#changeagents, global stability, and international affairs · 7 billion global networked devices 4...
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#ChangeAgents,
Global Stability, and
International Affairs
dr. david a. bray @fcc_cio
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We Are Living in
Exponential Times
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when Voyager I launched in 1977
4.2 billion humans lived on Earth
global GDP = 7.2 trillion USD
and the Apple II went on sale that year
running at 1 MHz w/ 4 KB of RAM
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Voyager I traveled 3.7 billion miles by 1990
5.3 billion humans lived on Earth
global GDP = 22 trillion USD
Windows 3.0 released and CERN sets up
the first web server at info.cern.ch
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by 2013 >850 million web servers online
7.1 billion humans lived on Earth
global GDP = 75 trillion USD
7 billion global networked devices
4 ZB (billion TB) of digital content globally
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by 2022, 75-300 billion networked devices
8 billion humans will live on Earth
global GDP = ?? trillion USD
7 billion humans online & 96 ZB content
digital content >all human eyes see/year
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A Now, a Demonstration…
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The Top 5 Things Which
Every MBA Should Know
(Yet Often Aren’t Taught)
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(1) Most of Economics is NOT a science.
Game theory only explains 30% of real-world human
behavior; sometimes flipping a coin is more accurate.
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(2) Humans do not behave rationally. Information given
or withheld will cue us to behave irrationally.
Human desire for fairness is not rational.
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(3) B-School PhD have been debating the global
IT Productivity Paradox: $$$ spent on IT do not directly
correlate to increased productivity.
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(4) Economics assumes a planet with infinite resources.
Yes outer space exists, yet it remains a very expensive and
deadly environment for humans.
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(5) Top-down management techniques are sub-optimal
in turbulent environments. Examples: 9/11, SARS, Katrina.
A better, proven approach is to “empower the edge”.
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What This Means for
Global Stability and
International Affairs
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Point 1: Unlike past revolutions, this digital revolution
ultimately will improve organizational productivity
without needing more productive humans.
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Point 2: Most Western nations e are in the “low tide" of
globalization = hard to compete in a global free market
because currencies are strong vs. other currencies.
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Point 3: Jobs matter immensely. If humans sense too
large an imbalance, they will destabilize national
marketplaces and regimes globally.
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Analytics on the Future of
Jobs, Automation, and
Globalization Are Needed
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The “one-child policy” in China resulted in
the birth of 33 million more males than females.
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This winter more than 50% of people in
Russia will go hungry due to lack of food.
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In Afghanistan, Taliban has been manipulating the price
heroin via our counternarcotics efforts.
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All ‘Arab Spring’ countries now worse-off both
economically and socially, except Tunisia also declining.
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Unemployed male “youth bulges” and violent revolution
movements are strongly correlated in Africa & elsewhere.
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Positive #ChangeAgents
Needed Now More
Than Ever
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Your Innovative Spirit
Is Needed NOW
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Your Innovative Spirit
Is Needed NOW
leaders don
“flak jackets”
change
isn’t easy
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The Importance of You
public + non-profit orgs
gov’t workers
private sector
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If We Take the 232 (~4.3 billion) Numbers
Addressable by IPv4
& Put Them Into a Beach Ball
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The 2128 (~340 Followed By 36 zeros)
Numbers Addressable by IPv6
= The Volume of Our Sun
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Encouraging Job Creation
in a Free Market is
Vital to Global Stability
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(1) A minimal salary will not work in an era of scarce
resources because it will raise the cost of
scarce products to match the minimal salary.
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(2) Automation does pose the opportunity for us all to
work less hours, if all nations commit to working less.
If any group ‘defects’ we all will hurt.
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(3) The sharing economy, once automated, will put large
numbers of individuals out of work.
Truckers, cab drivers, delivery personnel, and more.
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(4) Humans intrinsically need to feel purposeful.
Multiple medical journals show an ‘Unemployment Effect’
on eroding physical, mental, and family health.
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(5) Shrinking middle classes in Western nations result in
a smaller consumer base to sell more products
creates a destabilizing ‘death spiral’ for markets.
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Hopes for 2017 and Beyond
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We can engage in conversations about these
issues and possible solutions across nations
and across sectors globally.
What We Can Do #1
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Analytics + IoT/IoE + AI allow us to observe how humans
ACTUALLY make economic choices individually and
globally we can grow a real science to inform policy.
What We Can Do #2
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We can involve the public in generating ideas to trigger
free market job creation and how to address the
“Unemployment Effect” in communities.
What We Can Do #3
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Both Experiments & Expertise
have the root “ex peria” meaning “out of danger”
Experiments Expertise.
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Carl Sagan in 1994:
Look again at that dot.
That's here. That's home.
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That's us.
On it everyone you love,
everyone you know –
Everyone you ever heard of, every human
being who ever was, lived out their lives.
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To me, it underscores
our responsibility to deal
more kindly with one another –
And to preserve and cherish the pale blue
dot, the only home we've ever known.
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onwards and upwards together
Global #ChangeAgents
Needed Now More
Than Ever