charlotte mayoral race precinct breakdown
DESCRIPTION
Analysis of vote targeting totals needed to win Charlotte Mayoral raceTRANSCRIPT
Out of 167 precincts In 2013, the vote total breakdown was approximately:36 are safely Republican Safe R 27,53675 are safely Democrat Safe D 37,08239 are toss-ups Toss-Up 21,73817 are vulnerable Vulnerable 8,180
In Toss-Up Precincts For each candidate: (votes coming from each group)40018 Democrats Cannon31386 Republicans Safe R 6,29734029 Unaffiliated Safe D 30,187
Toss-Up 8,692In Vulnerable Precincts Vulnerable 4,927
26305 Democrats 50,10312162 Republicans17397 Unaffiliated Percent of total votes from each group:
CannonSafe R 0.0666Safe D 0.3193Toss-Up 0.0919Vulnerable 0.0521
0.5300
Assuming same turnout and vote total breakdown, just a few percentage point swings in each group will lead to a Republican victory:
Percent of total votes from each group: (2015 Scenario)Democrat
Safe R 0.0666Safe D 0.3100Toss-Up 0.0800Vulnerable 0.0344
0.4910
In each group, Stone must pick up:Safe R 882.424Safe D 0Toss-Up 945.328Vulnerable 1672.3256Total 3500.0776
In 2013, the vote total breakdown was approximately:votesvotesvotesvotes 94,536
For each candidate: (votes coming from each group)Peacock Total
21,239 27,5366,895 37,082
13,046 21,7383,253 8,180
44,433 94,536
Percent of total votes from each group:Peacock Total Difference
0.2247 0.2913 -0.15810.0729 0.3923 0.24640.1380 0.2299 -0.04610.0344 0.0865 0.01770.4700 1.0000
Assuming same turnout and vote total breakdown, just a few percentage point swings in each group will lead to a Republican victory:
Percent of total votes from each group: (2015 Scenario)Stone Total Difference
0.2340 0.3006 -0.16740.0729 0.3829 0.23710.1480 0.2280 -0.06800.0521 0.0865 -0.01770.5070 1.0000
In each group, Stone must pick up:votes 24.51178 votes per precinctvotes 0 votes per precinctvotes 24.23918 votes per precinctvotes 98.37209 votes per precinctvotes 20.95855 votes per precinct
4 Takeaways:
1. Cannon performed better in Safe D precincts than Peacock performed in Safe R precints by a margin of ~ 9.5 points. This translates into roughly 8,948 votes.
2. Peacock performed slightly better in Safe D precincts than Cannon performed in Safe R precincts, but not by much. (~ .06 percentage points, equivalent of 598 votes)
3. Peacock out-performed Cannon in Toss-Up precincts by 4.6 points, roughly 4,350 votes.
4. Cannon out-performed Peacock in Vulnerable precincts by 1.7 points, or 1,674 votes
Bottom Line: Cannon's 5,700 vote victory came from his strength in heavily Democratic precincts, Peacock's weakness in heavily Republican precincts, and Cannon's ability to win the vulnerable precincts by a slight margin.
Changes:
Safe R Precincts: Democrat performs the same; Stone outperformsPeacock by 1 percentage point
Safe D Precincts: Stone performs the same; Democrat underperformsCannon by .09 percentage points
Toss-Up Precincts: 1 percentage point swing to Stone
Vulnerable: Stone performs on par with Cannon; Democrat performs onpar with Peacock
4 Takeaways:
Safe R Precincts: Have to increase Republican turnout slightly, assuming Democrat performs the same.
Safe D Precincts: Increase Republican turnout just enough to combat anyincrease in Democratic turnout; breaking even is perfectly fine.
Toss-Up Precincts: Combination of increasing Republican turnout andtargeting unaffiliated voters who lean Republican
Vulnerable Precincts: Combination of increasing Republican turnout and targeting more unaffiliated voters who lean Republican
Changes:
Safe R Precincts: Democrat performs the same; Stone outperformsPeacock by 1 percentage point
Safe D Precincts: Stone performs the same; Democrat underperformsCannon by .09 percentage points
Toss-Up Precincts: 1 percentage point swing to Stone
Vulnerable: Stone performs on par with Cannon; Democrat performs onpar with Peacock
4 Takeaways:
Safe R Precincts: Have to increase Republican turnout slightly, assuming Democrat performs the same.
