cbre 2011 hotel investment strategy what every developer should know vn
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2011 Chin lc u t Khch sn: Mi nh u t nn bit nhng gMi nh u t nn bit nhng g
Thuyt trnh bi:
Khch sn New World, 27/09/2011
Thuyt trnh bi:
Robert McIntosh, Gim c iu hnh, CBRE Hotels,
Chu Thi Bnh Dng
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TM TT
Hot ng khch sn
u t khch sn trong khu vc
u t khch sn qua cc phn khc bt ng sn
Qu tn thc bt ng sn khch sn (Hotel REITs)Qu tn thc bt ng sn khch sn (Hotel REITs)
Bn v Cho thu li
Tiu chun Qun l v Thng hiu
CB Richard Ellis | Page 2
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Tnh hnh hot ng khch sn
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Hot ng khch sn trong khu vc (Upper-Upscale-Luxury)
250
Average Daily Rate (MAT)
200
150
100
50
0Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11
Vietnam Singapore Kuala Lumpur
CB Richard Ellis | Page 4
Vietnam Singapore Kuala LumpurJakarta Bangkok ManilaHong Kong SAR
Source: STR Global/CBRE Hotels
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Hot ng khch sn trong khu vc (Upper-Upscale-Luxury)
90%
Occupancy (MAT)
80%
85%
70%
75%
60%
65%
55%
60%
50%Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11
Vietnam Singapore Kuala Lumpur
CB Richard Ellis | Page 5
Vietnam Singapore Kuala LumpurJakarta Bangkok ManilaHong Kong SAR
Source: STR Global/CBRE Hotels
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Hot ng khch sn trong khu vc (Upper-Upscale-Luxury)
160
RevPAR (MAT) Indexed Local Currency
140
100
120
80
60
40Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11
Vi t Si K l L J k t
CB Richard Ellis | Page 6
Vietnam Singapore Kuala Lumpur Jakarta
Bangkok Manila Hong Kong SAR
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Nhu cu ti th trng Tp. H Ch Minh
8,000
9,000
6 000
7,000
8,000
r
s
(
'
0
0
0
)
4 000
5,000
6,000
u
m
b
e
r
o
f
v
i
s
i
t
o
r
2 000
3,000
4,000
N
0
1,000
2,000
02004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
International visitors to HCMC ('000) Domestic visitors to HCMC ('000)
CB Richard Ellis | Page 7
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Ngun cung khch sn thi trng Tp. H Ch Minh
5,000
4,000
t
e
l
r
o
o
m
s
2 000
3,000
N
u
m
b
e
r
o
f
h
o
t
1,000
2,000
02000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 F2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-F
5 star 4 star 3 star
CB Richard Ellis | Page 8
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Ngun cung khch sn 5 sao v Cng sut phng - HCMC5 star
70%
75%5,000
5 star
60%
65%4,000
t
e
l
r
o
o
m
s
50%
55%3,000
N
u
m
b
e
r
o
f
h
o
t
40%
45%
1 000
2,000
30%
35%
40%
0
1,000
30%02000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-F
Supply Occupancy
CB Richard Ellis | Page 9
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Ngun cung khch sn 4 sao v Cng sut phng - HCMC
90%3,000
4 star
70%
80%
2,000
e
l
r
o
o
m
s
60%
70%2,000
N
u
m
b
e
r
o
f
h
o
t
e
50%1,000
30%
40%
02000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-F
Supply Occupancy
CB Richard Ellis | Page 10
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Ngun cung khch sn 3 sao v Cng sut phng - HCMC3 star
90%5,000
3 star
70%
80%4,000
o
t
e
l
r
o
o
m
s
60%
2 000
3,000
N
u
m
b
e
r
o
f
h
o
40%
50%
1,000
2,000
30%
40%
02000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 F2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-F
Supply Occupancy
CB Richard Ellis | Page 11
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D on ngun cung th trng Tp. H Ch Minh
7,000
5,000
6,000
r
o
o
m
s
4,000
N
u
m
b
e
r
o
f
h
o
t
e
l
2,000
3,000N
0
1,000
02000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-F 2012 2013
5 star 4 star 3 star
CB Richard Ellis | Page 12
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Mi trng u t khch sn
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Gi tr khch sn chuyn nhng (Chu Thi Bnh Dng)Hotel sales volume (US$ Billions)
$1.8
$2.0
Hotel sales volume (US$ Billions)
$1 4
$1.6
$1.2
$1.4
$0.8
$1.0
$0.4
$0.6
$0.0
$0.2
CB Richard Ellis | Page 14
08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2Source : RCA
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Cc nh u t hin ang u t vo th trng no?
Not Applicable
Cambodia
Macauu t hin nay ti cc th
trng Chu
Vietnam
Philipines
pp
Hong Kong
Japan
Malaysia
India
Indonesia
Australia & New Zealand
Tier 1 Chinese cities
Tier 2 Chinese cities
Thailand
Singapore
CB Richard Ellis | Page 15
Source Terrapinn, Hospitality Real Estate Investment survey 2011
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
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Cc nh u t s hi iu g?
