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2020NATIONAL PRE-COVID-19 ACCOMMODATION OUTLOOK

2 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer

CBRE HOTELS - CANADA

ECONOMIC & TRAVEL OUTLOOKS


NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

$1.96

$2.02

$2.05

$2.08

$2.12

$2.16

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

$1.85

$1.90

$1.95

$2.00

$2.05

$2.10

$2.15

$2.20

$2.25

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 P 2021 P

% C

HA

NG

E

Real GDP ($2012) % Change

Source: Statistics Canada, Conference Board of Canada, Canadian Outlook Autumn 2019, Scotiabank Group – Global Forecast Update January 2020, CIBC Economic Insights February 2020; RBC – Economic and Financial Market Outlook – February 2020

Source: CBRE Hotels


NATIONAL TRAVEL OUTLOOK

OVERNIGHT TRAVEL 2018 F 2019 P 2020 P

Business travel domestic 1.8% 2.1% 2.1%

Pleasure travel domestic 1.8% 1.9% 1.6%

Total domestic travel 1.6% 1.6% 1.5%

U.S. Travel 3.2% 2.5% 2.4%

Overseas travel 4.7% 4.8% 5.4%

TOTAL OVERNIGHT TRAVEL 1.6% 2.0% 1.8%

National Accommodation Demand Growth*Actual

2.1%* -0.1%* 1.7%

Source: Canadian Tourism Research Institute, Conference Board of Canada, Autumn 2018/Winter 2019Source: CBRE Hotels

NATIONAL MARKET &FINANCIAL OUTLOOK


2019 REGIONAL REVPAR GROWTH

WESTERN CANADA

-0.8%

CENTRAL CANADA

-0.8%

ATLANTIC CANADA

-1.2%


NATIONAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND OUTLOOK

1.1%1.5% 1.6%

2.1%

-0.1%

1.7%

2018 2019 2020 F 2018 2019 2020 F

Supply DemandSource: CBRE Hotels


NATIONAL ADR, REVPAR OUTLOOK

Source: CBRE Hotels

ADR GROWTH2018 Actual 4.5%

2019 Actual 0.8%

2020 Forecast 2.4%

RevPAR GROWTH2018 Actual 5.6%

2019 Actual -0.8%

2020 Forecast 2.5%

Demand GROWTH2018 Actual 2.1%

2019 Actual -0.1%

2020 Forecast 1.7%

2017 2018 2019 2020 F

Occupancy 66% 66% 65% 65%

ADR $155 $162 $164 $167

RevPAR $102 $107 $107 $109


NATIONAL BOTTOM LINE OUTLOOK

$15.8

$15.1$15.5

2018 2019F 2020P

Adjusted Net Operating Income/

Available Room ($000’s)

10.7%

-4.1%

2.8%

WESTERN CANADA MARKET &FINANCIAL OUTLOOK


WESTERN CANADA – GDP BY PROVINCE

1.3% 1.3%

1.6%

2.6%

1.3%

1.0%

0.5%

2.1%

1.1% 1.2%

1.6%

2.1%

MB SK AB BC

REAL

GD

P

2018 2019e 2020f

Source: Scotiabank Global Outlook, January 14, 2020


WESTERN CANADA – TRAVEL MARKET OUTLOOKS

1.9%

2.5%

1.9%

2.6%

1.6%

2.0% 2.0%

2.5%

1.4%1.6%

2.0%2.2%

MB SK AB BC

Tota

l Ove

rnig

ht P

rovi

nce

Visi

ts%

Gro

wth

2018e 2019f 2020f

Source: Conference Board of Canada Travel Outlooks, Autumn 2018/Winter 2019


2019 BRITISH COLUMBIA REVPAR GROWTH

VANCOUVER ISLAND

-0.3%VANCOUVER

+3.3%

WHISTLER

+0.6%

OTHER B.C.