Safe D Precincts: Increase Republican turnout just enough to combat anyincrease in Democratic turnout; breaking even is perfectly fine.
Toss-Up Precincts: Combination of increasing Republican turnout andtargeting unaffiliated voters who lean Republican
Vulnerable Precincts: Combination of increasing Republican turnout and targeting more unaffiliated voters who lean Republican
4 Takeaways:
1. Cannon performed better in Safe D precincts than Peacock performed in Safe R precints by a margin of ~ 9.5 points. This translates into roughly 8,948 votes.
2. Peacock performed slightly better in Safe D precincts than Cannon performed in Safe R precincts, but not by much. (~ .06 percentage points, equivalent of 598 votes)
3. Peacock out-performed Cannon in Toss-Up precincts by 4.6 points, roughly 4,350 votes.
4. Cannon out-performed Peacock in Vulnerable precincts by 1.7 points, or 1,674 votes
Bottom Line: Cannon's 5,700 vote victory came from his strength in heavily Democratic precincts, Peacock's weakness in heavily Republican precincts, and Cannon's ability to win the vulnerable precincts by a slight margin.
Changes:
Safe R Precincts: Democrat performs the same; Stone outperformsPeacock by 1 percentage point
Safe D Precincts: Stone performs the same; Democrat underperformsCannon by .09 percentage points
Toss-Up Precincts: 1 percentage point swing to Stone
Vulnerable: Stone performs on par with Cannon; Democrat performs onpar with Peacock
4 Takeaways:
Safe R Precincts: Have to increase Republican turnout slightly, assuming Democrat performs the same.
Safe D Precincts: Increase Republican turnout just enough to combat anyincrease in Democratic turnout; breaking even is perfectly fine.
Toss-Up Precincts: Combination of increasing Republican turnout andtargeting unaffiliated voters who lean Republican
Vulnerable Precincts: Combination of increasing Republican turnout and targeting more unaffiliated voters who lean Republican
Changes:
Safe R Precincts: Democrat performs the same; Stone outperformsPeacock by 1 percentage point
Safe D Precincts: Stone performs the same; Democrat underperformsCannon by .09 percentage points
Toss-Up Precincts: 1 percentage point swing to Stone
Vulnerable: Stone performs on par with Cannon; Democrat performs onpar with Peacock
4 Takeaways:
Safe R Precincts: Have to increase Republican turnout slightly, assuming Democrat performs the same.
Safe D Precincts: Increase Republican turnout just enough to combat anyincrease in Democratic turnout; breaking even is perfectly fine.
Toss-Up Precincts: Combination of increasing Republican turnout andtargeting unaffiliated voters who lean Republican
Vulnerable Precincts: Combination of increasing Republican turnout and targeting more unaffiliated voters who lean Republican
Precinct Party Registered Cannon Peacock TotalTotal Votes Total Votes Total Votes
1 105 434 539DEM 406REP 580UNA 527
Total 1519
2 251 255 506DEM 1155REP 584UNA 975
Total 2734
3 319 51 370DEM 1950REP 152UNA 471
Total 2576
4 321 174 495DEM 1411REP 335UNA 536
Total 2288
5 165 98 263DEM 1019REP 181UNA 429
Total 1642
6 282 86 368DEM 1724REP 218UNA 561
Total 2519
7 183 160 343DEM 816REP 334UNA 558
Total 1727
