certified reliability engineer exam preparation · demonstrate how reliability engineers interact...
TRANSCRIPT
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Certified Reliability EngineerExam Preparation
Presented at:
9th Annual Reliability & Maintainability Training Summit
2-3 Nov 2016
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Introductions
Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE, Consulting Reliability Engineer• Mechanical Engineer
• 40-years experience (1975 – present)
You• Employer
• Current Field:
• Engineering Discipline
• Experience in Years
CRE Exam Prearation 2
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Test Question
A. I can vote for an answer
B. Not an answer
CRE Exam Prearation 3I c
an v
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Not an a
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Employer
A. Government
B. Government Contractor
C. Private Sector
Govern
men
t
Govern
men
t Contr
acto
r
Private
Sec
tor
0% 0%0%
CRE Exam Prearation 4
0 of 1Answer Now
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Current Field
A. Design/Prototype Test
B. Systems Engineering & Integration/ Development-Operational Test
C. Sustainability for Fielded Systems
Design/P
roto
type T
est
Syst
ems E
nginee
ring &
Inte
grat
...
Sust
ainabili
ty fo
r Fie
lded Sy
stem
s
0% 0%0%
CRE Exam Prearation 530
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Engineering Discipline (BS Degree)
A. Mechanical
B. Electrical
C. Civil
D. Chemical
E. Systems
F. Industrial
G. Computer
H. Software
I. Physics
J. Chemistry
Mech
anica
l
Elect
rical
Civil
Chemica
l
Syst
ems
Indust
rial
Compute
r
Softw
are
Physics
Chemist
ry
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%0%0%0%0%0%
CRE Exam Prearation 630
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Experience (in years since BS)
A. 0 – 4
B. 4 – 8
C. 8 – 12
D. Over 12
0 – 4
4 – 8
8 – 1
2
Over 1
2
0% 0%0%0%
CRE Exam Prearation 730
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Goal Daniel SillivantPass the exam
The Certified Reliability Engineer ExamDuration: 5-hrs
Number of Questions: 150 {that is 120sec / question
Multiple choice with 4 alternatives
Coverage: The body of knowledge as described in the Certified Reliability Engineer Primer
Open Book – Includes the ‘Primer’ without the question sheets and these notes, RAC Reliability Toolbox
Bring pencils, scratch paper, calculator
CRE Exam Prearation 8
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
American Society for Quality (ASQ) Certified Reliability Engineer (CRE) Preparation Class QM 300 3.6 CEU’s Class dates: 17 Jan thru 4 Apr 2017. Meets Tuesday nights from 5:00 to 8:00 PM at Calhoun Community College (Huntsville Campus).POC: JENNIFER GEIGER, (256) 306-2584 Email: [email protected] May attend in person or online
Instructor/Facilitator: Jim Bartlett, ASQ CRE; Work phone: (256) 313-9075, Cell phone: (256) 341-7167Email: [email protected] or [email protected]
Cost: $595 Includes CRE Primer and exam practice CD. DEADLINE TO REGISTER: December 20, 2016.
Additional study material will be provided in class. Also, optional references will be suggested to cover specific topics.
Course Summary:O Introduction and Reliability Management (2 weeks- January 17 & 24)O Probability and Statistics (3 weeks-January 31, February 7 & 14) O Reliability in Design (2 weeks-February 21 & 28)O Modeling & Prediction (1.5 weeks-March 7 & 14)O Reliability Testing (1.5 weeks-March 14 and 21)O Maintainability & Availability (1 week-March 28)O Data Collection (1 week-April 4)
Exams: Several open-book “take-home” exams will be assigned. They do not count toward a class grade, but will help the student plan preparations for the ASQ CRE exam.
Grades: Pass/fail, based solely on attendance. Attendance : Must attend (either in person or over the phone) 70% of the 12 classes, or no fewer than 9 of 12 classes to pass the class. If you need to miss a class, please notify instructor in advance if possible.
