case study nile basin

8/9/2019 Case Study Nile Basin

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hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH


Case study Nile basin:Needs Assessment for and Conceptual Design

of the Nile Basin Decision Support System

DI Gerald EDERBurundi, D.R. Congo, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya,Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda


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Project period: July 2007 - May 2008

Client: United Nations Operation and Programme Service;

in support of the Nile Basin Initiative (partnership of all Nile countries)

financed by the World Bank

Objective:

1. Stakeholder consultations in all riparian countries (situation assessment)

2. Identification of requirements for a Nile Basin DSS

3. Development of technical design of DSS tailored to the needs of the Nile

Basin; prepare Terms of Reference ready for implementation

Nile

Needs Assessment for and Conceptual Design of

the Nile Basin Decision Support System

(project title)


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CountriesBurundi

D.R. Congo

Egypt

EritreaEthiopia

Kenya

Rwanda

Sudan

Tanzania

Uganda

BackgroundNile


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Challenges

(Water) stressed system

DroughtFlood riskEnvironmental degradationPoor coverage of water

supply and sanitationFood insecurityPower shortage

Untapped potential for energyand food productionPolitical will for cooperationInternational support

Opportunities

NileBackground


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Situation assessment (i.e.) in the basin based on national and sub-

regional stakeholder consultations

9 national consultation workshops (in 9 countries)

2 sub-regional consultation workshops (in Kigali for NEL-region and Addis Ababa for EN-region)

Availability and quality of relevant data

Training & awareness raising workshops on IWRM & DecisionSupport Systems Application

9 national training & awareness raising workshops (in 9 countries)

2 sub-regional consultation workshops (in Kigali for NEL-region and Addis Ababa

for EN-region)

What is a DSS?

Development of the Nile-Information System ("Nile IS")

Web-based knowledge and information management system

NileProject objective 1:

Situation assessment


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Some of these sub-basins obviouslycontribute more than others

It is also interesting to note how

much water is lost to evaporation

in the Sudd wetlands

and how much is provided by the

Blue Nile

NileSituationassessment


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In an average year the basin receives some 650 mm

of rainfall corresponding to around 1,900 bcm of

water per year.

Long-term mean annual flow at Aswan is only about85 bcm per year, making the annual runoff coefficient

of the basin around 4.5%.

Runoff coefficient of 4.5% is small (e.g. just 10% of

that of the Rhine).This is explained by the fact

that a significant portion of the basin comprises arid

and hyper-arid zones that are large in surface area

yet contribute only negligibly to basin runoff. Added to this are the evaporation losses from major

swamp areas which cause up to 30% of the basins

rainfall to be lost before being used for any purpose.



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In general terms the northern ca.1/3 of the basin,

effectively receives negligible rainfall(with the exception of the small coastal margins of the Main

Nile)

The very eastern margins of the basin has thepossibility of rainfall throughout the year

The remainder of the basin (ca. 2/3) receives rainfall on

a seasonal basis

Seasonal Rainfall Coverage

JAN FEB MAR

APR MAY JUN

JUL AUG SEP

OCT NOV DEC



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It is estimated that although only Egypt

faces physical water scarcity in the

short to medium future (i.e. to 2025)BUT ALL the other riparian countries

face or will face economic scarcity.

Given the economic predominance of

agriculture it is interesting to consider

water availability in terms of the annual

growing season



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NileSituation

assessment


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Demographic developments

2.82.0

2.23.22.22.0

1.83.02.9

9010

79803739

95755

8863

608059

83

586890

11140

123455668

7623265

241945

2,50526

5801,104

1,0012,34427,8

2738399

3275

77547

UgandaTanzania

SudanRwandaKenyaEthiopia

EgyptDR CongoBurundi

Populationgrowth

(%)

Populationin

Nile Basin(%)

Populationin

rural area(%)

Populationdensity

Surfacearea

PopulationCountry



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Public administrationorganizationstructure

