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TRANSCRIPT
2016
CONSTRUCTION MARKET INTELLIGENCE
CARIBBEANREPORT
OFFICES AROUND THE WORLD
AMERICAS ASIA EMEA OCEANIA
RIDER LEVETT BUCKNALL – RESPONSIBLE MANAGEMENTAs a global provider of construction and property advice we recognise that we can make a real difference to ourenvironment, through our business practices and the work we undertake for clients. We have clear environmentalobjectives to minimise waste (including materials and energy) and use renewable or recyclable materials where possible.
This document is printed on recycled material, produced from well-managed forests and other controlled sources,certified under the FSC system and the World Land Trust. The design of this product, selection of materials and finisheshas been informed by our Corporate Responsibility policy.
CANADACalgaryToronto
CARIBBEANBahamasBarbadosCayman IslandsSt. Lucia
USAAustin, TXBoston, MAChicago, ILDenver, COGuam, GUHilo, HIHonolulu, HIKennewick, WALas Vegas, NVLos Angeles, CAMaui, HINew York, NYPhoenix, AZPortland, ORSan Francisco, CASeattle, WATucson, AZWaikoloaWashington, DC
CHINABeijingChengduChongqingDalianGuangzhouGuiyangHaikouHangzhouHong KongMacauNanjingQingdaoShanghaiShenyangShenzhenTianjinWuhanWuxiXiamenXianZhuhai
INDIAMumbai
INDONESIAJakarta
JAPANTokyo
MALAYSIAKuala Lumpur
PHILIPPINESCagayan De Oro CebuDavaoManilaMyanmar
SINGAPORESingapore
SOUTH KOREAJejuSeoul
THAILANDBangkok
VIETNAMHo Chi Minh City
MIDDLE EASTAbu DhabiDubaiMuscatQatarRiyadh
AFRICARLB|Africa AllianceBotswanaSouth AfricaMauritiusMozabique
UKBirchwood/WarringtonBirminghamBristolCumbriaLeedsLondonManchesterSheffieldWelwyn Garden CityWokingham
EUROPERLB|EuroAllianceAustriaBelgiumCroatiaCyprusCzech RepublicFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyLuxembourgNetherlandsNorwayPolandPortugalRussiaSerbiaSpainSwedenTurkey
AUSTRALIAAdelaideBrisbaneCairnsCanberraDarwinGold CoastMelbourneNewcastleNorthern NSWPerthSunshine CoastSydneyTownsville
NEW ZEALANDAucklandChristchurchHamiltonOtagoPalmerston NorthTaurangaWellington
INDEPENDENT CONSULTANTSLOCAL KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERTISEGLOBAL NETWORK
Disclaimer: While the information in this publication is believed to be correct at the time of publishing, no responsibility is accepted for its accuracy. Persons desiring to utilise any information appearing in the publication should verify its applicability to their specific circumstances. Cost information in this publication is indicative and for general guidance only and is based on rates at Quarter 4 2015.
RIDER LEVETT BUCKNALLRider Levett Bucknall is a global property market and construction cost consultant with offices located worldwide.
THE CARIBBEAN REPORTThe Rider Levett Bucknall Caribbean Report is published annually and provides detailed local construction market intelligence and data. It benefits from more than 40 years of local experience enjoyed by the company.
Rider Levett Bucknall’s long history can be traced back to a small firm of quantity surveyors established in 1785 in Reading, England. Following two centuries of consolidation and growth, three major companies with common strengths and ambitions – Rider Hunt, Levett and Bailey and Bucknall Austin – pooled resources and expertise to form the Rider Levett Bucknall global practice in July 2007.
Rider Levett Bucknall’s cost consultancy, project management and advisory services inform a diversity of project types, locations and clients, responding to contexts as diverse as Asia, Oceania, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and the Americas, including the long association in the Caribbean.
Rider Levett Bucknall is a substantial group with over 3,500 people operating from more than 120 global offices. Senior directors are responsible for integrating local knowledge and expertise with access to the global network to provide the best and most up-to-date knowledge. Open communication and depth of interaction transcends to vast experience across a range of sectors.
Grant Owen,Director, Americas
Martyn Bould MBE,Chairman, Caribbean
Tony Smith,Director, Americas
Mortimer Raath,Director, Caribbean
Mark Williamson,MD, Caribbean
RLB would like to thank the following people for their cooperation and assistance in preparing this report…
Nick Bointon - IGG Bointon de GrootKeith Letton - TVS
Chairman
Martyn CW Bould MBE | FRICS, MCIArb, MAPM
(m) +1 345 916 0724
(t) +1 345 946 6063
Managing Director
Mark Williamson | BSc Hons, LLB, FRICS
(m) +44 7979 686 486
(t) +1 758 452 2125/6
Director
Grant Owen | BSc, FRICS, CCP, PQS, CCA
(m) +1 617 319 9638
(t) +1 617 737 9339
Director
Mortimer H. Raath
(m) +44 7961 586 906
(t) +44 20 8527 0488
Director
Tony Smith
(m) +1 808 255 9400
(t) +1 808 521 2641
Director
Stuart Stables | BSc (Hons) FCA MCT MBA
(m) ) +44 7976 734 141
(t) +44 121 503 1603
Stuart Stables,Director, Caribbean
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2016
CARIBBEAN OVERVIEW
For most of the Caribbean, improved economic conditions have continued into 2015 and the outlook for 2016 is for further growth. Tourist numbers are rising and countries are investing in the infrastructure to maintain their competitive position, although a number of them are having problems with debt levels and financial stability. Hotel development also continues, although availability of finance can be an issue.
