Prof. Carlota PerezProf. Carlota PerezUniversities of Cambridge, Tallinn and SussexUniversities of Cambridge, Tallinn and Sussex

CUD Global Conference September 2008CUD Global Conference September 2008 Amsterdam, September 23Amsterdam, September 23--2424

ICT and GREENICT and GREEN A NATURAL PARTNERSHIPA NATURAL PARTNERSHIP TO NURTURETO NURTUREShaping a sustainable globalizationShaping a sustainable globalization and redesigning the and redesigning the ‘‘good lifegood life’’

Is global growthIs global growth environmentally sustainable ?environmentally sustainable ?

UNDERSTANDINGUNDERSTANDING TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS AND PARADIGM SHIFTSAND PARADIGM SHIFTS CAN HELP ANSWER THOSE QUESTIONSCAN HELP ANSWER THOSE QUESTIONS

Is full globalization compatible Is full globalization compatible with the sowith the so--called called ““American way ofAmerican way of lifelife””??

Could there be better?

Why do so many people around the world Why do so many people around the world think think that the that the ““American way of lifeAmerican way of life”” is the best?is the best?

Is ICT part of the problem or Is ICT part of the problem or part of the solution?part of the solution?

The historical analysis reveals a process of mutual shapingThe historical analysis reveals a process of mutual shaping

Some crucial relationships to examineSome crucial relationships to examine

WITH MAJOR MARKET CHANGES EVERY HALFWITH MAJOR MARKET CHANGES EVERY HALF--CENTURYCENTURY

MARKETMARKET PROFILEPROFILE

TECHNOLOGYTECHNOLOGY SOCIETYSOCIETY

Each takes 40Each takes 40--60 years to spread across the world and reach maturity60 years to spread across the world and reach maturity

FIVE TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS IN 240 YEARSFIVE TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS IN 240 YEARS

The The ‘‘Industrial RevolutionIndustrial Revolution’’ (machines, factories and canals) (machines, factories and canals) 17711771BritainBritain

BritainBritain

BritainBritain USAUSA

GermanyGermany

Each

begin

s in a

core

coun

tryEa

ch be

gins i

n a co

re co

untry

……

USAUSA

USAUSA

USA?USA? Europe?Europe?

Both?Both? Other?Other?

Age of Steam, Coal, Iron and Railways Age of Steam, Coal, Iron and Railways 18291829

Age of Steel and Heavy Engineering (electrical, chemical, civil,Age of Steel and Heavy Engineering (electrical, chemical, civil, naval)naval)18751875

Age of the Automobile, Oil, Petrochemicals and Mass ProductionAge of the Automobile, Oil, Petrochemicals and Mass Production19081908

Age of Information Technology and TelecommunicationsAge of Information Technology and Telecommunications19711971

Age of Biotech, Bioelectronics, Nanotech and new materials?Age of Biotech, Bioelectronics, Nanotech and new materials?200??200??

A massive change in the direction of changeA massive change in the direction of change

Why call them revolutions?Why call them revolutions?

CHANGING THE OPPORTUNITY SPACE AND RESHAPING SOCIETYCHANGING THE OPPORTUNITY SPACE AND RESHAPING SOCIETY

A powerful cluster of visible new and dynamic

industries and infrastructures

Explosive growth

and structural change

New generic technologies, infrastructures and

organizational principles capable of modernizing

the existing industries too

A quantum jump in

innovation and productivity

potential for all

NEW INDUSTRIES and NEW INDUSTRIES and NEW PARADIGM FOR ALLNEW PARADIGM FOR ALL

Because they transform the whole economy!Because they transform the whole economy!

