Saif Khan

Mai Sumita

Maho Takahashi

Case Study: BOSNIAN WAR

End of WW I

WW II: Serbs and Croats fight on opposite sides

1945 - Josip Broz (Tito) takes the office of Prime Minister

Background

Yugoslavia

Serbs Macedonians

Montenegrins Croats Slovenes Bosnian

Muslims

Tito ideology

Croats

Jews

Gypsies

Serbs

Communists

TITO

Need for unity: Open animosity against any group prohibited

1980 - Tito dies

Serb Chetniks

WE CAN ALL BE BROs !!

1986 - Unification movement is shatteredSlovenes and Croats reply with own brand of nationalism1987 - Slobodan Milosevic comes into power. Forms alliances with Serbs nationalists: ‘Greater Serbia’First target: Kosovo and Vojvodina: (FIRST POSSIBLE INTERVENTION POINT)

Serbian Renewal Movement

600,000 Serbs living in Croatia promised armed support by MilosevicHostilities from Croatian Govt. (HDA Party) tooSerb paramilitaries and JNA forces attack Krajina regionCSCE and EC try to broker ceasefire agreements, send EU monitors on ground to oversee negotiations.

1991

July and September - France, Germany, Netherlands and Italy propose to send armed forces to impose peace. England says nayPM Major: ‘Western intervention would extend the fighting perhaps to Bosnia, Macedonia, or elsewhere.’

Alternative action available?Recognize secessionist states as sovereign ones -> Arm states against Serb nationalists, back by air strikes, BUTWould have required physical troops if strikes unsuccessfulWould have set a precedent for secessionist movements (Soviet Union, India, Romania and China fearful)

1991

What actually happened

25. Sept - Resolution 713: Mandatory Arms Embargo. No effect on Serb attack but spells doom for Bosnian defenders.

1991

2. Jan - Bosnian president requests 2,000-3,000 peacekeepers

Jan –Slovenian and Croatian independence recognized by the EU

1992

1992Ethnic Cleansing Begins

29. Feb - Bosnia declares independence, but gets boycotted by the Serbs

6. Apr - Bosnia’s independence is recognized by the European Union -Serbia sieges Sarajevo and takes in control of Bosnia, ethnic cleansing starts

International Community still hesitant on direct force intervention…

Early Apr - Request is repeated by Bosnian foreign minister, Silajdzic. 7.Apr – Resolution 749 is passed and European Community is persuaded to put in effort to bring ceasefire and opportunity for political negotiation. Resolution 749: Decides to authorize the earliest possible full deployment of the United Nations Protection Force; Calls upon all parties and others concerned not to resort to violence, particularly in any area where the Force is to be based or deployed

1992

Late Apr- Security Council ceases any interference outside Bosnia that blocksthe delivery of humanitarian aid immediately.

UNPROFOR (UN Protection Force) in Sarajevo provide

humanitarian aid and support

1992

1992 27. May - EC ambassadors impose small sanction against Serbia and Montenegro, freeze all export-credit guarantees and take their hands off the scientific and technical corporation. No regulation on trading of oil.

July - Security Council permits Resolution 764 “to ensure the security and functioning of Sarajevo airport and the delivery of humanitarian assistance”

End of July - At this point:More than 1 million Bosnians homeless.500,000 have fledMany Muslim women and girls have been raped

1992

19923. Aug- Bosnia released from arms embargo by Security Council (under Article 51 of the UN Charter) to “achieve the right to individual and collective self-defence”

13. Aug- Security Council passes Resolution 770, which authorizes “all measures necessary (including force) to ensure the delivery of humanitarian aid”

1992Aug- Security Council authorizes Resolution 776 and increases number of troops to 6,000.

- US and UK hesitate to send their ground troops, but UK eventually decides to send 1,800 at disposal of the UN - Media tensions rise - UNHCR members each pledge US $152 million for refugee support

7. Jan – Bosnian Serb village of Kravica attacked by ARBiH.Led to reprisals from Bosnian Serbs

1993

April – Serbs attack Srebrenica

Leading to:

1993

Constant shelling by Bosnian Serbs

Increasing number of refugees

Devastating living condition

16. Apr – Resolution 819: Under Chapter VII of UN Charter, declares Srebrenica as a safe area, to be free from any armed attack. Resolution extends UNPROFOR’s role to protecting the safe area, increases number of personnel

Resolution 824: Adds Sarajevo, Tuzla, Žepa, Goražde, Bihać to list of safe areas .

1993

1993In

tens

ity o

f int

erve

ntio

n

US and other Non-Aligned group of Security Council

European Countries

‘SAFE AREA’ POLICY

Why the ‘Safe Area’ policy?

Ineffectiveness of Safe Area PolicyBosnian Muslims had to get disarmed too.

