cgm conspiracy

France Télécom Division R&D, San Francisco D1 - 02/12/09

CGM Metrics Industry Analysis

A Contrarian Proposal

Alan D. WIlensky, Analyst, vCastProfiles


New CGM vs. Brand Equity Consulting

Establishing the Practice of CGM Services is not centered solely on Technology.

The primary hindrance comes not from the early sector leaders – Cymfony, Umbria, Etc.

The multi-billion dollar brand equity and consumer demographics agencies are total owners of the Fortune 1000 in CPG, CE, Automotive, Etc.

Mid-Market companies do not control enough brand equity to benefit from CGM services due to low-frequency of "mentions".

However, the SME is the recipient of brand choices, and must adjust philosophy as to catalogs, relationships, and services outcomes.

A line must be connected between BI data from Call centers and CS info, and the in-the wild CGM metrics.


Late Breaking News

Cymfony Acquired by TNSAn Advertising Research ConglomerateOne Step Below Brand EquityWhat Does This Mean?Cymfony Topped Out Production / HiringBrand Suitors NOT InterestedAs Stated in Flair Report, CGM Metrics will Steer

Ad buying, Recommendations, CatalogsNow Cymfony is Hiring Again


Segmentation Shifting Underfoot

Agencies – Zero Tech Footprint (Umbria)CGM Hybrid Practices (Cymfony, Buzzmetircs)ASP models absent, but not undeclaredOther metrics (Influence, Buzzlogic)Expert Consultants (i-Alias, You-Know)Integrators – IBM, EDMS soonBI – not for deep analytics, but for outcomesTools


Sector Derivation1ST QUADRANT DERIVATION SECTOR SPLIT

Services w/Technology Footprint

Expert NLP Consultancies (i-Alias, You-Know)

Agency Services with Zero Technology Footprint(Umbria)

Tools - ASPs

Cymfony and Buzzmetrics

Refine Custom Queries Through Iterative Process 8-12 weeks

Sell by Custom Contract - 4-8 week closing process

Best Clients (internal brand mgrs. Unfamiliar with metrics)

3-5:1 Team Burden of support to production

Labor Limited

Considering more stock and syndicated reporting to address labor

The dash board ‘value add’ is also a custom features and slowsengagement

Early wins, slow growth, poorly integrated with standard brand equitypractices.

Some of the 1st rounds are very unhappy.

Buzzmetrics looks the most like a standard agency with sector analysts

Stock and Syndicated Research Mid-Long Term Objective

Labor Limited

Relies on Analysts in a ‘Brand Practice’ Model

Migrating to Wide Field Coverage, similar to Publishing Co.

Need to Automate the ‘freshening cycle’ and automated userssubscriptions (easy)

May be 1st tier takeover target

Under the gun to shorten latencies

Good model for now, good if syndication goes as planned

If not, Goodbye, it was fun.

Old line Brand Managers understand Umbria model, not the data, per‘se

Best for setting up in-house expertise, and they deliver

are leading experts in open source NLP tools

Have advised most of the high profile leaders

Small, autonomous, busy, collegial

Best results by far

Not suited to Brand Managers of the Old Guard

Suited to the New Age Technocratic Brand Boys and Girls

Poorly Marketed - that's the way they like it - iconoclasts

Good to have in your corner, no competition in the large scheme

Buzzmetrics only ASP - but few details as to costs and deployments

Slim evidence of hosted CSA services in the wild

Tools sector speaks a different language than CGM agencies

Slim differentiation between old line BI vendors

Open Source Cultural Split

Licensing Models are moderating but ghastly

2:1 ration of services to licenses - profitable

All crow the same story

Some newer crossover tools need old-line vendors for what they dobest, entity extraction and metadata


Trends

Custom to Syndicated Research – more cost efficient

Low Cost or Free via UTB – via blog hosts and aggregators

M&A – early indications of shift to advertising analytics support, and failure to impress brand equity giants – trend too early to call


Problem Extraction2nd Quadrant Problem Space

Focused and Hand Optimized Results

NLP Tools of the New Age

Experts

Optimization Occurs at Project or Thesauri Level (LXA)