The IMF expects that growth in 2015
will remain at the 2-2.5% level that
was achieved in 2014, but that this
will rise to 3% in 2016. The commodity
exporting countries in the Caribbean
are forecast to grow faster (2.6%
in 2015 and 3.5% in 2016) than the
tourism-dependent countries (1.9%
and 2.4% respectively). The strongest
growth is expected in Cuba, the
Dominican Republic and St Kitts
& Nevis. However, the IMF warns
that “external, fiscal and financial
vulnerabilities remain high in several
economies”.
The number of international tourists
(overnight visitors) to the Caribbean
grew by 7% in 2014 to 26 million and
the expected outcome for 2015 is for a
further 5% increase. Particularly strong
growth has been seen in Barbados,
Cuba, Haiti and Trinidad & Tobago.
In order to continue to improve their
competitive position in the tourist
market, the Caribbean countries
have been maintaining their policy of
investing in their infrastructure. This
covers airports, ports and roads. As
a result, there have been a number of
enhanced air services from the USA
and Europe in particular arising from
these infrastructure improvements.
The Caribbean hospitality industry
continues to strengthen, with a strong
performance in 2015 and further
growth anticipated in 2016. In the
first half of 2015, there was growth
in all three key performance metrics
across the 1,922 hotels: occupancy
was up by 3% to 73%, average daily
rate was up by 4% and revenue per
available room was up by 8%. As
of June 2015, the Caribbean had
44 hotels with 9,382 rooms under
contract. Of those, 14 hotels with
4,240 rooms were under construction.
However, there is a concern about the
limited amount of financing available
for new construction, which in turn
limits opportunities for developers to
build new hotels.
Construction costs have largely
remained at a similar level to those
shown in last year’s report, but during
2015 we have seen increases of 2-3%
in Antigua, Cayman, Grenada and
Haiti; there have been greater rises
in Cuba (4%) and Dominica (5%).
Bermuda continues to have the
highest construction costs, while the
Dominican Republic and Haiti have
the lowest costs.
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ANGUILLAAnguilla, a British Overseas Territory, has seen the economy begin a modest recovery after a period of contraction, with growth expected to be close to 3% in both 2015 and 2016. Due to its small size and the reliance on tourism and foreign direct investment, Anguilla is very vulnerable to external economic conditions in both the United States and Europe. The improvement in the global environment has therefore undoubtedly helped.
Along with financial services, tourism is a major industry and the improving overall economic situation has seen visitor numbers up by 3% in the first half of 2015. Most of this growth has come from the USA. The renovated 44-room Malliouhana Hotel & Spa, overlooking Meads Bay and Turtle Cove, finally opened in late 2014, but the situation with several failed and stalled hotel development projects seems set to continue. The Government has received financing from the Caribbean Development Bank towards the cost of the Anguilla Community College Development Project and this project was being tendered in mid-2015.
ANTIGUA & BARBUDAThere is some disagreement over the fortunes of the islands’ economy. The IMF predicts that GDP will grow by 1.9% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, while the more bullish ECLAC forecasts a growth of 5.4% in 2015. With tourist numbers down by 4% in the first half of 2015, the latter forecast may prove to be optimistic.
Tourism from the USA is being boosted by the arrival of a direct JetBlue service from New York in late 2015 which will open up the destination to even more business. The government is also looking into the possibility of building a smaller airport in Barbuda to offer a shuttle service with Antigua, using some smaller planes.
The islands are witnessing a number of hotel developments either underway or planned. The $400 million The Royalton Antigua Resort & Spa, a 500-room all-inclusive resort on Deep Bay which also includes a residential complex with more than 200 condominium units, is slated to open in 2017. Others include the Beaches Resort (with construction to be commenced at Long Bay in 2016), actor Robert De Niro’s plan to turn Barbuda's K-Club hotel into a luxury resort that would represent a $250 million investment and Sandals is looking to demolish the Halcyon Cove Hotel and build a new 250-bed hotel. In addition, the tourist board has signed off a number of other hotel projects.
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BAHAMASThe IMF is forecasting marginal growth for the Bahamas in 2015, following a 1% increase in 2014. It sees potential GDP growth of 1.5% per annum over the medium term, but this would be insufficient to generate a significant reduction in the high unemployment rate of around 15%.
The economy faces a number of challenges, including long-term macroeconomic vulnerabilities and the high level of non-performing loans. The position has been made worse by the effects of the Baha Mar bankruptcy. S&P has downgraded the credit rating and has warned that this could be further lowered.
The stalling of the $3.5bn mega Baha Mar resort, with the developers filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, and subsequent liquidation proceedings has placed the Bahamas in an uncertain position. In order to improve competitiveness, the government has investment plans for port development as well as aviation, including the refurbishment of several airports. This follows the recent expansion of Lynden Pindling International Airport. However, the Bahamas’ economic situation will undoubtedly help to determine the extent of this investment.
BARBADOSAfter a flat economy in 2014, Barbados is expected to see a small growth of around 1% in 2015. Predictions are that Barbados' real GDP will expand modestly over the coming years as growth in private consumption and fixed investment offsets reduced levels of government spending. Government policy will focus on reducing the large fiscal deficit, which has been the country's main source of external vulnerability, and on diversifying the tourism-dependent economy.
Improving economic growth in the USA and UK will feed through to greater tourist arrivals to Barbados – these two countries comprise over half of arrivals to the island - and a significant expansion in the tourism industry will more than offset the impact of significant cuts to government spending on economic growth.
There are a number of major projects underway or planned. They include the Sandals Casuarina and Beaches at Almond, the Bridgetown Hyatt Hotel, the Sam Lord’s Wyndham family resort and the $240 million investment in the Plasma Gasification Waste-to-Energy Plant.