+2.7%


BRITISH COLUMBIA 2020 ADR, REVPAR OUTLOOK

Source: CBRE Hotels


2019 Actual 2.1%

2020 Forecast 3.0%


2019 Actual 2.1%

2020 Forecast 3.2%


2019 Actual 0.7%

2020 Forecast 1.0%

2017 2018 2019 2020 P

Occupancy 70% 71% 71% 71%

ADR $173 $189 $193 $198

RevPAR $121 $134 $136 $141


$27.4$27.8

$28.9

2018 2019F 2020P

Adjusted Net Operating

Income/ Available Room ($000’s)

17.2%1.8%

3.8%

BRITISH COLUMBIA BOTTOM LINE OUTLOOK

Source: CBRE Hotels


BRITISH COLUMBIA MAJOR MARKET OUTLOOK 2020

Source: CBRE Hotels

BRITISH COLUMBIA

2017 2018 2019 2020 F

Occupancy 70% 71% 71% 71%

ADR $173 $189 $193 $198

RevPAR $121 $134 $136 $141

VANCOUVER 2017 2018 2019 2020 FOccupancy 79% 80% 80% 80%

ADR $191 $212 $219 $227

RevPAR $151 $170 $175 $181


2019 ALBERTA REVPAR GROWTH

CALGARY

-3.9%

ALBERTA RESORTS

+7.3%

EDMONTON

-7.4%

OTHER ALBERTA

-3.4%


ALBERTA 2020 ADR, REVPAR OUTLOOK (EXCL RESORTS)