Beyond CSA - Expansion of Metrics

Modular Ontology's for fine grained detection ofintergenerational lexicon

Expansion to wider arena of social media sphere

Deep Analysis of large durable goods market for MNCs

Massive Samples

Competes with Brand Equity Practices

High Level Quantitative Metrics

Same problems, different presentation

Pure Feelings and Live Reporting for Politicos

Most Difficult to Solve

Headlong Rush to Serve 2008 Presidential Campaign

Big $$$$ in % of ad buy

It’s already late to start

Large Demographics Firms on the case


Resell Space

3rd Quadrant Problem Space Resell

MNC’s high mentions of durable and high touch goods

Head to head with classical brand practices

Data is a curiosity at present but has provided early wins

Nothing for SME, yet….

Low mentions, victims of brands represented

SME needs way to reconcile brand and catalogrecommendations.

Deep Analysis of large durable goods market for MNCs

Massive Samples

Competes with Brand Equity Practices

High Level Quantitative Metrics

Same problems, different presentation

Pure Feelings and Live Reporting for Politicos

Most Difficult to Solve

Headlong Rush to Serve 2008 Presidential Campaign

Big $$$$ in % of ad buy

It’s already late to start

Large Demographics Firms on the case

Utility CGM Farming - the UTB

Ultra low-cost data returned via web services API

Built in ‘sentimeters’ ala FAST

Drive Prices to the Floor, opens new market for value addeddata visualization and integration VARS

Brand Reporting Library as a result of syndication

End of the era for the 200k 10 week engagement

The Jump is Coming as Experts are Replaced by Refined Technology


Business of Brand


Brand Channels


Crossover


Value Chain Segmentation

MNC: Fortune 500 CPG, CE, and Automotive spends 100's M to billions on brand equity

Curious about CGM, threw a few bones to the leaders

Concerned that there are no standards between vendors – measurements differ for identical training sets. Disconcerting.

Awaiting integrated solutions with full metrics


SME $$$ Sensitive

SME’s not Brand Owners

SME is Interventionist

SME Seeks Catalog and BrandGuidance

Interested in Outcomes

SME’s are Cost Sensitive and not thetypical Brand Equity Client

SMEs are the subject or victims or brandchoices

Services Corps are interested in real-timestats from call centers

Distributors and Sales orgs. want tomonitor the brands they represent

SME wants to Act and Adjust in Real-Timeas Influence Action Oriented Enterprise


Value Chain cont. SME: Tough nut to crack – victim, not owner of brand.

Greatest Disruptive Opportunities !!

Q: An empty, unexploited sector – why?

A: Requires creativity, resources, tangential thinking

Needs a flex model to span MNC services that connect to SME's that represent their brands, and…

A model that delivers daily, cost effective, actionable brand intelligence.

Current CSA offerings are woefully inadequate for both the MNC and especially SME – not actionable or relatable to operations, interventions, decision support.

This is why the early entrants have modeled after agencies (add expert commentary).


Balanced CGM ServicesEvolving Metrics and Services Value Spectrum - A Young Industry Still Evolving

S I A I PSentiment Influence Attention Intention Provenance E/$ Ratio

Engagement /Dollars Ratio vs.Maturity of Metric

CGM CSBI

Balance & Reconcile CGM with CSOutcomes and Report in Real Time with

Mobile J2ME handsets

Real-Time Audits

Live CS Stats

Compare with CGM Data via UTB and Dealers / Distributors List

Magic Triangle

SpeechRecognition

NLP - StatsMobile

Reporting

Ads - F

ees

For the SMEA Real-Time Reporting and Alerting Tools to Measure Outcomes and

Catalog Performance

Does CSBI Match CGM Metrics in the Wild?

For MNC

Measure and Reconcile Dealer / Distributor Performanceand Match Against CGM metrics in the wild.


If it was only so simple….