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BERMUDAWhile Bermuda enjoys one of the highest GDP per capita levels in the world (at $84,000), the economy is struggling to grow after a six-year recession. The government estimates that real GDP fell by 1.5% in 2014 (18% below the 2008 peak) and it is likely to remain flat in 2015, followed by a 1% increase in 2016.
The government is seeking to table a balanced budget within three years. The 2015 Budget included $1bn to be injected into the economy over the next 3 years. The main areas were hotel development, a new airport terminal building at L F Wade International Airport and America’s Cup Capital; Bermuda was named host for the 2017 America’s Cup yachting race and this is expected to raise the island’s profile as a high-end tourist destination, spurring investment in the hospitality sector.
After a fairly flat year in 2015 for tourist numbers, cruise visitors are predicted to rise by 10% in 2016 to 400,000 due to an increase in occasional calls. United Airlines is resuming its winter service for 2015/16 from Newark to generate more tourist demand.
The first phase of the Bermudiana Beach Resort being built on the site of the Grand Atlantic in Warwick is expected to be completed in time for the 2016 tourist season. Other projects include the expansion of the Fairmont Hamilton Princess by the Green family (also re-branding the Sonesta Beach Hotel into the Princess Beach Club at Sinky Beach), the $85 million Ariel Sands redevelopment project, a $120 million Hotel in St Georges and the Morgan’s Pont hotel development.
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDSBVI’s economy is expected to improve as a result of the economic recovery in North America, with a growth of around 2% anticipated for both 2015 and 2016. The government is supporting this with initiatives to support smaller businesses. The tourist market has been strong, with arrivals up by 2.5% in the first half of 2015 after rising by almost 5% in 2014.
The planned expansion of the Terrance B. Lettsome International Airport has been considerably delayed since 2012, but the government claims that it is still a priority. American Airlines has indicated a desire to operate direct flights from Miami once this expansion takes place. Other planned investments in infrastructure include the Cruise Pier Development and the Sewerage project.
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CAYMAN ISLANDSThe economy has been growing at approximately 2% per annum, although problems with the previous administration has made the position of the incoming government more difficult. In order to bolster domestic demand there may be moves to end duty increases, but with the likely effect of continued spending cuts.
Through the multi-phased development at Health City Cayman Islands, the islands are becoming one of the premier destinations for global medical tourism. It has plans to expand to 2,000 beds over the next decade.
Other projects include Cayman Ice Palace, a $300 million expansion to Camana Bay including improved road links and a new five-star hotel on Seven Mile Beach, the renovation of the Grand Cayman Hyatt Britannia Resort, a $200 million North Sound development, the Kimpton Hotel on Seven Mile Beach and a proposed resort development in Frank Sound. There is an overall $120 million renovation plan for all three of Cayman’s airports to expand and improve the facilities.
CUBAAfter growing by only 1.3% in 2014, Cuba’s economy is now one of the best performing in the Caribbean with a rise of approximately 4% in GDP anticipated for 2015. All areas of economic activity have shown an increase on 2014, with the highest growth rates noted in the sugar industry, manufacturing, construction and retail sales.
Tourist numbers were up by 15% in the first half of 2015 and the improvement in relations with the USA is likely to generate considerable increases in tourist numbers and hence investment, potentially at the expense of other Caribbean countries. A number of US airlines are planning to expand their services to Cuba, including American Airlines and JetBlue.
The 2015 Budget identified a number of priorities for 2016, including creating infrastructure and increasing construction and transportation capacity. House building is expected to grow from 12,000 in 2014 to 17,000 in 2015.
Construction projects related to tourism include a three-year expansion of terminal 3 at Jose Marti International Airport (to increase passengers by 3-4 million per year), and a potential $200 million major new airport to serve as a hub for Latin America is being discussed by Russia and Abu Dhabi investors. Other projects include the development of a modern cruise terminal at Cienfuegos port and a project to develop new golf courses. In addition, the port of Mariel is at the centre of a special development zone established to attract foreign investment into Cuba.
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DOMINICAAfter a period of negative growth, Dominica emerged from recession in 2014 with the economy up by 2% and a similar increase is expected in both 2015 and 2016; the main contributors have been agriculture, construction and tourism, with construction activity up by 5% in 2014 and a 3% increase in hotels. However, August’s tropical storm (Erika) has had a serious effect on the island and is likely to disrupt government spending plans.
Planned developments include a 200-room hotel in Portsmouth at Coconut Beach, a chocolate manufacturing facility and a luxury hotel in Cabrits. Pubic spending will focus on road improvements, while there are plans to construct the international airport at Crompton Point with Chinese involvement and to expand the pier at the Roseau Cruise Ship Berth . A planned geothermal plant is aimed at making Dominica the first Caribbean country to be powered entirely by renewable energy sources.
Following the ravages of tropical storm Erika, the October announcement of a substantial aid packge from the UK government to the Caribbean was seen as a major boost by Dominica’s Prime Minister. The aid package for the region includes £300 million for a new UK-Caribbean Infrastructure Partnership Fund to build vital infrastructure such as new ports, roads and bridges to boost trade and growth; it will be delivered in collaboration with the Caribbean Development Bank. The World Bank has estimated that just under US$350 million will be required to return a semblance of normalcy to the island following the effects of Erika.
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
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CARIBBEAN REPORT
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DOMINICAN REPUBLICThe Dominican Republic remains one of the fastest growing economies in the region. Having grown by 7% in 2014, GDP is forecast to grow by 5-5.5% in both 2015 and 2016, although Presidential elections in 2016 could lead to some uncertainty.