Each technological revolution provides a new interEach technological revolution provides a new inter--related set related set of lifeof life--shaping goods and services at shaping goods and services at ‘‘affordableaffordable’’ pricesprices

Each new style becomes the embodiment of progress and comfort shaping the “good-life” desires and dreams of the majority

Age of Steam, Coal, Age of Steam, Coal, iron and railwaysiron and railways

VICTORIAN VICTORIAN LIVINGLIVING

The British ‘middle classes’ establish an industry-based urban lifestyle

different from that of the country-based aristocracy. It spreads to new upper classes elsewhere

Age of Steel andAge of Steel and Heavy EngineeringHeavy Engineering First GlobalizationFirst Globalization

THE BELLE EPOQUETHE BELLE EPOQUEBritish, European and American

upper and middle classes establish a cosmopolitan lifestyle

spreading to the upper classes of the world

Age of the Automobile,Age of the Automobile, Oil, PetrochemicalsOil, Petrochemicals and Mass Production and Mass Production

THE AMERICAN THE AMERICAN WAY OF LIFEWAY OF LIFE

American upper and middle classes establish a suburban energy-intensive lifestyle

spreading to the working classes of the advanced countries

and to the middle classes of the developing world

Age of Information Age of Information Technology andTechnology and Telecommunications Telecommunications

SUSTAINABLESUSTAINABLE GLOBALGLOBAL LIFESTYLESLIFESTYLES

Will the affluent educated classes of the developed and emerging countries

establish an ICT-intensive knowledge society with a variety of environmentally friendly lifestyles and consumption patterns???

??

The emergence of the The emergence of the ‘‘American Way of LifeAmerican Way of Life’’as the paradigm shift from the 1910sas the paradigm shift from the 1910s……

Refrigerators and central heatingRefrigerators and central heatingIce boxes and coal stoves

Doing housework with electrical equipmentDoing housework with electrical equipmentDoing housework by hand

Preference for disposable plastics of all sortsPreference for disposable plastics of all sortsPaper, cardboard, wood and glass packaging

Suburban living separate from workSuburban living separate from workUrban or country living and working

Mass media, radio, movies and television Mass media, radio, movies and television Local newspapers, posters, theaters, parties

Automobiles, buses, trucks, Automobiles, buses, trucks, airplanes and motorcyclesairplanes and motorcycles

Trains, horses, carriages, stage coaches, ships and bicycles

Synthetic materialsSynthetic materialsNatural materials (cotton, wool, leather, silk..)

Refrigerated, frozen or preserved food Refrigerated, frozen or preserved food bought periodically in supermarkets bought periodically in supermarkets

Fresh food bought daily from specialized suppliers

FROM ENERGY-SCARCE LIVING Energy is expensive and often inaccessible

TO ENERGY-INTENSIVE HOMES AND MOBILITYEnergy is cheap and its availability unlimited

……all strongly aided by advertising, business strategies all strongly aided by advertising, business strategies and government policiesand government policies

THE CURRENT TECNOTHE CURRENT TECNO--ECONOMIC PARADIGM SHIFTECONOMIC PARADIGM SHIFT beginning in the 1970sbeginning in the 1970s

FROM THE LOGIC FROM THE LOGIC OF CHEAP ENERGY (oil)OF CHEAP ENERGY (oil) for transport, electricity, for transport, electricity, synthetic materials, etc.synthetic materials, etc.

TO THE LOGIC TO THE LOGIC OF CHEAP INFORMATIONOF CHEAP INFORMATION

its processingits processing transmission and productive usetransmission and productive use

Excessive use Excessive use of energy,of energy, materials and materials and tangible productstangible products

Huge potentialHuge potential for savings infor savings in energy and materialsenergy and materialsPreference Preference for intangible valuefor intangible value

Each paradigm opens different new routes for making profits as well as for achieving socially desirable goals

Three of the many new directions of the current paradigm shiftThree of the many new directions of the current paradigm shift

Mass productionMass production ICTICT-- Flexible productionFlexible production

NATIONAL ECONOMIESNATIONAL ECONOMIES GLOBALIZATIONGLOBALIZATION

Global economy with differentiated

national, supranational and local spaces

HOMOGENEITYHOMOGENEITY DIVERSITYDIVERSITY

Adaptability (including upgrading as change) Niche markets; ‘the long tail’

