.5

38.1

38.4

38.8

39.1

39.7

40.1

40.5

41.2

41.9

42.6

43.4

44.4

45.5

46.6

47.7

48.9 50

.7

Milli

ons

Page 19: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

Chart 1.18: Medicaid Enrollees,(1) 1990, 1995, 2000 – 2012

AgedBlind/Disabled

Children

Adults

Other Title XIX

25.3

36.3

44.548.4 50.9 52.4

57.3 58.6 60.9 60.5 62.167.8 67.7 67.0 68.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Milli

ons

Source: Congressional Budget Office. Data released February 2012. Spending and Enrollment Detail for CBO’s March 2012 Baseline: Medicaid. Link: http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43059_Medicaid.pdf.(1) Does not include CHIP enrollees.

Page 20: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

Chart 1.19: National CHIP Enrollment,(1, 2) FY 1999 – FY 2010

1,959,330

3,333,879

4,622,204

5,353,812 5,984,772 6,102,784 6,151,215

6,745,1947,097,584

7,355,7467,695,264 7,705,723

FY 1999 FY 2000 FY 2001 FY 2002 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010

Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Data released February 2011. Number of Children Ever Enrolledby Program Type. Link: http://www.cms.hhs.gov/NationalCHIPPolicy/downloads/CHIPEverEnrolledYearGraph.pdf.(1) Number of children enrolled at any point in the year.(2) 2009 figure reflects revised data released by Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services on February 1, 2011.

Page 21: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

Chart 1.20: Percent Change in CHIP Enrollment by State, FY 2009 – FY 2010(1)

Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Data released February 2011. Number of Children Ever Enrolledby Program Type. Link: http://www.cms.gov/NationalCHIPPolicy/downloads/FY2010StateCHIPTotalTable_020111_FINAL.pdf.(1) 2009 figure reflects revised data released by Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services on February 1, 2011.

RI 19%DE 2%DC -13%

10% - 19%

1% - 9%

0% - -9%

20% - 29%

³ 30%

-10% - -19%

< -30%

Page 22: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1988 1996 1999 2002 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Conventional PPO HMO POS HDHP/SO

Chart 1.21: Percentage of Employees with Employer-based Coverage Who Can Choose Conventional, PPO, HMO, POS, and HDHP/SO Plans, 1988 – 2012

(2)

Source: The Kaiser Family Foundation and Health Research and Educational Trust. Data Released 2012. Employer Health Benefits: 1999, 2002, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012. Link: http://ehbs.kff.org/pdf/2012/8345.pdf. KPMG Survey of Employer-Sponsored Health Benefits: 1988, 1996. (1) Conventional plans refer to traditional indemnity plans.(2) Point-of-service plans not separately identified in 1988. (3) In 2006, the survey began asking about HDHP/SO, high deductible health plans with a savings option.

(3)(1)

Page 23: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

Chart 1.22: Distribution of Employer-sponsored Health Insurance Enrollment by Type of Plan, 1988 – 2012

Conventional

PPO

HMO

POS

HDHP/SO

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1988 1996 1999 2002 2003 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

(2)

(3)

(1)

Source: The Kaiser Family Foundation and Health Research and Educational Trust. Data Released 2012. Employer Health Benefits: 1999, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012. Link: http://ehbs.kff.org/pdf/2012/8345.pdf.KPMG Survey of Employer-Sponsored Health Benefits: 1988, 1996. (1) Conventional plans refer to traditional indemnity plans.(2) Point-of-service plans not separately identified in 1988. (3) In 2006, the survey began asking about HDHP/SO, high deductible health plans with a savings option.

Page 24: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

Chart 1.23: Percentage of Medicare Beneficiaries Enrolled in Medicare Managed Care,1992 – 2012

Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Email correspondence with CMS staff in May 2013.

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

21%

24%

27%

30%

4% 5% 6%

8%

10%

13%

16% 17

%

17%

15%

13%

12%

12% 13%

17% 20

% 22% 24

% 25%

25% 27

%

Per

cent

age

of B

enef

icia

ries

Page 25: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

Chart 1.24: Percent Growth in Medicare Spending per Beneficiary vs. Private Health Insurance Spending per Enrollee, 1991 – 2011(1,2)

Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released January 9, 2013.(1) CMS completed a benchmark revision in 2009, introducing changes in methods, definitions and source data that are

applied to the entire time series (back to 1960). For more information on this revision, see http://www.cms.hhs.gov/NationalHealthExpendData/downloads/tables.pdf.

(2) Data reflects spending on benefits commonly covered by Medicare and Private Health Insurance.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Private Health Insurance

Medicare

Page 26: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

Chart 1.25: Percentage of Medicaid Beneficiaries Enrolled in Medicaid Managed Care, 1992 – 2011

12% 14%

23%29%

40%

48%54% 56% 56% 57% 58% 59% 61%63% 65% 64%

71% 72% 71% 74%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Per

cent

age

of B

enef

icia

ries

Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Medicaid Managed Care Enrollment Report as of July 1, 2011.

Page 27: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

Chart 1.26: Percentage of Medicaid Beneficiaries Enrolled in Medicaid Managed Care by State, 2011

25% - 49%

50% - 74%

75% - 100%

1% - 24%

0%

RI 68.6%DE 80.5%DC 67.4%

Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Medicaid Managed Care Enrollment Report as of July 1, 2011.

Page 28: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

Chart 1.27: Annual Change in Health Insurance Premiums, 2000 – 2012

11.2%

9.7%

13.3% 13.3%

9.7% 9.4%

5.5% 5.5%4.7%

5.5%

3.0%

9.5%

4.5%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Ann

ual P

erce

nt C

hang

e

Source: The Kaiser Family Foundation and Health Research and Educational Trust. Data Released 2012. Link: http://ehbs.kff.org/pdf/2012/8345.pdf.

Page 29: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

Chart 1.28: Managed Care Plan Median Operating Margins,(1) 1997 – 2012

Source: Company documents of publicly traded managed care plans.(1) Represents earnings before interest and taxes over net revenues for the total service lines of the11 largest publicly

traded managed care plans.

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

4.9%4.4%

3.8% 3.9%

4.9%

5.8%

6.9%7.8%

6.6%7.1% 7.5%

5.6%5.0%

6.3% 6.5%

5.0%

Med

ian

Ope

ratin

g M

argi

ns

Page 30: Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2011 (1)

Chart 1.29: Operating Margins of the Top Insurers, 2010 – 2012

Source: FactSet Research Systems Inc. Data for all years updated as of March 2013. Data from Hoovers used in 2011 and earlier years’ Chartbooks.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Aetna WellPoint UnitedHealth Group

Cigna Humana

Ope

ratin

g M

argi

n

2010 2011 2012