8 118 708 826DEM 526REP 1051UNA 711
Total 2294
9 295 460 755DEM 1136REP 864UNA 1066
Total 3085
10 234 318 552DEM 804REP 751UNA 965
Total 2534
11 549 339 888DEM 2534REP 1608UNA 2391
Total 6593
12 279 19 298DEM 3242REP 160UNA 822
Total 4240
13 287 100 387DEM 1790REP 516UNA 978
Total 3309
14 301 36 337DEM 1864REP 141
UNA 666
Total 2686
15 399 295 694DEM 1076REP 485UNA 1043
Total 2628
16 854 13 867DEM 2853REP 49UNA 317
Total 3225
17 211 36 247DEM 1737REP 121UNA 489
Total 2356
18 91 662 753DEM 382REP 849UNA 429
Total 1661
19 122 510 632DEM 473REP 783UNA 488
Total 1747
20 195 423 618DEM 648REP 745UNA 779
Total 2179
21 175 198 373DEM 862
REP 502UNA 702
Total 2082
22 352 93 445DEM 2785REP 1092UNA 1654
Total 5578
23 227 27 254DEM 1383REP 112UNA 312
Total 1813
24 340 39 379DEM 2158REP 266UNA 676
Total 3112
25 519 5 524DEM 2462REP 57UNA 349
Total 2873
26 639 101 740DEM 2797REP 324UNA 603
Total 3732
27 304 23 327DEM 2172REP 131UNA 514
Total 2825
28 246 57 303
DEM 1681REP 221UNA 559
Total 2471
29 216 144 360DEM 1136REP 372UNA 660
Total 2185
30 239 103 342DEM 1196REP 343UNA 1027
Total 2581
31 416 8 424DEM 2389REP 76UNA 362
Total 2834
32 102 711 813DEM 424REP 986UNA 587
Total 2004
33 182 134 316DEM 1223REP 310UNA 575
Total 2124
34 202 171 373DEM 1186REP 433UNA 773
Total 2408
35 141 314 455DEM 600REP 585UNA 569
Total 1761
36 241 589 830DEM 699REP 944UNA 747
Total 2399
37 136 304 440DEM 660REP 736UNA 733
Total 2141
38 116 193 309DEM 873REP 463UNA 662
Total 2011
39 283 9 292DEM 2026REP 114UNA 375
Total 2525
40 298 52 350DEM 2175REP 187UNA 526
Total 2896
41 305 34 339DEM 1989REP 159UNA 498
Total 2654
42 641 26 667DEM 2453REP 83UNA 366
Total 2904
43 359 73 432DEM 2382REP 262UNA 716
Total 3370
44 203 212 415DEM 702REP 363UNA 569
Total 1643
45 166 134 300DEM 979REP 306UNA 539
Total 1832
46 225 151 376DEM 1449REP 384UNA 933
Total 2788
47 161 570 731DEM 723REP 1023UNA 763
Total 2516
48 114 674 788DEM 384REP 956UNA 529
Total 1871
49 136 405 541DEM 618REP 806UNA 720
Total 2160
50 135 247 382DEM 781REP 515UNA 683
Total 1987
51 227 389 616DEM 1057REP 874UNA 878
Total 2821
52 600 17 617DEM 2491REP 100UNA 416
Total 3013
53 430 69 499DEM 2747REP 226UNA 682
Total 3676
54 544 16 560DEM 2484REP 95UNA 443
Total 3031
55 356 3 359DEM 1608REP 34UNA 247
Total 1891
56 266 5 271DEM 1530REP 54UNA 226
Total 1816
57 159 429 588DEM 660REP 908UNA 650
Total 2226
58 128 191 319DEM 657REP 530UNA 597
Total 1797
59 126 159 285DEM 549REP 368UNA 462
Total 1382
60 521 19 540DEM 1781REP 78UNA 308
Total 2171
61 292 248 540DEM 1512REP 473UNA 541
Total 2534
62 252 94 346DEM 1522REP 258
UNA 533
Total 2318
63 197 89 286DEM 1409REP 276UNA 578
Total 2270
64 132 131 263DEM 538REP 254UNA 327
Total 1123
65 137 325 462DEM 493REP 505UNA 505
Total 1509
66 167 311 478DEM 516REP 479UNA 504
Total 1503
67 144 404 548DEM 431REP 601UNA 463
Total 1502
68 132 228 360DEM 887REP 420UNA 511
Total 1831
69 272 861 1133DEM 1005
REP 1732UNA 1291
Total 4041
70 164 610 774DEM 475REP 988UNA 717
Total 2188
71 94 562 656DEM 558REP 900UNA 634
Total 2102
72 109 437 546DEM 385REP 662UNA 514
Total 1566
73 161 332 493DEM 506REP 703UNA 551
Total 1766
74 116 682 798DEM 590REP 1069UNA 718
Total 2388
75 236 870 1106DEM 769REP 1481UNA 912