Potential for a great variety of lifestyles on a common ICT platform

UNAVOIDABLE UNAVOIDABLE ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGEENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE

CAPACITY FOR CAPACITY FOR ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTIONPROTECTION

Measurement, monitoring and control Recycling and refurbishing

Conservation; closed-loop systems Avoiding pollution and waste

But the shift to the new opportunity spaceBut the shift to the new opportunity space has not fully happened yethas not fully happened yet

THE NEW PARADIGM IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE OLDTHE NEW PARADIGM IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE OLD

WHY? Because cheap oil and cheap Asian labor WHY? Because cheap oil and cheap Asian labor favored the stretching of the old consumption patterns in the crfavored the stretching of the old consumption patterns in the crucial 1990sucial 1990s

Mass production disposability and high use of energy and materiaMass production disposability and high use of energy and materials is still with usls is still with us

An automobile in 1898

ItIt’’s just like the first automobiless just like the first automobiles that began looking like horse driven carriagesthat began looking like horse driven carriages

Reproduction: L.De Vries. 1972

CAN THE NEW PARADIGM PREVAIL?

YESYESIF economic circumstances changeIF economic circumstances changeIF it becomes an aspiration of the majoritiesIF it becomes an aspiration of the majoritiesIF it is a positive sum game IF it is a positive sum game between business and societybetween business and society

Sustainability must at the same time…“create economic opportunities and improve the quality of life”President Bill Clinton CUD 2008 Conference, San Francisco

…and IF governments become proactiveand define a new playing field clearly tilted towards “green”

• Brand new is better than old• Bigger is better than smaller• More is better than less• Synthetic is better than natural• Fabricated is better than hand-made• Disposable is comfortable• Leisure is rest (not exercise)• Shopping is a leisure activity• If you don’t keep up with the Jones’,

you are falling behind

The “luxury” life: values and aspirations under

THE MASS PRODUCTION PARADIGM

•• Role models Role models •• AdvertisingAdvertising•• Movies, TVMovies, TV•• Relative pricesRelative prices•• Marketing strategiesMarketing strategies

OPINION SHAPERSOPINION SHAPERS

•• Low cost of products Low cost of products •• Consumer creditConsumer credit•• Unemployment insuranceUnemployment insurance•• Official trade unionsOfficial trade unions•• Savings and loan banksSavings and loan banks•• Low cost housingLow cost housing•• Easy mortgagesEasy mortgages

ENABLERS ENABLERS

Quality of life is measured by fulfilment of values and aspirationsThose aspirations are historically determined

by the way society shapes each successive technological potential

Through shaping and enabling Through shaping and enabling a changea change in our notions of luxuryin our notions of luxury and the and the ““good lifegood life””

BUT IT MUST HAPPENBUT IT MUST HAPPEN FIRST AND VISIBLYFIRST AND VISIBLY

IN THE ADVANCED COUNTRIESIN THE ADVANCED COUNTRIES

The shift to The shift to ““ICTICT--greengreen”” consumption patternsconsumption patterns is possibleis possible

IF NOT BY GUILT AND FEARIF NOT BY GUILT AND FEAR BUT BY DESIRE ANDBUT BY DESIRE AND

ASPIRATION ASPIRATION

•• Small is better than bigSmall is better than big•• Natural materials are better than syntheticNatural materials are better than synthetic•• Multipurpose is better than single functionMultipurpose is better than single function•• ‘‘GourmetGourmet’’ food is better than standardfood is better than standard•• Fresh organic fruit and vegetables are healthierFresh organic fruit and vegetables are healthier•• Exercise is important for well beingExercise is important for well being•• Global warming is a real dangerGlobal warming is a real danger•• Not commuting to work is possible and preferableNot commuting to work is possible and preferable•• Solar power is luxuriousSolar power is luxurious•• Internet communications, shopping, learning Internet communications, shopping, learning

and entertainment are better than the old ways , eand entertainment are better than the old ways , etc.tc.