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Reliability Engineering Body of Knowledge
Reliability Management {19 questions
Probability and Statistics for Reliability {25 questions
Reliability in Design and Development {25 questions
Reliability Modeling and Predictions {25 questions
Reliability Testing {23 questions
Maintainability and Availability {17 questions
Data Collection and Use {18 questions
Sum ??? 172 questions
CRE Exam Prearation 10
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Reliability ManagementStrategic Management
CRE Exam Prearation 11
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Strategic Management
Demonstrate how reliability engineering improves programs, processes, products and services
Define and describe quality and reliability and how they relate to each other
Demonstrate how reliability engineers interact with marketing, safety, product liability, engineering, manufacturing and logistics (analysis methods)
Explain how reliability integrates with other development activities (program interactions)
Explain reliability engineering role in determination of failure consequences and liability management (warrantee)
Determine impact of failures on service and cost throughout product’s life-cycle
Describe how reliability engineering provides feedback to determine customer needs and specify product and service requirements
Interpret basic project management tools and tools: Gannt, PERT, Critical Path, QFD
CRE Exam Prearation 12
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Strategic Management
Examples of reliability program benefits include:
A. Matching product design with customer’s application
B. Applying predictive and preventive maintenance
C. Optimize burn-in time
D. All of the above
CRE Exam Prearation 13
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Examples of reliability program benefits include:
A. Matching product design with customer’s application
B. Applying predictive and preventive maintenance
C. Optimize burn-in time
D. All of the above
CRE Exam Prearation 14M
atchin
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Optimize
burn
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All of t
he above
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Examples of reliability program benefits include:
A. Matching product design with customer’s application
B. Applying predictive and preventive maintenance
C. Optimize burn-in time
D. All of the above
Key word(s); reliability program benefits
Index lists page II-3
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Reliability ManagementReliability Program Management
CRE Exam Prearation 17
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Reliability Program Management
Terminology – reliability definitions
Element of a reliability program• Design-for-Reliability• FRACAS
Product life-cycle costs• Life-cycle stages with relationship to reliability• Maintenance costs• Life expectation• Duty cycle
Design evaluation
Requirements management
Reliability training programs
CRE Exam Prearation 18
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Reliability Program Management
The usefulness of FMEA as a design tool is largely dependent on the _______________ of the communication within the design process:
A. Existence
B. Quantity
C. Effectiveness
D. Frequency
CRE Exam Prearation 19
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
The usefulness of FMEA as a design tool is largely dependent on the _______________ of the communication within the design process:
A. Existence
B. Quantity
C. Effectiveness
D. Frequency
CRE Exam Prearation 20
Exist
ence
Quantity
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
The usefulness of FMEA as a design tool is largely dependent on the _______________ of the communication within the design process:
A. Existence
B. Quantity
C. Effectiveness
D. Frequency
Key word(s); FMEA, communication, design process
Index lists page II-11
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Reliability ManagementProduct Safety and Liability
CRE Exam Prearation 23
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Product Safety and Liability
Role of reliability engineering
Ethical issues
System safety program• Risk assessment tools
o FMECA
o PRAT
o FTA
CRE Exam Prearation 24
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Product Safety and Liability
Reliability engineering applied failure consequences analysis to address:
A. Product failure expectation
B. Personal injury concerns
C. Training requirements
D. Product testing requirements
CRE Exam Prearation 25
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Reliability engineering applied failure consequences analysis to address:
A. Product failure expectation
B. Personal injury concerns
C. Training requirements
D. Product testing requirements
CRE Exam Prearation 26Pro
duct fa
ilure
exp
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inju
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Product Safety and Liability
Reliability engineering applied failure consequences analysis to address:
A. Product failure expectation
B. Personal injury concerns
C. Training requirements
D. Product testing requirements
Key word(s); Product safety, consequences
Index lists page II-17
CRE Exam Prearation 27
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE CRE Exam Prearation 28
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Probability and Statistics for ReliabilityBasic Concepts
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Basic Concepts
Terminology – statistical definitions
Basic probability concepts• Independence• Mutually exclusive• Complementary• Conditional• Joint occurrence• Expected value
Discrete and continuous distributions• Binomial• Poisson (homogeneous & non-
homogeneous)• Exponential• Lognormal• Weibull• Normal• Bathtub curve
Statistical Process Control• Terminology – SPC definitions• Relationship to reliability
CRE Exam Prearation 30
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Reliability Terminology
Table of contents and index have entry for “Reliability Terminology”
Primer provides a multi-page table that includes all of the terms and definitions
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE CRE Exam Prearation 32
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Basic Concepts
Distinction between:• Mean
• Point estimate of the mean
• Measure of central tendency
CRE Exam Prearation 33
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
The measure of central tendency is:
A. Mean
B. Mode
C. Median
D. All of the above
CRE Exam Prearation 34
Mean
Mode
Media
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
The Central Limit Theory
A. Treats all sample data as normally distributed
B. Is applicable to only normally distributed data
C. States that the means of the samples are normally distributed
D. None of the above
CRE Exam Prearation 35Tr
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE CRE Exam Prearation 36
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
The measure of dispersion is:
A. The range
B. The Variance
C. The interquartile range
D. All of the above
CRE Exam Prearation 37
The r
ange
The V
ariance
The i
nterq
uartile
range
All of t
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
The measure of dispersion is:
A. The range
B. The variance
C. The interquartile range
D. All of the above
Primer only mentions range and variance by finding page in index for “measure of dispersion”.
But right answer is either one of the first three or D, yet A and B are correct, therefore the answer must be D.