Total 3179
76 235 641 876
DEM 846REP 1133UNA 911
Total 2905
77 399 26 425DEM 2087REP 132UNA 440
Total 2663
78.1 181 78 259DEM 992REP 286UNA 546
Total 1832
79 227 128 355DEM 1011REP 369UNA 459
Total 1845
80 379 129 508DEM 1852REP 471UNA 718
Total 3057
81 462 124 586DEM 2964REP 479UNA 771
Total 4227
82 472 18 490DEM 2769REP 118UNA 565
Total 3464
83 320 214 534DEM 1817REP 689UNA 860
Total 3381
84 280 115 395DEM 1641REP 250UNA 568
Total 2462
85 234 327 561DEM 1027REP 739UNA 752
Total 2528
86 113 621 734DEM 364REP 1102UNA 608
Total 2079
87 221 269 490DEM 985REP 812UNA 1020
Total 2832
88 164 291 455DEM 897REP 914UNA 937
Total 2763
89 598 499 1097DEM 3301REP 1246UNA 1349
Total 5912
90 103 304 407DEM 473REP 612UNA 580
Total 1669
91 254 854 1108DEM 1009REP 1937UNA 1513
Total 4477
92 194 605 799DEM 749REP 1248UNA 977
Total 2985
93 140 435 575DEM 474REP 796UNA 544
Total 1820
94 252 135 387DEM 1179REP 358UNA 536
Total 2083
95 227 79 306DEM 1254REP 249UNA 451
Total 1961
96 151 324 475DEM 669REP 684UNA 631
Total 1993
97 202 54 256DEM 956REP 225UNA 421
Total 1612
98 297 50 347DEM 2067REP 239UNA 678
Total 2999
99 134 19 153DEM 1437REP 226UNA 544
Total 2217
100 209 499 708DEM 759REP 1011UNA 935
Total 2716
101 153 506 659DEM 749REP 1009UNA 738
Total 2501
102 361 191 552DEM 2265REP 915UNA 1260
Total 4461
103 285 709 994DEM 821REP 1381UNA 1069
Total 3281
104 600 52 652DEM 2598REP 187UNA 558
Total 3352
105 311 82 393DEM 2266REP 513UNA 1282
Total 4086
106 182 476 658DEM 503REP 672UNA 535
Total 1711
107.1 493 151 644DEM 2121REP 502UNA 908
Total 3540
108 266 50 316DEM 1845REP 183UNA 575
Total 2613
109 207 208 415DEM 853REP 547UNA 936
Total 2350
110 96 381 477DEM 370REP 575
UNA 375
Total 1325
111 183 566 749DEM 756REP 1121UNA 813
Total 2699
112 136 466 602DEM 496REP 1031UNA 708
Total 2244
113 207 645 852DEM 807REP 1571UNA 1097
Total 3488
114 179 577 756DEM 718REP 1231UNA 876
Total 2839
115 197 108 305DEM 900REP 348UNA 470
Total 1724
116 265 82 347DEM 1101REP 214UNA 413
Total 1734
117 234 142 376DEM 1324
REP 333UNA 535
Total 2201
118 164 454 618DEM 793REP 1097UNA 938
Total 2845
119 108 318 426DEM 545REP 630UNA 510
Total 1690
120 195 57 252DEM 1704REP 216UNA 734
Total 2668
121 237 795 1032DEM 804REP 1865UNA 1296
Total 3982
122 501 370 871DEM 2269REP 1326UNA 1690
Total 5309
123 404 127 531DEM 1519REP 290UNA 563
Total 2382
124 375 81 456
DEM 1825REP 219UNA 567
Total 2619
125 163 65 228DEM 797REP 206UNA 333
Total 1340
126 447 83 530DEM 2005REP 333UNA 684
Total 3041
128 366 267 633DEM 1362REP 771UNA 943
Total 3095
130 170 108 278DEM 998REP 286UNA 457
Total 1745
131 127 435 562DEM 380REP 834UNA 544
Total 1764
132 256 152 408DEM 1051REP 337UNA 558
Total 1957
135 724 122 846DEM 4292REP 685UNA 1603
Total 6612
137 229 856 1085DEM 1196REP 2505UNA 1755
Total 5473
138 258 73 331DEM 1766REP 457UNA 875
Total 3114
139.1 187 356 543DEM 893REP 1390UNA 1115
Total 3415
140 258 657 915DEM 1381REP 2198UNA 1787
Total 5392
141 50 10 60DEM 1958REP 848UNA 2642
Total 5515
144 213 522 735DEM 858REP 1435UNA 1126
Total 3438
145 849 703 1552DEM 3705REP 2650UNA 2697
Total 9080
146 517 121 638DEM 2612REP 482UNA 1092
Total 4205
147 440 55 495DEM 2311REP 450UNA 908
Total 3685