Nhn t ri ro ln nht i vi th trng
Tr ngi v mt php l
Nhn t ri ro ln nht i vi th trngngh dng Chu trong 12-18 thng ti
Khng b
Chi ph ti chnh cao
Ri ro tin t
g
Bt n kinh t
Lm pht
Bt n chnh tr
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Bong bng bt ng sn
CB Richard Ellis | Page 16
Source Terrapinn, Hospitality Real Estate Investment survey 2011
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Cc nh u t d tnh s u t vo th trng no?
Future investment in the following Asian markets
Australia & New Zealand
Cambodia
Macauu t tng lai ti cc th
trng Chu
Tier 1 Chinese cities
Japan
Australia & New Zealand
Malaysia
Thailand
I d i
Tier 2 Chinese cities
Hong Kong
Philipines
India
Indonesia
Vietnam
Singapore
p
CB Richard Ellis | Page 17
Source Terrapinn, Hospitality Real Estate Investment survey 2011
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
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u l th trng tim nng?
Luxury resorts
Themed/concept hotels
Boutique resorts
Tng trng tim nng khu vc Chu trong12-18 thng ti
Integrated resorts
Themed/concept resorts
Luxury resorts
Boutique serviced apartments
Beach resorts
L i d
Recreation resorts
Family-oriented serviced apartments
Full-service hotels
Boutique hotels
Luxury serviced apartments
Economy hotels
Budget hotels
CB Richard Ellis | Page 18
Source Terrapinn, Hospitality Real Estate Investment survey 2011
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
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Ti sn khch sn trong Danh mc du t a dng
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Cc c im ca u t khch sn
Ri ro/khng n nhAn ton ca thu nhpu t vo kinh doanh ch khng ch l mt dng btu t vo kinh doanh ch khng ch l mt dng btng sn Ph thuc vo vic qun lPh thuc vo vic qun lKhch hng a dngCc nhn t bn ngoiCng sut phng v gi phngCng sut phng v gi phngnh hng ca cc thay i trong thu nhp
CB Richard Ellis | Page 20
Chu k khc nhau i vi phn ti sn cn li
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Th trng Australia
CB Richard Ellis | Page 21
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Ti sn khch sn Nhng iu cn lu
Th ic trng ca bt ng sn c trng ca phn khc
Thng mi
V tr Li nhun doanh nghip
Cht lng ta nh To vic lm
Cc chi ph bo tr
Thi hn thu v cht lng ca khchthuthu
h h h i
c trng ca bt ng sn c trng ca phn khc
Khch sn nh trn, cng vi
c trng ca bt ng sn c trng ca phn khcThng hiu C s h tng
Ngun khch hng Ngun nhn lc
CB Richard Ellis | Page 22
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T l li nhun ca khch sn qua cc phn khc bt ng sn
(Australia)
CB Richard Ellis | Page 23
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Cc qu tn thc bt ng sn khch sn
Mt nht thi hay u t di hn?
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Qu tn thc bt ng sn - REIT Mt tp on hoc qu u t s dng ngun vn gp t nhiu nh u Mt tp on hoc qu u t s dng ngun vn gp t nhiu nh u
t mua li v qun l thu nhp REITs c giao dch trn cc th trng chng khon ln nh c g g g
phiu c u i v thu REITs mang n nhiu li ch thng qua vic s hu bt ng sn
u tin, chng mang tnh thanh khon cao, khng ging cc bt ng sn truyn thng no
Th hai, REITs cho php chia s cc bt ng sn phi dn c, nhkhch sn trung tm mua sm v cc bt ng sn thng mi vkhch sn, trung tm mua sm v cc bt ng sn thng mi vcng nghip khc
Th ba, khng gii hn s vn u t i vi REITsTh ba, khng gii hn s vn u t i vi REITs Php l Nht Bn, Singapore, Hong Kong, Hn Quc, i Loan,
Thi Lan v Malaysia
CB Richard Ellis | Page 25
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REITs Chu
CB Richard Ellis | Page 26
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Cc qu tn thc bt ng sn khch sn Hotel REITs
S lng Cc xut mi Cc nguyn nhn Cc nguyn nhn Cc cu trc cho thu Pht trin H thng H thng Qun l Cc chi ph thnh lp Th ch ha u t
CB Richard Ellis | Page 27
Th ch ha u t
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REITs
CB Richard Ellis | Page 28
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BN v CHO THU LI
Cc chin lc exit
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BN v CHO THU LI
Bn ti sn nhng gi li quyn s dng thng qua mt hp ngcho thuc o t u
Khon tin thu l c nh hoc c nh + khon tin thu binii
Gii phng vn cho cc nh u tp g Cung cp cho nh u t dng thu nhp n nh hn Cn hiu c cc ri ro
Ph bin mt s nc Chu u v Nht Bn
CB Richard Ellis | Page 30
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BN v CHO THU LI
Hp ng cho thu khch sn Mt s im tho lun
Cu trc gi thug iu khon thu Cc la chn gia hn thu FF&E Chi ph vn Bo dng hng ngyBo dng hng ngy t cc Bo him
Chuyn nhng Kim ton Ht hn hp ng Ht hn hp ng
CB Richard Ellis | Page 31
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n v qun l khch sn v Thit k
Mt s vn
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Lm th no la chn mt n v qun l
Mt n v qun l quc t c th l mt li th nhng cn phi cn nhck trong khi:
Trc khi khai trng
La chn n v qun l La chn thng hiu Cc iu khon thng mi (MOU) Hp ng qun lSau khi khai trng
Ph duyt ngn sch hng nm Xem xt ngn sch hng thng
Cc sai st trong qu trnh la chn c th s tn km v sau cho cc nh
CB Richard Ellis | Page 33
u t
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Ch u t mong mun iu g?
Ch u t n v iu hnh
n v iu hnh-i tc Ch n v iu hnh
Ti a ha t l hon vn Gi cc tiu chun
Thit k ca ch u t Thit k ca n v iu hnh
Ch u t kim sot hon ton n v qun l kim sot hon ton
Thng hiu linh hot (chi ph thp hn) Thng hiu khng linh hot
Ch u t kim sot hon ton n v qun l kim sot hon ton
Ch u t kim sot mua bn n v iu hnh kim sot mua bn
Thng hiu linh hot (chi ph thp hn) Thng hiu khng linh hot
Hp ng ngn hn (5-10 nm) Hp ng di hn (30-50)
Quyn chm dt Khng chm dt
CB Richard Ellis | Page 34
Quyn chm dt Khng chm dt
Tiu chun gii hn Theo nhiu tiu chun
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Tiu chun thng hiu
Kim sot thng hiu hot ng nh th no?
Ph duyt quy
Hon thnh Thit
Xy dng Tin khai trng Khai trng
y gGiai on xy dng
hoch/Thit k k/Tin xy dngXy dng Tin khai trng Khai trng
q p p g Nhn s ca n v qun l can thip vo - Hp ng h tr k thut
InputfromBusiness
OperatorProjectManager
(headquarter),Designreview,
focusing on :VPOperation:
GM hiring VP O iP h iDeveloperGeneralSuggestions
focusingon:
Roomsize
Circulations
Reception
GMhiring
StafftrainingVPOperation
BrandstandardControl
VPOperation(inspections)
SafetyRegulation..
PurchasingDepartment(inspections)
HotelEquipment
Furniture Facilities
Landscaping
Parking
Furniture
CB Richard Ellis | Page 35
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Tiu chun thit k v thng hiu
Trng hp c th: Ibis, Accor Hospitality
Loi phng: Twin / King 17 sqmTi hi h b Tin nghi trong phng bao gm:
H thng iu ha ring T lnh
Kt st an ton Kt st an ton ng h/Radio ISD/STD telephone and voicemail Tin nghi tr/cafe
CB Richard Ellis | Page 36
g Ti vi
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TI A HA LI NHUN
Mt vi vn
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TI A HA LI NHUN
Bn c bit nhiu nh cc n v qun l? Nu mt thng hiu quc t i km cc tiu chun ng tin hnh trong vi vng tp trung vo $$$ Suy ngh v tng lai khng phi qu kh Li nhun n t u? Cc ngun thu nhp khc cc ri ro v tnh tng thchg p g
Bn l Spa
S b Sng bc Thc n v ung NightclubNightclub Kim sot cc chi ph Thng hiu ph hp vi bt ng sn
CB Richard Ellis | Page 38
Thng hiu ph hp vi bt ng sn
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Dch v T vn Khch sn CBRE Vietnam
Mi gii
La chn n v iu hnh
Tm kim n v iu hnh
m phn hp ng qun lm phn hp ng qun l
T vn u t
Thm nh gi
T vn pht trin
Nghin cu th trng
CB Richard Ellis | Page 39
Nghin cu th trng
-
TM TT
Hot ng khch sn g
u t khch sn trong khu vc
u t khch sn qua cc phn khc bt ng sn khc
Qu tn thc bt ng sn khch sn
Bn v Cho thu li
Ti h l th hiTiu chun qun l v thng hiu
CB Richard Ellis | Page 40
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Chn thnh cm n qu v
CHI TIT LIN HMauro Gasparotti
Hotel Services - CBRE Vietnam
M 84 903 028 722
Robert McIntosh
Executive Director - CBRE Hotels Asia Pacific
Duong Thuy Dung
Research & Consultancy - CBRE Vietnam
M 84 913 381 118
CB Richard Ellis | Page 41
M 84 903 028 722
Email: [email protected]
2010 CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd.
M 65 8123 0208
Email: [email protected]
M 84 913 381 118
Email: [email protected]