Resolution 819, Paragraph 1“Demands that all parties and others concerned treat Srebrenica and its surroundings as a safe area which should be free from any armed attack or any other hostile act”

Bosnian Serbs did not respect the resolutionNo enforcement action in case the resolution was not implemented

1993

4. Jun - Resolution 836: Extends UNPROFOR’s role of deferring attack against safe areas

Results of Safe Area PolicySituation in Srebrenica got worseBosnian Serbs’ reprisals

Late May – After brief ceasefire, Serbs’ attack on Civilians intensifies

1993

19949. Feb- Under the request of UN, NATO launched air strike against artillery and mortar positions around Sarajevo23. Feb- The end of Croat-Bosniak war with Washington agreement10-11. Apr- UNPROFOR’s air strike to protect Gorazde (one of the safe areas)14. Apr- Serbs take UN personnel as hostage12-13. Nov- US lifts arms embargo against Bosnia

1995

July- Army of Republika Srpska (VRS) occupied Srebrenica, another UN safe area 7,414 Muslim men murdered; the worst war crime of the whole war

Early Aug- “Operation Storm” by Croat-Bosniak army takes over Krajina region in Croatia

30. Aug- 14. Sep - Operation Deliberate Force (massive air strike led by NATO to undermine the capability of VRS) begins

Operation Deliberate Force: Launched about 300 air craftsSerb responded with arm campaignto take Bosnia under their controlCommitted in bringing Serbia to Dayton Peace Conference

1995

12. Oct - 60-day ceasefire comes into effect

1. Nov -Peace talks begin in Dayton, Ohio

14. Dec - Peace agreement signed in Paris

1995

Conclusion according to Wheeler’s Criteria-Minimum Criteria①Supreme Humanitarian Emergency

②Last Resort/Necessity

③Proportionality

④Positive Humanitarian Outcome

Short term

Long termLong term

Conclusion according to Wheeler’s Criteria-Optional Criteria⑤Humanitarian Motive

⑥Humanitarian Justification

⑦Legality

⑧Selectivity

1991 – Serbs attack Krajina region (Croatia) -> International Community hesitant to intervene -> Arms Embargo

1992 – Start of ethnic cleansing & hesitancy of International Community

1993 – The Setback of “Safe-Area” Policy1994 & 1995 - NATO air raid, end of the war

Summary

AftermathEstimated number of 100,000 people were killed

(80% Bosniak)Many migrants (about half million people) are not

back in Bosnia yet because of financial reasonAfter the war, EU and NATO provided

peacekeeping force for Bosnia’s stablityIn early 2007, International Crisis Group warned

that ethnic nationalism remains strong still

Bosnia after the conflictWar crime and trials…:-Milosevic’s legal procedure started from 2002-Milosevic argued that he did not directly commited some of the crimes, such as ordering killing and raping-He died during the legal procedure -Two Bosnian Serb officials were sentenced 22 years in jail

Bosnia’s government today-New government was formed in 2011. (Total of 10 ministers- 4 Bosniaks, 3 Serbs, 3 Croats)-Multi ethnic party, Social Democratic Party (SDP) has the largest support (25%)

Bosnia after the conflict

http://isme.tamu.edu/JSCOPE00/Barnes00.html#_ftnref3http://theredhunter.com/just_war_theory/http://www.nato.int/ifor/un/u930222a.htmhttp://www.nato.int/ifor/un/u930331a.htmhttp://www.nato.int/ifor/un/u930416a.htmhttp://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/bosnias-safe-

areas-west-sets-the-stage-for-a-human-tragedy-the-creation-of-un-safe-refugee-zones-proceeds-apace-in-these-diseaseridden-camps-thousands-of-orphaned-muslim-children-with-no-hope-for-the-future-will-turn-to-crime-or-terrorism-1490291.html

http://www.nato.int/ifor/un/u930604a.htmSaving Strangers, Nicholas J. Wheeler, Oxford university press,

p. 251-253

http://www.history.com/topics/bosnian-genocidehttp://isme.tamu.edu/JSCOPE00/Barnes00.html#_ftnref3http://theredhunter.com/just_war_theory/http://www.nato.int/ifor/un/u930222a.htmhttp://www.nato.int/ifor/un/u930331a.htmhttp://www.nato.int/ifor/un/u930416a.htmhttp://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/bosnias-safe-areas-west-sets-the-stage-for-a-human-tragedy-the-creation-of-un-safe-refugee-zones-proceeds-apace-in-these-diseaseridden-camps-thousands-of-orphaned-muslim-children-with-no-hope-for-the-future-will-turn-to-crime-or-terrorism-1490291.htmlhttp://www.nato.int/ifor/un/u930604a.htmSaving Strangers, Nicholas J. Wheeler, Oxford university press, p. 251-253

http://www.e-ir.info/2011/08/23/normative-power-still-matters-adopting-the-srebrenica-resolution/

http://www.eoslifework.co.uk/balkaft.htm http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17211415 http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/

2013/03/201332717273192473.html http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-100354/Milosevic-blasts-

war-crimes-trial.html http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/europe/03/11/milosevic.trial/ http://www.history.com/topics/bosnian-genocide http://www.europeanforum.net/country/bosnia_herzegovina http://www.womenundersiegeproject.org/conflicts/profile/bosnia http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2012/04/04/timeline-conflict-

bosnia-hercegovina