148 546 798 1344DEM 2503REP 3281UNA 3249
Total 9068
149 654 143 797DEM 3003REP 654UNA 1223
Total 4897
150 322 201 523DEM 1670REP 786UNA 887
Total 3357
151 433 135 568DEM 1986REP 696UNA 1125
Total 3824
201 333 122 455DEM 3035REP 1352UNA 1537
Total 5942
203 617 172 789DEM 3003REP 833UNA 1333
Total 5191
204.1 707 115 822DEM 2772REP 550UNA 1185
Total 4522
205 262 235 497DEM 1512REP 820UNA 813
Total 3153
210 1194 59 1253DEM 4586REP 415UNA 1075
Total 6095
211 805 197 1002DEM 4073REP 1420UNA 2225
Total 7752
212 997 238 1235DEM 5097REP 1402UNA 2755
Total 9316
213 565 94 659DEM 3194REP 372UNA 828
Total 4406
214 479 259 738DEM 1674REP 690UNA 918
Total 3300
222 407 197 604DEM 3870REP 894UNA 1244
Total 6016
223.1 500 519 1019DEM 2831REP 1573UNA 1887
Total 6315
224 177 41 218DEM 1198REP 710UNA 676
Total 2593
226 231 469 700DEM 982REP 1282UNA 1170
Total 3459
227 358 661 1019DEM 1493REP 2112
UNA 1906
Total 5528
228 353 180 533DEM 2062REP 835UNA 1238
Total 4154
229 319 219 538DEM 2444REP 2105UNA 2178
Total 6766
230 552 319 871DEM 3015REP 1347UNA 1922
Total 6315
232 334 731 1065DEM 1324REP 1877UNA 1646
Total 4858
237 409 97 506DEM 2303REP 625UNA 1151
Total 4096
238.1 348 273 621DEM 1245REP 733UNA 927
Total 2922
239 380 211 591DEM 1622
REP 679UNA 888
Total 3200
243 438 272 710DEM 3459REP 2144UNA 2767
Total 8411
Turnout Precinct Makeup Cannon % Peacock % Vote Diff.Percentage Percentage
0.1948051948 0.8051948052 -3290.2672811059907830.3818301514154050.346938775510204
0.3548387097
0.4960474308 0.5039525692 -40.4224579370885150.2136064374542790.356620336503292
0.1850768105
0.8621621622 0.1378378378 2680.756987577639752
0.05900621118012420.182841614906832
0.1436335404
0.6484848485 0.3515151515 1470.6166958041958040.1464160839160840.234265734265734
0.2163461538
0.6273764259 0.3726235741 670.6205846528623630.1102314250913520.261266747868453
0.1601705238
0.7663043478 0.2336956522 1960.684398570861453
0.08654227868201670.222707423580786
0.1460897181
0.5335276968 0.4664723032 230.4724956572090330.1933989577301680.323103647944412
0.1986103069
0.1428571429 0.8571428571 -5900.2292938099389710.4581517000871840.309938971229294
0.3600697472
0.3907284768 0.6092715232 -1650.3682333873581850.2800648298217180.345542949756888
0.244732577
0.4239130435 0.5760869565 -840.3172849250197320.2963693764798740.380820836621942
0.2178374112
0.6182432432 0.3817567568 2100.3843470347338090.2438950401941450.362657363870772
0.1346883058
0.9362416107 0.0637583893 2600.764622641509434
0.03773584905660380.193867924528302
0.0702830189
0.7416020672 0.2583979328 1870.5409489271683290.1559383499546690.295557570262919
0.1169537625
0.8931750742 0.1068249258 2650.693968726731199
0.0524944154877141
0.24795234549516
0.125465376
0.5749279539 0.4250720461 1040.409436834094368
0.184550989345510.396879756468798
0.2640791476
0.985005767 0.014994233 8410.884651162790698
0.01519379844961240.0982945736434109
0.2688372093
0.8542510121 0.1457489879 1750.7372665534804750.0513582342954160.207555178268251
0.1048387097
0.1208499336 0.8791500664 -5710.22998193859121
0.5111378687537630.258278145695364
0.4533413606
0.1930379747 0.8069620253 -3880.2707498568975390.4481969089868350.279336004579279
0.3617630223