PART OF THE PARADIGM SHIFT IS ALREADY HAPPENINGPART OF THE PARADIGM SHIFT IS ALREADY HAPPENING

The notions of luxury and good taste The notions of luxury and good taste emerge at the top of the income scale emerge at the top of the income scale

and spread by imitationand spread by imitation

BUT RELATIVE PRICES AND WIDER INTERESTS HAVE TO FOLLOW! WILL BUT RELATIVE PRICES AND WIDER INTERESTS HAVE TO FOLLOW! WILL THEY?THEY?

Major transformations to expect (or to participate in)Major transformations to expect (or to participate in)

Energy systemsFreight transport & distribution

New materials and recyclingPackaging and conservation

Waste disposalEducation

Health and well beingSports and leisureCultural activities

Third Age livingArchitecture and urban planning

Etc. etc.

RISING COSTS OF ENERGY, RISING COSTS OF ENERGY, MATERIALS AND TRANSPORTMATERIALS AND TRANSPORT

POTENTIAL OF INFORMATIONPOTENTIAL OF INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONSAND COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGIESTECHNOLOGIES

GROWING GROWING ENVIRONMENTAL THREATS ENVIRONMENTAL THREATS

THE IMBALANCES IN THE GLOBAL LOGISTICS INFRASTRUCTURE

Rapidly expandingUltra efficient

Cost decreasing

5th surge technologies deeply transforming

4th surge telephony

Slowly expandingModernizing Cost increasing

5th surge paradigm modernizing 3rd and 4th surge technologies

DIGITAL DIGITAL TRANSPORTTRANSPORT

PHYSICAL PHYSICAL TRANSPORTTRANSPORT≠≠

An example of future innovation paths

THE CURRENT ROUTE TO GLOBALIZATION IS AN EXPLOSION IN FREIGHT TRTHE CURRENT ROUTE TO GLOBALIZATION IS AN EXPLOSION IN FREIGHT TRAFFICAFFIC Since the 1990s goods trade grows more than twice as fast as production

Massive innovation will be needed Massive innovation will be needed to cope with (or to avoid) the consequencesto cope with (or to avoid) the consequences

Global merchandise production and trade in volume 1950Global merchandise production and trade in volume 1950--20042004

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

35019

5019

5319

5619

5919

6219

6519

6819

7119

7419

7719

8019

8319

8619

8919

9219

9519

9820

0120

04

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100

Deployment 4th Installation 5th T.P. World Merchandise Exports

World Merchandise Production

MicroMicro--processorprocessor BigBig--bangbang

NASDAQNASDAQ collapsecollapse

Sour

ce: W

TO

IN THE CURRENT PATTERN OF GLOBALIZATIONIN THE CURRENT PATTERN OF GLOBALIZATION THE LIONTHE LION’’S SHARE OF THE NEW TRADE IS IN GOODS; NOT IN SERVICESS SHARE OF THE NEW TRADE IS IN GOODS; NOT IN SERVICES

MUCH INNOVATION WILL HAVE TO COME FORTH MUCH INNOVATION WILL HAVE TO COME FORTH TO MAKE GLOBALIZATION ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLYTO MAKE GLOBALIZATION ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY

U.S. Exports and Imports of Goods and Services (current billions US$), 1970-2002

Installation 5thInstallation 5th TP

Bill

ion

US$

Services ExportsServices Imports

Goods Exports

Goods Imports

Sour

ce: W

TO

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

140019

70

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

2002

……and ICT and ICT is the most powerful complementis the most powerful complement to advance in the new directions!to advance in the new directions!

ICTICT

PHYSICAL PHYSICAL PRODUCTSPRODUCTS

THE NEW INNOVATION PATHS IN DEPLOYMENTInformation and logistics infrastructure

Digital networks

Etc.

