Ron Plain

April 22, 2015

Cattle Outlook (title)

Retail Choice Beef Prices, Monthly

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700

2000

2001

2002

2003

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2014

2015

Cents per Pound

Source: USDA/ERS

10 monthly records in 2014

U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

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230

240

25019

45

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

f

Pounds

Source: USDA/ERS

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Million Head

2014: 33.9 million head, up 0.5%

First increase since 1995

Source: USDA/NASS

U. S. Calf Crop, 1945-2014

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Percent

Imports Exports

U.S. Beef Imports & Exports as % of U.S. Production, monthly

Source: USDA/ERS

Dollar Exchange Rate

USDA expects 2015 meat exports to be down 6% and meat imports to be up 4% compared to 2014.

C-S-0804/17/15

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

Livestock Marketing Information Center

2014 cattle slaughter was down 6.9%2015 year-to-date is down 6.0%

C-S-1804/17/15

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

Livestock Marketing Information Center

2014 steer dressed weight was up 1.0%2015 year-to-date weight is up 1.6%

C-S-1404/17/15

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

Livestock Marketing Information Center

2014 cow slaughter was down 13.8%2015 year-to-date is down 5.9%

C-S-1304/17/15

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

Livestock Marketing Information Center

2014 heifer slaughter was down 7.9%2015 year-to-date is down 5.9%

Large U.S. Feedlots, Monthly

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Mil. Head

2012

2013

2014

2015

Mar 1 cattle on feed: down 0.5%

Cattle on Feed

04/13/15

Data Source: USDA-AMS

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Choice Steer Breakeven PriceS. Plains Cattle Feedlots, Monthly

75

95

115

135

155

175

195

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

$ Per Cwt.

Breakeven Projected Breakeven

Source: LMIC

Cost of Gain is roughly $73/cwt.

U.S. Commercial Beef ProductionMillion Pounds

*forecast

2013 2014 2015

Qtr 1 6,172 5,868 5,660

Qtr 2 6,516 6,183 6,240*

Qtr 3 6,609 6,178 6,210*

Qtr 4 6,423 6,023 6,100*

Year 25,720 24,252 24,210*

----- % Change -----

2013-14 2014-15.

- 4.9% - 3.5%.

- 5.1% +0.9%.

- 6.4% +0.5%.

- 6.2% +1.3%.

- 5.7% - 0.2%

5 Area Slaughter Steer PricesChoice Steers Per Live Hundredweight

2012 2013 2014 2015

Qtr 1 $125.29 $125.52 $146.34 $162.43

Qtr 2 $121.91 $124.95 $147.82 $162-168*

Qtr 3 $119.69 $122.30 $158.49 $157-169*

Qtr 4 $125.54 $130.77 $165.60 $157-171*

Year $122.86 $125.89 $154.56 $160-167*

*forecast

Nebraska Slaughter Steer Price,Monthly Average 2000-2015

60

80

100

120

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160

180

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Jan

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Jan

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Jan

16

Dollars per Cwt.

Cash Futures

OKC 750-800# Feeder Steer Price,Monthly Average 2000-2015

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

Jan

00

Jan

01

Jan

02

Jan

03

Jan

04

Jan

05

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Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

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Jan

13

Jan

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Jan

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Jan

16

Dollars per Cwt.

Cash Futures

Estimated Average Cow Calf ReturnsReturns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

$ Per Cow

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC