chapter 14 tests of hypotheses based on count data
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Chapter 14 Tests of Hypotheses Based on Count Data. 14.2 Tests concerning proportions (large samples) 14.3 Differences between proportions 14.4 The analysis of an r x c table. 14.2 Tests concerning proportions (large samples). np>5; n(1-p)>5 n independent trials; X=# of successes - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Chapter 14 Tests of Hypotheses Based on Count Data
14.2 Tests concerning proportions (large samples)
14.3 Differences between proportions 14.4 The analysis of an r x c table
14.2 Tests concerning proportions (large samples)
np>5; n(1-p)>5 n independent trials; X=# of successes p=probability of a success Estimate:
n
Xp ˆ
Tests of Hypotheses
Null H0: p=p0
Possible Alternatives:
HA: p<p0
HA: p>p0
HA: pp0
Test Statistics
Under H0, p=p0, and
Statistic:
is approximately standard normal under H0 .
Reject H0 if z is too far from 0 in either direction.
n
pp
n
ppp
)1()1( 00ˆ
npp
ppppz
p )1(
ˆˆ
00
0
ˆ
0
Rejection Regions
Alternative Hypotheses
HA: p>p0 HA: p<p0 HA: pp0
Rejection Regions
z>z z<-z z>z/2 or
z<-z/2
Equivalent Form:
0 0
0 0 0 0
ˆ*
(1 ) (1 )
p p X npnz
np p np p
n
Example 14.1
H0: p=0.75 vs HA: p0.75
=0.05 n=300 x=206 Reject H0 if z<-1.96 or z>1.96
68667.0300
206ˆ
n
Xp
Observed z value
Conclusion: reject H0 since z<-1.96 P(z<-2.5 or z>2.5)=0.0124<reject H0.
0.68667 0.752.5
0.75(1 0.75)300
206 2252.5
300(0.75)(1 0.75)
z
or
z
Example 14.2
Toss a coin 100 times and you get 45 heads Estimate p=probability of getting a head
Is the coin balanced one? =0.05
Solution:
H0: p=0.50 vs HA: p0.50
45.0100
45ˆ p
Enough Evidence to Reject H0?
Critical value z0.025=1.96 Reject H0 if z>1.96 or z<-1.96
Conclusion: accept H0
15
5
)50.01)(50.0(100
)50.0(10045
z
Another example
The following table is for a certain screening test
91010Results Negative
80140Result Positive
Cancer Absent
Cancer Present
FNA status
Truth = surgical biopsy
Total
220
920
Total 150 990 1140
True positive 140sensitivity 0.93
True Positives False Negatives 150
Test to see if the sensitivity of the screening test is less than 97%.
Hypothesis
Test statistic
0 0
0
: .97
: .97
H p p
Ha p p
0 0
ˆ 0 0
estimated proportion-prestated proportion
standard error of the estimated proportion
ˆ ˆ 140 150 .972.6325
(1 ) .97 (1 .97)150
p
z
p p p p
SE p p
n
Check p-value when z=-2.6325, p-value = 0.004
Conclusion: we can reject the null hypothesis at level 0.05.
What is the conclusion?
One word of caution about sample size: If we decrease the sample size by a factor of 10,
911Results Negative
814Result Positive
Cancer Absent
Cancer Present
FNA status
Truth = surgical biopsy
Total
22
92
Total 15 99 114
True positive 14sensitivity 0.93
True Positives False Negatives 15
And if we try to use the z-test,
0 0
ˆ 0 0
estimated proportion-prestated proportion
standard error of the estimated proportion
ˆ ˆ 14 15 .970.8324
(1 ) .97 (1 .97)15
p
z
p p p p
SE p p
n
P-value is greater than 0.05 for sure (p=0.2026). So we cannot reach the same conclusion.
And this is wrong!
