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@TexasDemography Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition, Characteristics and Distribution Texas County & District Retirement System Austin, Texas July 28, 2016

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Page 1: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

@TexasDemography

Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition, Characteristics and

Distribution

Texas County & District Retirement System

Austin, Texas

July 28, 2016

Page 2: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

Overview

• Texas demographics

• Population growth

• Race and ethnic trends

• Migration

• Aging population

• Population projections

2

Page 3: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Numeric Change (Millions) Population (Millions)

3All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012-2014 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2014

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates

Page 4: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

Population Growth, Texas, 1950-2010

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses4

Page 5: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

Tom

Green

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf

Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Val

Verde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

Red

River

Karnes

Palo

Pinto

Glasscock

Shelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

San

Augustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

Freestone

Winkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

Van

Zandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

San

Patricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

Hemphill

Hartley

Young

Burleson

Hardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

ComancheMitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

Jeff

Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

Jim

Wells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort

Bend

Bosque

Hockley

San

Saba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

Jim

Hogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San

Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

Live

Oak

Motley

Sherman

Ochiltree

Comal

Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2015

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates

tl_2010_48_county10

POPESTIMATE2015

112 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 500,000

500,001 - 4,538,028

5

Page 6: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2015

6Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2015 Vintage.

99 counties lost

population over the

five year period.

tl_2010_48_county10

NPOPCH1015

-1,913 - 0

1 - 1,000

1,001 - 20,000

20,001 - 80,000

80,001 - 444,952

Page 7: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2015

7Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2015 Vintage.

tl_2010_48_county10

PctPOPCH1015

-14.9% - 0%

0.1% - 2.5%

2.6% - 5%

5.1% - 10%

10.1% - 36.6%

Page 8: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

County

U.S. Rank

Population

Change

Population

Change

Percent of

Change from

Natural

Increase

Percent

Change

from

Migration

Percent

Change from

International

Migration

Harris 1 90,451 49.3% 50.7% 32.0%

Bexar 5 37,479 41.2% 58.8% 17.0%

Tarrant 6 36,152 46.3% 53.7% 20.2%

Dallas 9 33,760 68.1% 31.9% 39.0%

Fort Bend 13 29,437 20.7% 79.3% 16.5%

Collin 14 28,075 24.8% 75.2% 15.8%

Denton 16 25,820 25.5% 74.5% 11.7%

Travis 17 25,562 42.5% 57.5% 22.9%

Williamson 27 19,086 20.9% 79.1% 6.7%

Montgomery 29 18,505 19.2% 80.8% 9.9%*Dallas had net out domestic migration over this period.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates

Top Counties for Numeric

Growth in Texas, 2014-2015

Page 9: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

Top Counties for Percent

Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015

County U.S.

Rank

2014-2015

Percent

Population

Change

Percent

Change

from

Migration

Percent

Change from

International

Migration

Hays 1 5.2% 85.5% 1.9%Comal 2 4.5% 90.7% 2.1%

Fort Bend 4 4.3% 79.3% 16.5%Williamson 7 3.9% 79.1% 6.7%

Montgomery 10 3.6% 80.8% 9.9%Denton 12 3.4% 74.5% 11.7%

Ector 18 3.3% 63.1% 3.1%Midland 19 3.3% 66.2% 3.2%

Collin 23 3.2% 75.2% 15.8%Kaufman 25 3.1% 79.8% 3.2%

Parker 29 2.8% 89.8% 2.2%Brazos 32 2.8% 69.2% 27.4%

Guadalupe 38 2.7% 78.8% 4.6%Ellis 39 2.7% 77.2% 2.7%

*Among Counties with 10,000 or more population in 2014

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates

Page 10: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

Percent Population by Race and Ethnicity, Texas, 2000 and 2014

Hispanic or Latino39%

NH White43%

NH Black 12%

NH Asian4%

NH Other2%

10

Hispanic or Latino32%

NH White52%

NH Black 11%

NH Asian3%

NH Other2%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census, SF1 and Population Estimates, 2104

20142000

Page 11: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2014

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Po

pu

lati

on

Age

White (non-Hispanic)

Hispanic

11Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Page 12: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 + years

Male White, Non-Hispanic Female White, Non-Hispanic

12

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2014

Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 Population Estimates

Page 13: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 + years

Male Black, Non Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Male Hispanic Female Black, Non Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic Female, Hispanic

13

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2014

Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 Population Estimates

Page 14: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 + years

Male White, Non-Hispanic Male Black, Non Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Male Hispanic

Female White, Non-Hispanic Female Black, Non Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic Female, Hispanic

14

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2014

Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 Population Estimates

Page 15: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

89.5% 86.7%

41.5%

65.9%49.7% 53.7%

10.5% 13.3%

58.5%

34.1%

50.3% 46.3%

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Migration

Natural Increase

Components of Population Change by Percent

in Texas, 1950-2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

Page 16: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

The 10 U.S. States with the Largest Average Annual Net Domestic Migration by Rank, 2005-2013