Districts and municipalities-Central StateUganda

Districts and municipalities26 Regions2 GovernmentsUnion StateTanzania

Districts and municipalitiesProvinces25 StatesFederal StateSudan

DistrictsProvincesCentral StateRwanda

Districts and municipalitiesProvincesCentral StateKenya

Districts (Woheda)(Zonal Offices)9 Regional states and 2autonomous cityadministrations

Federal StateEthiopia

Districts and municipalities27 governoratesCentral StateEgypt

Districts11 provincesincluding Kinshasa

Central StateDR Congo

Districts17 provinces and 1city administration

Central StateBurundi

Local governmentRegionalgovernmentState governmentsCentralgovernmentMembers



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Socio-economiccharacteristics

8752?31078Uganda*

92625.628079Tanzania

7864851957Sudan

6461?

25090Ruanda

87316.251280-90Kenya

81117.143081Ethiopia*

96946.9430042Egypt

8926?69770-75DR Congo

9661?11080-90Burundi

Domestic watersupply coverage -

urban

Domesticwater supplycoverage -

rural

% Economicgrowth

GDP percapita(US$)

% inagricultural

sector

Members

Source FAO Aquastat 2005 except for Rwanda: Enquente Intgre sue les Conditions des Vies des mnages (EICV 1 and 2)



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% of hydropower produced by riparian states

After completions Merowe plant 2010

Three new plants (2000 MW) under construction% Declined due to sharp increase of demand

30%

96%15%

95%

UgandaTanzania

SudanRwandaKenyaEthiopiaEgyptDR Congo

Burundi

RemarksProportionfrom

hydropower

Country



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Key Environmental Issues

Wetlands, lake degradation and biodiversity loss

Water quality degradationSedimentation

Sea water intrusion

Floods and droughts

Transboundary environmental issues

Physical or chemical impact across national boundaries downstream

Degradation of wetlands and lakes

Need for transboundary cooperation to protect key habitats

Lack of early warning systems

Spread of exotic and invasive water weeds



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Second round of national and sub-regional stakeholder

consultations in all riparian countries

9 national consultation workshops (in 9 countries)

2 sub-regional consultation workshops (in Kigali for NEL-region

and Addis Ababa for EN-region)

Comprehensive assessment of specific needs (concerns) and

DSS requirements

Assessment of associated human capacity issues

NileProject objective 2:Identification of requirements for a Nile Basin DSS(concerns)


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Stakeholders identificationand selection

Definition Stakeholder

A person or a group with a direct interest, involvement orinvestment in an initiative, project or enterprise.

What is a stake in water management?

Different classification categories of stakeholders can be appliedfor specific purposes.

Direct stakeholders to water, like water users or people with no

access to safe water, vs. indirect stakeholders like government

officials in a water resource management function

Public, private and voluntary sector organizations

National, sub-national and supra-national stakeholders

Nile


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Stakeholder categories for Nile DSS project

Organizations that take decisionsInstitutions that for the water management and socio-economicdevelopment mandates prepare and take rational and scientificdecisions

Knowledge development partner organizationsInstitutions that can contribute to the development of the knowledgebase and simulating the effects and impact of human interventions inthe river basin or its sub systems

Interested organizationsInstitutions that through their societal functions and involvements in thewater sector have an interest to be informed about forthcominginvestments and water allocation decisions

Data supplying organizationsInstitutions that collect and process climatic, biophysical, hydrometric,spatial and socio-economic data needed for the operation of simulationmodels

Nile


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Concerns

Nile


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Nile


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For Society

water supply and sanitation clearly emerges as the

most pressing issue

Nile


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For Economy

irrigation and

increased energy demand dominates the issues

Nile


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For Natural Resources

wetland degradation,

watershed degradation and

soil/bank erosion are equally important

Nile


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Preparation of DSS design specifications of the river basin

planning model

incl. a suite of analytic tools to support multi-objective analysis ofinvestment alternatives

Development of a detailed DSS development plan

incl. training and procurement plans

NileProject objective 3:

Development of technical design of DSS tailored tothe needs of the Nile Basin; prepare Terms of

Reference ready for implementation


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What is a DSS?DSS definition:

A Decision Support System is a

computer based problem solving system

that can

assist non-trivial choice

between alternatives incomplex and controversial domains.

