chapter 4 financial planning and forecasting financial statements

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Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.

CHAPTER 4Financial Planning and Forecasting

Financial Statements

Plans: strategic, operating, and financial

Pro forma financial statementsSales forecastsPercent of sales method

Additional Funds Needed (AFN) formula

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Pro Forma Financial Statements

Three important uses:

Forecast the amount of external financing that will be required

Evaluate the impact that changes in the operating plan have on the value of the firm

Set appropriate targets for compensation plans

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Steps in Financial Forecasting

Forecast salesProject the assets needed to support

salesProject internally generated fundsProject outside funds neededDecide how to raise fundsSee effects of plan on ratios and

stock price

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2001 Balance Sheet(Millions of $)

Cash & sec. $20 Accts. pay. &

accruals $100

Accounts rec. 240 Notes payable 100Inventories 240 Total CL $200 Total CA $500 L-T debt 100

Common stk 500

Net fixed Retained

Assets 500 Earnings 200 Total assets $1000 Total claims $1000

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2001 Income Statement(Millions of $)

Sales $2,000.00Less: COGS (60%) 1,200.00 SGA costs 700.00 EBIT $100.00Interest 16.00 EBT $84.00Taxes (40%) 33.60Net income $50.40Dividends (30%) $15.12Add’n to RE 35.28

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Key Ratios

NWC Industry ConditionBEP 10.00% 20.00% PoorProfit Margin 2.52% 4.00% PoorROE 7.20% 15.60% PoorDSO 43.20 days 32.00 days PoorInv. turnover 8.33x 11.00x PoorF.A. turnover 4.00x 5.00x PoorT.A. turnover 2.00x 2.50x PoorDebt/assets 30.00% 36.00% GoodTIE 6.25x 9.40x PoorCurrent ratio 2.50x 3.00x PoorPayout ratio 30.00% 30.00% O.K.

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Key Ratios (Continued)

NWC Ind. Cond.

Net oper. prof. margin after taxes 3.00% 5.00% Poor

(NOPAT/Sales)

Oper. capital requirement 45.00% 35.00% Poor

(Net oper. capital/Sales)

Return on invested capital 6.67% 14.00% Poor

(NOPAT/Net oper. capital)

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AFN (Additional Funds Needed):Key Assumptions

Operating at full capacity in 2001.Each type of asset grows proportionally

with sales.Payables and accruals grow proportionally

with sales.2001 profit margin (2.52%) and payout

(30%) will be maintained.Sales are expected to increase by $500

million. (%S = 25%)

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Assets

Sales0

1,000

2,000

1,250

2,500

A*/S0 = $1,000/$2,000 = 0.5 = $1,250/$2,500.

Assets =(A*/S0)Sales= 0.5($500)= $250.

Assets = 0.5 sales

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Assets must increase by $250 million. What is the AFN, based on the AFN

equation?

AFN = (A*/S0)S - (L*/S0)S - M(S1)(1 - d)

= ($1,000/$2,000)($500)

- ($100/$2,000)($500)

- 0.0252($2,500)(1 - 0.3)

= $180.9 million.

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Projecting Pro Forma Statements with the Percent of Sales Method

Project sales based on forecasted growth rate in sales

Forecast some items as a percent of the forecasted sales

Costs

Cash

Accounts receivable (More...)

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Items as percent of sales (Continued...)

Inventories

Net fixed assets

Accounts payable and accruals

Choose other items

Debt (which determines interest)

Dividends (which determines retained earnings)

Common stock

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Percent of Sales: Inputs

2001 2002Actual Proj.

COGS/Sales 60% 60%SGA/Sales 35% 35%Cash/Sales 1% 1%Acct. rec./Sales 12% 12%Inv./Sales 12% 12%Net FA/Sales 25% 25%AP & accr./Sales 5% 5%

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Other Inputs

Percent growth in sales 25%

Growth factor in sales (g) 1.25

Interest rate on debt 8%

Tax rate 40%

Dividend payout rate 30%

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2002 1st Pass Income Statement

2002

2001 Factor 1st Pass

Sales $2,000 g=1.25 $2,500Less: COGS Pct=60% 1,500

SGA Pct=35% 875

EBIT $125

Interest 16 16

EBT $109

Taxes (40%) 44

Net. Income $65

Div. (30%) $19

Add. to RE $46

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2002 1st Pass Balance Sheet (Assets)

Forecasted assets are a percent of forecasted sales.