The Dominican Republic is the most-visited destination in the Caribbean, with roughly 5 million tourists in 2014 (in a country with a population of 10 million) and an expected 5.5 million in 2015. As a result, both construction and tourism are key factors in its economic success, although the government has been pushing both mining and energy as economic growth sectors in an effort to diversify its economy.
Real estate has benefitted from the strong growth, with the domestic housing market expanding significantly as well as the tourist-influenced boom which has seen the mushrooming of luxury international and boutique hotels across the country.
The government announced in mid-2015 that it has approved 33 permits for the construction of 3,000 new hotel rooms, with another 11 new investment projects worth US$1.6 billion under consideration. The resultant surge has seen the highest rates of hotel construction in the Caribbean and rising property prices, although the country is still one of the least expensive markets in the Caribbean. The government has pledged to construct up to 40,000 new homes a year using Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) as well as a major programme of new schools.
GRENADAGrenada's GDP grew by nearly 2% in 2014 and a similar outcome is expected for 2015. Grenada continues to have a very high debt to GDP ratio (over 100%) and in April 2015 creditors agreed to restructure $260 million of defaulted bonds.
The government announced a number of major projects in the 2015 Budget, including a $10 million solar energy scheme, the $60 million Levera Resort Development, The Point at Petite Calivigny, The Sanctuary at Fiji Beach and The Grand Harbour Waterfront. They are also looking to develop Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) for a Medical Park (including a new hospital), the Grenada Aviation Academy and renewable energy schemes.
Reflecting the close ties with China, a direct flight is being planned between the two countries and Grenada is set to become the second country in the region after Bahamas to formalize such an agreement with Beijing. Chinese involvement could involve the speeding up of infrastructure projects on the island such as housing projects and the completion of the football and athletics stadium. Airport expansion at both Maurice Bishop International Airport and Lauriston Airport awaits approval from EXIM Bank, while JetBlue has begun to offer direct flights from New York’s JFK during 2015.
GUADELOUPEAs an overseas region, Guadeloupe is heavily reliant on tourism, particularly from France, who provide over 80% of visitors. The economy grew by 0.7%in 2014 and this may increase to 1.2% in 2015. Cruise numbers are growing and there has been a large increase in charter flights in 2015, while the low-cost airline Norwegian is launching flights to Guadeloupe (and Martinique) from Boston, Baltimore/Washington D.C. and New York City in December 2015.
Major planned projects include the potential Ð590m hospital reconstruction programme and a Ð220m tramway project, while phase one of the port expansion project started in the first quarter of 2015.
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JAMAICAAfter growing by 0.5% in 2014, the economy is expected to increase by 1.5% in 2015 and by 2% in 2016, before potentially reaching 3% by 2019. This has been driven by an acceleration in the country’s service sector, which accounts for nearly two-thirds of its GDP. The government has met most of the targets under a four-year IMF agreement agreed in 2013, although weak domestic demand is limiting economic growth.
The Government is projected to spend $30.5 billion in 2015/16 to undertake work on roads and bridges, provide buses and housing solutions and upgrade schools, among other initiatives. The runway at Norman Manley International Airport is planning a $76 million extension under the Public Private Partnership (PPP) model. Closer co-operation with China has seen Jamaica become the country’s top trading partner in the Caribbean and state-run Chinese enterprises have undertaken a number of major infrastructure development projects on the island.
Significant hotel investment is planned, with over 2,000 new rooms due to come online with a total value of $2.5bn. These include an additional 800 rooms at the Grand Lady Hamilton Palladium Hotel, an additional 520 rooms at the Playa Hotel, 350 rooms at Memories White Sands Hotel, 200 new and upgraded rooms at the Gran Lido in Negril and 130 rooms at the Courtyard by Marriott at Kingston.
As a further boost to the tourist industry, a number of new flights will be added by early 2016. These include an American Airlines service from Los Angeles, South West Airlines from Houston, Frontier Airlines from Philadelphia and Delta Airlines is increasing its service from Minneapolis. In addition, the number of flights from Europe is poised to expand.
HAITIFollowing a number of years of rapid growth since the 2010 earthquake, Haiti’s economy expanded at its slowest rate of just under 3% in 2014. A similar outcome is expected for 2015 (about 2.8%) while this may increase to 3.5% in 2016. Growth is likely to be limited by poor infrastructure as well as political unrest since the parliament was dissolved in January 2015. Haiti maintains a strong construction pipeline of proximately$3bn, with a number of important infrastructure projects such as ports, roadways and airports.
Tourist arrivals were up by 10% in 2014 and this healthy position has continued into 2015, with three-quarters coming from the USA. The new Marriott Port-au-Prince Hotel opened in February 2015 to boost the tourist industry and there are plans for a major development at Cotes-de-Fer, including 1,266 rooms in four hotels in the first stage, due to be completed in 2017.
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MARTINIQUEEconomic activity was subdued in 2014 (0.5% increase) and this will be continued into 2015 (with 1% growth expected). There is persistently high unemployment and the tourist industry has been struggling in terms of attracting visitor expenditure. To help address this, the Aime Cesaire airport is being modernised, with a new hotel and business centre as well as an extended runway. In February 2015, Martinique became the first French Territory to join the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) in order to improve regional links.
MONTSERRATFacing an international crackdown on tax havens which will impact on the financial services sector, Montserrat’s real GDP is expected to grow by only 1.5% in 2015 after a 3% increase in 2014. Moreover, it will be hit by the end of a government programme of capital investment from 2018. The decline in the financial services sector will affect real estate values and construction activity as demand for new homes declines and real estate output also falls.
After a strong 2014, when tourist arrivals rose by 22%, Montserrat has seen a reduction in tourism in 2015 which could be as much as 10%. While tourism from the USA is up, there have been sharp drops in numbers from Canada and the UK.
