cenrep camp resources 2011 pires de matos, sills, nc state university cenrep – camp resources 2011...
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CEnREP Camp Resources 2011 Pires de Matos, Sills, NC State University
CEnREP – Camp Resources 2011
Pedro Pires de Matos*Erin O. Sills
NC State University
Environmental Law in the Amazon: Testing Impacts onLand-Use Dynamics using Spatial Panel Models
* Corresponding author: [email protected]
Wrightsville Beach NC, August 7-9
CEnREP Camp Resources 2011 Pires de Matos, Sills, NC State University
Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon
Environmental Law
Outline
Data
Econometric Models for Spatial Panels
Results
CEnREP Camp Resources 2011 Pires de Matos, Sills, NC State University
Deforestation in the Amazon
12% - 30%(van der Werf, 2009 –FAO, 2006)
CEnREP Camp Resources 2011 Pires de Matos, Sills, NC State University
Deforestation in the Amazon
The “Arc of Deforestation”
CEnREP Camp Resources 2011 Pires de Matos, Sills, NC State University
Annual loss of forest cover in the Brazilian Legal Amazon
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Source: INPE 2011
Deforestation in the Amazon
Km2
Source: Mongabay.com, 2011
Small-scaleagriculture(20-25%)
Cattle ranching(65-70%)
Large-Scaleagriculture(5-10%)
Other 1-2%)
Logging (2-3%)
Causes of deforestationin the Brazilian Amazon,
2000-2005
CEnREP Camp Resources 2011 Pires de Matos, Sills, NC State University
The first Forestry Code was created with Federal Decree N. 23.793, from 1934.
The concept of Legal Amazon was created in 1953 (Federal Law 1.806).
• The Forestry Code was substantially revised by Federal Law n. 4.771, from 1965.
• Defines small properties:• Small property in Legal Amazon <150 ha.• Minimum of 80% of household income from agro-forestry or extraction.
• Defines Permanent Protection Areas (Área de Preservação permanente – APP):• Protect water resources, soil, landscape, biodiversity and population’s wellbeing.
• Defines Legal Reserve (Reserva Legal – RL):• Preserve ecosystems and biodiversity.
Environmental Law in Brazil
CEnREP Camp Resources 2011 Pires de Matos, Sills, NC State University
• APP – Protect resources and provide ecosystem services• River margins (riparian corridors)• Lakes and other bodies of water• Water springs• Top of hills and mountains• Steep hillsides (> 45 degrees)• High erosion areas• High altitude areas (> 1800m)• Urban green areas (e.g. protection of highway corridors)
• RL – Preserve ecosystems and biodiversity• 80% of rural properties’ area in the Legal Amazon
• Lowered to 50% for deforested properties• RL can be shared by several lots and be located in a different place
within the same hydrographical basin
Environmental Law in Brazil
CEnREP Camp Resources 2011 Pires de Matos, Sills, NC State University
• APP – Protect resources and provide ecosystem services• River margins (riparian corridors)• Lakes and other bodies of water• Water springs• Top of hills and mountains• Steep hillsides (> 45 degrees)• High erosion areas• High altitude areas (> 1800m)• Urban green areas (e.g. protection of highway corridors)
• RL – Preserve ecosystems and biodiversity• 80% of rural properties’ area in the Legal Amazon
• Lowered to 50% for deforested properties• RL can be shared by several lots and be located in a different place
within the same hydrographical basin
Environmental Law in Brazil
CEnREP Camp Resources 2011 Pires de Matos, Sills, NC State University
The question:
Are these legal instruments effective?
The research question
The answer:
Yes No It dependsAn economist’s default answer
X
CEnREP Camp Resources 2011 Pires de Matos, Sills, NC State University
Study Area
9392 Lots
20 Km0
CEnREP Camp Resources 2011 Pires de Matos, Sills, NC State University
Total area per land use/land cover
Data
CEnREP Camp Resources 2011 Pires de Matos, Sills, NC State University
0 - 10 %
10 - 45 %
45 - 55 %
55 - 90 %
90+ %
1984
Data
0 - 10 %
10 - 45 %
45 - 55 %
55 - 90 %
90+ %
0 - 10 %
10 - 45 %
45 - 55 %
55 - 90 %
90+ %
0 - 10 %
10 - 45 %
45 - 55 %
55 - 90 %
90+ %
1996 2000 2005
0 - 10 %
10 - 45 %
45 - 55 %
55 - 90 %
90+ %
2009
Forest cover as percentage of lot area
CEnREP Camp Resources 2011 Pires de Matos, Sills, NC State University
The question:
Are these legal instruments effective?
The research question
The answer:
Yes NoX
The “actual” research question:
Are these legal instruments affecting land use/land cover change dynamics?
(i.e. do farmers alter their behavior around legally defined minimum forest cover levels?)
It dependsAn economist’s default answer
CEnREP Camp Resources 2011 Pires de Matos, Sills, NC State University
Data
CEnREP Camp Resources 2011 Pires de Matos, Sills, NC State University
Age of Lot
Firstoccupation
Lot settlement year2/3 consecutive years:Visible pasture > 0.5 haDecrease in forest > 0.5 haVisible urban class
Spatiallyweighted
Spatial weightingLocate 10 nearest neighbours (NN)If age gap between lot and youngest of 8 NN > 10 y Assign that age to lot
Official Date(INCRA)
CEnREP Camp Resources 2011 Pires de Matos, Sills, NC State University
Market access
Distance tomain city
Distance tonearest market
CEnREP Camp Resources 2011 Pires de Matos, Sills, NC State University
Key variables
RiversForest Cover 2000
CEnREP Camp Resources 2011 Pires de Matos, Sills, NC State University
Spatial panel models
t
CEnREP Camp Resources 2011 Pires de Matos, Sills, NC State University
Random effects
Spatial panel modelsPooled cross sections
Fixed effects
CEnREP Camp Resources 2011 Pires de Matos, Sills, NC State University
Spatial panel modelsSpatial Lag Model (SLM)
Spatial Error Model (SEM)
CEnREP Camp Resources 2011 Pires de Matos, Sills, NC State University
Spatial panel models
Spatial Durbin Model (SDM)
Generalized Spatial Model (GSM)
CEnREP Camp Resources 2011 Pires de Matos, Sills, NC State University
The Model
CEnREP Camp Resources 2011 Pires de Matos, Sills, NC State University
Results
CEnREP Camp Resources 2011 Pires de Matos, Sills, NC State University
Results
CEnREP Camp Resources 2011 Pires de Matos, Sills, NC State University
Results
CEnREP Camp Resources 2011 Pires de Matos, Sills, NC State University
Conclusions and ongoing work
Environmental legislation is not effective...... but farmers appear to “acknowledge” its presence.
Policy implications:
Improved enforcement decelerates deforestation (obvious).
Enforcement above incentives/subsidies (e.g. REDD+)?
Working with sub-samples and additional covariates.Incorporating HH survey data.
CEnREP Camp Resources 2011 Pires de Matos, Sills, NC State University
Thank you for your time. Questions?
CEnREP – Camp Resources 2011Wrightsville Beach NC, August 7-9
Erin O. SillsPedro Pires de Matos*
NC State University
* Corresponding author: [email protected]
Environmental Law in the Amazon: Testing Impacts onLand-Use Dynamics using Spatial Panel Models