2002 Sales = $2,500

2002

Factor 1st Pass

Cash Pct= 1% $25Accts. rec. Pct=12% 300

Inventories Pct=12% 300

Total CA $625

Net FA Pct=25% $625

Total assets $1250

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2002 1st Pass Balance Sheet (Claims)

*From 1st pass income statement.

2002 Sales = $2,500

20022001 Factor 1st Pass

AP/accruals Pct=5% $125

Notes payable 100 100

Total CL $225

L-T debt 100 100

Common stk. 500 500

Ret. earnings 200 +46* 246Total claims $1,071

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What are the additional funds needed (AFN)?

Forecasted total assets = $1,250Forecasted total claims = $1,071Forecast AFN = $ 179

NWC must have the assets to make forecasted sales. The balance sheets must balance. So, we must raise $179 externally.

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Assumptions about How AFN Will Be Raised

No new common stock will be issued.

Any external funds needed will be raised as debt, 50% notes payable, and 50% L-T debt.

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How will the AFN be financed?

Additional notes payable = 0.5 ($179) = $89.50 $90.

Additional L-T debt = 0.5 ($179) = $89.50 $89.

But this financing will add 0.08($179) = $14.32 to interest expense, which willlower NI and retained earnings.

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1st Pass Feedback 2nd Pass

Sales $2,500 $2,500

Less: COGS $1,500 $1,500

SGA 875 875

EBIT $125 $125

Interest 16 +14 30 EBT $109 $95

Taxes (40%) 44 38

Net income $65 $57

Div (30%) $19 $17

Add. to RE $46 $40

2002 2nd Pass Income Statement

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2002 2nd Pass Balance Sheet (Assets)

No change in asset requirements.

1st Pass AFN 2nd Pass

Cash $25 $25

Accts. rec. 300 300

Inventories 300 300

Total CA $625 $625

Net FA 625 625

Total assets $1,250 $1,250

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2002 2nd Pass Balance Sheet (Claims)

1st Pass Feedback 2nd Pass

AP/accruals $125 $125

Notes payable 100 +90 190

Total CL $225 $315

L-T debt 100 +89 189

Common stk. 500 500

Ret. earnings 246 -6 240

Total claims $1,071 $1,244

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Forecasted assets = $1,250 (no change)

Forecasted claims = $1,244 (higher)2nd pass AFN = $ 6 (short)Cumulative AFN = $179 + $6 = $185.The $6 shortfall came from the $6

reduction in retained earnings. Additional passes could be made until assets exactly equal claims. $6(0.08) = $0.48 interest on 3rd pass.

Results After the Second Pass

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Equation method assumes a constant profit margin.

Pro forma method is more flexible. More important, it allows different items to grow at different rates.

Equation AFN = $181 vs.

Pro Forma AFN = $185.Why are they different?

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Ratios After 2nd Pass

2001 2002(E) Industry Cond

BEP 10.00% 10.00% 20.00% PoorProfit Margin 2.52% 2.27% 4.00% PoorROE 7.20% 7.68% 15.60% PoorDSO (days) 43.20 43.20 32.00 PoorInv. turnover 8.33x 8.33x 11.00x PoorFA turnover 4.00x 4.00x 5.00x PoorTA turnover 2.00x 2.00x 2.50x PoorD/A ratio 30.00% 40.34% 36.00% GoodTIE 6.25x 4.12x 9.40x PoorCurrent ratio 2.50x 1.99x 3.00x PoorPayout ratio 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% OK

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Ratios after 2nd Pass (Continued)

NWC Ind. Cond.Net oper. prof. margin after taxes 3.00% 5.00% Poor (NOPAT/Sales)Oper. capital requirement 45.00% 35.00% Poor (Net oper. capital/Sales)Return on invested capital 6.67% 14.00% Poor(NOPAT/Net oper. capital)

Note: These are the same as in 2001 (see slide 14-7), because there have been no improvements in operations (i.e., all percent of sales items have same percentages in 2001 and 2002). Also, there are no differences between 1st pass and 2nd pass because changes in financing do not affect measures of operating performance.

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What is the forecasted free cash flow for 2002?

2001 2002(E)

Net operating WC $400 $500 (CA - AP & accruals)

Total operating capital $900 $1,125 (Net op. WC + net FA)

NOPAT $60 $75 (EBITx(1-T))

Less Inv. in op. capital $225

Free cash flow -$150

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Suppose in 2001 fixed assets had been operated at only 75% of capacity.

With the existing fixed assets, sales could be $2,667. Since sales are forecasted at only $2,500, no new fixed assets are needed.

Capacity sales =Actual sales

% of capacity

= = $2,667.$2,000

0.75

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How would the excess capacity situation affect the 2002 AFN?