Technical services

User participation

Business models

Packaging

Handling

Post-sales maintenance

Service at destination

Land/water/airTransport

Distribution systems

Storage

EnergyEnergy

MaterialsMaterials

EnvironmentalEnvironmental managementmanagement

ReRe--designdesign CoordinationCoordination

A sustainable development pathA sustainable development path for a positivefor a positive--sum global future sum global future is possibleis possible

Even with the likely price changes, Even with the likely price changes, uncertainty would refrain investmentuncertainty would refrain investmentTHE MARKET CANNOT DO IT ALONETHE MARKET CANNOT DO IT ALONE

WE ARE PRECISELYWE ARE PRECISELY AT THE HISTORICAL MOMENT AT THE HISTORICAL MOMENT WHEN THE STATE WHEN THE STATE MUST COME BACK INTO THE PICTUREMUST COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE

To understand this statementTo understand this statement we must look intowe must look intoHOW TECHNOLOGIES PROPAGATEHOW TECHNOLOGIES PROPAGATE

BUT IT WILL NOT HAPPEN AUTOMATICALLYBUT IT WILL NOT HAPPEN AUTOMATICALLY

DEPLOYMENTDEPLOYMENTINSTALLATION

We are hereWe are here

““Creative destructionCreative destruction””Learning the newLearning the new unlearning the oldunlearning the oldA great A great market experimentmarket experimentLed byLed by financialfinancial capitalcapitalEnding in Ending in a stock marketa stock market crashcrash

INSTALLATION

““Creative Creative constructionconstruction””

Led byLed by production capitalproduction capital

Applying the paradigmApplying the paradigm to innovateto innovate

across all sectorsacross all sectors and to spreadand to spread

the social benefitsthe social benefits more widelymore widely

Until maturityUntil maturity and exhaustionand exhaustion

DEPLOYMENTDEPLOYMENT

???2O 2O -- 30 years30 years2O 2O -- 30 years30 years

Major technology

bubble

bigbig--bangbang NextNextbigbig--bangbang

Time

Degr

ee of

diffu

sion

of the

new

techn

ologic

al po

tentia

l

The first half sets up the infrastructure and lets the markets pick the winners the second half reaps the full economic and social potential

EACH TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION PROPAGATES IN TWO DIFFERENT PERIODEACH TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION PROPAGATES IN TWO DIFFERENT PERIODSS

TurningTurning PointPoint

Rece

ssion

s, ins

titutio

nal re

comp

ositio

n an

d ro

le sh

iftRe

cess

ions,

institu

tiona

l reco

mpos

ition

and

role

shift

The historical record: bubble prosperities, recessions and golden ages

17711771 BritainBritain

18291829 BritainBritain

1875 1875 Britain / USABritain / USA

GermanyGermany

1908 1908 USAUSA

1971 1971 USAUSA

18901890––9595

EuropeEurope 19291929––3333

USAUSA 19291929––4343

18481848––50 50

2000/72000/7––??

17931793––9797

TURNING POINTINSTALLATION PERIOD DEPLOYMENT PERIOD

Telecom mania, Internet Telecom mania, Internet emerging marketsemerging markets

and NASDAQand NASDAQ

London funded global marketLondon funded global market infrastructure buildinfrastructure build--upup

(Argentina, Australia, USA)(Argentina, Australia, USA)

Railway maniaRailway mania

Canal maniaCanal mania

The roaringThe roaring twentiestwenties

BubbleBubble

Sustainable global Sustainable global knowledgeknowledge--society society ””golden agegolden age””??