CRE Exam Prearation 38
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Shortcut Formula for Standard Deviation
Given:• SX
• SX2
• N
Then:• Var = [SX2 – (SX)2/n]/(n-1)
• Std Dev = sqrt(VAR)
CRE Exam Prearation 39
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Find Standard DeviationGiven SX = 35.8, SX2 = 257.14, n = 5
A. 0.40299
B. 0.812
C. 0.203
D. 0.451
CRE Exam Prearation 400.4
0299
0.812
0.203
0.451
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Find Standard DeviationGiven SX = 35.8, SX2 = 257.14, n = 5
VAR = [SX2 – (SX)2/n]/(n-1)
VAR = [257.14 – (35.8)2/5]/(5-1) = 0.812/4 = 0.203
Std Dev = sqrt(0.203) = 0.45056
A. 0.40299 – divided VAR by n = 5, not n-1 = 4
B. 0.812 – did not divide numerator by n-1
C. 0.203 – did not take sqrt of VAR
D. 0.451
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Probability Concepts
Union of events – – stated as events A or B occur - Addition
Intersection of events – – stated as events A and B occur –Multiplication
Additive Rule P(A B) = P(A and B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
Multiplication Rule P(A B) = P(A or B) = P(A)P(B)
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Counting
Permutation – number of ways that n items can be arranged taking them r at time where order matters
nPr = n!/(n-r)! – NOTE: 0! = 1• A B C can be arrange as ABC, ACB, BAC, BCA, CAB, CBA, AB, BA, AC, CA, BC, CB,
A, B, C
• Permutation of n = 3 at r = 3: 3P3 = 3!/(3-3)! = (3)(2)(1)/1 = 6
• Permutation of n = 3 at r = 2: 3P2 = 3!/(3-2)! = (3)(2)(1)/1 = 6
• Permutation of n = 3 at r = 1: 3P1 = 3!/(3-1)! = (3)(2)(1)/(2)(1) = 3
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Counting
Combination– number of ways that n items can be arranged taking them r at time where order does not matter
nCr = n!/r!(n-r)! – NOTE: 0! = 1• A B C can be arrange as ABC, AB, AC, BC, A, B, C
• Combination of n = 3 at r = 3: 3C3 = 3!/3!(3-3)! = (3)(2)(1)/(3)(2)(1) = 1
• Combination of n = 3 at r = 2: 3C2 = 3!/2!(3-2)! = (3)(2)(1)/(2)(1) = 3
• Combination of n = 3 at r = 1: 3C1 = 3!/1!(3-1)! = (3)(2)(1)/(2)(1) = 3
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Advanced Concepts
Statistical interval estimates• Confidence intervals – {UCI & LCI, LCL, UCL – NOTE: treatment of a
• Tolerance intervals – design variance
Hypothesis testing• Means
• Variances
• Proportions
• Type I & II error
Bayesian technique
CRE Exam Prearation 45
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE CRE Exam Prearation 46
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Normal Confidence Intervals
Given: Confidence – C% = 90%, Sample size – n = 30Sample mean – 𝑋 = 100, Standard deviation, s = 10
Find confidence intervals about the sample mean• Find Standard error of the mean, s.e. =
Find confidence intervals for the sample
CRE Exam Prearation 47
n
s
..
..
2/
2/1
eszXLCI
eszXUCI
a
a
szXLCI
szXUCI
2/
2/1
a
a
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Normal Confidence Limits
Given: Confidence – C% = 90%, Sample size – n = 30Sample mean – 𝑋 = 100, Standard deviation, s = 10
Find appropriate confidence limit about the sample mean• Find Standard error of the mean, s.e. =
Find confidence intervals for the sample
CRE Exam Prearation 48
n
s
..