Web Unstructured data Repositories

• Blogs

• Wikis

• Forums

• Usenet group

Linguistic

and Statistical

processing

Data Extraction Text Analytics Visualization

Customer Relationship Management

Business Process

Management

Business Rules Engine

Business Intelligence

Text Analytics + Enterprise wide applications = Strategic decision making

Previous Flair Report basically accurate, but market model is significantly more in flux, dependent on classic brand services, and needs to supersede state of technology.


Two Way StreetSME wants product line performance dataMNC wants dealer and distributor outcome dataBoth have CS data – can sanitize and open to

both. Reconcile CS data and CS outcomes with highly

targeted CGM metrics – Highly Accurate and Structured Ontology – Brand, Product,

Distributor, Dealer, Customer, Contact, Reason, Outcome. SME monitors and adjusts product lines and ad buy A much lower cost steering than typical brand consulting MNC gets real-time outcomes on D/D performance

It's the opposite of vague CSA metrics !


A Dream or a Nightmare?

Will companies open CS data from call centers?How to Incentivize? There are big wins for both.MNC through SME connection as distribution,

retailer and dealer chains have contiguous CS and shared brand/product performance monitoring concerns.

But from different perspectivesWill they Cooperate? If we show them how it

works.


Side by Side

Integrates with Call CenterMeasures PerformanceVerifies Catalog ChoicesTracks Brand and

Channels through most consumer touch points .

Complex Technical Engagements at first, but gets better as standardization matures.

No IntegrationMimics Brand Equity

Practices, and badly at that.

No standards from vendor to vendor

Soon to be commoditized No continuity, stops at

subjective language, and is less authoritative than panels and surveys.

Balanced Services CSA Early Sector


Organization

Practice SeniorLeadership

Director ofTech

PracticePartners

AccountEngagement

Staff

ApplicationsTeam Leader Senior Staff

Scientist

SystemsOperations

Staff

SystemsOperations

Staff

SystemsOperations

Staff

Support andTraining

ActingArchitect

Tech StaffMembers

Asst. TechDir.

Tech StaffMembers

LinguisticResearch Staff


Engagement

Outreach(summary)

Cal

l Bac

ks

Respond RFP

Actors

Time-L

ine

Pro

ject A

tts.Outreach Cycle

Accounts

Del

ive

r -

Pu

nch

Live

Teams

Tests

ET

L

Engage

EngagePre-Engage

Bud

get

Concordance

Sp

ecs.

Pre-Engage

Reports Suites


Breakthrough: the UTCSPPO

The Universal Taxonomy of Customer Service and Product Performance Outcomes

Unambiguous Grading of Entire Retail or B2B chain that unifies mentions of brand, products, interactions, outcomes, and CGM

Tight Modular Ontologies – Directly Actionable No nonsense predictors of catalog performanceRepeatable metrics of distributor and dealer

performance.


CSBI - - - - CGM

Brand

Product

Distributor

Dealer

Interaction

Outcome

Impression

Desire

Redress

Advice

Line

Call Centers

Warranty Data

Third Party

Internal QC

ProductManagement

Blogs

Forums

MSM

USENET

Social Media

UTCSPPO Schema


Power sports Dealers

Brand

Product Line

Model ID

UTB Domain

CGM Metrics Sentiment Influence Intent Provenance

UTB Web Services

Many providers will make UTB web services availableto query brand / product / basic metrics. Theseaggregate metrics may be used in place of compilingcorpora via crawling.

Dealer Networks

Contact Interactions

Outcomes Declarations Desires Redress Pronouncements

unR

eso

lved

BadLocal

Elevate

Pos

itio

ns

experiencedObserved

Fel

t

WantedHopedfor

So

ugh

t in

Act

ion

DemandsExpectations

deci

sion

s

AdvisoriesDecisions

De

ale

r or

Dis

t.N

etw

ork

Mo

del

Dyn

am

ics

Fa

mili

es

Warranty OutcomesLine PerformanceCustomer Service

Natural Language Entity Machinery - Ontology Parser Verifier - Statistical Model Refinement

cgm conspiracy

Technology

brand equitywhat

brand practice model

dollar brand equity

brand equity consulting

standard brand equitypractices

recipient of brand choices

old line brand managers

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