So for test concerning proportions
We want
np>5; n(1-p)>5
14.3 Differences Between Proportions
Two drugs (two treatments) p1 =percentage of patients recovered after
taking drug 1 p2 =percentage of patients recovered after
taking drug 2 Compare effectiveness of two drugs
Tests of Hypotheses
Null H0: p1=p2 (p1-p2 =0)
Possible Alternatives:
HA: p1<p2
HA: p1>p2
HA: p1p2
Compare Two Proportions
Drug 1: n1 patients, x1 recovered
Drug 2: n2 patients, x2 recovered
Estimates: Statistic for test:
If we did this study over and over and drew a histogram of the resulting values of , that histogram or distribution would have standard deviation
1 2ˆ ˆp p
2
22
1
11 ˆ;ˆ
n
xp
n
xp
21 ˆˆ
21 ˆˆ
pp
ppz
1 2ˆ ˆp p
Estimating the Standard Error
Under H0, p1=p2=p. So
Estimate the common p by
)11
)(1(21
)1()1(2ˆ
2ˆ
2ˆˆ 2
22
1
11
2121
nnpp
npp
npp
pppp
21
21
21
2211 ˆˆˆ
nn
xx
nn
pnpnp
So put them together
1 2
1 2
ˆ ˆ
1 1ˆ ˆ(1 )( )
p pz
p pn n
Example 12.3
Two sided test: H0: p1=p2 vs HA: p1p2
n1=80, x1=56
n2=80, x2=38
7.0ˆ1 p 475.0ˆ 2 p 5875.08080
3856ˆ
p
Two Tailed Test
Observed z-value:
Critical value for two-tailed test: 1.96 Conclusion: Reject H0 since |z|>1.96
88.2078.0
225.0
)801
801
(4125.05875.0
475.07.0
z
Rejection Regions
Alternative Hypotheses
HA: p1>p2
HA: p1<p2
HA: p1p2
Rejection Regions
z>z z<-z z>z/2 or
z<-z/2
P-value of the previous example
P-value=P(z<-2.88)+P(z>2.88)=2*0.004
So not only we can reject H0 at 0.05 level, we can also reject at 0.01 level.
14.4 The analysis of an r x c table
Recall Example 12.3 Two sided test; H0: p1=p2 vs HA: p1p2
n1=80, x1=56 n2=80, x2=38
We can put this into a 2x2 table and the question now becomes is there a relationship between treatment and outcome? We will come back to this example after we introduce 2x2 tables and chi-square test.
Recover Not Rec
Treat 1 56 24 | 80
Treat 2 38 42 | 80
94 66 | 160
2x2 Contingency Table
The table shows the data from a study of 91 patients who had a myocardial infarction (Snow 1965). One variable is treatment (propranolol versus a placebo), and the other is outcome (survival for at least 28 days versus death within 28 days).
Treatment
1729
738
OUTCOME
Survival for at least 28 days Death
Propranolol
Placebo
Total
45
46
91Total 67 24
Hypotheses for Two-way TablesHypotheses for Two-way Tables
The hypotheses for two-way tables are very “broad stroke”.
• The null hypothesis H0 is simply that there is no association between the row and column variable.
• The alternative hypothesis Ha is that there is an association between the two variables. It doesn’t specify a particular direction and can’t really be described as one-sided or two-sided.
Hypothesis statement in Our Example
Null hypothesis: the method of treating the myocardial infarction patients did not influence the proportion of patients who survived for at least 28 days.
The alternative hypothesis is that the outcome (survival or death) depended on the treatment, meaning that the outcomes was the dependent variable and the treatment was the independent variable.
Calculation of Expected Cell Count
To test the null hypothesis, we compare the observed cell counts (or frequencies) to the expected cell counts (also called the expected frequencies)
The process of comparing the observed counts with the expected counts is called a goodness-of-fit test. (If the chi-square value is small, the fit is good and the null hypothesis is not rejected.)
TotalStudy
TotalColumnTotalRowE
111,1
Observed cell counts
Treatment1729
738
OUTCOMESurvival for at least 28 days
Death
Propranolol
Placebo
Total
45
4691Total 67 24
Treatment
12.1333.87
11.8733.13
OUTCOMESurvival for at least 28 days
Death
Propranolol
Placebo
Total
45
4691Total 67 24
Expected cell counts
The Chi-Square ( The Chi-Square ( 22) Test Statistic) Test Statistic
The chi-square statistic is a measure of how much the observed cell counts in a two-way table differ from the expected cell counts. It can be used for tables larger than 2 x 2, if the average of the expected cell counts is > 5 and the smallest expected cell count is > 1; and for 2 x 2 tables when all 4 expected cell counts are > 5. The formula is:
2 = (observed count – expected count)2/expected count
Degrees of freedom (df) = (r –1) x (c – 1)
Where “observed” is an observed sample count and “expected” is the computed expected cell count for the same cell, r is the number of rows, c is the number of columns, and the sum () is over all the r x c cells in the table (these do not include the total cells).
