chad shriner's 2015 third quarter market report
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CONTACT US FOR A CUSTOMIZED ANALYSIS ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST! [ 1 ]
THE MARKETPLACE THIRD-QUARTER REPORTPERFORMANCE OF SINGLE FAMILY HOMES IN SELECT CITIES OF KING AND SNOHOMISH COUNTIES
2015 Q3 MARKET REPORT
CHAD [email protected]
425.533.3790
Recently we’ve seen double-digit drops in inventory and double-digit increases in sales, an unsustainable long-term pattern. Like our fall weather, our prediction for the future is cloudy. The short-term forecast, fortunately, indicates that it’s a great time to be both a seller and buyer.
For sellers, available homes on the market remain scarce. A normal Puget Sound market has 3-4 months housing supply. Currently King County has 1.4 months, and Snohomish has 1.9! At September’s end, listings were down 23% from 2014. If you’re thinking of selling your home, this fall may be the best time in the foreseeable future simply because of supply and demand.
For buyers, 30-year fixed interest rates are hovering under 4%. For years, the Fed has discussed raising rates but has continually waited for market improvement. They can’t delay any longer and MUST raise soon. We suggest buying ASAP because over the next few years, current rates could increase up to 50%. In addition, the federal government recently introduced new mandatory closing disclosure requirements (TRID) that will delay all financed closings by at least 1-2 weeks.
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” – George Santayana
Since January 2013 (when our market began to recover), we’ve seen a consistent trend when the calendar turns over to the new year: prices increase steadily through spring, level off during summer, and fall as the holidays approach. 2016 will most likely be different. Why?
1) It’s an election year without an incumbent presidential candidate. In 2000 and 2008, housing markets decreased and/ or were flat. Unpredictability causes fear.2) We are seeing a housing market similar to that of the 2006/07 election period that preceded the housing market crash in 2008. Developable land is scarce, builders and buyers are overpaying with multiple offers over asking price, and we are experiencing a large amount of new construction starts.3) Economic advisors are warning us that current trends are not sustainable, and we must heed the advice. When interest rates go up, affordability goes down. Where does that leave home prices? In the short-term, demand from foreign investors paying cash may continue to push pricing up. Those who rely on buyer financing will either rent, or adjust their real estate goals and buy “less” home than planned.
In summary, we are expecting a housing slowdown in 2016 and 2017. Contact your MSIR real estate professional to determine your optimal real estate goals and future, or for a customized, in-depth analysis on your area of interest. This is a call to action — the time to act is NOW!
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2015, A STRONG YEARIS IT SUSTAINABLE OR ARE THERE CHANGES AHEAD?
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THE MARKET TRENDSAVERAGES OF KING AND SNOHOMISH COUNTES
CONTENTSQ3 2015 MARKET REPORT
4 Woodinville Report
5 Redmond Report
6 Sammamish Report
7 Bellevue Report
8 Bothell Report
9 Kirkland Report
10 Duvall Report
11 Carnation Report
12 Snoqualmie Report
13 North Bend Report
14 Issaquah Report
15 Fall City Report
16 Kenmore Report
17 Lake Forest Park
18 Mercer Island Report
19 Seattle Report
20 Maple Valley Report
21 Kent Report
22 Renton Report
23 Snohomish Report
This report focuses on single family homes in the cities where we conduct most business. While we’re a global brokerage, we mainly work on the Eastside of the Puget Sound region, Olympia to Bellingham. Our numbers only reflect the averages of the communities featured in this report but the trends still accurately reflect county-wide trends.
TOTAL $ VOLUME AND # OF SALESThe Total Dollar Volume increased an average of 21% in the first three quarters of 2015 over the first three quarters of 2014, from $12.6 billion to $15.2 billion. The Number of Sales increased 12%, from 25,743 in 2014 to 28,933 in 2015. These are the metrics we use to analzye the long-term trends in each market segment because they best summarize the general market activity over long periods of time.
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOTThe Price Per Square Foot ($/SqFt) increased 8% from 2014 to 2015, from $221 to $238. This metric helps identify trends in market segments when large numbers of transactions are considered together over a period of time, and also is useful when comparing two properties on an apples-to-apples basis. In this case, it helps us understand that properties in this region are increasing in value on a square-foot-basis, rather than growing in size.
AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKETThe Average Days on Market (DOM) decreased 13% from 2014 to 2015, from 46 to 40 days. DOM is a good measure of Liquidity in a real estate market. Liquidity determines how quickly an asset can be sold and usually increases in parallel with price transparency and fungible assets. In liquid markets, fewer days are needed to sell a property. In the Greater Seattle Region, homes are selling in the blink of an eye, making it a highly liquid market. Seattle boasts the second lowest DOM in the U.S.
CURRENT MONTHS OF INVENTORYWith a surge of buyers and little increase in residential development, there is a shortage of inventory. The Months of Inventory of our market segments decreased 27%, from 2.2 to 1.6 months. With decreased inventory and increased demand, it doesn’t look like the scramble for homes will let up in the near future.
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WOODINVILLE YTD Q3 2014 YTD Q3 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 380 451 19%
Total Dollar Volume $230,717,000 $297,898,000 29%
Average Sale Price $607,200 $660,500 9%
Average Days on Market 45 44 -2%
Sold / List Price % 99.1% 99.7% 0.6%
Average Price Per Square Foot $222 $239 8%
Months of Inventory 2.2 1.6 -27%
Current Inventory in Units 141 90 -36%
WOODINVILLE REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
EQUESTRIAN ESTATE Just Listed for $1,825,000
CHART
CHAD SHRINER425.533.3790
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF WOODINVILLE HOMES
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REDMOND YTD Q3 2014 YTD Q3 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 838 926 11%
Total Dollar Volume $555,238 $640,695,000 15%
Average Sale Price $662,600 $691,900 4%
Average Days on Market 42 34 -19%
Sold / List Price % 100% 100.6% 0.6%
Average Price Per Square Foot $257 $271 5%
Months of Inventory 2.1 1.3 -38%
Current Inventory in Units 220 115 -48%
REDMOND REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
ENGLISH HILL ESTATE Sold for $910,000
CHART
CHAD SHRINER425.533.3790
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF REDMOND HOMES
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SAMMAMISH YTD Q3 2014 YTD Q3 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 762 795 4%
Total Dollar Volume $577,205,000 $643,377,000 12%
Average Sale Price $757,500 $809,300 7%
Average Days on Market 37 40 8%
Sold / List Price % 99.7% 99.9% 0.2%
Average Price Per Square Foot $253 $266 5%
Months of Inventory 1.8 1.4 -22%
Current Inventory in Units 176 117 -34%
SAMMAMISH REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TIMELESS ELEGANCE ON 4 ACRES Sold for $1,385,000
CHAD SHRINER425.533.3790
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF SAMMAMISH HOMES
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BELLEVUE YTD Q3 2014 YTD Q3 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 1,040 1,136 9%
Total Dollar Volume $920,579,000 $1,133,071,000 23%
Average Sale Price $885,200 $997,400 13%
Average Days on Market 30 28 -7%
Sold / List Price % 100.2% 100.1% -0.1%
Average Price Per Square Foot $314 $357 14%
Months of Inventory 1.6 1.2 -25%
Current Inventory in Units 237 172 -27%
BELLEVUE REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
CUSTOM CONTEMPORARY Sold for $1,150,000
CHAD SHRINER425.533.3790
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF BELLEVUE HOMES
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BOTHELL YTD Q3 2014 YTD Q3 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 1,129 1,330 18%
Total Dollar Volume $517,266,000 $641,651,000 24%
Average Sale Price $458,200 $482,400 5%
Average Days on Market 38 47 24%
Sold / List Price % 100% 100.4% 0.4%
Average Price Per Square Foot $194 $207 6.7%
Months of Inventory 2.3 1.6 -30%
Current Inventory in Units 375 278 -26%
BOTHELL REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
PRIVATE CUSTOM HOME Sold for $810,000
CHAD SHRINER425.533.3790
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF BOTHELL HOMES
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KIRKLAND YTD Q3 2014 YTD Q3 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 835 879 5%
Total Dollar Volume $574,677,000 $661,420,000 15%
Average Sale Price $688,200 $752,500 9%
Average Days on Market 41 31 -24%
Sold / List Price % 99.2% 100.2% 1%
Average Price Per Square Foot $291 $318 9%
Months of Inventory 2.1 1.6 -24%
Current Inventory in Units 241 202 -16%
KIRKLAND REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
SPECTACULAR WATERFRONT HOME Just listed for $3,800,000
