causes of economic (business) cycles
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8/17/2019 Causes of Economic (Business) Cycles
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5.2 CAUSES OF ECONOMIC (BUSINESS) CYCLESMONETARY CAUSES (ENDOGENOUS)
• At the end of a recession phase, the growth in money supply is low.
• The demand for credit is weak and interest rates are low.
• Banks make their profit by lending out money.
• Interest rates are lowered to increase assets (loans) so the money supply
increases.
• With increased economic actiity, money is borrowed but as interest rates
increase, indiiduals borrow more money before a further increase in interestrates can occur.
• Interest rates become so high that people! businesses begin to e"perience debt
problems.#
• This leads to bankruptcy which in turn leads to a decrease in production, income
and e"penditure.
• Turning point in the cycle is reached as the demand for credit, money creationand money supply decrease.
• $eople%s standards of liing declines and people struggle for surial by
becoming part of the informal sector.
REAL CAUSES (ENDOGENOUS)&auses related to
• 'esign of new profitable production processes
• 'iscoery and implementation of new technology and machinery
• &reation and e"ploitation of new markets
•
'iscoery of new resources• pswing phase starts when there is an upswing in the economies of trading
partners.
• They spend more, import more and can e"port more.
• "port enterprises can produce more, employ more factors of production.
• Increased production needs more intermediate products so production,
employment and inestment increase.
• Increased employment results in higher income and consumption and all sectors
e"pand.
• *ew factories start to produce.
•Increased supply.
• All goods are not sold resulting in bankruptcy.
• Increased unemployment follows.
• 'ecline in production and inestment.
EXOGENOUS CAUSESConsumer n! In"es#or Con$%!en&e
• As people are pessimistic at the beginning of an upswing phase, they don%t
borrow, inest or spend and this dampens reial.
• +ptimism now oercomes pessimism this leads to an oerestimation of ability
and demand for products increase.• Borrow too much money, produce and consume too much.
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• ndertakings get into financial difficulty.
• When this the downturn starts.
• As people become pessimistic again, this lengthens and deepens the recession.
• N#ur' !%ss#ers e.. oil platforms in gulf r* S#o&+ mr+e# &rs,
Ne- E&onom%& r!%m
• Traditional monetarists belieed that goernment should not interene and that -
only created shocks to the cycle e.g. boom and bus
• eynes promoted fine tuning of economy by -
• aimed at smoothing business cycles to preent the boom / bust cycle
• Anti0cyclical monetary policy is used
• 1mall increases in r#es before the economy oerheats help to preent ery high
peaks
• 2.34 5 0 6uarter 5 point / 34 basis points is used rather than 7 or 3 5
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/. FEATURES UNDERINNING FORECASTINGo Leading indicators: where the economy is headed and occur before the
peak or trough e.g. increase in business start0ups, new business carsales, share prices, residential building plans
o Lagging indicators: e"plain where the economy has been. They occur
after a peak or trough e.g. increased inestment, hours spent inconstruction,
o Coincident: occur at the same time e.g. retail sales, real -'$ increase
o sing known alues to predict a trend (or the future) is called
extrapolation
o +ne method of e"trapolation is using moving averages
o We use uneen number of years e.g. #, 4 or 8 year moing aerage
o Add up the data for #, 4 or 8 years and diide by the number of years
Yer Nom%n'GD 0er &0%#(R)
Re'GD 0er &0%#(R)
79:8 ;:7 79999
79:< ;<: 32384
79:9 4## 32::2
7982 4:9 377:2
7987 :7; 374#4
7983 :8: 37#:4
798# <7: 37<2<
798; 9<7 33:73
7984 7289 33;<3
798: 7797 33;87
7988 7393 37979798< 7;42 332#3
7989 7:9# 33#;8
79<2 3324 3#39<
79<7 3;9; 3#987
79<3 38:: 3###4
79<# #29; 33#<8
79<; #4;4 3#22:
79<4 ;223 333#3
79<: ;4<# 3784#
79<8 43;; 378#9
79<< :7:; 337<#
79<9 83;8 333;7
7992 <783 37872
7997 97:< 372;47993 722:8 32782
799# 773<: 7999:
799; 7342; 32374
7994 7#932 32;73
799: 74#:< 32<;9
7998 7::99 3294:
799< 7882; 32:3:
7999 7<999 32:8#
3222 37729 37729
3227 33<94 373:4
3223 34:;; 37498
322# 3827: 3788;
322; 39723 337;9