Mark Ashwell

Trends in Intelligence – Some Thoughts

1960 -70 National 2011 Commercial

INSTABILITY

WICKED PROBLEMS

GEOSPATIAL INTELLIGENCE

INTELLIGENCE PROCESSES

MULTI INT FUSION

ACTIVITY BASED INTELLIGENCE

1970

Corona

2000

Google

SCOPE

CHALLENGES OF

INSTABILITY

Inter State Warfare

Intra State Warfare

Insurgency

Terrorism

Criminality (Drugs - Arms )

Poverty & Disease

Ethnic and Religious Tension

Challenge for Resources

Probable Poppy fields Kandahar Afghanistan

Probable Poppy

Somali Piracy

Irene SL

INFORMATIVE TEXTS

Kaplan – The Coming Anarchy

Huntington – The Clash Of Civilizations

Van Krefeld – The Transformation of War

Barnett - The Pentagon’s New Plan

Krulak – The 3 Block War

Smith – The Utility of Force

(Wars Amongst the People)

Friedman - Hot, Flat and Crowded

Kilcullen – The Accidental Guerrilla

Kahneman- Thinking Fast and Slow

CHALLENGES OF

INSTABILITY

Inter State Warfare

Intra State Warfare

Insurgency

Terrorism

Criminality (Drugs - Arms )

Poverty & Disease

Ethnic and Religious Tension

Challenge for Resources

WICKED PROBLEMSProbable Poppy fields Kandahar Afghanistan

Probable Poppy

Somali Piracy

Irene SL

WHAT IS WICKEDProfessor Keith Grint – Wicked Problems and Clumsy Solutions

Critical (Crisis) Problem – Command – Provide Answers

Tame Problem - Management – Process Solutions

Wicked Problem – Leadership – Questions (Understanding and Integration)

RECENT LESSONS

Understanding the Human Terrain -

(Kilcullen)

Strategies for Iraq and Afghanistan

Flynn – articulated what a many had

appreciated.

Changes in

Intelligence

Processes

1. Move from need to know to responsibility to

provide

2. Integration of Collection and Analysis

3. Collaboration between Scientists, Analysts and

Operators to exploit applications. (J2 – J3 – J6)

4. Fusion and exploitation of multi intelligence.

(GEOINT Platform)

5. Commercial Impact. (process to problem

solving)

6. Exploitation of web based processes.

(NETWORKS)

7. Analysis synthesizing and exploiting big data.

(New Assurance Models)

Early Imagery Exploitation

OPEN CLASSIFIED

Corona

GEOSPATIAL INTELLIGENCE

Geospatial Intelligence consists of imagery, imagery intelligence, and geospatial

information.

The term "geospatial intelligence" means the exploitation and analysis of imagery

and geospatial information to describe, assess, and visually depict physical features

and geographically referenced activities on the earth.

GEOSPATIAL INTELLIGENCE

Director Leticia Long – GEOINT 2010

Imagery Exploitation Today

OPEN

Measure

Augmented Reality

Measure

Network Enabled

Commercial - Analysis

2,171 Ships in 9 minutes 01

seconds

Detection Rate: 241

Ships/Minute

13

Analysts Without BordersCommercial - Analysis

"We can witness in near real-time and put all parties on notice that

if they commit war crimes, we will all be watching, and pressuring

policymakers to take action.“

George Clooney

Decision Superiority Cycle

Observe

Orientate

Decide

Act

Knowledge

Data

UnderstandInformation

What is

Changing

What has

Changed

MEASURE

GEOINT

SIGINT MASINT

HUMINT

EVOLVING INTELLIGENCE MODEL

Multi Intelligence Fusion

• Joint Inter-Agency Task Force (JIATF)

• Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC)

• Joint Narcotics Analysis Centre (JNAC)

• Counter IED Defeat Organization (CIEDDO)

• Defence Intelligence Operations Coordination Centre (DIOCC)

• Defence Geospatial Intelligence Fusion Centre (DGIFC)

• Integrated Analytical Environment (NGA)

– Integrated Working Groups

OSINT OSINF

GEOINT

SIGINT MASINT

HUMINT

Information Assurance

Counter Intelligence

OPEN SOURCE – BIG DATA

• McKinsey

Big DataLarge Pools of data that can be

captured, communicated,

aggregated, stored and analyzed

“Big Data” refers to datasets whose

size is beyond the ability of typical software

tools to capture, store manage and analyze

Big Data Trends€ 250 Billion

Potential annual value to Europe’s

Public sector

60%

potential increase in retailers

operating margins

£600 Billion

potential annual

consumer surplus from using personal

location data globally

140 -190,000

More deep analytical

talent positions (US)

Integration/Aggregation

Problem Solving Teams

All Source

(Problem Solving)

Analyst

Information

(Data Mining)

Specialist

SUMMARY1. Move from need to know to responsibility

to provide.

2.Integration of Collection and Analysis

3.Collaboration between Scientists, Analysts

and Operators to exploit applications

4.Fusion and exploitation of multi intelligence.

(GEOINT Platform)

5.Commercial Impacts. (process to problem solving)

6.Exploitation of web based processes. (NETWORKS)

7.Analysis, synthesis and exploitation of big data.

(New Assurance Models)

INTEGRATION1. Complete (imperfect thing) by the

addition of parts into a whole.

2.Combination of diverse elements.

AGGREGATION

1.Collected into one body (unite)

2.Sum total assemblage