centenarians and health in australia john mccormack phd (& a/prof heather booth anu) latrobe...
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Centenarians and Health in Australia
John McCormack PhD (& A/Prof Heather Booth ANU)
LaTrobe University, Victoria, Australia
Paper for Eleventh International Federation on Ageing 28-1 June 2012, Prague, Czech Republic
Marathon at age 100yrs?(Fauja Singh)
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Jean Calment 40yrs(**NB All photos on public record or with informed consent)
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Jean Calment 60yrs
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Jean Calment 116yrs
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Jean Calment 118 yrs
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Jean Calment 122+ years
Historical Old Age in Australia1761 – 1875: 114 years Bendigo
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Christina Cock – 114 (Australia)
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Jack Lockett 111 years(Australia)
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Indigenous Australians
WW1 Vet Claude Choules 1901
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What is old age?Redefining old age?
•Traditionally An age of dependency? An age when one has to be provided for?•Life Expectancy 1900 approx 51 years / 1908 Age Pension at age 65 years•2010 LE 83.7 years•Big increase in LE. New demographic groups of people emerging
Growing older
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Rectangularisation of the survival curve
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100 the new 80??(actually 72 is the new 65! [ABS 3302.0])
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Centenarian StudyResearch Questions
• 1. What are the characteristics of people aged 100 years or more at first assessment?
• 2. How do centenarians compare with younger aged cohorts at first assessment?
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1. ACAS (Vic) Data 2002-03
• Aged care Assesment Service: 53951 Ax
• Centenarians Assessed (first Ax): 109• Australian census 2006: .12% pop 65+
assessments )
• Data Analysis:• Single Year Age comparison • Cohort comparison - 60s, 80s, 100s
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Centenarians - Age
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Centenarian Characteristics by single year of age
100 101 102 103 104 105 108
% female
76 82 62 100 100 100 0
Home owner
57 53 38 33 100 33 0
% married
26 26 0 0 0 0 0
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Centenarian Characteristics by single year of age (%)
100 101 102 103 104 105 108
Mobility 62 62 50 0 100 33 0
Continence
51 35 4 4 4 2 0
Orientation
67 67 37 0 50 0 0
Mob, aware & cont
53 38 6 3 0 0 0
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Centenarian Characteristics by single year of age
100 101 102 103 104 105 108
R’mend Resi NH
22 24 62 100 0 66 100
R’mend
High Care
22 24 62 100 0 66 100
R’mend Rehab
5 6 12 0 0 0 0
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2. Cohort Comparison
Socio-demog characteristics by Age Group
60s(111)
70s(123)
80s(93)
90s(79)
100+(109)
% female 55 65 63 82 100
Home owner 68 72 73 59 53
% married 46 43 35 5 22
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Health Social characteristics by Age Group
60s(111)
70s(123)
80s(93)
90s(79)
100+(109)
Mobility 68 68 68 58 58
Continence* 78 71 69 60 46
Orientation* 78 69 74 62 60
Mob, aware & cont (N)
59
53%
54
(44%)
40
(43%)
31
(39%)
34
(31%)
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destinations by Age Group
60s(111)
70s(123)
80s(93)
90s(79)
100+(109)
R’mend Resi NH*
12 9 12 18 30
R’mend
High Care
11 9 12 18 30
R’mend Rehab
21 14 9 12 5
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Conclusion Centenarian ACAS Data
• Centenarians = The Same and slightly Different?• As expected, slight functional decrease with age.• Age 100 ‘fitter’ than 104 +• Younger centens receive more services than very old ones. • Received services = more to ‘young’• Recommended for resi Nursing Home increases with age• As expected, more health issues with increasing centenarian
age.• No Sig differences on most variables!• Some Heterogeneity: Like younger cohorts (some go home
alone etc.)• CONCLUSION: Further research is needed to understand
the relationships between age, functional ability, living arrangements and recommended aged care services for our oldest old citizens.
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Conclusion- The Future
• Will we live to 150• Will we live 1000 years (Aubrey de Grey)• Are we heading for Immortality• Will we reach the Singularity
• Three Views on this : (Olshansky)• 1.Futurists• 2.Optimists• 3. Realists
• Implications:Population
• Longevity Dividend or Longevity risk or both?