The projected increase in fixed assets was $125, the AFN would decrease by $125.

Since no new fixed assets will be needed, AFN will fall by $125, to

$179 - $125 = $54.

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Q. If sales went up to $3,000, not $2,500, what would the F.A. requirement be?

A. Target ratio = FA/Capacity sales= $500/$2,667 = 18.75%.

Have enough F.A. for sales up to$2,667, but need F.A. for another$333 of sales:

FA = 0.1875($333) = $62.4.

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How would excess capacity affect the forecasted ratios?

1. Sales wouldn’t change but assets would be lower, so turnovers would be better.

2. Less new debt, hence lower interest, so higher profits, EPS, ROE (when financing feedbacks considered).

3. Debt ratio, TIE would improve.

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2002 Forecasted Ratios: S02 = $2,500

% of 2001 Capacity

100% 75% IndustryBEP 10.00% 11.11% 20.00%Profit Margin 2.27% 2.51% 4.00%ROE 7.68% 8.44% 15.60%DSO 43.20 43.20 32.00Inv. Turnover 8.33x 8.33x 11.00xF.A. turnover 4.00x 5.00x 5.00xT.A. turnover 2.00x 2.22x 2.50xD/A ratio 40.34% 33.71% 36.00%TIE 4.12x 6.15x 9.40xCurrent ratio 1.99x 2.48x 3.00x

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How is NWC performing with regard to its receivables and inventories?

DSO is higher than the industry average, and inventory turnover is lower than the industry average.

Improvements here would lower current assets, reduce capital requirements, and further improve profitability and other ratios.

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Improvements in Working Capital Management

Before After

DSO (days) 43.20 32.00

Accts. rec./Sales 12.00% 8.89%

Inventory turnover 8.33x 11.00x

Inventory/Sales 12.00% 9.09%

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Impact of Improvements in Working Capital Management

Before After

Free cash flow (1999) -$150.0 $0.5

ROIC (NOPAT/Capital) 6.7% 7.7%

ROE 7.7% 8.59%

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Assets

Sales0

1,1001,000

2,000 2,500

Declining A/S Ratio

$1,000/$2,000 = 0.5; $1,000/$2,500 = 0.44. Declining ratio shows economies of scale. Going from S = $0 to S = $2,000 requires $1,000 of assets. Next $500 of sales requires only $100 of assets.

BaseStock

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Assets

Sales1,000 2,000500

A/S changes if assets are lumpy. Generally will have excess capacity, but eventually a small S leads to a large A.

500

1,000

1,500

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Summary: How different factors affect the AFN

forecast. Excess capacity:

Existence lowers AFN. Base stocks of assets:

Leads to less-than-proportional asset increases.

Economies of scale:Also leads to less-than-proportional asset

increases. Lumpy assets:

Leads to large periodic AFN requirements, recurring excess capacity.

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Regression Analysis for Asset Forecasting

Get historical data on a good company, then fit a regression line to see how much a given sales increase will require in way of asset increase.

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Example of Regression

Constant ratio overestimates inventory required to go from S1 = $2,000 to S2 = $2,500.

For a Well-Managed Co. Year Sales Inv.

1999 $1,280 $118 2000 1,600 138 2001 2,000 162 2002E 2,500E 192E

Inventory

Sales(000)1.28 1.6 2.0 2.5

Regressionline

Constantratio forecast

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Regression with 10B for Our Example

Same as finding beta coefficients. Clear all

1280 Input 1181600 Input 1382000 Input 162

0 y, m 40.0 = Inventory at sales = 0. SWAP 0.0611 = Slope coefficient.Inventory = 40.0 + 0.0611 Sales.

LEAVE CALCULATOR ALONE!

^

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Equation is now in the calculator. Let’s use it by inputting new sales of $2,500 and getting forecasted inventory:

2500 y, m 192.66.

The constant ratio forecast was inventory = $300, so the regression forecast is lower by $107. This would free up $107 for use elsewhere, which would improve profitability and raise P0.

^

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How would increases in these items affect the AFN?

Higher dividend payout ratio?

Increase AFN: Less retained earnings.

Higher profit margin?

Decrease AFN: Higher profits, more retained earnings.

(More…)

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Higher capital intensity ratio, A*/S0?

Increase AFN: Need more assets for given sales increase.

Pay suppliers in 60 days rather than 30 days?

Decrease AFN: Trade creditors supply more capital, i.e., L*/S0 increases.

chapter 4 financial planning and forecasting financial statements

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