16

125,778

69,801

67,501

53,863

48,050

38,189

33,504

27,763

25,422

24,684

Texas

Florida

North Carolina

Arizona

Georgia

South Carolina

Colorado

Washington

Oregon

Tennessee

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, 2015

Page 17: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

Components of Population Change for the Top Five Growth States, 2013-14

17

208,391

250,116

27,465 53,832

35,120

239,104 129,228

250,852

46,924 56,209

Texas California Florida Georgia Arizona

Natural Increase Net Migration

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, 2015

Page 18: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

Annual Shares of Recent Non-Citizen Immigrants to Texas by World Area of Birth, 2005-2013

18

Page 19: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

Percent of Housing Units Built Before 1960, Census

Tracts, Metroplex Area, Texas, 2009-2013

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2009-2013 5-Year Sample

Legend

tl_2010_48_tract10

PctHUBlt00plus

0% - 25%

25.1% - 45%

45.1% - 65%

65.1% - 80%

80.1% - 100%

Sources: Esri, DeLorme, HERE, USGS, Intermap, increment P Corp., NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China(Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom

19

Page 20: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

Percent of Housing Units Built Between 1960 and 1999, Census

Tracts, Metroplex Area, Texas, 2009-2013

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2009-2013 5-Year Sample

Legend

tl_2010_48_tract10

PctHUBlt00plus

0% - 25%

25.1% - 45%

45.1% - 65%

65.1% - 80%

80.1% - 100%

Sources: Esri, DeLorme, HERE, USGS, Intermap, increment P Corp., NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China(Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom 20

Page 21: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

Percent of Housing Units Built After 1999, Census

Tracts, Metroplex Area, Texas, 2009-2013

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2009-2013 5-Year SampleSources: Esri, DeLorme, HERE, USGS, Intermap, increment P Corp., NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China(Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom

Legend

tl_2010_48_tract10

PctHUBlt00plus

0% - 25%

25.1% - 45%

45.1% - 65%

65.1% - 80%

80.1% - 100%

21

Page 22: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

Estimated number of persons aged 65 years and older, Texas Counties, 2010-2014

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

Tom

Green

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf

Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Val

Verde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

Red

River

Karnes

Palo

Pinto

Glasscock

Shelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

San

Augustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

Freestone

Winkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

Van

Zandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

San

Patricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

Hemphill

Hartley

Young

Burleson

Hardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

ComancheMitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

Jeff

Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

Jim

Wells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort

Bend

Bosque

Hockley

San

Saba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

Jim

Hogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San

Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

Live

Oak

Motley

Sherman

Ochiltree

Comal

22

tl_2010_48_county10

Pop65P

6 - 4,999

5,000 - 14,999

15,000 - 29,999

30,000 - 74,999

75,000 - 371,456

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2010-2014 5 Year Sample

Page 23: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

Median Age, Texas Counties, 2010-2014

23Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2010-2014 5 Year Sample

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

Tom

Green

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf

Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Val

Verde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

Red

River

Karnes

Palo

Pinto

Glasscock

Shelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

San

Augustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

Freestone

Winkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

Van

Zandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

San

Patricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

Hemphill

Hartley

Young

Burleson

Hardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

ComancheMitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

Jeff

Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

Jim

Wells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort

Bend

Bosque

Hockley

San

Saba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

Jim

Hogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San

Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

Live

Oak

Motley

Sherman

Ochiltree

Comal

tl_2010_48_county10

MedAge

25 - 34

35 - 39

40 - 44

45 - 49

50 - 56

Page 24: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

Change in Median Age, Texas Counties, 2000-2014

Menard

Hale

Armstrong

Calhoun

Clay

Orange

Gonzales

Fannin

Kerr

Refugio

JimHogg

Dimmit

Nolan

Brazos

Jefferson

Bell

Bandera

Hidalgo

Schleicher

GraysonCrosby

Delta

Zavala

Rockwall

Eastland

DeWitt

Angelina

McLennan

Lamar

Leon

Stonewall

McMullen

Sutton

FortBend

Parker

Kinney

Fayette

Briscoe

Harrison

Reagan

Coleman

Ochiltree

Crane

Washington

Lynn

Mills

Oldham

Sabine

Hopkins

Houston

Bexar

Upton

Erath

Randall

Rusk

Coryell

Comal

Aransas

Jack

Hemphill

Shackelford

SanJacinto

Kendall

Wharton

Floyd

Karnes

Kaufman

Duval

Johnson

Franklin

EdwardsWaller

Maverick

Kleberg

Gaines

Martin

Bowie

Andrews

Potter

Garza

Caldwell

Parmer

TitusTerry

Foard

Real

Carson

Knox

Hays

Medina

MotleyWichita

Midland

Victoria

Tyler

Falls

Presidio

Willacy

Lubbock

Henderson

Walker

Galveston

Harris

Dawson

Pecos

Nacogdoches

Guadalupe

Tarrant

Jackson

Swisher

SterlingWinkler

Frio

Lipscomb

Collingsworth

Colorado

Wise

Glasscock

ShelbyComanche

Burnet

Gray

Hudspeth

Cass

Ellis

Cooke

Williamson

Cochran

VanZandt

Donley

Jones

Grimes

Irion

Navarro

Brooks

Dallam

Hunt

Mitchell

Wood

Childress

JeffDavis

Montague

Brown

Haskell

Fisher

Concho

Coke

Polk

Cottle

Young

Lee

Cherokee

Hall

Hood

ArcherBaylor

SanAugustine

Madison

Milam

Reeves

Nueces

Camp

Freestone

Runnels

Terrell

DeafSmith

Marion

Liberty

Jasper

Hansford

Chambers

Hardin

Collin

Brazoria

Throckmorton

Bastrop

Scurry

Ector

Limestone

Denton

RedRiver

Matagorda

Hardeman

PaloPinto

LiveOak

Sherman

Uvalde

Bailey

Culberson

Atascosa

Wilson

Starr

Dallas

Kimble

McCulloch

Crockett

Hill

Kent

El Paso

Loving

Dickens

La Salle

Lamb

Austin

Hutchinson

ValVerde

Smith

Robertson

Gillespie

King

TomGreen

Yoakum

Somervell

Kenedy

Borden

SanSaba

Burleson

Bee

Trinity

Castro

Brewster

Gregg

Ward

Wilbarger

Hamilton

Stephens

Lavaca

Bosque

Goliad

Roberts

Callahan

Rains

Morris

Lampasas

Upshur

Wheeler

SanPatricio

Moore

Webb

Blanco

Newton

Hockley

Panola

Anderson

Cameron

Montgomery

LlanoMason

Taylor

Hartley

JimWells

Zapata

Travis

Howard

24

Change in Median Age, 2000-2014

1 to 5 Years Younger (27 Counties)

No Change (57 Counties)

2 to 3 Years Older (100 Counties)

4 to 5 Years Older (49 Counties)

Greater than 5 Years Older (21 Counties)

Source: US Census Bureau US Census Bureau, 2000

Decennial Census, SF-1, Population Estimates 2014 Vintage.

Page 25: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Mill

ion

s

Zero Migration

0.5 of 2000-2010 Migration

2000-2010 Migration

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050

25Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections

Page 26: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

24

25

25

26

26

27

27

28

28

Mill

ion

s

Zero Migration

0.5 of 2000-2010 Migration

2000-2010 Migration

Estimates

Projected and Estimated Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2015

26Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections and U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

Page 27: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Mill

ion

s

0.5 of 2000-2010 Migration

2000-2010 Migration

Projected Growth of Population Aged 65 Years and Older in Texas, 2010-2050

27Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections

Page 28: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

19

50

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

14

20

20

20

30

20

40

20

50

Under 18

18 to 64

65+

Censuses Estimates Projections

28

Population Change by Age Group, Texas, 1950-2050

Source: US Census Bureau, 1950-2010 Censuses

US Census Bureau, State Population Estimates

Texas State Data Center, 2014 Population Projections, 1.0 Migration Scenario

Page 29: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

Population Projections 65 Years and Over by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2050

29

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

NH White

NH Black

Hispanic

NH Other

Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections , Half 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Page 30: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

Percent of the Population Aged 65 Years and Older without Health Insurance, Texas Counties, 2010-2014

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

Tom

Green

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf

Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Val

Verde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

Red

River

Karnes

Palo

Pinto

Glasscock

Shelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

San

Augustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

Freestone

Winkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

Van

Zandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

San

Patricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

Hemphill

Hartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

ComancheMitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

Jeff

Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

Jim

Wells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort

Bend

Bosque

Hockley

San

Saba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

Jim

Hogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San

Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

Live

Oak

Motley

Sherman

Ochiltree

Comal

30

tl_2010_48_county10

Pct65pNoHlthIns

0% - 0.5%

0.6% - 1%

1.1% - 2.5%

2.6% - 5%

5.1% - 7.8%

Page 31: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

Adult Obesity

31Source: http://stateofobesity.org/files/stateofobesity2015.pdf

Page 32: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

Review

• Growth – significant, fast, uneven

• Hispanic population driving growth

• Migration patterns are dynamic

• Baby-Boom aging

• Hispanic population young but aging

• Projected aging has implications for financial and heath issues

32

Page 33: Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition

Contact

Office: (210) 458-6530

Email: [email protected]

Internet: demographics.texas.gov

Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.

@TexasDemography

33