Source: CBRE Hotels


2019 Actual -1.3%

2020 Forecast 2.0%


2019 Actual -4.4%

2020 Forecast 2.0%


2019 Actual -0.4%

2020 Forecast 2.0%

2017 2018 2019 2020 P

Occupancy 54% 56% 54% 54%

ADR $130 $131 $129 $132

RevPAR $70 $73 $70 $71


$11.2

$11.2

$11.3

2018 2019F 2020P



9.2%

-1.0%

1.1%

ALBERTA BOTTOM LINE OUTLOOK

Source: CBRE Hotels


ALBERTA 2017 2018 2019 2020F

Occupancy 54% 56% 54% 54%

ADR $130 $131 $129 $132

RevPAR $70 $73 $70 $71

CALGARY 2017 2018 2019 2020F

Occupancy 59% 63% 61% 61%

ADR $144 $146 $145 $148

RevPAR $85 $92 $88 $90

EDMONTON 2017 2018 2019 2020F

Occupancy 57% 59% 56% 55%

ADR $130 $129 $126 $129

RevPAR $74 $76 $70 $71

ALBERTA MAJOR MARKET OUTLOOK 2020

Source: CBRE Hotels


2019 SASKATCHEWAN REVPAR GROWTH

REGINA

-4.7%

SASKATOON

+0.6%

OTHER SASKATCHEWAN

-2.5%


SASKATCHEWAN MAJOR MARKETS OUTLOOK 2020

KEEP YOUR TABLE WITHIN THE GUIDES

Source: CBRE Hotels

SASKATCHEWAN 2017 2018 2019 2020P

Occupancy 54% 57% 56% 56%

ADR $119 $118 $119 $121

RevPAR $65 $67 $66 $67

SASKATOON 2017 2018 2019 2020P

Occupancy 60% 61% 61% 60%

ADR $125 $124 $125 $126

RevPAR $75 $75 $76 $76

REGINA 2017 2018 2019 2020P

Occupancy 56% 60% 57% 58%

ADR $121 $120 $120 $122

RevPAR $68 $72 $68 $70


2019 MANITOBA REVPAR GROWTH

WINNIPEG

-0.6%

BRANDON

-11.0%

OTHER MANITOBA

-4.3%


MANITOBA MAJOR MARKET OUTLOOK 2020

Source: CBRE Hotels

MANITOBA 2017 2018 2019 2020P

Occupancy 69% 69% 67% 67%

ADR $123 $125 $125 $128

RevPAR $85 $86 $84 $85

WINNIPEG 2017 2018 2019 2020P

Occupancy 71% 70% 70% 68%

ADR $126 $129 $128 $130

RevPAR $89 $90 $90 $89


2019 YUKON & NORTHWEST TERRITORIES REVPAR GROWTH

NORTHWEST TERRITORIES

-11.1%

YUKON

+2.4%

CENTRAL CANADA MARKET &FINANCIAL OUTLOOK


CENTRAL CANADA – GDP BY PROVINCE

2.5%

2.2%

2.5%

1.7%1.8%

1.5%

QC ON

REAL

GD

P

2018 2019e 2020fSource: Scotiabank Global Outlook, January 14, 2020


CENTRAL CANADA – TRAVEL MARKET OUTLOOK

1.8%

1.0%

1.8%1.9%

1.6%

2.0%

QC ON

Tota

l Ove

rnig

ht P

rovi

nce

Visi

ts%

Gro

wth

2018e 2019f 2020f



2019 QUEBEC REVPAR GROWTH

MONTREAL

+3.0%

GREATER QUEBEC CITY

+0.4%

OTHER QUEBEC

-4.1%


QUEBEC 2020 ADR, REVPAR OUTLOOK

Source: CBRE Hotels


2019 Actual 1.4%

2020 Forecast 2.5%


2019 Forecast 0.8%

2020 Forecast 3.7%


2019 Actual 0.6%

2020 Forecast 2.0%

2017 2018 2019 2020F

Occupancy 70% 69% 68% 69%

ADR $168 $173 $176 $180

RevPAR $118 $119 $120 $125


$13.6$13.4

$14.0

2018 2019F 2020P


Income/ Available Room ($000’s) 7.6%

-1.9%

4.8%

QUEBEC BOTTOM LINE OUTLOOK

Source: CBRE Hotels


QUEBEC MAJOR MARKET OUTLOOK 2020

Source: CBRE Hotels

QUEBEC 2017 2018 2019 2020F

Occupancy 70% 69% 68% 69%

ADR $168 $173 $176 $180

RevPAR $118 $119 $120 $125

MONTREAL 2017 2018 2019 2020F

Occupancy 75% 72% 73% 72%

ADR $175 $180 $183 $189

RevPAR $131 $129 $133 $137

QUEBEC CITY 2017 2018 2019 2020F

Occupancy 68% 69% 69% 70%

ADR $168 $177 $177 $181

RevPAR $114 $122 $122 $126


2019 ONTARIO REVPAR GROWTH

TORONTO

-1.6%SOUTHERN ONTARIO

-1.0%

OTTAWA

-4.4%

NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO

+3.1%

NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO

+3.4%

CENTRAL ONTARIO

-0.1%

NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO

+4.9%EASTERN ONTARIO

-1.2%


ONTARIO 2020 ADR, REVPAR OUTLOOK

Source: CBRE Hotels


2019 Actual 0.6%

2020 Projection 2.5%


2019 Actual -1.4%



2019 Actual -0.5%


2017 2018 2019 2020F

Occupancy 69% 70% 69% 69%

ADR $155 $162 $163 $167

RevPAR $107 $114 $112 $114


$17.1

$16.3$16.6

2018 2019F 2020P



9.6%

-5.1%

2.0%

ONTARIO BOTTOM LINE OUTLOOK

Source: CBRE Hotels


ONTARIO MAJOR MARKET OUTLOOK 2020

Source: CBRE Hotels

ONTARIO 2017 2018 2019 2020F

Occupancy 69% 70% 69% 69%

ADR $155 $162 $163 $167