..1
eszXLCI
eszXUCI
a
a
szXLCI
szXUCI
a
a
1
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Confidence Intervals and Limits, z Sampling Statistic
CRE Exam Prearation 49
mean = 100
s = 10
n = 30
se = 1.83
a = 0.1 LCL UCL LCI UCI LCL UCL LCI UCI
za = -1.282 97.66 87.18
z1-a = 1.282 102.34 112.82
za/2 = -1.645 97.00 83.55
z1-a/2 = 1.645 103.00 116.45
Mean Sample
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Confidence Intervals and limits, small sample size, n < 30
Given: Confidence – C% = 90%, Sample size – n = 15Sample mean – 𝑋 = 100, Standard deviation, s = 10
Use Student-t rather than za• ta,n …where n = degrees of freedom = n - 1
CRE Exam Prearation 50
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Confidence Intervals and Limits, t Sampling Statistic
CRE Exam Prearation 51
mean = 100
s = 10
n = 15
se = 2.58
a = 0.1 LCL UCL LCI UCI LCL UCL LCI UCI
ta,n = -1.345 96.53 86.55
t1-a,n = 1.345 103.47 113.45
ta/2,n = -1.761 95.45 82.39
t1-a/2,n = 1.761 104.55 117.61
Mean Sample
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE CRE Exam Prearation 52
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE CRE Exam Prearation 53
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE CRE Exam Prearation 54
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Censored MTBF Confidence Limits
CRE Exam Prearation 55
T = 2750
r = 3
a = 0.10
c2a,2r+2 = 13.36 c2
1a,2r = 2.20 c2a,2r+2 = 12.59 c2
1a,2r = 1.64
q > 411.6 q < 2495.3 q > 436.8 q < 3363.1
Time Censored Failure Censored
LCL UCL LCL UCL
2
,
2
naq
T
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE CRE Exam Prearation 56
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Exponential Hazard Function
CRE Exam Prearation 57
ℎ 𝑡 =𝑓(𝑡)
𝑅(𝑡)=
𝜆𝑒−𝜆𝑡
𝑒−𝜆𝑡= 𝜆
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Given: Reliability of a part with an exponential reliability calculated to be 0.95 for a 10-hr mission duration. Find the reliability of the part for another mission given that the part has accumulated 100 hours (10 missions)? R(10|t = 100)
A. R = 0.9510
B. R = 0.95
C. R > 0.95
D. Not enough Information
CRE Exam Prearation 58
R = 0
.9510
R = 0
.95
R > 0
.95
Not enough
Info
rmatio
n
0% 0%0%0%
30
Response Counter
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE CRE Exam Prearation 59
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE CRE Exam Prearation 60
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE CRE Exam Prearation 61
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE CRE Exam Prearation 62
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE CRE Exam Prearation 63
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Probability and Statistics for ReliabilityStatistical Inference
CRE Exam Prearation 64
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE CRE Exam Prearation 65
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Six test articles were put on test for 1000-hrs each with 2 failures with replacement. What is the point estimate of the MTBF.
A. 500
B. 1500
C. 3000
D. 6000
CRE Exam Prearation 66500
1500
3000
6000
0% 0%0%0%
30
Response Counter
Answer Now
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Six test articles were put on test for 1000-hrs each with 2 failures with replacement. What is the point estimate of the MTBF.
A. 500
B. 1500
C. 3000
D. 6000
MTBF = nT/r = (6)(1000)/2 = 3000
CRE Exam Prearation 67
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE CRE Exam Prearation 68
Time-censored with replacement
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE CRE Exam Prearation 69
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE CRE Exam Prearation 70
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
The sample MTBF is 200 hrs with a standard deviation of 24 hrs. Sample size is 8 test articles. Find the 90% lower confidence limit for the MTBF given ta,n = 1.4
A. 166.04
B. 188.8
C. 202.45
D. 233.96
CRE Exam Prearation 71166
.04
197.5
5
202.4
5
233.9
6
0% 0%0%0%
30
Response Counter Answer Now
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
The sample MTBF is 200 hrs with a standard deviation of 24 hrs. Sample size is 9 test articles. Find the 90% lower confidence limit for the MTBF given ta,n = 1.4
A. 166.4
B. 188.8
C. 202.425
D. 233.6
LCL = 200 – (1.4)(24)/SQRT(9) = 188.8
CRE Exam Prearation 72
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE CRE Exam Prearation 73
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE CRE Exam Prearation 74
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Find the lower confidence limit for the MTBF for three test article failures for 1200 hours total test time.
A. 400
B. 155
C. 77
D. 1200
CRE Exam Prearation 75400 155 77120
0
0% 0%0%0%
30
Response Counter Answer Now
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Find the 95% lower confidence limit for the MTBF for three test article failures for 1200 hours total test time.
A. 400
B. 155
C. 77
D. 1200
Chi-square from the table for a = 0.05 and 8 degrees of freedom (2r+2) is 15.5. MTBF = 2T/2
a,2r+2 = (2)(1200)/15.5 = 154.84 ~ 155.
CRE Exam Prearation 76
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE CRE Exam Prearation 77
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE CRE Exam Prearation 78
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE CRE Exam Prearation 79
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE CRE Exam Prearation 80
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Reliability in Design and DevelopmentReliability Design Techniques
CRE Exam Prearation 81
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Reliability Design Techniques
Use factors• Environmental
o Temperatureo Humidityo Vibrationo Corrosiveo Pollutants
• Stresseso Static & dynamic loadso Severity of serviceo Electrostatic dischargeo Radio frequency interference
Stress-strength analysis
FMEA in design
FTA in design
Tolerance and worst-case analyses
Robust design approaches (DOE)• Independent and dependent
variable• Factors and levels• Error• Replication• Experimental design – full &
fractional factorials
Human factors reliability
CRE Exam Prearation 82
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Reliability in Design and DevelopmentParts and Systems Management
CRE Exam Prearation 83
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Parts and Systems Management
Parts Selection
Materials selection and control
Derating methods and principles• S-N diagram
• Stress-life relationship
Establishing specifications
CRE Exam Prearation 84
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE CRE Exam Prearation 85
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE CRE Exam Prearation 86
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Analysis finds part strength has a mean of 1200 with a std dev of 50. Mean stress is 900 with a std dev of 100. Find the reliability.
A. 0.9963
B. 0.0037
C. 0.75
D. 0.5
CRE Exam Prearation 870.9
963
0.0037
0.75
0.5
0% 0%0%0%
30
Response Counter Answer Now
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Analysis finds part strength has a mean of 1200 with a std dev of 50. Mean stress is 900 with a std dev of 100. Find the reliability.
A. 0.9963
B. 0.0037 - unreliability
C. 0.75 =900/1200
D. 0.5 =50/100
z = (1200 – 900)/sqrt(502 + 1002) = 2.68
U = 0.0037 from the standard normal table
R = 1 – U = 0.9963
CRE Exam Prearation 88
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Reliability Modeling and PredictionsReliability Modeling
CRE Exam Prearation 89
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Reliability Modeling
Sources of reliability data
Reliability block diagrams and models
Simulation techniques
CRE Exam Prearation 90
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Serial Assembly – Reliability Calculation
CRE Exam Prearation 91
Assembly
LRU1 LRU2 LRUn
Reliability Block Diagram
1 2
1
( )i n
n
ASSY LRU LRU LRU LRU
i
R t R t R t R t R t
Let:R1(t) = 0.90R2(t) = 0.95R3(t) = 0.99
Then:RASSY(t) = (0.90)(0.95)(0.99) = R1(t)R2(t)R3(t) = 0.8465
If:R1(t) = R2(t) = R3(t) = R(t) = 0.95
Then:RASSY(t) = (R(t))3 = (0.95)3 = 0.8574
Serial Design ConfigurationReliability Rule-of-Thumb
RASSY(t) ≤ MIN{Ri(t)}
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Given the following RBD, the assembly reliability is…
A. Greater than 0.97
B. Between 0.95 & 0.97
C. Between 0.93 & 0.95
D. Less than 0.93
CRE Exam Prearation 92
Greate
r than
0.9
7
Between 0
.95 &
0.9
7
Between 0
.93 &
0.9
5
Less
than
0.9
3
0% 0%0%0%
0.97 0.95 0.93
30
Response Counter Answer Now
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Given the following RBD, the assembly reliability is…
A. Greater than 0.97
B. Between 0.95 & 0.97
C. Between 0.93 & 0.95
D. Less than 0.93
CRE Exam Prearation 93
0.97 0.95 0.93
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Given the following RBD, the assembly reliability is…
A. 0.95
B. 0.9999
C. 0.857
D. 0.925
CRE Exam Prearation 94
0.95
0.9999
0.857
0.925
0% 0%0%0%
30
Response Counter Answer Now
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Given the following RBD, the assembly reliability is…
A. 0.95
B. 0.9999
C. 0.857
D. 0.925
R = (0.97)(0.95)(0.93) = 0.857
CRE Exam Prearation 95
0.97 0.95 0.93
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Serial Assembly – Equal Reliability Allocation
CRE Exam Prearation 96
Assembly
LRU1 LRU2 LRUn
Reliability Block Diagram
Assembly in Down State
OR
LRU1 Fails LRU2 Fails
Fault Tree Analysis
LRU3 Fails
1
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
i
i
n
ASSY LRU
i
nLRU ASSY
R t R t
R t R t
Given:RASSY(t) = 0.99884nLRU = 3
Then:3( ) 0.99884 0.999628LRUR t
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Find the reliability allocation for B, C & D in a serial design configuration given that the reliability requirement for A is 99%
A. 0.97
B. 0.996655
C. 0.999999
D. 0.785
CRE Exam Prearation 97
0.97
0.99665
5
0.99999
9
0.785
0% 0%0%0%
30
Response Counter Answer Now
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Find the reliability allocation for B, C & D in a serial design configuration given that the reliability requirement for A is 99%
A. 0.97
B. 0.996655
C. 0.999999
D. 0.785
R Allocation = RA(1/n) = 0.99(1/3) = 0.996655
Note: RA = RBRCRD = R Allocation3 = 0.9966553 = 0.99
CRE Exam Prearation 98
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Serial System – Equal Reliability Allocation
CRE Exam Prearation 99
Rsys 0.99
nsubsys 3
Rsubsys
nsubsysRsys 0.996655
nassy 3
Rassy
nassyRsubsys 0.998884
nLRU 3
RLRU
nLRURassy 0.999628
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Given the following RBD, the assembly reliability is…
A. Greater than 0.97
B. Between 0.95 & 0.97
C. Between 0.93 & 0.95
D. Less than 0.93
CRE Exam Prearation 100
Greate
r than
0.9
7
Between 0
.95 &
0.9
7
Between 0
.93 &
0.9
5
Less
than
0.9
3
0% 0%0%0%
30
Response Counter
0.97
0.95
0.93
Answer Now
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Given the following RBD, the assembly reliability is…
A. Greater than 0.97