The Chi-Square ( The Chi-Square ( 22) Test Statistic) Test Statistic
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Example: Patient Compliance w/ RxExample: Patient Compliance w/ Rx
TreatmentCompliance 10 mg Daily 5 mg bid Total
95%+ 46 40 86
< 95% 4 10 14
Total 50 50 100
In a study of 100 patients with hypertension, 50 were randomly allocated to a group prescribed 10 mg lisinopril to be taken once daily, while the other 50 patients were prescribed 5 mg lisinopril to be taken twice daily. At the end of the 60 day study period the patients returned their remaining medication to the research pharmacy. The pharmacy then counted the remaining pills and classified each patient as < 95% or 95%+ compliant with their prescription. The two-way table for Compliance and Treatment was:
Example: Patient Compliance w/ RxExample: Patient Compliance w/ Rx
TreatmentCompliance 10 mg Daily 5 mg bid Total95%+ 460 400 860< 95% 40 100 140Total 500 500 1000
TreatmentCompliance 10 mg Daily 5 mg bid Total95%+ 430 430 860< 95% 70 70 140Total 500 500 1000
The expected cell counts were:
2 = 29.9, df = (2-1)*(2-1) = 1, P-value <0.001
If we use the two sample test for proportion
1 2
1 2
1 2
2
2 2(1)
460 400 860ˆ ˆ ˆ, ,
500 500 1000ˆ ˆ
5.468121 1
ˆ ˆ(1 )( )
5.46812 29.9
p p p
p pz
p pn n
z
The The 22 and and zz Test Statistics Test StatisticsThe comparison of the proportions of “successes” in two populations leads to a 2 x 2 table, so the population proportions can be compared either using the 2 test or the two-sample z test .
For a 2-sided test, it really doesn’t matter, because • they always give exactly the same result, because the 2 is equal
to the square of the z statistic and • the chi-square with one degree of freedom 2
(1) critical values are equal to the squares of the corresponding z critical values.
• A P-value for the 2 x 2 2 can be found by calculating the square root of the chi-square, looking that up in Table for P(Z > z) and multiplying by 2, because the chi-square always tests the two-sided alternative.
The The 22 and and zz Test Statistics Test Statistics
• For a 2 x 2 table with a one-sided alternative:
• The 1-sided two-sample z statistic could to be used.
• The chi-square p-value could be modified as•1-sided p-value = 0.5*(2-sided p-value) if the observed difference is in the direction of the alternative
•HA: p1< p2 and
•1-sided p-value = 1 - 0.5*(2-sided p-value) if the observed difference is away from the alternative, e.g.
• The chi-square is the one most often seen in the literature.
21 ˆˆ pp
21 ˆˆ pp
Summary: Computations for Two-way TablesSummary: Computations for Two-way Tables
1. Create the table, including observed cell counts, column and row totals.
2. Find the expected cell counts.
• Determine if a 2 test is appropriate.
• Calculate the 2 statistic and number of degrees of freedom.
3. Find the approximate P-value
• Use Table III chi-square table to find the approximate P-value.
• Or use z-table and find the two-tailed p-value if it is 2 x 2.4. Draw conclusions about the association between the row and
column variables.
Yates Correction for Continuity
The chi-square test is based on the normal approximation of the binomial distribution (discrete), many statisticians believe a correction for continuity is needed.
It makes little difference if the numbers in the table are large, but in tables with small numbers it is worth doing.
It reduces the size of the chi-square value and so reduces the chance of finding a statistically significant difference, so that correction for continuity makes the test more conservative.
