chapter eighteen: growth and sustainability in the twenty-first century
TRANSCRIPT
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Chapter Eighteen:
Growth and Sustainability in the Twenty-First
Century
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Climate Change
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Figure 18.1: Global Temperature Trends, 1900-2100
Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program, www.globalchange.gov .
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Economic Growth and the Environment
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0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 $ GNP per Capita
250 -
200 -
150 -
100 -
50 -
0 -
Kg
S02
per
Cap
ita
Source: Panayotou, T., "Empirical Tests and Policy Analysis of Environmental Degradation at Different Levels of Development,” 1993.
GNP per capita
Su
lfu
r d
iox
ide
em
issi
on
s p
er c
apit
a (k
g)
Su
lfur
dio
xide
em
issi
on
s p
er
capi
ta (
kg)
GNP per capita
Figure 18.2: Environmental Kuznets Curve for Sulfur Dioxide Emissions
Source: T. Panayotou, “Empirical Tests and Policy Analysis of Environmental Degradation at Different Levels of Development,” International Labour Office Working Paper, 1993.
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Brunei
United Arab Emirates
United States
India
China
Bahrain
Saudi Arabia
Kazakhstan
Gabon
Sweden
Switzerland
Norway
Figure 18.3: Carbon Dioxide Emissions vs GDP per Capita, 2009
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators Database 2013.
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Pe
rce
nt o
f to
tal t
ax
reve
nu
eFigure 18.4: Environmentally Based Taxes as a Share of Total Tax Revenue, Select Industrialized Countries
Source: OECD, OECD/EEA Instruments Database 2007
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Table 18.1: Global Population Classification by Income and Environmental Impacts, 2013
Source: World Bank, Little Green Data Book 2013; World Development Indicators 2013.
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Leis
ure
Income, Consumption
United States
Europe
Figure 18.5: A Consumption Possibilities Frontier
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Are Stabilization and Sustainability in Conflict?
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Steady State
Time
Resource-usingEconomic Activities
Figure 18.6: Growth Reaching a Steady-State
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2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
0
50
100
150
200
Ind
ex
(20
05=
10
0)
Year
GDP/Capita
GHGUnemploymentPovertyDebt to GDP
Figure 18.7: A No-Growth Scenario for the Canadian Economy
Source: Adapted from Peter Victor, Managing Without Growth: Slower by Deisgn, not Disaster. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, 2008, p. 182.
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Appendix: Demographic Challenges
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Table 18.2: Stages of Demographic Transition
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(a) 1900 (b) 2000
(c) 2040, projected
Figure 18.8: Population by Age and Sex, United States, 1900, 2000, and 2040 (projected)
Source: Wan Wan He, Manisha Sengupta, Victoria A. Velkoff, and Kimberly A. DeBarros, U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, P23–209, “65+ in the United States: 2005”, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 2005.
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Old
-Age
Dep
ende
ncy
Rat
io
Year
Italy
China
United States
Figure 18.9: Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 1950-2050
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Population Database. Figure based on mediumvariant projections.