PostPost--warwar Golden ageGolden age

Belle Belle ÉÉpoque (Europe)poque (Europe)““Progressive EraProgressive Era”” (USA)(USA)

The Victorian BoomThe Victorian Boom

GreatGreat British leapBritish leap

Golden AgeGolden Age

Each Golden Age has been facilitatedEach Golden Age has been facilitated by enabling regulation and policies for shaping and widening marby enabling regulation and policies for shaping and widening markets kets

Financial Bubble

Technological explosion

Market saturation

and social unrestGolden Age

Next big-bang

big-bang

Deg

ree

of d

iffus

ion

of th

e te

chno

logi

cal r

evol

utio

nD

egre

e of

diff

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n of

the

tech

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l rev

olut

ion

TimeTime

INSTALLATION PERIODINSTALLATION PERIOD DEPLOYMENT PERIODDEPLOYMENT PERIOD

The sequence of propagation has four phases and a breakThe sequence of propagation has four phases and a break20 20 –– 30 years30 years 20 20 –– 30 years30 years

MATURITYMATURITY

SYNERGYSYNERGY

FRENZYFRENZY

IRRUPTIONIRRUPTION

TUR

NIN

G P

OIN

TTU

RN

ING

PO

INT

CrashCrash Institutional recomposition

And the focus and intensity of innovation change with each phaseAnd the focus and intensity of innovation change with each phase

The logic of the technoThe logic of the techno--economic paradigmeconomic paradigm guides innovation in each area guides innovation in each area

as the focus shifts among the actors and the agentsas the focus shifts among the actors and the agents

ALL INSTITUTIONSALL INSTITUTIONSALL INDUSTRIESALL INDUSTRIES AND ACTIVITIESAND ACTIVITIES

NEWNEW TECHNOLOGYTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRIESINDUSTRIESFinanceFinance

FINANCEFINANCENEWNEW

TECHNOLOGYTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRIESINDUSTRIES

and modernizationand modernization of the old onesof the old ones

FocusFocus ofof inovationinovation ininINSTALLATIONINSTALLATION

Focus of inovation inDEPLOYMENT

FocusFocus ofof inovationinovation ininDEPLOYMENTDEPLOYMENT

All industriesAll industriesFuture industriesFuture industries

[[……and social rebels]and social rebels]

IrruptionIrruption FrenzyFrenzy SynergySynergy MaturityMaturityTURNING TURNING POINTPOINT

How muchHow much institutional innovation institutional innovation

was put in placewas put in place

?

to enable the full deployment to enable the full deployment of the mass production paradigmof the mass production paradigm

and bring on and bring on the Post War Golden Age?the Post War Golden Age?

The welfare state and the facilitators of the suburban living moThe welfare state and the facilitators of the suburban living model del incorporated the workers into the middle income consumer layersincorporated the workers into the middle income consumer layers

POLICIES TO FAVOR AND EXPAND DEMAND FOR MASS PRODUCTIONPOLICIES TO FAVOR AND EXPAND DEMAND FOR MASS PRODUCTION

Facilitating Facilitating ““mass consumerismmass consumerism””:: Consumer credit systems Reduction of the labor day, week and year, Institutionalized labor unions (for salary increases), Accessible savings, loan and mortgage systems for suburban housing, etc.

Widening government demandWidening government demand:: Increasing taxes for State expenditure Defense, mass education and health systems, Infrastructures, public services, etc.

Marshall PlanMarshall Plan For reconstructing European production and consumption capacity

Welfare StateWelfare State: Progressive income tax for redistribution, Unemployment insurance and pensions (safety nets) Universal access to electricity, roads, telephone, education, etc.

And further institutional innovation regulated international trade and finance and kept relative peace

• Bretton Woods (US dollar backed by gold)• International Monetary Fund (IMF) • World Bank• General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)• Political independence for colonies • The United Nations• The Cold War• Etc.