Nile


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Multiple conflicting objectives of competing institutions and stakeholders

Multiple criteria

of competing different sectors

Differing rationalities

Lack of accurate data and lack of availability

Uncertainties

Non-trivial choice:

Nile


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economic criteria (costs, benefits)

environmental criteria

social criteria

standards (measurements)

perceptions (believes, fears)

political criteria (e.g., equity, security)

regulatory criteria (constraints)

technological criteria (constraints)

Complex and controversial domains multiple criteria:

Nile

Nil


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A DSS is a computer-based system designed to assist the

process of participatory decision-making.A DSS can assist in:

Defining the Problems and their objectives (using the

knowledge base / information system)Choosing an Alternative between possible actions for

solving complex, non-trivial problems

Making a judgment upon well formulated evaluation

Criteria for the decision-making

What is a DSS?(2)

Nile

Nil


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A DSS is a common computer-based platform for communication,

information management and analysis of water resources.

It provides a framework for sharing knowledge, understanding

river system behavior, evaluating alternative development andmanagement strategies, and supporting informed decision

making.

What is a DSS for the NBI? (3)

Nile

Nil


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DSS design principles:

Ease of use

FlexibilityModularity

Openness, transparency

Scientific excellence

Advanced technology

Compatibility, interoperability

Cost efficiency

Nile

Nil


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Basic Questions (TOR):

What will the system be used for ?

What is the output of the system ?

Nile

Nile


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What will the system be used for ?

Direct support of the decision making process:

selecting and configuring interventions that address themajor issues:

Structuring the problem, organizing (shared) information basis

Defining a preference structure

Designing alternative solutions (scenario analysis, optimization)

Evaluating alternatives

Ranking and selection of alternatives Monitoring impacts ?

Nile

Nile


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Model scenarios, generating alternatives incl.

evaluation (multi-criteria, increase the overall netbenefit), that addresses the stakeholders main issues

(core system)

Nile

Nile


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Main issues and outputs (1):

Water resources availability: demand/supply, reliability,

supply/demand management

Increased energy demand: hydropower production,

reservoir design/operation

Irrigation: water demand/supply, efficiency, reliability

(availability), production

Nile

Nile


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Main issues and outputs (2):Watershed degradation: land use change, soil erosion,

runoff patterns (floods)

Soil/bank erosion: flow regime/turbidity, sediment

transport

Water quality/pollution: point/non-point source pollution,allocation/treatment

Droughts and floods: frequency, extent, impacts,

effectiveness of mitigation measures (reservoirs, landuse)

Nile

Nile


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Alternative scenarios (interventions), sensitivity analysis

Evaluation: water budgets, impact of interventions on

downstream/overall system

Ranking of alternatives

Nile

Nile


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Define the Problem (decision situation with regard todifficulties or concerning new opportunities)

Construct a Model that describes the real-world problem

Identify possible Solutions to the modelled problem and

evaluate the solutions

Compare, choose, and recommend a potential solution to

the problem

a typical trial-and-error approach

The Process of Decision MakingWhat Decision Makers usually do when they make a decision?

Nile

Nile


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Consider all different alternatives from which to choose

(non-trivial problem)

Predict consequences of uncertainties

Make rapid decision on a changing and controversial

environment

The Process of Decision Making

What Decision Makers usually need to do when they make adecision?

Nile

Nile


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Decision Makers must be more sophisticated.

They must use new tools and techniques of their fields

They need computer support = Decision Support System


Which tools may help them?

Nile

Nile


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1. Problem:

What is wrong?

2. Actions / Preferences:

What are the Opportunities? What do we want?

3. Alternatives:

What can be done?

4. Evaluation:

What does it cost? Not affordable? go to 2 or 3

5. Comparison:

The best Alternative? Not agreed? go to 2, 3, 4

6. Final Decision:

Framework for Decision Making

Nile

Nile


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Nile

Nil I f ti S tNile


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Nile Information SystemNile

case study nile basin

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