B. Between 0.95 & 0.97
C. Between 0.93 & 0.95
D. Less than 0.93
CRE Exam Prearation 101
0.97
0.95
0.93
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Given the following RBD, the assembly reliability is…
A. Greater than 0.97
B. Between 0.95 & 0.97
C. Between 0.93 & 0.95
D. Less than 0.93
CRE Exam Prearation 102
Greate
r than
0.9
7
Between 0
.95 &
0.9
7
Between 0
.93 &
0.9
5
Less
than
0.9
3
0% 0%0%0%
30
Response Counter
0.97
0.95
0.93
Answer Now
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Given the following RBD, the assembly reliability is…
A. 0.95
B. 0.9999
C. 0.857
D. 0.925
R = 1 - (0.03)(0.05)(0.07) = 0.9999
CRE Exam Prearation 103
0.97
0.95
0.93
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Parallel Assembly Reliability Calculation
CRE Exam Prearation 104
Assembly in Down State
LRU1 Fails LRU2 Fails
Fault Tree Analysis
AND
LRU3 Fails
Assembly
LRU1
LRU2
LRU3
Reliability Block Diagram
1 2 3
1 2 3
1 2 3
3
1
( ) ( )
( ) 1 ( ) 1 ( )
( ) 1 ( )
( ) 1 1 ( ) 1 ( ) 1 ( )
iASSY LRU LRU LRU LRU
i
ASSY ASSY LRU LRU LRU
LRU LRU
ASSY LRU LRU LRU
U t U t U t U t U t
R t U t U t U t U t
U t R t
R t R t R t R t
Let:R1(t) = 0.90 U1(t) = 0.10R2(t) = 0.95 U2(t) = 0.05R3(t) = 0.99 U3(t) = 0.01
Then:UASSY(t) = (0.10)(0.05)(0.01) = 0.00005
RASSY(t) = 1 - UASSY(t) = 0.99995
If:R1(t) = R2(t) = R(t) = 0.95
Then:UASSY(t) = (U(t))3 = (0.05)3 = 0.000125
RASSY(t) = 1 - UASSY(t) = 0.999875
Parallel Design Configuration Reliability Rule-of-Thumb:RASSY(t) ≥ MAX{Ri(t)}
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Parallel Assembly Reliability Allocation
CRE Exam Prearation 105
Assembly
LRU1
LRU2
Reliability Block Diagram
LRU3
Let:Rassy(t) = 0.99 Uassy(t) = 0.01
Then:
OR
Rassy 0.99
Uassy 1 Rassy 0.01
nLRU 3
RLRU 1nLRU
Uassy 0.785
ULRU
nLRUUassy 0.215
RLRU 1 ULRU 0.785
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Find the reliability allocation for B, C & D in a parallel design configuration given that the reliability requirement for A is 99%
A. 0.97
B. 0.996
C. 0.999999
D. 0.785
CRE Exam Prearation 106
0.97
0.996
0.99999
9
0.785
0% 0%0%0%
30
Response Counter Answer Now
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Find the reliability allocation for B, C & D in a parallel design configuration given that the reliability requirement for A is 99%
A. 0.97
B. 0.996
C. 0.999999
D. 0.785
R Allocation = 1-UA(1/n) = 1 – (1-0.99)(1/3) = 0.785
NOTE: RA = 1 – (1 – R Allocation)3 = 1 – (1 – 0.785)3 = 1 – (0.215)3 = 0.99
CRE Exam Prearation 107
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Parallel Design – Equal Reliability Allocation
CRE Exam Prearation 108
ith Higher LevelDesign
Configuration
jth Lower LevelDesign
Configuration
jth Lower LevelDesign
Configuration
jth Lower LevelDesign
Configuration
1 2
( ) 1 1
: ( ) ( ) ( )
: ( ) 1 1
( ) 1
( ) 1 ( )
( ) 1 ( )
( ) 1 ( ) ( )
( ) 1 ( ) ( )
( ) 1 ( )
n
i j
j
n
n
i j
j j
n
i j
n
j i
nn n n
j i i
n nj i i
j j
R t R t
Assume R t R t R t
Then R t R t
U t R t
R t U t
U t R t
U t R t U t
U t R t U t
R t U t
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Stand-by Design Logic
CRE Exam Prearation 109
Primary
Stand-by
Primary
Stand-by
Switch
Primary
Stand-by
Primary
Stand-by
Switch
Primary
Stand-by
Primary
Stand-by
Switch
Normally Closed
Switch Engaged
Perfect Switch Imperfect Switch
Normally Open
Fail Open Fail Closed Fail in Operation
Mechanical – typically Weibull Digital – typically exponential
Mechanical failure mode - evident to operator/maintainer
Digital failure mode- hidden to operator/maintainer
Mechanical FD/FI - less potential for BIT/BITE
Digital FD/FI- high potential for BIT/BITE
Mechanical & digital subject to significant pre-Log downtime
Mechanical subject to significant post-Log downtime
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Equal Failure Rates – Perfect Switch
CRE Exam Prearation 110
Equal Failure RatesPerfect Switch
Exponential Failure Model
PrimaryPart
StandbyPart
SW ( ) ( ) 1p pRassy R
= 80
p = 0.010000
1] Equal Failure Rate, Perfect Switch (P = S)
R(|t) = Rp(|t)(1 + p)
0.999950
p = 0.000125Rp(|t) = 0.990050
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Unequal Failure Rates – Perfect Switch