E
EOYates
22 )5.0|(|
What do we do if the expected values in any of the cells in a 2x2
table is below 5?For example, a sample of teenagers might be divided into male and female on the one hand, and those that are and are not currently dieting on the other. We hypothesize, perhaps, that the proportion of dieting individuals is higher among the women than among the men, and we want to test whether any difference of proportions that we observe is significant. The data might look like this:
diet no diet total
men 1 11 12
women 9 3 12
totals 10 14 24
The question we ask about these data is: knowing that 10 of these 24 teenagers are dieters, what is the probability that these 10 dieters would be so unevenly distributed between the girls and the boys? If we were to choose 10 of the teenagers at random, what is the probability that 9 of them would be among the 12 girls, and only 1 from among the 12 boys?
--Hypergeometric distribution!
--Fisher’s exact test uses the hypergeometric distribution to calculate the “exact” probability of obtaining such set of the values.
Fisher’s exact test
Before we proceed with the Fisher test, we first introduce some notation. We represent the cells by the letters a, b, c and d, call the totals across rows and columns marginal totals, and represent the grand total by n. So the table now looks like this:
men women total
dieting a b a + b
not dieting
c d c + d
totals a + c b + d n
Fisher showed that the probability of obtaining any such set of values was given by the hypergeometric distribution:
diet no diet total
men a b a + b
women c d c + d
totals a + c b + d n
In our example
10!14!12!12!0.00134
24!1!9!11!3!p
HA: pM= pW HA: pM< pW
Recall that p-value is the probability of observing data as extreme or more extreme if the null hypothesis is true. So the p-value is this problem is 0.00137.
10!14!12!12!0.00003
24!0!10!12!2!p
241410totals
1239women
12111men
totalno dietdiet
241212totals
12210women
12120men
totalno dietdiet
As extreme
as observed
More extreme than
observed
Two Sided Test
HA: pM= pW HA: pM≠ pW
Extreme observations include either mostly women dieters or mostly men.
Since the numbers of men and women are equal, probabilities remain the same if we interchange men and women. So the p-value is this problem is 2*0.00137.
241410totals
12women
121, 11men
totalno dietdiet
241212totals
12women
120, 12men
totalno dietdiet
As extreme
as observed
More extreme than
observed
The Fisher Exact Probability Test Used when one or more of the expected counts in a contingency
table is small (<2). Fisher's Exact Test is based on exact probabilities from a
specific distribution (the hypergeometric distribution). There's really no lower bound on the amount of data that is
needed for Fisher's Exact Test. You can use Fisher's Exact Test when one of the cells in your table has a zero in it. Fisher's Exact Test is also very useful for highly imbalanced tables. If one or two of the cells in a two by two table have numbers in the thousands and one or two of the other cells has numbers less than 5, you can still use Fisher's Exact Test.
Fisher's Exact Test has no formal test statistic and no critical value, and it only gives you a p-value.
Does pregnancy affect outcome of methadone maintenance treatment? Does pregnancy affect outcome of methadone
maintenance treatment?
Journal of Substance Abuse Treatment, June 2004, 295-303
51 pregnant
51 non-pregnant
Pick 3 randomly for 3 Axis 1 Disorder Cases
2426.02
1213.0100
49
101
50
102
51)3(
1213.0100
49
101
50
102
51)0(
#
valuepsided
XP
XP
pregnantX
0 1 2 3
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1213
0.3787 0.3787
0.1213
Observed X=0
Adinoma Tumors in Mice Genetic basis of variation in adenoma multiplicity in ApcMin/+
Mom1S mice. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, February 22, 2005, 2868-2873
“The results (Table 5) indicated that the frequency of allele loss was significantly higher in line V (96%) than in line I (77%)
P = 0.003, Fisher's exact test).”
Table 5. Frequency of allele loss of WT Apc in lines
Type Number Percent
Line MinI/+I 46/60 77%
Line MinV/+V 52/54 96%
Loss No Loss
Line I 46 14 | 60
Line V 52 X=2 | 54
98 16 | 114X P(X)0 0.000012 1 0.000223 2 0.001925 3 0.009938 4 0.034317
12 0.012970 13 0.002941 14 0.000445 15 0.000040 16 0.000002
P 0.002647
More extreme values are values with smaller probability.
Observed count
0 1 2 3 4 etc etc 12 13 14 15 16
0.0
0.01
0.02
0.03