RevPAR $107 $114 $112 $114

TORONTO 2017 2018 2019 2020F

Occupancy 76% 76% 75% 74%

ADR $172 $183 $184 $188

RevPAR $130 $139 $137 $139


ONTARIO MAJOR MARKET OUTLOOK 2020

Source: CBRE Hotels

NIAGARA FALLS 2017 2018 2019 2020F

Occupancy 68% 67% 67% 67%

ADR $161 $167 $168 $173

RevPAR $109 $112 $112 $115

OTTAWA 2017 2018 2019 2020F

Occupancy 75% 74% 71% 71%

ADR $172 $169 $167 $170

RevPAR $128 $124 $119 $120

ATLANTIC CANADA MARKET &FINANCIAL OUTLOOK


ATLANTIC CANADA – GDP BY PROVINCE

Source: Scotiabank Global Outlook, January 14, 2020

-3.5%

2.6%

1.5%0.8%

2.1%2.7%

1.7%

0.6%1.1%

2.0%1.3%

0.7%

NL PE NS NB

REAL

GD

P

2018 2019e 2020f


ATLANTIC CANADA – TRAVEL MARKET OUTLOOKS


-0.8%

0.3%0.9%

1.5%

2.0%

2.8%

1.7%1.4%

1.0%

1.8%

1.4% 1.3%

NL PE NS NB

Tota

l Ove

rnig

ht P

rovi

nce

Visi

ts%

Gro

wth

2018e 2019f 2020f


2019 ATLANTIC CANADA REVPAR GROWTH

St. John’s

-1.3%

Charlottetown

+1.2%

Halifax

-2.2%Moncton

0.5%


ATLANTIC CANADA 2020 ADR, REVPAR OUTLOOK

Source: CBRE Hotels


2019 Actual -1.0%

2020 Forecast 1.9%

RevPAR GROWTH2018 Actual -0.1%

2019 Actual -1.2%

2020 Forecast 1.9%

Demand GROWTH2018 Actual -0.5%

2019 Actual 1.1%

2020 Forecast 2.3%

2017 2018 2019 2020F

Occupancy 63% 61% 61% 61%

ADR $135 $140 $138 $141

RevPAR $86 $86 $85 $86


$10.1

$9.3 $9.4

2018 2019F 2020P



-1.6%

-7.4% 0.7%

ATLANTIC CANADA BOTTOM LINE OUTLOOK

Source: CBRE Hotels


ATLANTIC CANADA MAJOR MARKET OUTLOOK 2020


Source: CBRE Hotels

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR

2017 2018 2019 2020F

Occupancy 62% 53% 56% 55%

ADR $145 $140 $132 $135

RevPAR $91 $75 $73 $75

ST. JOHN’S 2017 2018 2019 2020F

Occupancy 63% 53% 56% 56%

ADR $149 $142 $133 $136

RevPAR $93 $75 $74 $75




Source: CBRE Hotels

NOVA SCOTIA 2017 2018 2019 2020F

Occupancy 67% 67% 66% 66%

ADR $141 $149 $146 $149

RevPAR $95 $99 $97 $98

HALIFAX 2017 2018 2019 2020F

Occupancy 72% 70% 70% 68%

ADR $149 $158 $155 $158

RevPAR $107 $111 $108 $107




Source: CBRE Hotels

PEI 2017 2018 2019 2020F

Occupancy 58% 57% 58% 58%

ADR $145 $152 $155 $157

RevPAR $84 $87 $90 $91

NEW BRUNSWICK 2017 2018 2019 2020F

Occupancy 61% 61% 60% 60%

ADR $121 $125 $129 $131

RevPAR $74 $76 $77 $78

MAJOR MARKET OUTLOOKS


MAJOR MARKET OUTLOOKS REVPAR PROJECTION 2020

*”Major Markets” refer to Greater Metro AreasSource: CBRE Hotels

2020 RevPAR Ranking Vancouver $181

Toronto $139

Montreal $137

Quebec City $126

Ottawa $120

Niagara Falls $115

Halifax $107

Calgary $90

Winnipeg $89

Saskatoon $76

Edmonton $71

St. John’s $75

Regina $70

-5.0%-3.0%-1.0%1.0%3.0%5.0%7.0%9.0%

Vanc

ouve

r

Que

bec

City

Regi

na

Nia

gara

Fal

ls

Mon

tréal

Cal

gary

St. J

ohn'

s

Toro

nto

Edm

onto

n

Otta

wa

Sask

atoo

n

Win

nipe

g

Hal

ifax

> 4% RevPAR Growth

0%-3% RevPAR Growth

RevPARDecline

NATIONAL FINANCIAL OUTLOOKS


NATIONAL FINANCIAL OUTLOOK

NOTE: Adjusted Net Operating Income is defined as income after property taxes, insurance, management fees, franchise fees, and capital reserves; but before rent, interest, income taxes, depreciation and amortization. Source: CBRE Hotels

$23.

3

$10.

3

$15.

6

$12.

6

$27.

4

$11.

2

$17.

1

$13.

6

$27.

8

$11.

1

$16.

2

$13.

3

$28.

9

$11.

3

$16.

6

$14.

0

B.C. Alberta Ontario Quebec

Adj

uste

d N

et O

pera

ting

Inco

me

Per

Ava

ilabl

e Ro

om ($

000’

s)

2017 2018 2019F 2020P

Valuation & Advisory ServicesDavid LaroneBrian StanfordFran Hohol

BrokerageMark SparrowLuke ScheerGreg Kwong Ryan TranNick TkachAliya Kurbanova

David FergusonRebecca GodfreyKirstin HallettNicole NguyenCailin Sully-DanielsScott ForlerCarol LopesHildegard SnelgroveJamie Mills


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