NETHERLANDS ANTILLESThe five constituent islands forming the Netherlands Antilles - Curaçao, Bonaire, Sint Eustatius, Saba and Sint Maarten – attained new constitutional status within the Kingdom of the Netherlands in 2010; the most significant islands are Curacao and Sint Maarten.
After falling by 0.5% in 2014, Curacao’s GDP is forecast to increase by 0.4% in 2015, with the economic recovery driven by private consumption and government spending. Demand for tourism and international business is seen as mild and continuing fiscal constraints will curb public investment, although government spending will rise due to the construction of the new hospital and investments in the road network of the island. Private investment is expected to grow, focusing on various new projects including the tourism and transport sectors.
Sint Maarten’s GDP is expected to see real growth of 1.7% in 2015, with a recovery in tourism. The airport is planning to expand its cargo facilities with the aim of becoming the cargo hub for the region. A residential complex in Little Bay is planned and an improvement in the facilities for large yachts is underway.
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PANAMAPanama’s economy has been one of the strongest performers in recent years in the Latin American and Caribbean region. Real GDP grew by an average of 7.8% in the six years to 2014, helped by private sector investment and the government’s five-year plan. Ongoing strength in Panama’s diverse service-oriented sectors and further public investment will result in expected 6% growth in both 2015 and 2016, with particularly robust activity in the construction, real estate, transport and logistics sectors.
The $6 billion expansion of the Panama Canal is due to be completed in spring 2016 and will have a major impact on the economy. Proposals for big power-generating, fuel-storage, logistics, and transport projects in the canal corridor are under review by national authorities.
The real estate market has seen unprecedented growth since 2006 and it is a key component of Panama’s economy, with the cost of land showing major increases. Representing 14% of GDP, the construction sector is another dynamic element of the economy. After expanding by 14% in 2014, it is set to expand by 10% in 2015, with the residential market offering the most potential for dynamic growth.
In early 2016, construction will commence on the upgrading of the infrastructure to Colon City as well as creating 5,000 new apartments and public buildings in the area of Atos. The proposed Esperanza project is also due to start on site, providing over 2,500 new homes and associated infrastructure.
PUERTO RICOWith the need to reduce the island’s $72 billion debt and restore fiscal stability (as well as reduce the 14% unemployment level), Puerto Rico is described by The Economist as one of the world’s worst performing economies in its global predictions for 2015, with a 1% contraction forecast and zero growth likely in 2016.
Tourism has been losing out to other islands, although numbers have been rising in 2015. This is particularly noticeable in the case of cruise ship visitors. Overall, the number of tourists visiting Puerto Rico has stayed at around the 3.2 million level reported almost 20 years ago. Poor investment returns have deterred several potential developments and labour regulations are also a major obstacle blocking economic development.
Hotel rooms at 15,000 have not increased significantly over the years, unlike many other islands such as Jamaica and Dominican Republic, but the government has plans to add another 5,000 rooms by 2020. However, the moves by Cuba to attract tourists from the USA (which accounts for about 90% of visitors to Puerto Rico) could have a significant impact.
There are a number of large projects in the pipeline to improve the economy, including the $3bn Roosevelt Roads project, investments by Dow AgroScience and AbbVie in facilities and a potential $120m investment in the aerospace industry.
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ST KITTS & NEVISWith growth of 6% in 2014, St Kitts & Nevis had one of the strongest economies in the region. This has been helped by a construction boom fuelled by a citizenship-by-investment (CBI) program, more investment and spending in the sugar industry, and a recovering tourism sector. The islands have also been able to make significant progress in reducing public debt. The outlook remains very positive, although the IMF expect the growth rate for 2015 to moderate to a still strong 4.5%. It notes that there will be an impact as construction projects wind up and the effects of new competition from neighbouring countries.
Two major schemes are underway – the Park Hyatt, due to open in 2016, and the Imperial Bay Resort - while the pipeline includes the Belle Mont Farm at Kittitian Hill, Pelican Bay Resort, Pirate’s Nest, Heldens Estate Condo Resort and the Prime Hotel and Condominiums. By 2017, hotel room stock in St. Kitts & Nevis will total 2,000 rooms, up from the 1,400 in mid-2015.
ST LUCIAIn 2015, St Lucia will see positive economic growth for the first time in three years, largely due to the upturn in tourist activity. This in turn benefits from the continued strengthening of the US economy. After declining by 1.5% in 2014, real GDP is forecast to increase by 1.3% in 2015 and by 1.8% in 2016. These numbers reflect the impact of the government's austerity programme on economic activity as the country continues to struggle with high unemployment, persistent weakness in the financial sector and low levels of private investment.
Most sectors of the economy showed increases in output for the first half of 2015. However, with total stay-over arrivals up by 5% in the first half of 2015 (due to a 12% growth in arrivals from the USA), the tourism sector will remain a major driver of St. Lucia's economy in the coming years. This is also helping the current recovery in the construction industry.
Expenditure on major construction projects increased for the first half of 2015, compared with 2014, and public sector expenditure on construction is expected to increase as several new projects get underway. The industry has also received a boost from legislation which will pave the way for Citizenship by Investment, expected to help kick start stalled development projects.
Public sector projects include the Soufriere Square, the Vieux Fort Administrative Complex, the Gros Islet Human Resource Development Centre and the Aquatic Centre. In addition, plans are in the final stages for work to start on the expansion of the Choc Gros Islet Highway.
In the private sector, work continues on a number of projects such as Tides Sugar Beach in Soufriere, Harbour Club Hotel, the Unicomer building, Six Senses Freedom Bay (a luxury five star spa resort) and Dayana commercial building. The reconstruction of the Smugglers hotel, at an estimated cost of over US$100 million, is expected to have a major impact on the revival of the construction industry.