0.3155339806 0.6844660194 -2280.2973841211564940.3418999541073890.357503441945847
0.2836163378
0.4691689008 0.5308310992 -230.41402497598463
0.2411143131604230.337175792507205
0.179154659
0.791011236 0.208988764 2590.4992828970957330.1957690928648260.296522050914306
0.0797776981
0.8937007874 0.1062992126 2000.762824048538334
0.06177606177606180.172090457804744
0.140099283
0.8970976253 0.1029023747 3010.693444730077121
0.08547557840616970.217223650385604
0.1217866324
0.9904580153 0.0095419847 5140.856943961016359
0.01983988861816920.121475809258615
0.182387748
0.8635135135 0.1364864865 5380.7494640943194
0.08681672025723470.161575562700965
0.1982851018
0.9296636086 0.0703363914 2810.768849557522124
0.04637168141592920.181946902654867
0.1157522124
0.8118811881 0.1881188119 189
0.6802913800080940.0894374747065965
0.22622420072845
0.1226224201
0.6 0.4 720.519908466819222
0.170251716247140.302059496567506
0.1647597254
0.6988304094 0.3011695906 1360.4633862843858970.1328942270437810.397907787679194
0.1325067803
0.9811320755 0.0188679245 4080.842978122794637
0.02681721947776990.127734650670431
0.149611856
0.1254612546 0.8745387454 -6090.2115768463073850.4920159680638720.292914171656687
0.4056886228
0.5759493671 0.4240506329 480.5758003766478340.1459510357815440.270715630885122
0.1487758945
0.5415549598 0.4584450402 310.4925249169435220.1798172757475080.321013289036545
0.1549003322
0.3098901099 0.6901098901 -1730.3407155025553660.3321976149914820.323111868256672
0.2583759228
0.2903614458 0.7096385542 -3480.29137140475198
0.3934972905377240.311379741558983
0.3459774906
0.3090909091 0.6909090909 -1680.3082671648762260.3437645959831850.342363381597384
0.2055114433
0.3754045307 0.6245954693 -770.4341123818995530.2302337145698660.329189457981104
0.1536548981
0.9691780822 0.0308219178 2740.802376237623762
0.04514851485148520.148514851485149
0.1156435644
0.8514285714 0.1485714286 2460.75103591160221
0.06457182320441990.181629834254144
0.1208563536
0.8997050147 0.1002949853 2710.749434815373022
0.05990957045968350.187641296156745
0.1277317257
0.9610194903 0.0389805097 6150.84469696969697
0.02858126721763090.12603305785124
0.2296831956
0.8310185185 0.1689814815 2860.706824925816024
0.07774480712166170.212462908011869
0.128189911
0.4891566265 0.5108433735 -90.42726719415703
0.2209373097991480.346317711503348
0.2525867316
0.5533333333 0.4466666667 320.534388646288210.16703056768559
0.294213973799127
0.1637554585
0.5984042553 0.4015957447 740.5197274031563850.1377331420373030.334648493543759
0.1348637016
0.220246238 0.779753762 -4090.2873608903020670.4065977742448330.303259141494436
0.2905405405
0.1446700508 0.8553299492 -5600.2052378407268840.5109567076429720.282736504543025
0.4211651523
0.2513863216 0.7486136784 -2690.2861111111111110.3731481481481480.333333333333333
0.250462963
0.3534031414 0.6465968586 -1120.39305485656769
0.2591847005535980.343734272773025
0.1922496225
0.3685064935 0.6314935065 -1620.37468982630273
0.3098192130450190.311237149946827
0.2183622829
0.9724473258 0.0275526742 5830.826750746764023
0.03318951211417190.138068370394955
0.2047792897
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Toss UpSafe DSafe RLean D but vulnerable