CHAD SHRINER425.533.3790
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF KIRKLAND HOMES
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DUVALL YTD Q3 2014 YTD Q3 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 154 191 24%
Total Dollar Volume $64,714,000 $89,673,000 39%
Average Sale Price $420,200 $469,500 12%
Average Days on Market 40 41 3%
Sold / List Price % 99.2% 99.5% 0.3%
Average Price Per Square Foot $189 $202 7%
Months of Inventory 1.8 1.5 -17%
Current Inventory in Units 39 34 -13%
DUVALL REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
CHARMING COUNTRY ACREAGE Sold for $585,000
CHAD SHRINER425.533.3790
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF DUVALL HOMES
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CARNATION YTD Q3 2014 YTD Q3 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 95 86 -10%
Total Dollar Volume $47,285,000 $44,899,000 -5%
Average Sale Price $497,700 $522,100 5%
Average Days on Market 89 80 -10%
Sold / List Price % 99.2% 98.4% -0.8%
Average Price Per Square Foot $205 $213 4%
Months of Inventory 3.3 2.7 -18%
Current Inventory in Units 37 30 -19%
CARNATION REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
RESERVE AT LAKE JOY ESTATE Sold for $799,000
CHAD SHRINER425.533.3790
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF CARNATION HOMES
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SNOQUALMIE YTD Q3 2014 YTD Q3 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 321 354 10%
Total Dollar Volume $171,955,000 $192,282,000 12%
Average Sale Price $535,700 $543,200 1%
Average Days on Market 53 35 -34%
Sold / List Price % 99.2% 100.6% 1%
Average Price Per Square Foot $202 $211 4%
Months of Inventory 1.9 0.7 -63%
Current Inventory in Units 77 26 -66%
SNOQUALMIE REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
PRIVATE WOODED GETAWAY Sold for $579,500
CHAD SHRINER425.533.3790
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF SNOQUALMIE HOMES
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NORTH BEND YTD Q3 2014 YTD Q3 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 226 217 -4%
Total Dollar Volume $95,907,000 $99,761,000 4%
Average Sale Price $424,400 $459,700 8%
Average Days on Market 59 57 -3%
Sold / List Price % 98.7% 99.9% 1.2%
Average Price Per Square Foot $194 $211 9%
Months of Inventory 2.7 2.1 -22%
Current Inventory in Units 77 52 -33%
NORTH BEND REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
MOUNT SI VIEW HOME Sold for $584,000
CHAD SHRINER425.533.3790
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF NORTH BEND HOMES
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ISSAQUAH YTD Q3 2014 YTD Q3 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 629 612 -3%
Total Dollar Volume $388,796,000 $405,864,000 4%
Average Sale Price $618,100 $663,200 7%
Average Days on Market 30 33 10%
Sold / List Price % 100.2% 100.6% 0.4%
Average Price Per Square Foot $241 $268 11%
Months of Inventory 1.6 1.3 -19%
Current Inventory in Units 156 110 -30%
ISSAQUAH REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
BRIGHT VIEW HOME Sold for $450,000
CHAD SHRINER425.533.3790
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF ISSAQUAH HOMES
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FALL CITY YTD Q3 2014 YTD Q3 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 48 55 15%
Total Dollar Volume $29,364,000 $35,900,000 22%
Average Sale Price $611,800 $652,700 7%
Average Days on Market 113 74 -35%
Sold / List Price % 97.1% 95.7% -1.4%
Average Price Per Square Foot $219 $244 12%
Months of Inventory 4.4 3.2 -27%
Current Inventory in Units 30 19 -37%
FALL CITY REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TRADITIONAL HOME ON ACREAGE Sold for $774,850
CHAD SHRINER425.533.3790
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF FALL CITY HOMES
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KENMORE YTD Q3 2014 YTD Q3 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 226 318 41%
Total Dollar Volume $105,885,000 $172,503,000 63%
Average Sale Price $468,500 $542,500 16%
Average Days on Market 38 36 -5%
Sold / List Price % 100.2% 99.9% -0.3%
Average Price Per Square Foot $207 $225 9%
Months of Inventory 2.1 1.8 -14%
Current Inventory in Units 74 68 -8%
KENMORE REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
BRIGHT HOME IN QUIET LOCATION Sold for $389,000
CHAD SHRINER425.533.3790
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF KENMORE HOMES
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LAKE FOREST PARK YTD Q3 2014 YTD Q3 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 141 155 10%
