case study: households spending and consumption trends
TRANSCRIPT
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8/12/2019 Case Study: Households spending and consumption trends
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1. WHY MIGHT USES OF HOUSEHOLD SPENDING DATA DIFFER BETWEEN COMMERCIAL ANDGOVERNAMENTAL ORGANISATION?
Commercial organisations basically pursue a self-gain in terms of profitability, while governmental
organisations tend to act for the common good of the society and the State. Commercial organisationsare interested in both microeconomics and macroeconomics issues: the former comprehend what
consumers are willing to buy, and the relationship between different amount of spending on various
categories of goods. These analysis are used to reveal the most profitable product lines, and the
chances for changes in strategy or diversification. Macroeconomics matters include aggregate
household consumption on goods and services, and on the potential of the whole economy to bear the
growth of individual firms or industries. Finally, commercial organisations can confront the levels of
sales between them and the competitors, and respond accordingly.
Governmental organisations use consumption data for three main purposes: to evaluate public policies
effects, aims and related changes; to analyse current economy, both from an internal and external
(worldwide) perspective; to foresee future trends in economy and spending. Its important to assess
whether public policies are effective or not, and in this case to improve upon them. Once modifications
are applied, there will be different effects on spending levels to consider. Moreover, public policies can
be targeted to specific groups of people in order to help them (low income people, for instance).
Governmental organisations analyse microeconomics and macroeconomics issues too, this time not for
a personal benefit, but in order to introduce new policies and have an overall evaluation of the current
situation. Diverse spending amounts on different products and the correlation income levels-spending
levels, as well as total consumption data, also helps to compare national economy with the rest of the
world. Lastly, historical data are used to relate changes in the economic circumstances to short and
long-term variations in spending levels, or vice versa: if household spending on certain services/goodschanges permanently over a period of time, that could modify the economy overall.
2. HOW DO DATA USERS BENEFIT FROM SOME KNOWLEDGE OF CONVENTIONS SUCH AS THOSE USEDIN CONSUMER TRENDS?
Conventions, by means of coherence and easy comprehensibility, help to uniform the way data are
presented, thus interpreted, worldwide. For example, applying the COICOP (international standard for the
measurement of consumption), all countries will be able to classify their households spending in terms of
different purposes sought when buying products or services. Other conventions deal with the discrepancy
between acquisition of goods and its respective payment (expense is recognised once goods are received,
not when payment takes place), the differences in housing services involving owner-occupying households
and leaseholders, and second-hand purchases.
3.WHICH TYPE OF DATA SERIES, IN MONETARY TERMS, ON HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION INDICATES THE
VOLUME OF GOODS ACQUIRED?
There are three types of data, all related to each other, which express the magnitude of volume acquired in
monetary units. First of all, current-price figures relate the changes in volume of goods acquired to their
price. As a consequence, changes in spending figures, since calculated at current prices, connect again
alterations in volume and in prices. From these figures a third set of data, called constant-price series, can
be obtained. This is the most straightforward way to estimate variations in quantity of goods purchased:
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basically, payments at one periods current price are reformulatedon the basis of the prices charged during
the previous period. The difference between the two periods express the variation of volume of goods
acquired.
4.WHY DO ECONOMISTS SUGGEST DATA USERS SHOULD DISTINGUISH BETWEEN CHANGES IN RELATIVEPRICES AND CHANGES IN THE OBSERVABLE PRICE OF A GOOD?
A relative price is given by the ratio of two prices, therefore it is the measure of the price of a good or
service in relation to another. The problem with these data is the effect of inflation on them: since prices in
different categories of good are affected by different degrees of inflation level, the ratio of two prices
represents a misleading esteem of effective changes in prices. Therefore, changes in relative prices have to
be taken into consideration because they influence households expenditure to a different extent compared
to changes in observable prices.
5.DO THE DATA PRESENTED CONFIRM THE VOLUMES OF DURABLES ACQUIRED IN 2008 WERE HIGHERTHAN THOSE IN 2004 BECAUSE REAL INCOME INCREASED?
From the charts we can clearly state that total volume of spending increased from 2004 to 2008, but this
rate (+2.7% from 1964 to 2008) approximately matched the level of rise in real incomes (+2.6% from 1964
to 2008). Therefore, total consumption and real income went at the same pace. However, if we look
carefully at the composition of total spending, we can clearly see that more was spent on durable goods
than on other categories. The chart displaying real spending as a share of real income clearly shows that,
between 2004-2008, the percentages for Servicesand non-durable goods decreased despite the increase
in income, while the percentage for durable goods increased almost at the same level of income rise. More
Durableswere therefore acquired since a bigger proportion of income was spent on them, and a smallerlevel was spent on services. But after all this is a direct consequence of income increase! Indeed, due to the
greater volatility in the purchase of Durables(connected to their greater income-elasticity, compared to
services), we can conclude that more Durableswere purchased as a consequence of an increase in real
income.
6.DO THE DATA PRESENTED SUPPORT THE VIEW THAT SPENDING ON SERVICES IS MORE VOLATILE AND
INCOME-ELASTIC THAN TOTAL SPENDING ON GOODS?
Even if consumer spending level tends to be quite homogeneous over time despite the change in real
income (consumption smoothing), here we can see that spending on Services is even more uniform than
total spending of goods. It is sufficient to compare charts 4 and 5 to have a demonstration of that: the line
representing quarterly changes in real spending on Services (chart 5) follow a much more constant and
homogeneous path than the one for quarterly changes in real total spending(chart 4) , which have a
greater spread and more uneven path. Total spending is therefore more volatile and income-elastic, due to
the effect of Durables and Semi-durablesspending (which , as showed in chart 5, are even more
changeable and unpredictable) on it.