CRE Exam Prearation 111
Unequal Failure RatesPerfect Switch
Exponential Failure Model
PrimaryPart
StandbyPart
SW ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )p
assy p p ss p
R R R R
p/(s-p) = 0.290698
= 80
2] Unequal Failure Rate, Perfect Switch (P < S)
R(|t) = Rp(|t) + [(p/(s - p)][Rp(|t) - Rs(|t)]
0.999782
p = 0.000125
s = 0.000555
Rp(|t) = 0.990050
Rs(|t) = 0.956571
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Equal Failure Rates – Imperfect Switch
CRE Exam Prearation 112
Equal Failure RatesImperfect Switch
Exponential Failure Model
PrimaryPart
StandbyPart
SW ( ) ( ) 1 ( )assy p sw pR R R t
= 80
p = 0.010000
3] Equal Failure Rate, Imperfect Switch (P = S)
R(|t) = Rp(|t)[1 + Rsw(|t)p]
0.999374
Rp(|t) = 0.990050
Rsw(|t) = 0.941765
p = 0.000125
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Unequal Failure Rates – Imperfect Switch
CRE Exam Prearation 113
Unequal Failure RatesImperfect Switch
Exponential Failure Model
PrimaryPart
StandbyPart
SW ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )p
assy p sw p ss p
R R R R R
p/(s-p) = 0.290698
= 80
4] Unequal Failure Rate, Imperfect Switch (P < S)
R(|t) = Rp(|t) + Rsw(|t)[p/(s - p)][Rp(|t) - Rs(|t)]
0.999215
Rp(|t) = 0.990050
Rs(|t) = 0.956571
Rsw(|t) = 0.941765
p = 0.000125
s = 0.000555
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Complex RBD – Cut Set Method
CRE Exam Prearation 114
A B
C D
E
Cut Set A B C D E Path
Terms 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.97 R/U
AB 0.96 0.95 0.91
CD 0.94 0.93 0.87
AED 0.96 0.93 0.97 0.87
CEB 0.95 0.94 0.97 0.87
-ABCD 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 -0.80
-ABDE 0.96 0.95 0.93 0.97 -0.82
-ABCE 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.97 -0.83
-ACDE 0.96 0.94 0.93 0.97 -0.81
-BCDE 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.97 -0.81
-(2)ABCDE 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.97 -1.55
+(4)ABCDE 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.97 3.09
Reliability = 0.994
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Reliability Modeling and PredictionsReliability Predictions
CRE Exam Prearation 115
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Reliability Predictions
Part count and part stress analysis
Advantages and limitations
Reliability prediction methods
Reliability apportionment and allocation
CRE Exam Prearation 116
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Parts Count Method for MTBF & MTTR
CRE Exam Prearation 117
Part MTBF FR n nFR MTTR FR*MTTR
A 1000 0.0010 1 0.0010 2.5 0.0025
B 300 0.0033 2 0.0067 3 0.0100
C 500 0.0020 4 0.0080 5 0.0100
D 200 0.0050 3 0.0150 1 0.0050
SFR = 0.0113 SnFR = 0.0307 SFR*MTTR = 0.0275
MTBF = 32.61 MTTR = 2.4265
Assembly
MTBF by Parts Count Method MTTR
A B C D
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Keynote Component Model
CRE Exam Prearation 118
A B
C D
E
GIVEN:
RA = 0.96079
RB = 0.95123
RC = 0.94176
RD = 0.93239
RE = 0.97045
pp VI – 20 – VI - 23
FIND: Reliability of the keynote component, RR = 1 – PF where PF = Unreliability, UPF = UABCDRE + UABCDUE
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
STEP 1
CRE Exam Prearation 119
A B
C D
RAC = 0.99772 1 - (1-RA)(1-RC)
RBD = 0.99670 1 - (1-RB)(1-RD)
RABCD = 0.99443 (RAC)(RBD)
UABCD = 0.00557 1-RABCD
UABCDRE = 0.00541
STEP 1
FIND: PF = UABCDRE
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
STEP 2
CRE Exam Prearation 120
A B
C D
RAB = 0.91393 (RA)(RB)
RCD = 0.87809 (RC)(RD)
RABCD = 0.98951 1 - (1-RAB)(RCD)
UABCD = 0.01049 1-RABCD
UABCDUE = 0.00031
STEP 2
FIND: PF = UABCDUE
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
STEP 3 & 4
CRE Exam Prearation 121
USYS = 0.00572 UABCDRE + UABCDUE
RSYS = 0.99428 1 - USYS
STEP 3
STEP 4
SOLVE: Reliability of the keynote component, RSTEP 3: PF = UABCDRE + UABCDUE
STEP 4: R = 1 – PF
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Keynote Component Model Problem
CRE Exam Prearation 122
GIVEN:
RA = 0.95
RB = 0.94
RC = 0.98
RD = 0.99
RE = 0.90
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Keynote Component Model Solution
A. 0.95
B. 0.99999
C. 0.998