Total Dollar Volume $76,756,000 $93,011,000 21%
Average Sale Price $544,400 $600,100 10%
Average Days on Market 37 32 -14%
Sold / List Price % 99.8% 99% -0.8%
Average Price Per Square Foot $221 $243 10%
Months of Inventory 2 1.3 -35%
Current Inventory in Units 46 30 -35%
LAKE FOREST PARK REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
SPACIOUS HOME ON LARGE LOT Listed for $1.3 million
CHAD SHRINER425.533.3790
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF LAKE FOREST PARK HOMES
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MERCER ISLAND YTD Q3 2014 YTD Q3 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 276 266 -4%
Total Dollar Volume $378,503,000 $403,263,000 7%
Average Sale Price $1,371,400 $1,516,000 11%
Average Days on Market 67 47 -30%
Sold / List Price % 97.4% 97.9% 0.5%
Average Price Per Square Foot $408 $441 8%
Months of Inventory 2.7 1.8 -33%
Current Inventory in Units 77 53 -31%
MERCER ISLAND REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TRANQUIL CONTEMPORARY HOME Sold for $459,000
CHAD SHRINER425.533.3790
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF MERCER ISLAND HOMES
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SEATTLE YTD Q3 2014 YTD Q3 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 5,909 6,243 6%
Total Dollar Volume $3,312,687,000 $3,879,869,000 17%
Average Sale Price $560,600 $612.500 11%
Average Days on Market 33 26 -21%
Sold / List Price % 100.9% 102.9% 2%
Average Price Per Square Foot $277 $309 12%
Months of Inventory 1.5 0.9 -40%
Current Inventory in Units 1,193 778 -35%
SEATTLE REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
SEATTLE LUXURY PENTHOUSE Listed for $1,200,000
CHAD SHRINER425.533.3790
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF SEATTLE HOMES
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MAPLE VALLEY YTD Q3 2014 YTD Q3 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 497 585 18%
Total Dollar Volume $180,267,000 $226,222,000 26%
Average Sale Price $362,700 $386,700 7%
Average Days on Market 37 34 -8%
Sold / List Price % 99.2% 99.6% 0.4%
Average Price Per Square Foot $161 $175 9%
Months of Inventory $2 1.2 -40%
Current Inventory in Units 140 86 -39%
MAPLE VALLEY REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
EXTRAORDINARY HOME ON PRIVATE LOT Sold for $500,000
CHAD SHRINER425.533.3790
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF MAPLE VALLEY HOMES
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KENT YTD Q3 2014 YTD Q3 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 849 1,087 28%
Total Dollar Volume $248,965,000 $357,192,000 44%
Average Sale Price $293,200 $328,600 12%
Average Days on Market 55 49 -11%
Sold / List Price % 99.3% 100.1% 0.8%
Average Price Per Square Foot $143 $155 9%
Months of Inventory 2.7 1.7 -37%
Current Inventory in Units 306 205 -33%
KENT REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
UPDATED COUNTRY CLUB HOME Sold for $425,000
CHAD SHRINER425.533.3790
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF KENT HOMES
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RENTON YTD Q3 2014 YTD Q3 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 1,222 1,480 21%
Total Dollar Volume $479,188,000 $608,029,000 27%
Average Sale Price $392,100 $410,800 5%
Average Days on Market 47 43 -9%
Sold / List Price % 99.7% 100% 0.3%
Average Price Per Square Foot $178 $188 5%
Months of Inventory $2.3 1.5 -35%
Current Inventory in Units 384 246 -36%
RENTON REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
CRAFTSMAN HOME ON ACREAGE Listed for $1,090,000
CHAD SHRINER425.533.3790
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF RENTON HOMES
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SNOHOMISH YTD Q3 2014 YTD Q3 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 671 796 19%
Total Dollar Volume $273,300,000 $354,369,000 30%
Average Sale Price $407,300 $445,200 9%
Average Days on Market 60 49 -18%
Sold / List Price % 99% 99.2% 0.2%
Average Price Per Square Foot $170 $183 8%
Months of Inventory 3 2.4 -20%
Current Inventory in Units 273 277 2%
SNOHOMISH REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
BEAUTIFUL TRADITIONAL HOME Sold for $910,000
CHAD SHRINER425.533.3790
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF SNOHOMISH HOMES
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I M A G I N EIT’S NOT LUXURY PRICES WE SERVE.IT’S LUXURY SERVICE CLIENTS EXPECT.
CHAD [email protected]
TURKS AND CAICOS Sold for $23 Million