changing the world: the flash memory revolution

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Changing the World: The Flash Memory Revolution Eli Harari Chairman & CEO SanDisk Corporation

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Page 1: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

Changing the World:The Flash Memory Revolution

Eli HarariChairman & CEO

SanDisk Corporation

Page 2: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

Forward Looking Statement

During our meeting today we will be making forward-looking statements.

Any statement that refers to expectations, projections or other characterizations of future events or circumstances is a forward-looking statement, including those relating to revenue, pricing, market share, market growth, product sales, industry trends, expenses, gross margin, production capacity and technology transitions and future products.

Actual results may differ materially from those expressed in these forward-looking statements including due to the factors detailed under the caption “Risk Factors” and elsewhere in the documents we file from time-to-time with the SEC.

We undertake no obligation to update these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date hereof.

Page 3: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

1988 2008

In the past twenty years we have changed the world

Page 4: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

From 36 photos on a roll to 5,000 images in your hand

1988 2008

Page 5: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

From 1 file on a floppy to 1,000 documents on a Flash drive

1988 2008

Page 6: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

From 20 songs on a tape to 5,000 tunes in your pocket

1988 2008

Page 7: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

The music and video revolution continues

1988 2008 201X

Page 8: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

Our industry is facing some challenging times

Falling US Consumer Confidence

Excess Supply, Commodity Pricing

Supply

Demand

Excess Capacity

3rd year of ~ 60% annual ASP decline

Page 9: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

Self-correction will lead to growth with profitability in the next decade

2008

Supply

Demand New Markets Taking Off

Slowing Capacity Adds

Excess Capacity

Profitability

Page 10: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

Flash will profoundly transform three huge growth markets

Consumer Electronics Handsets Computers

Page 11: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

On board GPS systems will be a multi-billion dollar industry

Page 12: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

Video is the new photo

Page 13: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

Flash technology is at the heart of online file sharing, social networking

Capture Store Share

Page 14: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

Flash is enabling the digital book revolution

Amazon Kindle: the future of reading

Page 15: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

New paradigms require new ways of thinking

The world’s first horseless carriage

Page 16: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

The changing face of cell phones

Voice

Data

Video

Page 17: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

Smartphones will account for 28% of wireless shipments in the U.S. this year

Smartphones28%

Source: CEA

Page 18: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

80% of cell phones will have memory slots by 2012

Source: Gartner

Page 19: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

Future of mobile devices: all your content in your pocket

4G Broadband/Wimax: always on

PC OS: Symbian, Android, Mac, Linux, MS Mobile PC

3rd-party applications: iPhone 3G

Local secure flash: (8GB to 128GB)

Flash caching

MNO competition: deliver content & services

Convergence: Netbook PC, Smartphone, Multimedia handsets

Page 20: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

Notebooks continue to lose weight and gain power

20101988 2008

Page 21: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

SSD will complement HDD in enterprise performance

HDD SSD

ReadPerformance

x 100x +

Write Performance

x 10x +

Source: Gartner

Page 22: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

One in five computing devices will have solid state drives by 2011/2012

Source: Gartner

Page 23: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

10% share of the HDD market =huge rise in Flash demand

HDD Total Storage ~ 500,000,000 TB/year

~2012/2013

10% 300mm wafers~12.5M wafers/year

= 10 New Flash Mega-fabs

Page 24: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

Netbook PCs are taking off

2007 2009

500,000

18 million

Source: Taiwan MIC

Page 25: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

Flash has the power to democratize technology

Page 26: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

A billion new middle class consumers in the next ten years

Page 27: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

Affordable computing for every child in every country

Page 28: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

Building communities through wireless networks

Page 29: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

Making light work of global business travel

Page 30: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

D1

D2 D3

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0.256Gb 

1Gb 2Gb 

4Gb8Gb 

16Gb 32Gb 

64Gb 

200mm 300mm

Faster than a speeding Moore: 9 generations in 10 years

Flash’s growth engine: beating Moore’s Law

Page 31: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

D1

D2 D3

50 

100 

150 

200 

250 

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0.256Gb

1Gb

2Gb

4Gb8Gb

16Gb32Gb

64Gb

Techno

logy (nm)

200mm 300mm

210nm 160 130 90 70 56 43 32nm in 9 yearsD1 (SLC) D2 (MLC) D3 (x3)

Unprecedented pace of Flash technology transitions

Page 32: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

Relativ

e Co

st/M

B

D2

D3

1%

10%

100%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

200mm 300mm

Dramatic Flash price reductions: key to new markets

Page 33: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

OUTPUT

EFFORTPhase-Change, Nanotechnology.

DRAM

NAND

3D Memory

Past NAND scaling: up S-Curve

Future NAND scaling; slowing down

ASP/MB accordingly slows

NAND/MLC will likely be eclipsed in next decade

3D R/W promising candidate to continue Moore’s law scaling

S-Curve: Memory Scaling Limits

Page 34: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

N

P

Resistance Change Materials

PCMMetal OxidesSolid ElectrolytesMagnetic materialsand others…

4 f 2

3D Diode Memory Arrays

Page 35: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

Periphery Circuits4 Layers of Memory

3D Diode Memory Arrays

Page 36: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

Conclusion: flash/3D is the place to be in the coming decade

Transforming existing markets Creating new

mega-marketsReturning to

profitable growththru innovation, IP

low cost

Page 37: Changing the World: the Flash Memory Revolution

Changing the World:The Flash Memory Revolution

Eli HarariChairman & CEO

SanDisk Corporation