We will need equivalent imagination and determinationWe will need equivalent imagination and determination to innovate towards the Global Knowledge Society Golden Ageto innovate towards the Global Knowledge Society Golden Age

Setting up the framework for a sustainable knowledge societySetting up the framework for a sustainable knowledge society

THE ACTORSGovernmentBusinessCivil society (especially NGOs)UniversitiesMedia

THE MEANSBuilding a widespread consensus

Innovative policies to change market conditions

A tilted playing field on a global scale

THE GOALTHE GOALA A ““green economygreen economy””

A global A global ““manman--onon--thethe--moonmoon””

projectproject

To be effective, the changes and the policies must be clear, reliable, enforceable, long-term and commanding widespread agreement

THE LEVELSGlobalNationalRegionalLocal

A A ““level playing fieldlevel playing field”” for high carbon and low carbon competitors,for high carbon and low carbon competitors,will require changing itwill require changing it strongly in favor of low carbonstrongly in favor of low carbon

Due to more than half a century Due to more than half a century of the massof the mass--production cheapproduction cheap--energy paradigmenergy paradigmhabits, previous investments and externalitieshabits, previous investments and externalitiesare all in favor of high carbon technologiesare all in favor of high carbon technologies

INNOVATING TO SHIFT THE DIRECTION OF INNOVATION WILL NOT BE EASY

TILTING THE FIELD BOLDLY IN FAVOR OF TILTING THE FIELD BOLDLY IN FAVOR OF ““GREENGREEN””

Business decisions:Business decisions:

INNOVATIONINNOVATION LOCATIONLOCATION

INVESTMENTINVESTMENT Etc.Etc.

Consumer decisions:Consumer decisions:

EXPENDITUREEXPENDITURE LOCATIONLOCATION BEHAVIORBEHAVIOR

ETC.ETC.

Relative costsRelative costs and pricesand prices

Other costs:Other costs: Time, risk, etc.Time, risk, etc.

Public attitudesPublic attitudes and opinionsand opinions

Incentives:Incentives: Cost offsetsCost offsets tax breaks, etc.tax breaks, etc.Disincentives:Disincentives: Taxes, Taxes, tariffstariffs,, charges, etc.charges, etc.Rules and Rules and regulations:regulations: Recycling, caps,Recycling, caps, etc.etc.

ENHANCE THE SOCIO- ECONOMIC CONTEXT

MODIFY THE POLICY CONTEXT

John Chambers, Cisco CEOJohn Chambers, Cisco CEO CUD 2008 Conference, San FranciscoCUD 2008 Conference, San Francisco

““It is important to have supportive governmentsIt is important to have supportive governments……

The pure market ideology and practiceThe pure market ideology and practice already played its role already played its role facilitating the installation of the ICT paradigm. facilitating the installation of the ICT paradigm.

Today, market fundamentalism Today, market fundamentalism is as much an is as much an obstacleforobstaclefor full deploymentfull deployment as State fundamentalism was for Installation beforeas State fundamentalism was for Installation before

THE TIME IS RIPE FOR THE STATE THE TIME IS RIPE FOR THE STATE TO COME BACK INTELLIGENTLYTO COME BACK INTELLIGENTLY AND PROMOTE A CONSENSUS VISIONAND PROMOTE A CONSENSUS VISION

““We must all collaborate to paint a visionWe must all collaborate to paint a vision and realize a new architectureand realize a new architecture……I wouldnI wouldn’’t have said this ten years agot have said this ten years ago””

The answer to whether The answer to whether sustainable global growth is feasiblesustainable global growth is feasible is, therefore, YES!is, therefore, YES!

But neither pure But neither pure ““free marketsfree markets”” nor simple nor simple ““environmentalismenvironmentalism”” will get us therewill get us there

The innovation potential of the ICT paradigmThe innovation potential of the ICT paradigm can and must be collectively redirected can and must be collectively redirected towards new patterns towards new patterns of environmentally friendly well beingof environmentally friendly well being and a new profitand a new profit--making dynamic for businessmaking dynamic for business

But it depends on usBut it depends on usAND THE TIME TO ACT IS NOW!AND THE TIME TO ACT IS NOW!

THANK YOU!THANK YOU!