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ST VINCENT & THE GRENADINESAfter declining by 1% in 2014, St Vincent’s economy is forecast to grow by 1-1.5% in 2015. Both the agricultural and manufacturing sectors are expected to expand, with livestock continuing to play an important role in the non-banana sector. Local and export demand will assist manufacturing. Recognising the weak performance of the tourism sector, the government announced concessions in the 2015 Budget for the construction and equipping of hotels.
Originally scheduled to open in 2011, the new US$ 300 million Argyle International Airport is due to open by the end of 2015 after a number of delays. It will handle about 1.5 million passengers per year, more than five times the capacity of the existing E.T. Joshua Airport, and allow for direct flights from the United States, Canada, Europe, and South America. The completion of the airport is also expected to motivate hotel and tourism operators to advance investment plans.
Other projects include a potential $6m expansion of the Cruise Ship berth, while the Blue Lagoon Hotel and Marina has reopened after a major renovation project as a port of entry as well as a major complex.
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TRINIDAD & TOBAGOWith its key hydrocarbons sector, low oil prices have badly affected the islands’ economy. Combined with a poor infrastructure, the economy actually contracted in the first quarter of 2015. The new government, elected in September 2015, will be faced with trying to turn around the economy, while working with a budget constrained by the low oil price environment.
Growth in 2014 was only 0.7% and a similar outcome is expected for 2015, although the economy actually declined by 2% in the first half of the year. With lower oil prices likely to prevail for several years, real GDP growth may not exceed 2.0% per annum for the foreseeable future; average growth of 1.5% may be the outcome for the 2016-2019 period.
The construction industry grew by 7.1% in 2014 and while the energy-related construction sector will feel the effects of the downturn in oil and gas prices, public sector building and demand for infrastructure works are likely to remain strong in 2015 and beyond.
A $100 million wastewater treatment plant is underway at the San Fernando complex, while the $1bn Solomon Hochoy Highway extension to Point Fortin is due to be completed in the first half of 2016. It is expected to boost economic activity by significantly reducing travel time and improving connectivity across the south of the island.
Other projects include the renovation of Maracas Beach, Sanctuary Resort, Manta Lodge, Piarco AeroPark and Brighton Port, while the New Point Fortin Hospital at Egypt Village is due to open in January 2018. Construction started in August 2015 on a $60 million distribution centre in Freeport for Unicomer.
CARIBBEAN REPORT
2016
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
CARIBBEAN
TURKS & CAICOS ISLANDSLed by tourism and construction, the islands’ economy has been showing strong signs of growth and the government is forecasting annual growth of 2.5-3% over the 2015-17 period. It has been supporting the construction sector through an active expenditure programme. This includes public sector investment in the road infrastructure, schools and sporting facilities. However, Hurricane Joaquin which has badly affected the Bahamas has also had an impact on the Turks & Caicos Islands.
In terms of investment in the infrastructure to increase tourist competitiveness, Providenciales Airport has been renovated and refurbished and there are plans to expand South Caicos’ airport terminal. Meanwhile there has been a boost from private jet tourists and British Airways is adding an additional weekly flight from the UK.
Construction activity increased by approximately 4% in 2014 and this growth has continued into 2015, with a healthy pipeline. There is a planned $165m resort at Governors Beach in Grand Turk and the 41acre luxury development on Middle Caicos, branded Aniyana Grand Caico, is under construction. Sunset Point Development Company is planning to build a 250 room hotel in Grace Bay and other developments include a 124 room hotel by the Desarrollos Hotel Group and the 280 room Cooper Jack Development resort.
US VIRGIN ISLANDSThe Territory continues to struggle to recover from the severe economic and financial impacts of recent events – notably, the recession of 2008 and the 2012 closure of the HOVENSA oil refinery on St. Croix. However, 2015 has seen some signs of economic recovery, with tourist numbers up by 7% in the first half of the year. GDP growth in the 2015-19 period is forecast to be 0.5-1% per annum after some significant decline since 2010.
The government is encouraging tourist developments such as Frederiksted’s Paul E. Joseph Stadium, and the multi-sports complex on Mars Hill. The planned expansion and improvement in port facilities is aimed at capturing a larger share of the very important cruise ship market.
The 297-room Dreams Sugar Bay resort in St. Thomas opened at the end of 2014 to provide a boost to the tourist industry and works are planned to commence on the Summers End Marina project in Coral Bay. Other planned developments include a boutique resort by the Water Island Development Company and a $275m Golf Resort and Casino project on St Croix by Golden Resorts.
CARIBBEAN REPORT
2016
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CARIBBEAN REPORT
2016
THE MARIA HOLDER MEMORIAL TRUST SIX SCHOOLS PROJECT
The Maria Holder Memorial Trust, a Charity geared towards the alleviation of poverty and the improvement of the quality of life of vulnerable people, is working with the Barbados Ministry of Education to build six Nursery Schools in Barbados and is providing full funding as a charitable donation. The schools are intended to reflect the forefront of Nursery Design with innovative and modern architecture and sustainable initiatives.
Rider Levett Bucknall Barbados has been commissioned to provide full pre and post contract cost consultancy and project management services for all six schools. As a charitable contribution in support of the Fund’s objectives, Rider Levett Bucknall is
providing its services for one of the Nursery Schools on a pro bono basis.
The first of the schools – “The Maria Holder Nursery School @ Gall Hill” is currently under construction and
DIVE CENTRE, ST. LUCIAThe new Dive Centre at Rodney Bay, St. Lucia is the first bespoke Diving School Building to be constructed in the Caribbean.
