changing roles: between moore and maxwell
TRANSCRIPT
CHANGING ROLES:
BETWEEN
MOORE AND MAXWELL
Jorge Vasconcelos
NEWES, New Energy Solutions
IEA workshop New Roles and Responsibilities in Smart Networks
Paris February 29, 2016
(GREEN)
FUTURES TRANSITIONS PRESENT
TODAY
T 1 FUT A
T 2 FUT B
T 3 FUT C
NEWES, New Energy Solutions February 29, 2016
IT IS CRUCIAL TO REALIZE THAT :
A) DIFFERENT PATHS REQUIRE
DIFFERENT ROLES BY
NETWORK OPERATORS,
TRADITIONAL UNDERTAKINGS,
DIFFERENT MARKET AGENTS AND
REGULATORS.
B) DIFFERENT NATIONAL PATHS
MAY COEXIST –
FULL HARMONIZATION IS NOT A
PRE-CONDITION FOR A WELL-
FUNCTIONING IEM.
SEVERAL ALTERNATIVE PATHS MAY LEAD TO 2050
BUT FULL CONSISTENCY IS !
NEWES, New Energy Solutions February 29, 2016
A PLAY IN 3 ACTS…
I SETUP Denial and delay
II CONFRONTATION Overenthusiasm
III RESOLUTION Realism
NEWES, New Energy Solutions February 29, 2016
Moore
Maxwell
“ Unless there is an obvious reason to do otherwise,
most of us passively accept decision problems as they
are framed and therefore rarely have an opportunity to
discover the extent to which our preferences are frame-
bound rather than reality-bound ”
Daniel Kahneman
Nobel Prize in Economics 2002
Thinking, fast and slow 2011
NEWES, New Energy Solutions February 29, 2016
EPISTEMOLOGICAL
BARRIER
NEWES, New Energy Solutions February 29, 2016
http
://w
ww
.ext
rem
etec
h.co
m/e
xtre
me/
2108
72-e
xtre
met
ech-
expl
ains
-wha
t-is
-moo
res-
law
Gordon E. Moore, “Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits,” Electronics, pp. 114–117, April 19, 1965
MOORE NEWES, New Energy Solutions February 29, 2016
http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Documents/publications/mis2014/MIS2014_without_Annex_4.pdf
NEWES, New Energy Solutions February 29, 2016
http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Documents/facts/ICTFactsFigures2015.pdf
NEWES, New Energy Solutions February 29, 2016
IC
TECHNOLOGIES
ENABLE…
…
NEWES, New Energy Solutions February 29, 2016
Thanks to modern ICT full control at any level is possible
NEWES, New Energy Solutions February 29, 2016
“Give me a fixed point and I will move the world.”
Archimedes
“Give me a router and I will move the electricity market.”
Jorge Vasconcelos
NEWES, New Energy Solutions February 29, 2016
http://www.biographyonline.net/scientists/james-maxwell.html
MAXWELL NEWES, New Energy Solutions February 29, 2016
NATIONAL
SYSTEM
DISTRIBUT.
SYSTEM
CITY
BUILDING
HOME
THE CONTROL LOOP
PROBLEM:
WHO CONTROLS WHAT
AND
WHO COORDINATES ?
IC
TECHNOLOGIES
INTRODUCE
THE
CONTROL
LOOP
PROBLEM
NEWES, New Energy Solutions February 29, 2016
1) How to ensure control at each level ?
Within each layer, different control policies can be implemented, from a highly centralized approach, more or less replicating at each level the current national master/slave hierarchical structure, down to a fully decentralized structure.
2) How to define the functional interfaces between layers ?
In order to ensure effective coordination of the whole system it is necessary to exchange information between layers and to establish clear communication and control procedures. Protocols must be implemented both for normal and for abnormal operational conditions.
3) Who is the “controller of the controllers” and “controller of last resort” ?
“the control loop problem” :
NEWES, New Energy Solutions February 29, 2016
Control complexity, before and more than market complexity, is the problem
0
MARKET
COMPLEXITY
SYSTEM
CONTROL
COMPLEXITY
X
X
2020
NEWES, New Energy Solutions February 29, 2016
NEWES, New Energy Solutions February 29, 2016
SYSTEM
OPERATOR
MARKET
OPERATOR
SYSTEM
OPERATOR
MARKET
OPERATOR
NEWES, New Energy Solutions February 29, 2016
SYSTEM
OPERATOR
MARKET
OPERATOR
SYSTEM
OPERATOR
MARKET
OPERATOR
MARKETS
SYSTEMS
NEWES, New Energy Solutions February 29, 2016
• internat. • national
NATIONAL
SYSTEM
REGIONAL
SYSTEM
LOCAL
SYSTEM
• wholesale • system
services
NATIONAL
MARKET
• energy • services
REGIONAL
MARKET
• energy • services
LOCAL
MARKET
Thinking
outside
the box
Energy markets
NEWES, New Energy Solutions February 29, 2016
ACCOUNTING
&
BOOKKEEPING
1494
THE
PROBABILISTIC
REVOLUTION
1800-1930
THE
ACCOUNTING
COUNTER-
REVOLUTION
NOW
http
://b
logs
.spl
unk.
com
/wp-
cont
ent/
uplo
ads/
2014
/02/
Ihea
rtD
ata.
png
http
s://
book
craz
es.f
iles.
wor
dpre
ss.c
om/2
011/
11/1
paci
oli.
jpg
http
s://
teac
hbyt
es.fi
les.
wor
dpre
ss.c
om/2
014/
01/p
roba
bilit
y-di
ce.jp
g
http
://s
tati
c1.s
quar
espa
ce.c
om/s
tatic
/546
5252
1e4
b004
5935
420a
6c/t
/548
dee0
3e4b
0f1b
25cb
560
d5/1
4185
8765
2009
/Dat
a.jp
g?fo
rmat
=15
00w
NEWES, New Energy Solutions February 29, 2016
“ reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80-95% by 2050
compared to 1990 as agreed in October 2009 will require a
revolution in energy systems, which must start now ”
European Council, February 2011
NEWES, New Energy Solutions February 29, 2016
• TSO
• DSO
• regulators
• EC
• regulators
• academics
• market agents
• governement
• regulators
• new comers
(ICT)
• government
• market agents
energy
mix market
system
operation regulation
NEWES, New Energy Solutions February 29, 2016
NEWES, New Energy Solutions February 29, 2016
INNOVATION REALITY
CHECK
CHANGING ROLES BETWEEN