D. 0.76
CRE Exam Prearation 123
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Keynote Component Model Solution
CRE Exam Prearation 124
RAC = 0.99900 1 - (1-RA)(1-RC) RAB = 0.89300 (RA)(RB) USYS = 0.00176 UABCDRE + UABCDUE
RBD = 0.99940 1 - (1-RB)(1-RD) RCD = 0.97020 (RC)(RD)
RABCD = 0.99840 (RAC)(RBD) RABCD = 0.99681 1 - (1-RAB)(RCD)
RSYS = 0.99824 1 - USYS
UABCD = 0.00160 1-RABCD UABCD = 0.00319 1-RABCD
UABCDRE = 0.00144 UABCDUE = 0.00032
STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3
STEP 4
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Shared Load Parallel Model
CRE Exam Prearation 125
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Reliability TestingReliability Test Planning
CRE Exam Prearation 126
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Reliability Test Planning
Elements of a reliability test plan
Types and applications of reliability testing
Test environment considerations
CRE Exam Prearation 127
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE CRE Exam Prearation 128
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE CRE Exam Prearation 129
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Reliability TestingDevelopmental Testing
CRE Exam Prearation 130
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Development Testing
Accelerated life test – ALT• Single stress• Multiple stress• Sequential stress
Step stress testing – HALT
Reliability growth testing• AMSAA• Duane• TAAF
Software testing• White box• Fault injection
CRE Exam Prearation 131
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Reliability TestingProduct Testing
CRE Exam Prearation 132
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Product Testing
Assess purpose, advantage and limitations• Qualification/demonstration testing
o Sequentialo Fixed length
• Product reliability acceptance test – PRAT• Stress screening
o ESSo HASSo Burn-in
• Attribute testingo Binomialo Hypergeometric
• Degradation testing• Software testing
CRE Exam Prearation 133
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE CRE Exam Prearation 134
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Maintainability and AvailabilityManagement Strategies
CRE Exam Prearation 135
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Management Strategies
Maintainability and availability planning
Maintenance strategies• Corrective maintenance – reactive
• Preventive maintenance – proactiveo RCM
Maintainability apportionment/allocation
Availability tradeoffs
CRE Exam Prearation 136
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
AvailabilityA = Uptime/(Uptime + Downtime)
CRE Exam Prearation 137
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Maintainability and AvailabilityAnalyses
CRE Exam Prearation 138
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Analyses
Maintenance time distributions• Lognormal• Weibull
Preventive maintenance (PM) analysis• Tasks• Intervals• Non-applicability
Corrective maintenance (CM) analysis• Fault isolation time – AKA FD/FI• Repair/replace time• Skill level
Testability
Spare parts strategy
CRE Exam Prearation 139
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Data Collection and UseData Collection
CRE Exam Prearation 140
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Data Collection
Types of data• Attribute (discrete) v continuous
• Compete v censored
Data sources
Collection methods
Data management• Acquisition
• Media
• Database
CRE Exam Prearation 141
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Data Collection and UseData Use
CRE Exam Prearation 142
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Data Use
Analysis• Algorithmic
• Graphic
FOR
• Math Modeling
• Trend Analysis
• ANOVA
Measures of effectiveness
CRE Exam Prearation 143
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Data Collection and UseData and Failure Analysis Tools
CRE Exam Prearation 144
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Dr Bill Wessels PE CRE
Data and Failure Analysis Tools
FMEA
Criticality analysis• Hazards analysis
• Severity analysis
• Consequences analysis
FTA
FRACAS
CRE Exam Prearation 145