The project, developed by a private client, includes the provision of classrooms, diving pool, retail outlet,
administration facilities and extensive external works inclusive of a new jetty and boardwalk along the Rodney Bay harbour.
Rider Levett Bucknall provided Construction Management Services on this new build project in the heart of St. Lucia.
The ground conditions, coupled with the buildings proximity to the existing marina presented some significant challenges. However the project was completed on time and to budget.
will be completed in February 2016. The second school Oldbury Woods Nursery is due to commence on site in October 2016.
POINT FORTIN NEW HOSPITAL & REHABILITATION CENTRE
Rider Levett Bucknall has been appointed Project Manager and Construction Cost Consultant on the new Point Fortin Hospital & Rehabilitation Centre at Egypt Village Point Fortin, Trinidad & Tobago. The new 100 bed community hospital will provide a mix between general medical facilities and specialist needs, such as gynaecology.
The new US $200m facility will bring much-needed medical provision to the area. It is being funded through a government-to-government arrangement with Austria; the main
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contractor is Austrian firm Vamed. The target date for opening is January 2018.
It is one of several hospital projects that RLB has provided services on in the Caribbean region, including the new
ESPERANZA - NEW TOWN Rider Levett Bucknall provided Cost Management services on the multi – million dollar design and build new City suburb at Esperanza, Panama.
Engaged by one of the world’s largest contractors, Rider Levett Bucknall provided both strategic high – level construction cost advice and managed the cost of the development as the design evolved during the bid submission process.
The completed development will comprise in excess of 2,500 apartments, commercial/retail areas, local government buildings, police station together with additional University teaching areas.
RLB were appointed in advance of the design team, with budgets being established prior to design commencing. The evolving design was controlled by Rider Levett Bucknall, who ensured that budgets were strictly adhered to and a competitive and compliant bid submission was made.
Edward VII General Hospital, Bermuda and the new General Hospital, St. Lucia.
RLB are delivering the service in collaboration with BBFL Caribbean Ltd.
CARIBBEAN REPORT
2016
21222111
REGENERATION OF COLON CITY, PANAMAThe plan for the historic City of Colon, Panama is the renovation of its many of period buildings, upgrading and renewal of the services infrastructure and the creation of landscaped roads, highways, parks and public open spaces. This is aimed at ensuring that the city is both sustainable and climate-change resilient.
In addition to the work within the existing city boundary, a new suburb is to be created in “Altos”, comprising 5,000 apartments, commercial and retail space, police and fire stations, local government offices and a new court building.
The muti – million dollar project has been procured via a Design and Build competitive bid submission. Rider Levett Bucknall were engaged by one of the world’s leading contractors to provide construction cost advice based upon local knowledge and expertise.
Rider Levett Bucknall provided construction cost advice throughout the design development stage of the project up to and including tender bid submission.
RLB’s role included leading on the bid submission liaising between a local Panama contractor and a large international contractor.
CARIBBEAN REPORT
2016
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CARIBBEAN KEY STATISTICS
ANTIGUA & BARBUDA YEAR
2013 2014 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F)
GDP 1.8% 1.9% 1.7% 2.0% 2.0%
GDP per capita CXD 27,846 28,060 28,242 28,500 28,761
PPP rate 1.688 1.679 1.680 1.689 1.696
Inflation 1.1% 1.4% 2.0% 2.5% 2.5%
Unemployment N/A N/A N/A N/A
BARBADOS YEAR
2013 2014 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F)
GDP -0.3% -0.5% 0.5% 1.5% 1.7%
GDP per capita BBD 3,850 3,819 3,830 3,878 3,935
PPP rate 1.895 1.896 1.903 1.905 1.911
Inflation 1.1% 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.7%
Unemployment 11.7% 15.2% 15.1% 14.6% 14.0%
JAMAICA YEAR
2013 2014 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F)
GDP 0.2% 1.0% 1.8% 2.2% 2.5%
GDP per capita JMD 263,031 264,365 267,614 272,099 277,269
PPP rate 60.543 64.165 68.324 72.261 75.988
Inflation 9.5% 8.1% 7.8% 7.5% 7.0%
Unemployment 15.2% 15.2% 15.2% 15.2% 15.2%
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO YEAR
2013 2014 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F)
GDP 1.6% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.8%
GDP per capita TTD 66,385 67,599 68,671 69,597 70,500
PPP rate 4.4 4.52 4.510 4.47 4.44
Inflation 5.6% 3.7% 2.4% 3.0% 2.3%
Unemployment 3.7% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Definitions
GDP: Gross domestic product, constant prices (Annual percent change). Annual percentages of constant price GDP are year-on-year changes; the base year is country-specific.
GDP per Capita: Gross domestic product per capita, constant prices (National currency). GDP in constant national currency per person. Data derived by dividing constant price GDP by total population.
PPP rate: Purchasing Power Parity rate of exchange. Rate against the International dollar (USD), which renders purchasing power identical to the international dollar.
