CARIBBEAN, CENTRAL AMERICA, AND MEXICO STATE OF THE CLIMATE AND RECENT

EVOLUTION

Update prepared by the Climate Prediction Center / NCEP17 August 2020

For more information, visit:

http://usregionalclimatecenter.noaa.gov/

• Highlights

• Recent Evolution and Current Conditions

• NCEP GEFS Forecasts

OUTLINES

Moisture surpluses of over 200 mm were observed in Mexico (Jalisco and

Puebla States), northeastern Honduras, eastern Nicaragua and southern

Cuba.

Week-1 indicates an increased chance for weekly rainfall to exceed 100

mm in southern Mexico, southern Guatemala, eastern El Salvador,

southwestern Honduras, much of Costa Rica and Panama and parts of the

Windward Islands. Week-2 forecast calls for an increased chance for

weekly rainfall to exceed 100 mm across southern Mexico, southern

Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, western Nicaragua and much

of Costa Rica and Panama.

HIGHLIGHTS

LAST 7 DAYS

During the past 7 days, moisture surpluses of over 100 mm were observed in Mexico(Sonora, Chihuahua, Sinaloa, Veracruz, Hidalgo, Puebla, Jalisco, Michoacán, Guerrero,Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco, Campeche and Quintana Roo States), southern El Salvador,eastern Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, parts of Costa Rica and Panama and southernCuba.

Much of the Greater Antilles (Cuba, the Bahamas, Hispaniola) experienced less than25%of normal rainfall.

RAINFALL PATTERNS

LAST 7 DAYS

During the past 30 days, areas in Mexico (Sonora, Chihuahua, San Luis Potosi andJalisco States) and much of the Bahamas experienced moisture surpluses of over300 mm.

The southern border of Belize and Guatemala and northern Cuba experiencedmoisture deficits of over 200 mm.

RAINFALL PATTERNS

LAST 30 DAYS

During the past 90 days, moisture surpluses of near or over 500 mm were observedover areas in Mexico (Sonora, Chihuahua, Tamaulipas, Campeche, Yucatan andQuintana Roo States), southwestern Belize, southwestern El Salvador, easternNicaragua, southwestern Costa Rica, portions of Panama and central Haiti.

Areas in Mexico (Veracruz, Puebla, Oaxaca and Chiapas States) experienced below-average rainfall, with rainfall deficits of over 300 mm.

RAINFALL PATTERNS

LAST 90 DAYS

During the past 180 days, moisture surpluses of near or over 500 mm were observedover Mexico (Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi,Jalisco, Michoacán, Campeche, Yucatan and Quintana Roo States), southwestern Belize,northeastern Guatemala, southwestern El Salvador, southern Honduras, portions ofNicaragua, southwestern Costa Rica, parts of Panama, southern Cuba and central Haiti.

Local areas in Mexico (Puebla, Veracruz and Oaxaca States), eastern Guatemala,southeastern Nicaragua and portions of Panama experienced below-average rainfall, withrainfall deficits of over 300 mm.

RAINFALL PATTERNS

LAST 180 DAYS

Daily evolution of rainfall over the last 90 days at selected locations highlights moisturesurpluses in El Salvador (bottom left panel) and central Haiti (bottom right panel). Moisturedeficits are evident in eastern Dominican Republic (top right panel).

RECENT RAINFALL EVOLUTION

LAST 90 DAYS

At 850 hPa, the moisture-laden easterly flow over Honduras and Nicaragua mayhave contributed to enhanced rainfall in these areas.

ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION

LAST 7 DAYS

Week-1 (left panel) indicates an increased chance for weekly rainfall to exceed 100 mm in

southern Mexico, southern Guatemala, eastern El Salvador, southwestern Honduras, much of

Costa Rica and Panama and parts of the Windward Islands.

Week-2 forecast (right panel) calls for an increased chance for weekly rainfall to exceed 100 mm

across southern Mexico, southern Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, western Nicaragua

and much of Costa Rica and Panama.

Week-1 forecast

Valid period: 18 – 24 August 2020

Week-2 forecast

Valid period: 25 – 31 August 2020

NON-BIAS CORRECTED PROBABILITY

FORECASTS OF PRECIPITATION EXCEEDANCE

(PRECIP > 100 MM)