Inflation: Consumer Price Inflation
Unemployment: Percentage of total workforce
CARIBBEAN REPORT
2016
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LOCATION HOUSES APARTMENTS OFFICES INDUSTRIAL RETAIL HOTEL CIVIL
CARIBBEAN
ANGUILLA T T T T T S S
ANTIGUA & BARBUDA T T T T T T T
BAHAMAS S S S S S S S
BARBADOS S S S S S T S
BERMUDA S S T S T T S
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS T T T T T T T
CAYMAN ISLANDS S T T S T S S
CUBA T T T T S S S
DOMINICA T T T T S T T
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC T T T T S T S
GRENADA T T T T T S T
GUADALOUPE S S T T T T T
HAITI S S S S S S S
JAMAICA S S S S S S S
MARTINIQUE S S T T T T S
MONTSERRAT T T T T T T T
NETHERLANDS ANTILLES S S T T T T T
PUERTO RICO S S T T T T T
ST KITTS & NEVIS S T T S T S T
ST LUCIA S T S S S S S
ST VINCENT & THE GRENADINES S S T T T S S
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO S T T S S T S
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS S T T T T T T
US VIRGIN ISLANDS S T T T T T T
CONSTRUCTION MARKET ACTIVITY CYCLE MODEL
PEAK GROWTH ZONE
MID GROWTH ZONE
TROUGH GROWTH ZONE
PEAK DECLINE ZONE
MID DECLINE ZONE
TROUGH DECLINE ZONE
PEAK ZONE
MID ZONE
TROUGH ZONE
MARKET DATA
CARIBBEAN REPORT
2016
24
OFFICES RETAIL HOTELS
PREMIUM GRADE A SHOPPING CENTRE STRIP SHOPPING 5 STAR 3 STAR
LOCATION LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH
(US$)
ANGUILLA 163 271 136 217 131 244 109 217 271 434 195 271
ANTIGUA & BARBUDA 208 328 177 297 150 270 140 261 291 530 234 297
BAHAMAS 232 414 217 304 152 263 141 222 253 657 142 454
BARBADOS 211 352 191 302 162 251 141 221 241 402 161 251
BERMUDA 329 438 307 416 274 350 242 318 329 438 274 329
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS 271 281 236 347 196 326 163 217 434 597 271 380
CAYMAN ISLANDS 266 390 246 359 256 359 225 308 276 359 235 328
CUBA 300 419 269 389 300 420 215 287 269 420 215 300
DOMINICA 180 193 143 204 181 181 146 181 239 312 192 239
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 115 184 92 150 92 139 80 127 173 346 115 231
GRENADA 266 348 232 289 209 290 186 256 256 348 232 291
GUADALOUPE 244 282 179 261 152 227 174 228 325 445 244 298
HAITI 176 236 117 176 94 153 84 142 176 260 94 153
JAMAICA 176 201 131 151 131 181 100 151 231 352 151 201
MARTINIQUE 245 283 180 262 153 229 175 229 327 447 245 299
MONTSERRAT 171 284 142 227 137 255 114 227 284 454 204 284
NETHERLANDS ANTILLES 240 305 175 273 164 240 164 238 218 436 142 218
PANAMA 174 278 145 242 141 231 126 193 259 389 185 261
PUERTO RICO 246 329 192 274 192 247 110 164 356 438 219 274
ST KITTS & NEVIS 230 330 191 253 165 231 176 232 308 463 232 287
ST LUCIA 207 316 152 218 131 196 153 196 305 382 207 263
ST VINCENT & THE GRENADINES 171 182 137 193 114 171 137 171 227 295 182 227
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO 219 384 197 307 164 274 110 165 274 384 164 242
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS 273 436 196 382 164 382 164 218 245 327 164 240
US VIRGIN ISLANDS 265 386 243 352 209 308 154 220 496 606 331 413
CARIBBEAN COSTS The following data represents estimates of current building costs in the respective market. Costs may vary as a consequence of factors such as site conditions, climatic conditions, standards of specification, market conditions etc. Costs are given per square foot of gross floor area.
MARKET DATA
CARIBBEAN REPORT
2016
All costs current at 4th Quarter 2015
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MARKET DATA
INDUSTRIAL RESIDENTIAL MULTI-STOREY
INVESTMENT OWNER OCCUPIED
LOCATION LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH
(US$)
ANGUILLA 65 131 163 271 271 325
ANTIGUA & BARBUDA 94 177 177 328 291 332
BAHAMAS 131 212 131 253 218 424
BARBADOS 65 186 281 352 352 402
BERMUDA 219 278 284 329 329 438
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS 105 206 195 275 218 304
CAYMAN ISLANDS 174 276 210 276 236 338
CUBA 156 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A
DOMINICA 144 215 181 239 192 251
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 58 87 75 139 104 174
GRENADA 154 208 174 289 255 324
GUADALOUPE 109 174 228 326 261 325
HAITI 36 70 94 142 142 176
JAMAICA 80 141 151 251 251 302
MARTINIQUE 109 174 228 326 261 326
MONTSERRAT 68 137 171 284 284 341
NETHERLANDS ANTILLES 110 164 164 273 218 327
PANAMA 89 160 153 244 194 280
PUERTO RICO 87 132 165 219 219 274
ST KITTS & NEVIS 88 188 220 319 253 386
ST LUCIA 77 164 196 273 218 273
ST VINCENT & THE GRENADINES 74 103 137 182 159 238
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO 110 266 132 219 219 274
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS 109 164 245 382 196 305
US VIRGIN ISLANDS 154 220 198 275 220 308
CARIBBEAN REPORT
2016
All costs current at 4th Quarter 2015
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CARIBBEAN REPORT
2016
CONTACT DETAILS
Cayman IslandsFourth FloorGenesis Building13 Genesis ClosePO Box 1489Grand Cayman, KY1-1110(e) [email protected](t) +1 345 946 6063
BahamasPO Box N-10977Cable BeachWest Bay StreetNassau(e) [email protected](t) +1 242 677 9124
Trinidad and TobagoEleven Albion Cor. Dere &Albion StreetsPO Box 219Port of Spain (e) [email protected](t) +44 7979 686 486
BarbadosAltman AnnexDerricksSt JamesBarbadosW.I. BB24008(e) [email protected](t) +1 246 432 5795
St LuciaDesir Avenue, Sans SouciPO Box 456CastriesSt. Lucia, W.I.(e) [email protected](t) +1 758 452 2125/6
RIDER LEVETT BUCKNALL OFFICES
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